|
on Transport Economics |
| By: | Ravi Seshadri; André de Palma; Moshe Ben-Akiva (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | Tradable permit schemes (or tolling in tokens) are a form of quantity control, which promise tobe an appealing alternative to congestion pricing (or tolling in dollars) owing to considerations ofrevenue neutrality, equity, reduced infrastructure costs, and political acceptability. The comparativeperformance of the two instruments under uncertainty in demand and supply has only recently receivedattention in the transportation setting, despite being widely studied for emission markets. In thispaper, we add to this literature by considering a tradable permit scheme in a departure time contextwherein users are provided an initial endowment of tokens by the regulator and incur a token charge(determined prior to all departures) to travel in a specific time period. Tokens can be bought andsold within a marketplace at a price determined by a market clearing mechanism in each time period.A key feature of the market model is that the selling decisions of users are explicitly considered,which enables us to study the impact of selling behavior on performance of the permit system. Traveldemand is modeled using a logit mixture model and supply consists of static congestion.In the case of uncertain demand/supply wherein the tolls (in dollars and tokens) can be adaptedfrom day to day (or alternatively demand/supply are deterministic), the two instruments can be shownanalytically to be equivalent. In contrast, when the tolls are not day to day adaptive, the comparisonof the two instruments is performed numerically. Our experiments over a wide range of demand andsupply scenarios show that although neither instrument is consistently superior in terms of efficiency(overall social welfare), tolling in tokens outperforms tolling in dollars when congestion effects aremore severe (e.g. realistic BPR models and steep congestion functions, high demand levels and highday-to-day variability). Importantly, we find that the token system is robust in efficiency terms (social welfare) with respect to selling behavior in the market, although there can be welfare losses in thequantity control system when selling behavior in the market is too irrational (relative to a quantitycontrol system implementing rational selling behavior). Moreover, when the supply of tokens can beadapted from day to day, the permit system was found to be superior in all tested scenarios in whichthe selling behavior of individuals is rational. Finally, even in the case when toll revenues in theprice instrument are equally redistributed (often difficult in practice), tolling in tokens (when tokensare equally distributed) is marginally more equitable in scenarios where congestion effects are moresevere. These findings make a case for tolling in tokens. |
| Keywords: | Tolls, tradable mobility permits, congestion, dynamic models, efficiency, equity |
| JEL: | R R48 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2021-12&r= |
| By: | Cohen, Adam P; Shaheen, Susan A PhD; Farrar, Emily M |
| Abstract: | Since the early 20th century, inventors have conceptualized “plane cars” and other urban aerial transportation. Emerging innovations in electrification, automation, and other technologies are enabling new opportunities for on-demand air mobility, business models, and aircraft design. Urban air mobility (UAM) envisions a safe, sustainable, affordable, and accessible air transportation system for passenger mobility, goods delivery, and emergency services within or traversing metropolitan areas. This research employed a multi-method approach comprised of 106 interviews with thought leaders and two stakeholder workshops to construct the history, ecosystem, state of the industry, and potential evolution of UAM. The history, current developments, and anticipated milestones of UAM can be classified into six phases: 1) “flying car” concepts from the early 1910s to 1950s, 2) early UAM operations using scheduled helicopter services from the 1950s to 1980s, 3) re-emergence of on-demand services starting in the 2010s, 4) corridor services using vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) envisioned for the 2020s, 5) hub and spoke services, and 6) point-to-point services. In the future, UAM could face several barriers to growth and mainstreaming, such as the existing regulatory environment; community acceptance; and concerns about safety, noise, social equity, and environmental impacts. UAM also could be limited by infrastructure and airspace management needs, as well as business model constraints. The paper concludes with recommendations for future research on sustainability, social and economic impacts, airspace integration, and other topics. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, advanced air mobility (AAM), automation, electrification, flying cars, helicopters, on-demand air mobility, rural air mobility, unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), unmanned aircraft (UA), urban air mobility (UAM), vertical take-off and land (VTOL) |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt8nh0s83q&r= |
