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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Circella, Giovanni; Jaller, Miguel; Sun, Ran; Qian, Xiaodong; Alemi, Farzad |
| Abstract: | This study helps understand how the anticipated emergence of autonomous vehicles will affect various aspects of society and transportation, including travel demand, vehicle miles traveled, energy consumption, and emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants. The study begins with a literature review on connected and automated vehicle (CAV) technology for light-duty vehicles, the factors likely to affect CAV adoption, expected impacts of CAVs, and approaches to modeling these impacts. The study then uses a set of modifications in the California Statewide Travel Demand Model (CSTDM) to simulate the following scenarios for the deployment of passenger light-duty CAVs in California by 2050: (0) Baseline (no automation); (1) Private CAV; (2) Private CAV + Pricing; (3) Private CAV + Zero emission vehicles (ZEV); (4) Shared CAV; (5) Shared CAV + Pricing; (6) Shared CAV + ZEV. The modified CSTDM is used to forecast travel demand and mode share for each scenario, and this output is used in combination with the emission factors from the EMission FACtor model (EMFAC) and Vision model to calculate energy consumption and criteria pollutant emissions. The modeling results indicate that the mode shares of public transit and in-state air travel will likely sharply decrease, while total vehicle miles traveled and emissions will likely increase, due to the relative convenience of CAVs. The study also reveals limitations in models like the CSTDM that primarily use sociodemographic factors and job/residence location as inputs for the simulation of activity participation and tour patterns, without accounting for some of the disruptive effects of CAVs. The study results also show that total vehicle miles traveled and vehicle hours traveled could be substantially impacted by a modification in future auto travel costs. This means that the eventual implementation of pricing strategies and congestion pricing policies, together with policies that support the deployment of shared and electric CAVs, could help curb tailpipe pollutant emissions in future scenarios, though they may not be able to completely offset the increases in travel demand and road congestion that might result from CAV deployment. Such policies should be considered to counteract and mitigate some of the undesirable impacts of CAVs on society and on the environment. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Connected and Automated Vehicles, Travel Demand, Vehicle Miles Traveled, Emission Impacts, Mode Share, Future Scenarios, CSTDM |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0qf4k22c&r= |
| By: | Nourah Al Hosain; Alma Alhussaini (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | The King Abdulaziz Project for Public Transport in Riyadh city is one of the world’s largest urban transit systems being developed. The project aims to meet the demands of the city’s growing urban population while reducing traffic congestion, heavy private car dependence and air pollution. The performance of any public transport system largely depends on its accessibility. Therefore, this study evaluates the populations’ access to Riyadh’s public transport stations using network analysis tools based on geographic information systems. |
| Keywords: | Transist oriented development |
| Date: | 2021–06–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2021-dp10&r= |
| By: | Dowds, Jonathan; Sullivan, James; Rowangould, Gregory; Aultman-Hall, Lisa |
| Abstract: | Safety, mobility, accessibility challenges, and dependence on personal vehicles have long plagued rural transportation systems. Benefits in these areas are widely touted by autonomous vehicle (AV) advocates. Seven mechanisms for AV-induced increases in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) are reviewed here, and five of these mechanisms are expected to have a disproportionately larger impact on rural VMT. There is an almost uniform expectation that AV-related VMT increases must be managed through car-sharing and ride-sharing systems. The landscape of origins and destinations and the total population of rural areas preclude reasonable sharing, and there is a risk of unintended consequences from pro-sharing policies that will limit rural AV adoption or increase unit costs leading to a failure to attain safety and mobility benefits. Designing policies for optimal AV deployment in rural areas requires modeling. This paper outlines five methods that have been used to study VMT changes: travel demand equalization; travel demand elasticity; travel demand models; and stated and revealed preference surveys. The first three suffer from a lack of rural-specific data. Revealed preference surveys are very expensive but may be worthwhile given the scope of the potential benefits to a large portion of the country and nearly 20% of its residents. Alternatively, the more cost-effective, albeit biased, stated preference survey might fill the rural AV data gap. Rural data are essential to inform policy design because rural areas will experience different AV benefits and impacts than are seen in urban areas. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Autonomous vehicles, rural travel, vehicle miles travel, induced demand |
| Date: | 2021–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt4v25q5n9&r= |
