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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Koster, Hans R.A.; Tabuchi, Takatoshi; Thisse, Jacques-François |
| Abstract: | We investigate what regions are the winners and losers from large transportation infrastructure improvements. We argue that long-haul economies - implying that the marginal transportation cost decreases with distance - play a pivotal role in understanding the location choices of firms. Using data from Japan and the Netherlands, we first establish that long-haul economies are an important feature of modern transportation networks. Then, we develop a simple model to show that improvements in transportation infrastructure have non-trivial impacts on the location choices of firms. While these investments are often beneficial to large regions, they may be detrimental to small intermediate regions, implying job losses. Using data on Japan's Shinkansen, we confirm that 'in-between' municipalities that are connected to the HSR witness a sizable decrease in employment. |
| Keywords: | accessibility; long-haul economies; Regional Development; Transport Infrastructure |
| JEL: | H40 O18 R30 R42 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15905&r= |
| By: | Hayakawa, Kazunobu; Koster, Hans R.A.; Tabuchi, Takatoshi; Thisse, Jacques-François |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effects of high-speed rail (HSR) on the location of economic activity. We set up a spatial quantitative general equilibrium model that incorporates spatial linkages between firms (including manufacturing and services), agglomeration economies, as well as commuting and migration. The model is estimated for Japan in order to investigate the impacts of the Shinkansen, i.e., the first HSR ever built. We show that traveling by train strengthens firms' linkages, but is less important for commuting interactions. The Shinkansen increases welfare by about 5%. We show that extensions of the Shinkansen network may have large effects (up to a 30% increase in employment) on connected municipalities, although the effects are smaller for places with higher fixed costs. Our counterfactuals show that, without the Shinkansen, Tokyo and Osaka would be 6.3% and 4.4% larger, respectively. |
| Keywords: | agglomeration; commuting; employment; high-speed rail; Population |
| JEL: | D04 H43 R42 |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15771&r= |
| By: | Miyauchi, Yuhei; Nakajima, Kentaro; Redding, Stephen J. |
| Abstract: | We provide new theory and evidence on the role of consumption access in understanding the agglomeration of economic activity. We combine smartphone data that records user location every 5 minutes of the day with economic census data on the location of service-sector establishments to measure commuting and non-commuting trips within the Greater Tokyo metropolitan area. We show that non-commuting trips are frequent, more localized than commuting trips, strongly related to the availability of nontraded services, and occur along trip chains. Guided by these empirical findings, we develop a quantitative urban model that incorporates travel to work and travel to consume non-traded services. Using the structure of the model, we estimate theoretically-consistent measures of travel access, and show that consumption access makes a sizable contribution relative to workplace access in explaining the observed variation in residents and land prices across locations. Undertaking counterfactuals for changes in travel costs, we show that abstracting from consumption trips leads to a substantial underestimate of the welfare gains from a transport improvement (because of the undercounting of trips) and leads to a distorted picture of changes in travel patterns within the city (because of the different geography of commuting and non-commuting trips). |
| Keywords: | agglomeration; Transportation; Urbanization |
| JEL: | R2 R3 R41 |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15839&r= |
| By: | Charles Raux (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Ayana Lamatkhanova (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Lény Grassot (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Is built environment the most influential factor on travel behavior when compared to individual socioeconomic characteristics? This paper extends the empirical knowledge by providing and comparing quantitative estimates of these various effects on both commuting distance and mode choice in a European city spatial context, while using up-to-date and novel methodology. Eight indicators of built and social environment are identified in order to characterize clusters of residential locations, giving a rich view of spatial and social diversity of locations. To disentangle the causal effects of residential self selection and built environment, both sample selection and specific matching preprocessing ("coarsened exact matching", a novel approach in the field) are implemented. Regarding commuting distance, the true effect of built and social environment appears modest with an increase in the range of 10-20%. It comes behind individual socioeconomic characteristics such as car availability and qualification. Regarding commuting mode choice, again the true effect of built and social environment is modest, with a nearly 20%pt increase of car share and around 10%pt decrease or public transport share for the most prominent effects, and it comes behind car availability. These results suggest the primary importance of influencing directly car use, if not car ownership, in the European context, while trying to modify the built environment would provide only limited results. |