| By: | Vanessa Angst (Infras AG); Chiara Colesanti Senni (Council on Economic Policies); Markus Maibach (Infras AG); Martin Peter (Infras AG); Noe Reidt (CER–ETH – Center of Economic Research at ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Renger van Nieuwkoop (Modelworks) |
| Abstract: | Switzerland committed to achieving net-zero emissions in 2050. This goal is particularly ambitious for the Swiss passenger transport system, which emits more than one third of Swiss CO2 emissions, and is not yet on a clear emission reduction path. We investigate the economic impact and the emission-saving potential of a decarbonization pathway for the Swiss transport sector based on three edge case scenarios and on a combination of them: (1) improved fuel/engine technology and fostered diffusion of battery electric vehicle, (2) increased capacity use of passenger cars, and (3) enhanced modal shift towards public transport. Our analysis is conducted using a multi-model framework, which interlinks a computational general equilibrium model with two external transportation models. This approach allows us to incorporate a highly disaggregated passenger transport system into the economic analysis. The framework is calibrated to Swiss data to assess the optimal scenario mix in terms of emissions and economic impact. The optimal decarbonization pathway mix slightly increases welfare and lowers CO2 emissions of passenger transport in 2050 from 6 to 1.7 million tons CO2 compared to the reference scenario. Despite the sharp reduction in emissions, a decarbonization pathway based on the considered scenarios is insufficient to reach the net-zero emission target. |
| Keywords: | Passenger transport, Decarbonization, Switzerland, Computable general equilibrium model |
| JEL: | C68 R40 R42 R48 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eth:wpswif:21-352&r= |
| By: | Holmén, Britt A.; Robinson, Mitchell K. |
| Abstract: | Hybrid-electric vehicles are a growing segment of the vehicle market and their share is anticipated to continue to grow as automakers seek to comply with increasingly stringent fuel economy standards. Hybrid vehicles generally use less fuel and produce fewer associated emissions than their conventional counterparts. However, their emissions patterns are unique; hybrids produce zero emissions during certain operations when the internal combustion engine is off, but produce particulate emission spikes when the engine starts or restarts. The overall air quality implications of more hybrid vehicles on the roads are not well understood. Researchers at the University of Vermont collected real-time emissions and performance data from a hybrid vehicle operating in a variety of on-road conditions to develop a new parameter that could serve as the basis for future hybrid vehicle emissions models: the instantaneous hybridization factor. This parameter is the real-time proportion of a vehicle’s overall power use that comes from the hybrid propulsion system, and could be used in combination with known conventional vehicle emissions and operating data to derive more exact emissions estimates for hybrid vehicles. This research brief summarizes the findings and research implications from that work. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Combustion, Energy consumption, Highway grades, Hybrid vehicles, Pollutants, Propulsion |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt74n6z8wd&r= |
| By: | Bushnell, James PhD; Muehlegger, Erich PhD; Rapson, David PhD |
| Abstract: | This report presents evidence that gasoline prices have a larger effect on demand for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) than do electricity prices in California. A spatially-disaggregated panel dataset of monthly BEV registration records was matched to detailed records of gasoline and electricity prices in California from 2014-2017, and the matched data was used to estimate the effect of energy prices on BEV demand. Two distinct empirical approaches (panel fixed-effects and a utility-border discontinuity) yield remarkably similar results: a given change in gasoline prices has roughly four times the effect on BEV demand as a similar percentage change in electricity prices. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Electric vehicles, prices, operating costs, demand, electricity, gasoline, empirical methods, consumer behavior |
| Date: | 2021–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt7p19k8c6&r= |
| By: | Anwar, Ahsan; Sharif, Arshian; Fatima, Saba; Ahmad, Paiman; Sinha, Avik; Khan, Syed Abdul Rehman; Jermsittiparsert, Kittisak |
| Abstract: | Transportation infrastructure is a pillar of economic development as well as a main contributor to climate change. Therefore, it is necessary to transform the transport sector investment into climate-resilient, low-carbon transportation choices in order to achieve sustainable transportation infrastructure. In case of China, this transformation might be necessary from the perspective of the “New-style Urbanization” strategy, and for fulfilling this strategy, policy realignment is required. To address this policy-level void in the literature, we explore the influence of public private partnerships investment in transport sector, renewable energy consumption, urbanization on transport-induced carbon emissions in China. For this purpose, we apply Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (QARDL) method during 1990Q1-2018Q4. Based on the results of the study, a multipronged sustainable development goal (SDG) framework has been suggested, under which SDG 11, SDG 13, and SDG 8 are addressed, while using SDG 17 as a vehicle. |