| By: | Ghafelebashi, Ali; Razaviyayn, Meisam; Dessouky, Maged |
| Abstract: | Rapid population growth and development in cities across the globe have fueled an inescapable urban burden: traffic congestion. Congestion causes huge economic losses and increased vehicle emissions, which contribute to poor air quality. Over the past several decades traffic engineers have tried various strategies to reduce congestion, ranging from increasing roadway capacity to transportation demand management programs. An alternative travel demand management approach that has garnered less attention is the use of positive incentive programs— rewarding desirable behavior rather than penalizing undesirable behavior—to reduce congestion. Researchers at the University of Southern California developed a real-time, distributed algorithm for offering personalized incentives to individual drivers to make socially optimal routing decisions. The methodology relies on online and historical traffic data as well as individual preferences and routing options from drivers’ origins and destinations to estimate both the traffic condition and the drivers’ responses to the provided incentives. This policy brief summarizes the findings from that research and provides policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Algorithms, Congestion management systems, Incentives, Optimization, Pollutants, Routes and routing, Smartphones, Traffic congestio |
| Date: | 2021–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt7450m33t&r= |
| By: | Leonardo J. Basso; Matías Navarro; Hugo Silva |
| Abstract: | Public transport is central to commuting in most cities around the world. This paper studies the role of public transportation in shaping the urban structure. The main contribution of the paper is to propose a tractable model as a tool to study urban regulations and transport policies in the long-run. Using the classic monocentric city framework, we model public transport as a mode that can only be accessed by walking to a limited set of stops. By incorporating a discrete transport mode choice and income heterogeneity, the model remains simple yet can reproduce non-monotonous urban gradients observed in cities with public transport, and well-observed spatial patterns of sorting by income and use of public transport. For example, it can reproduce an inverted U-shape of transit usage along the city. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ioe:doctra:549&r= |
| By: | Lee, Yongsung; Mokhtarian, Patricia L.; Guhathakurta, Subhrajit; Circella, Giovanni; Iogansen, Xiatian |
| Abstract: | Millennials, those who were born between the early 1980s and the late 1990s, tend to have different travel patterns than the members of the preceding generations when they were at the same age. Among various dimensions of millennial travel, multimodality—the use of multiple travel modes— has important implications for transportation sustainability. Prior research has found that members of this generation travel more by walking, bicycling, and riding public transit. Further, multimodal travelers are usually better informed about and more sensitive to level-of-service attributes of various modes than are habitual users of single modes (especially cars). Therefore, exploring trends in multimodality among millennials could inform policymakers’ efforts to encourage more sustainable travel modes for millennials and shed light on how they might respond to policy interventions. Researchers at the University of California, Davis, compared millennials’ travel behavior to that of members of the preceding Generation X by analyzing data collected from 1,069 California commuters. The researchers analyzed the effects of individual attributes on the likelihood of different components of travel behavior, including multimodal travel. This policy brief summarizes the findings of that research and provides policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Automobile ownership, Mode choice, Residential location, Statistical analysis, Surveys, Travel behavior, Travel patterns, Vehicle miles of travel, Young adult |
| Date: | 2021–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt09x148mr&r= |
| By: | Nacima Baron (LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Gustave Eiffel) |
| Abstract: | This articles presents an overview of terminal railway regulation principles and implementation. It starts with the different elements of terminal infrastructure, how these elements were considered as essential facilities in various periods of railway development worldwide and what type of regulation patterns were implemented. The aim of the paper is to articulate terminal regulation principles and the transformative relationships between State, rail infrastructures, transport companies and other stakeholders. It details regulation conditions for terminals in Europe, with access conditions and pricing schemes for the 27 countries. The conclusions are that, along with slow and heterogeneous pathways to free and undiscriminated access to terminals in Europe, some terminal management entities follow an entrepreneurial pattern and strategically redefine their mission, taking the opportunity of their progressive autonomy from railway incumbents to develop side businesses such as retail activities and real estate in regulated or in non-regulated railway models. Mots clé Terminal regulation, passenger station regulation, station as essential facility, station traffic regulation, station security regulation, passenger station development, station megaproject, passenger station management, station pricing, station retail, passenger flow management |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03231277&r= |