| Keywords: | Built environment,Commuting,Mode choice,Distance travelled,Lyon,France,Working Papers du LAET |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03010833&r= |
| By: | Ariane Dupont Kieffer (PHARE - Pôle d'Histoire de l'Analyse et des Représentations Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Sylvie Rivot (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UL - Université de Lorraine - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Jean Loup Madre (AME-DEST - Dynamiques Economiques et Sociales des Transports - Université Gustave Eiffel) |
| Abstract: | The golden age of road demand modeling began in the 1950s and flourished in the 1960s in the face of major road construction needs. These macro-models as well as the econometrics and the data to be processed, were mainly provided by engineers. A division of tasks can be observed between the engineers in charge of estimating the flows within the network, and the transport economists in charge of managing these flows once they are on the road network. Yet the inability to explain their decision-making processes and individual drives gave some room to economists to introduce economic analysis, so as to better understand individual or collective decisions between transport alternatives. Economists, in particular McFadden, began to offer methods to improve the measure of utility linked to transport, and to inform the engineering approach. This paper explores the challenges to the boundaries between economics and engineering in road demand analysis. |
| Keywords: | Modèle 4 étapes,Demande routière,Histoire des modèles de transport,Utilité marginale |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03209945&r= |
| By: | Jacks, David S.; Stürmer, Martin |
| Abstract: | We provide evidence on the dynamic effects of fuel price shocks, shipping demand shocks, and shipping supply shocks on real dry bulk freight rates in the long run. We first analyze a new dataset on dry bulk freight rates for the period from 1850 to 2020, finding that they followed a downward but undulating path with a cumulative decline of 79%. Next, we turn to understanding the drivers of booms and busts in the dry bulk shipping industry, finding that shipping demand shocks strongly dominate all others as drivers of real dry bulk freight rates in the long run. Furthermore, while shipping demand shocks have increased in importance over time, shipping supply shocks in particular have become less relevant. |
| Keywords: | Dry bulk; maritime freight rates; structural VAR |
| JEL: | E30 N70 R40 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15956&r= |
| By: | Felbermayr, Gabriel; Tarasov, Alexander |
| Abstract: | The distribution of transport infrastructure across space is the outcome of deliberate government planning that reflects a desire to unlock the welfare gains from regional economic integration. Yet, despite being one of the oldest government activities, the economic forces shaping the endogenous emergence of infrastructure have not been rigorously studied. This paper provides a stylized analytical framework of open economies in which planners decide non-cooperatively on transport infrastructure investments across continuous space. Allowing for intra- and international trade, the resulting equilibrium investment schedule features underinvestment that turns out particularly severe in border regions and that is amplified by the presence of discrete border costs. In European data, the mechanism explains about 16% of the border effect identified in a conventionally specified gravity regression. |
| Keywords: | international trade,infrastructure investment,economic geography,border effect |
| JEL: | F11 R42 R13 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2181&r= |
| By: | Ioannis Tikoudis (OECD); Luis Martinez (International Transport Forum); Katherine Farrow (OECD); Clara García Bouyssou (University of Copenhagen); Olga Petrik (International Transport Forum); Walid Oueslati (OECD) |
| Abstract: | Policy action to avoid the impending societal costs of climate change is particularly warranted in transport sector, which is responsible for 30% of greenhouse gas emissions in OECD countries. To design appropriate interventions in this sector, policy makers should account for the recent emergence of shared mobility services in urban areas and their potential advantages in terms of emissions mitigation. This study estimates the impact that the widespread uptake of shared mobility services could have on the carbon footprint of urban transport. To this end, it simulates the share of each transport mode and aggregate emissions from passenger transport in 247 cities across 29 OECD countries between 2015 and 2050. The analysis indicates that they have the potential to eliminate, on average, 6.3% of urban passenger transport emissions by the end of this period. |
| Keywords: | CO2 emissions, mode competition, ridesharing, shared mobility, urban transport |
| JEL: | R41 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021–05–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:175-en&r= |