| Keywords: | Public Private partnership investment in transport, Transport CO2 emissions, Urbanization, Renewable energy consumption, Quantile ARDL |
| JEL: | Q5 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:108160&r= |
| By: | Javier Donna (University of Florida) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a structural model of urban travel to estimate long-run price elasticities. A dynamic discrete choice demand model with switching costs is estimated, using a panel dataset with public market-level data on automobile and public transit use for Chicago. The estimated model shows that long-run own- (automobile) and cross (transit) price elasticities are more elastic than short-run elasticities, and that elasticity estimates from static and myopic models are downward biased. The estimated model isused to evaluate the response to a gasoline tax. Static and myopic models mismeasure long-run substitution patterns, and could lead to incorrect policy decisions. |
| Keywords: | Long-run price elasticities, Dynamic demand travel, Hysteresis |
| JEL: | L71 L91 L98 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:74&r= |
| By: | Andersson Järnberg, Linda; Andrén, Daniela; Hultkrantz, Lars; Rutström, E. Elisabet; Vimefall, Elin |
| Abstract: | A frequent finding in the empirical literature on cost-benefit analysis of traffic safety measures is that valuations of public goods are lower than valuations of private goods, contrary to theory predictions. This study elicits the willingness to pay for publicly and privately provided safety improvement benefiting cyclists and pedestrians, a relatively neglected group in this literature. Our results suggest that there is no significant difference between valuations of a private good and three versions of a public good as long as the good itself is the same, in our case a mobile phone app. The public good versions differ in attributes such as mandatory or voluntary use and private or public provision institutions. . This finding is consistent with the simultaneous presence of both financial altruism and safety altruism, or neither. Public institutions are preferred to private ones in the provision of the public goods, and voluntary participation is preferred to mandated regulation. We also find evidence that attitudes that favor using taxes to fund traffic safety projects, and public responsibility for traffic safety are associated with a higher willingness to pay. |
| Keywords: | willingness to pay,public goods,infrastructure,cyclists and pedestrians,interval regression |
| JEL: | D60 O18 R41 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:853&r= |
| By: | Gazze, Ludovica (University of Warwick); Heissel, Jennifer (Naval Postgraduate School) |
| Abstract: | Concerns about drinking water contamination through lead service lines, which connect street water mains to homes in many cities in the United States, might hinder resource-constrained municipalities from performing important infrastructure upgrades. Construction on water mains might disturb the service lines and increase lead levels in drinking water. We estimate the effects of water main maintenance on drinking water and children's blood levels by exploiting unique geocoded data and over 2,200 water main replacements in Chicago, a city with almost 400,000 known lead service lines. By comparing water and blood samples in homes at different distances from replaced mains before and after replacement, we find no evidence that water main replacement affects water or children's lead levels. |
| Keywords: | Lead ; Children ; Health ; Infrastructure JEL Classification: I100 ; H41 ; H72 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1359&r= |
| By: | Eduardo Engel; Ronald Fischer; Alexander Galetivoc |
| Abstract: | In the last 30 years public-private partnerships (PPPs) have emerged as a new organizational form to provide public infrastructure. Governments find them attractive because PPPs can be used to avoid fiscal check-and-balances and increase spending. At the same time, PPPs can lead to important efficiency gains, especially for transportation infrastructure. These gains include better maintenance, reduced bureaucratic costs, and filtering white elephants. For these gains to materialize, it is necessary to set up a governance structure, that is more sophisticated than the governance of traditional infrastructure provision. The governance structure can be complemented by variable-term contracts that allocate demand risk efficiently, and by avoiding opportunistic renegotiations, which have been pervasive. The good news is that, based on the experience with PPPs over the last three decades, we have learnt how to cope with these challenges. Por aparecer en: Poterba, J. and Glaezer, E. (eds) "The Economics of Infrastructure Investment", MIT Press. Key words: |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:edj:ceauch:349&r= |