| By: | Thierry Blayac (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UMR 5211 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Maïté Stéphan (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the perceptions of individuals on retrospective rail punctuality indicators to determine the most useful indicator according to socio-demographic characteristics, regular trip behavior variables, and railways transportation habits variables. In choice situations, individuals must choose between four punctuality indicators and an out option. Common punctuality indicators have been selected among those proposed by the authority for quality of service in transport, as well as a new punctuality indicator from the financial literature: Delay-at-Risk. Thus, via an online survey and econometric modeling, we show that respondents appreciate the usefulness of punctuality indicators for planning their long-distance rail trips. The usefulness is reinforced by the fact that respondents employ several modes for regular trips and frequent train users. Moreover, they have already experienced missed appointments or connections. The risk attitude and prudence of respondents also play an important role but not totally in the expected direction. Lastly, Delay-at-Risk, although unknown and more complex in its formulation, exhibits some characteristics that are appreciated by users.. |
| Keywords: | Retrospective punctuality indicators,Information,Rail transportation,Reliability,User perceptions |
| Date: | 2021–03–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03162550&r= |
| By: | Björk, Lisa (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)); Vierth, Inge (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)) |
| Abstract: | Modal shift within the freight transport sector has been promoted by policy makers as one of the means to achieving climate and environmental targets for several decades. The European Union has also had modal split objectives in place since 2011. In the Green Deal the ambition of shifting freight away from road transports is repeated. Even though the literature on mode choice is well established, there is less consensus about the volume of freight with potential to shift and, more importantly, the actual contribution of modal shift to achieving environmental and climate objectives. Based on a literature review to determine the potential of freight modal shifts within different segments in Sweden, this paper discuss the underlying assumptions explaining how freight modal shift is interpreted both as a political means to achieving overarching policy objectives and as a policy objective in itself. |
| Keywords: | Freight modal shift; Policy instrument; Transport; Climate; Environment; Impact; Economics |
| JEL: | R42 R48 |
| Date: | 2021–06–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vtiwps:2021_005&r= |
| By: | Matson, Grant; McElroy, Sean; Circella, Giovanni; Lee, Yongsung |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has caused major shifts in the use of various means of travel, including ridehailing services (e.g., Uber or Lyft). Downward trends in ridehailing unsurprisingly emerged as lockdown orders reduced overall travel. The shock to the ridehailing industry came as the industry was experiencing considerable growth and facing increased regulatory control. Researchers at the University of California, Davis, examined how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the use of ridehailing and other travel behaviors among various sociodemographic groups. They conducted surveys prior to and during the early stages of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic to measure changes in household activities, personal preferences, and travel patterns. The findings discussed in this policy brief are based on the analysis of the information provided by 1,274 respondents who participated in the survey both before the pandemic (2018- 2019) and during the early stage of the pandemic (spring 2020). View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Automobiles, Bicycles, Demographics, Shared mobility, Travel behavior, Vehicle sharing |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt05z1x7m6&r= |
| By: | Karner, Alex |
| Abstract: | Public transit ridership forecasts have long played a role in understanding the potential success of a policy or investment, but their limitations have led researchers and practitioners to identify other performance analysis approaches. Accessibility, or the ease of reaching opportunities, has become very popular and widely used for this purpose. But commonly used accessibility measures also embody weaknesses that are seldom acknowledged; these limit their utility for truly understanding the benefits of transit investments. In this paper, we identify the pros and cons of these competing approaches and offer a third strategy. Specifically, we describe how revealed travel behavior data, potentially combined with near-term forecasts, can provide information about how current public transit users will be affected by a new project. While acknowledging the limitations of this approach, we demonstrate how accessibility can be misleading when applied without an understanding of ridership patterns. |
| Date: | 2021–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:kd6bq&r= |
| By: | Huwe, Vera |