| By: | French, Michael (University of Miami); Gumus, Gulcin (Florida Atlantic University) |
| Abstract: | In light of recent discussions about shifting employees from traditional workplaces to virtual employment, we are motivated by the question of whether this phenomenon will end up saving lives even in the absence of an infectious disease outbreak. Motor vehicle incidents are the leading cause of work-related fatalities in the US, killing more than 1,200 workers each year, which make up about a quarter of all work-related deaths. Not only are motor vehicle crashes the top killer at work, but economic expansions can further increase occupational and traffic deaths as they both tend to be procyclical. In this paper, we examine the effects of business cycles on traffic fatalities in the US with a special focus on work-related deaths. Specifically, we implement a longitudinal design across all 50 states by compiling quarterly data for 2004-2012 and consider macroeconomic fluctuations around the Great Recession. Our findings show that traffic deaths during prosperous times are not solely due to an increase in risky behaviors such as drunk driving, but directly related to work. Given the highly preventable nature of traffic crashes, policy makers, public health advocates, and employers can develop effective strategies, including remote work arrangements, to improve both occupational and traffic safety. |
| Keywords: | traffic fatalities, occupational health, business cycles, unemployment, Great Recession |
| JEL: | E32 I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14324&r= |
| By: | Posada, H. M.; Garcia-Suaza, A. F. |
| Abstract: | Transportation policies have an important incidence on the allocation of resources within cities. Therefore, investigating the impacts of transit investment is relevant especially in developing countries where informal housing is highly prevalent and spatial disparities are remarkable. We study the impact of a transit expansion of the Metrocable system in Medellín (Colombia) as a natural scenario to understand the causal links between lowering access cost and informal housing. Using a difference-in-difference identification strategy, we estimate that the expasion of Line H of Metrocable reduces informal housing up to 15 percentage points. We also show that the magnitude of the effect depends on the distance to the intervention. When exploring potential mechanisms mediating the analyzed causal relation we find that the labor market plays a crucial role. |
| Keywords: | Informal housing, Transportation cost, Land value, Informal labor market, Colombia |
| JEL: | R41 R42 R31 J46 |
| Date: | 2021–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000092:019239&r= |
| By: | Sylvain Weber; Martin Péclat; August Warren |
| Abstract: | The user-written command georoute is designed to calculate travel distance and travel time between two addresses or two geographical points identified by their coordinates. Since its conception and description by Weber and Péclat (2017), the command has been gradually maintained and enriched. The new version of georoute presented in this article encompasses major improvements, such as the possibility to specify transport mode and departure time. The new features open the way to a multitude of more sophisticated research applications. |
| Keywords: | Stata, geocoding, travel distance, travel time. |
| JEL: | C87 R41 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irn:wpaper:21-04&r= |
| By: | Martin Huber; Jonas Meier; Hannes Wallimann |
| Abstract: | We assess the demand effects of discounts on train tickets issued by the Swiss Federal Railways, the so-called `supersaver tickets', based on machine learning, a subfield of artificial intelligence. Considering a survey-based sample of buyers of supersaver tickets, we investigate which customer- or trip-related characteristics (including the discount rate) predict buying behavior, namely: booking a trip otherwise not realized by train, buying a first- rather than second-class ticket, or rescheduling a trip (e.g.\ away from rush hours) when being offered a supersaver ticket. Predictive machine learning suggests that customer's age, demand-related information for a specific connection (like departure time and utilization), and the discount level permit forecasting buying behavior to a certain extent. Furthermore, we use causal machine learning to assess the impact of the discount rate on rescheduling a trip, which seems relevant in the light of capacity constraints at rush hours. Assuming that (i) the discount rate is quasi-random conditional on our rich set of characteristics and (ii) the buying decision increases weakly monotonically in the discount rate, we identify the discount rate's effect among `always buyers', who would have traveled even without a discount, based on our survey that asks about customer behavior in the absence of discounts. We find that on average, increasing the discount rate by one percentage point increases the share of rescheduled trips by 0.16 percentage points among always buyers. Investigating effect heterogeneity across observables suggests that the effects are higher for leisure travelers and during peak hours when controlling several other characteristics. |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2105.01426&r= |