| By: | Luis Sarmiento; Nicole Wägner; Aleksandar Zaklan |
| Abstract: | We study the effectiveness, spillovers, and well-being effects of low emission zones in Germany, an emission-intensity-based driving restriction rapidly growing in popularity. Using regression discontinuity and group-time difference-in-differences designs, we show that previous estimates of the policy’s impact on traffic-related air pollution significantly underestimate its effectiveness. We provide evidence of beneficial and harmful policy spillovers to neighboring areas, and increases in ozone due to changes in the chemical balance with precursor contaminants. Policy effects are heterogeneous by season, with greater decreases in traffic pollutants during winter and increases in ozone during spring and summer. Using individual-level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we further find that the policy decreases subjective well-being despite clear evidence of health benefits. The decline in well-being is especially pronounced in the first year after policy implementation and is transitory. |
| Keywords: | Low emission zones, air pollution, well-being, health, group-time differencein-differences, regression discontinuity |
| JEL: | Q53 Q58 I31 I18 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1947&r= |
| By: | Walter, Antonia (RWTH Aachen University); Held, Maximilian (ETH Zurich, Institute of Energy Technology); Pareschi, Giacomo (ETH Zurich, Institute of Energy Technology); Pengg, Hermann (Audi e-gas Betreibergesellschaft m.b.H.); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)) |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on assessing the impact of different policy measures, in particular different vehicle taxation schemes, on the composition of the fleet of newly registered cars in Norway and Germany. For this purpose, a fjeet turnover model was extended by an economic model for predicting tax-induced market penetration of different powertrain technologies. The economic model determines a cost-optimal powertrain portfolio of the newly registered passenger cars based on financial and non-financial aspects. Model evaluation was performed for the case of Norway and Germany by means of reference scenarios that map the current taxation and non-financial preferences, such as range anxiety. The reference scenario in both cases overestimates the role of ZEVs, but is able to reflect the differences in regionalities (driven mainly by the taxation). Considering disutility costs leads to a shift away from ZEVs. Among the considered non-financial preferences, range anxiety has the strongest in uence. The optimization framework is a valuable predictor of qualitative statements regarding the impact of tax measures on the fleet composition of newly registered passenger cars. |
| Keywords: | Decarbonization; alternative powertrain technologies; powertrain mix; consumer heterogeneity; non-financial preferences; techno-economic modeling; vehicle taxation |
| JEL: | H30 O38 R48 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2020_018&r= |
| By: | Massimo Filippini (CER–ETH – Center of Economic Research at ETH Zurich and Università della Svizzera italiana, Switzerland); Nilkanth Kumar (CER–ETH – Center of Economic Research at ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Suchita Srinivasan (CER–ETH – Center of Economic Research at ETH Zurich, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | Air pollution is a grave problem in urban areas of developing countries, with the transport sector being one of the largest contributors to emissions. A possibility to reduce carbon dioxide emissions would be for individuals to switch to more fuel-efficient vehicles. However, a gamut of behavioral anomalies and market failures have been known to inhibit individuals from investing in fuel-efficiency (due to the well-known ‘energy-efficiency gap’). In this study, we use novel data from Kathmandu, Nepal to understand the socio-economic and psychological determinants of three behavioral anomalies, namely present bias, loss aversion, risk aversion, as well as time preferences. In a second step, we evaluate the effect of these anomalies on the energy-efficiency gap in the choice of motorcycles of individuals. We find that present-biased individuals are less likely to invest in fuel-efficient motorcycles, and thus more likely to buy motorcycles having relatively high total lifetime costs. We also find that other factors such as income, as well as having applied for loans, play an important role in determining these choices. Our results suggest that behavioral anomalies may indeed pose as a hindrance to individuals making cost-minimizing (and also environmentally sound) investment decisions. |
| Keywords: | Behavioral anomalies, Present bias, Fuel efficiency, Energy-efficiency gap, Motorcycles, Nepal |
| JEL: | D1 D8 Q4 Q5 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eth:wpswif:21-353&r= |