| Abstract: | This paper develops the justice implications of gendered power relations for transport decarbonization. I build on the need satisfier escalation framework by Mattioli (2016) and Brand-Correa et al. (2020) and its account of justice as equality in need satiation. I show that gendered power relations manifest at the level of the provisioning system as a profound gendered division of labor and androcentric biases in the built environment. Based on the German travel survey Mobilität in Deutschland (2017), I document how gendered arrangements in the provisioning system reverberate as gendered inequalities in car access, travel behavior and trip purpose, yet significantly intersect with household income and migration biography. Normatively, I argue that an account of justice recognizant of gendered power relations extends justice to inputs for and conversion rates faced in need satisfaction processes. Building on Susan Okin (1989), I establish that justice additionally requires (i) the intra-household division of labor for need satisfaction to be chosen freely and (ii) equality of opportunity to satiate needs. Androcentric biases in the built environment create gendered conversion rates and constrain equality of opportunity. Consequently, transport decarbonization policy needs to equalize conversion rates for care relative to paid employment when de-escalating carbon intensity to be just. |
| Keywords: | Transport,Human Needs,Climate Change,Gender Division of Labor,Urban Planning,Gender Justice |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifsowp:13&r= |
| By: | Takman, Johanna (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)); Gonzalez-Aregall, Marta (University of Gothenburg) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a review of past and present public policy instruments in Europe promoting a modal shift of freight transports. The identified policy instruments are categorized based on several shared characteristics. To the extent that ex-post evaluations are available, policy performance is discussed, and the evaluations are compared. <p> The study identifies 93 public policy instruments in Europe. The most common type of policy is subsidies/grants to rail and/or water implemented at the national level. Most policy instruments only focus on the promotion of one specific transport mode, which most commonly is rail. <p> Evaluations of policy performance were found for 20 policy instruments. The evaluated policy instruments are mainly subsidies/grants at the national level, or policy instruments at EU level. The bias in evaluation towards these types of policy instruments is partly explained by the commitment to evaluation at EU level, and the need for permission by the European Commission to implement and prolong subsidies/grants classified as state aid. The evaluations differ in methodology and regarding what type of performance indicators that are evaluated. The evaluation guidelines and criteria that exist at EU level are often followed to some extent but interpreted differently depending on for example type of policy and data availability. Thus, comparing policy performance is difficult. <p> In general, there seem to be a more positive performance of policy instruments promoting a modal shift to rail than to waterborne transports. Several evaluations of EU-policy instruments describe a poor or a mixed performance of the policy instruments, while the performance of subsidies/grant at national level are often considered positive by the evaluations. A commonly mentioned factor for underachievement of the policy instruments is problems related to outreach of the policy, lack of applications, long and complicated application processes and a high administrative burden for the companies applying for financial support. Targets for the policy instruments are often broad and general, with a lack of clarity, making it difficult to meet all objectives, as well as to evaluate the policy instruments effectiveness and efficiency. Thus, well-defined targets, as well as better outreach and simpler processes could be one way forward in improving modal shift policy instruments in Europe. |
| Keywords: | Modal shift; Freight transport; Public policy instruments; Evaluation; Effectiveness; Efficiency |
| JEL: | R42 |
| Date: | 2021–07–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vtiwps:2021_006&r= |
| By: | Wenhua Di; Yichen Su |
| Abstract: | Consumers with higher income often spend more on luxury goods. As a result, lower-income consumers who seek to increase their perceived income and social status may be motivated to purchase conspicuous luxury goods. Lower-income consumers may also desire to emulate the visible consumption displayed by their wealthier peers. Using a unique vehicle financing dataset, we find that consumers with lower credit scores value vehicle brand prestige more than average consumers. The stronger preferences for prestige lead non-prime consumers to purchase more expensive vehicles than they otherwise would have. We find evidence that the preferences for prestige are driven both by status signaling and peer emulation motives. Furthermore, we show that larger vehicle purchases financed by auto loans lead to worse loan performance and credit standing for non-prime consumers. |
| Keywords: | Conspicuous Consumption; Status; Emulation; Automobile; Show Off; Vehicles; Auto Loan; Creditworthiness; Non-Prime |
| JEL: | D12 G51 L62 |
| Date: | 2021–06–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:92808&r= |