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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Volker, Jamey; Lee, Amy; Handy, Susan |
| Abstract: | Induced travel is a well-documented effect in which expanding highway capacity increases the average travel speed on the highway, which in turn reduces the perceived “cost” of driving and thereby induces more driving. This increase in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) increases congestion (often back to pre-expansion levels) and air pollutant emissions, reducing or eliminating the purported benefits of the expansion. Yet highway expansion projects continue to be proposed across California, often using congestion relief—and sometimes greenhouse gas reductions—as a justification for adding lanes. These rosy projections about the benefits of highway expansion projects indicate that the induced travel effect is often not fully accounted for in travel demand models or in the projects’ environmental review process. With this problem in mind, researchers at the University of California, Davis developed an online tool to help agencies estimate the VMT induced annually by adding lanes to major roadways in California’s urbanized counties. The researchers also applied the calculator to estimate the vehicle travel induced by five highway expansion projects in California that had gone through environmental review within the past 12 years. They then compared their estimates with the induced travel analysis completed for the projects’ actual environmental impact assessments. This policy brief summarizes findings from that research, along with policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Law, Highway capacity, Traffic congestion, Travel demand, Vehicle miles of travel |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt14b0x0nm&r=all |
| By: | Riyanto (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia); Chaikal Nuryakin (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia); Setya Agung Riyadi (Institute for Economic and Social Research Faculty of Economics and Business Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Natanael Waraney Gerald Massie (Institute for Economic and Social Research Faculty of Economics and Business Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | With the Electrified Vehicles (EVs) ventures being in the early stage, the cost-benefit analysis of the vehicles is key towards capturing the Indonesian market. As consumers, however, pricing may not only be the costs they consider; they also consider the total cost of ownership (TCO) of the cars they purchase. With that regard, this study discusses the total cost of ownership (TCO) of the EV in the Indonesian context, including calculations for HEV (Hybrid Electric Vehicle), PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle), and BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle), as well as Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles for comparisons. Specifically, this study aims to: (i) identify the monetary factors which affects total cost of ownership (TCO) of electric and conventional cars in Indonesia, (ii) construct a TCO model and calculate the value of total cost of ownership of electric and conventional cars in Indonesia, and (iii) compare the value of total cost of ownership of electric and conventional cars in Indonesia related to the relevant switching cost between EVs and ICE. Our findings suggest that generally, in Indonesia, higher usage and/or length of ownership of EVs lead to more competitive TCO compared to ICE. We also explore a comprehensive number of scenarios (e.g., total annual mileage, years of ownership, price, fuel prices, and cost incentives) in which the TCO of EV maximizes Indonesian consumer welfare. |
| Keywords: | electrified vehicle — incentives — total cost of ownership — Indonesia |
| JEL: | C63 L62 O14 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202043&r=all |
| By: | Zhao, Bingyu PhD; Wong, Stephen D PhD |
| Abstract: | Government agencies must make rapid and informed decisions in wildfires to safely evacuate people. However, current evacuation simulation tools for resource-strapped agencies largely fail to compare possible transportation responses or incorporate empirical evidence from past wildfires. Consequently, we employ online survey data from evacuees of the 2017 Northern California Wildfires (n=37), the 2017 Southern California Wildfires (n=175), and the 2018 Carr Wildfire (n=254) to inform a policy-oriented traffic evacuation simulation model. We test our simulation for a hypothetical wildfire evacuation in the wildland urban interface (WUI) of Berkeley, California. We focus on variables including fire speed, departure time distribution, towing of items, transportation mode, GPS-enabled rerouting, phased evacuations (i.e., allowing higher-risk residents to leave earlier), and contraflow (i.e., switching all lanes away from danger). We found that reducing household vehicles (i.e., to 1 vehicle per household) and increasing GPS-enabled rerouting (e.g., 50% participation) lowered exposed vehicles (i.e., total vehicles in the fire frontier) by over 50% and evacuation time estimates (ETEs) by about 30% from baseline. Phased evacuations with a suitable time interval reduced exposed vehicles most significantly (over 90%) but produced a slightly longer ETE. Both contraflow (on limited links due to resource constraints) and slowing fire speed were effective in lowering exposed vehicles (around 50%), but not ETEs. Extended contraflow can reduce both exposed vehicles and ETEs. We recommend agencies develop a communication and parking plan to reduce evacuating vehicles, create and communicate a phased evacuation plan, and build partnerships with GPS-routing services. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Evacuations, Traffic Simulation, California Wildfires, Transportation Policy, Behavior, Contraflow, Phased Evacuations |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt70p6k4rf&r=all |
| By: | Yusuf Sofiyandi (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Atiqah Amanda Siregar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of this study is to provide and to compare a detailed statistical overview of commuting patterns, spatial commuting flows, and travel-to-work behavior of workers who work and live reside within the Jakarta Metropolitan Area (JMA). The descriptive analysis is based on the results of two cross-sectional JMA Commuting Surveys, which conducted by the Indonesia Central Statistics Agency (BPS) in 2014 and 2019. By comparing the results of two surveys, we find that the commuting indicators have been decreased, except for the travel cost. The average commuting distance and the commuting time decrease by 5,16 percent and 11,6 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, the average travel cost rises by 21,6 percent. Among 169 possible origin-destination sets, a commute route from Depok to South Jakarta has been consistently become the largest commuting flows during the last five years. Respondents who live in Jakarta subregions and commute by private vehicles tend to have a lower willingness to shift to public transport than those from other cities. In terms of the use of non-privately owned vehicles, most of the commuter respondents switch from non-dedicated lane buses to the online-ride hailing services as the travel reliability of certain public transport services within the JMA has been reduced during the period of 2014-2019. Our findings also emphasize the important role of online-ride hailing services in providing better opportunities, particularly for female commuters, to access job locations. |
| Keywords: | commuting — transport mode — travel to work — travel behaviour — Jakarta metropolitan area |
| JEL: | R40 R41 R49 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202054&r=all |
| By: | Anthony D Stephens; David R Walwyn |
| Abstract: | Sales of new petrol and diesel passenger vehicles may not be permitted in the United Kingdom (UK) post-2030. Should this happen, it is likely that vehicles presently powered by hydrocarbons will be progressively replaced by Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs). This paper describes the use of mathematical modelling, drawing on real time records of the UK electricity grid, to investigate the likely performance of the grid when supplying power to a fleet of up to 35 million BEVs. The model highlights the importance of understanding how the grid will cope when powering a BEV fleet under conditions similar to those experienced during an extended wind lull during the 3rd week of January 2017. Allowing a two-way flow of electricity between the BEVs and the grid, known as the vehicle-to-grid (V2G) configuration, turns out to be of key importance in minimising the need for additional gas turbine generation or energy storage during wind lulls. This study has shown that with the use of V2G, it should be possible to provide power to about 15 million BEVs with the gas turbine capacity currently available. Without V2G, it is likely that the current capacity of the gas turbines and associated gas infrastructure might be overwhelmed by even a relatively small BEV fleet. Since it is anticipated that 80% of BEV owners will be able to park the vehicles at their residences, widespread V2G will enable both the powering of residences when supply from the grid is constrained and the charging of BEVs when supply is in excess. The model shows that this configuration will maintain a constant load on the grid and avoid the use of either expensive alternative storage or hydrogen obtained by reforming methane. There should be no insuperable problem in providing power to the 20% of BEV owners who do not have parking at their residences; their power could come directly from the grid. |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2101.01065&r=all |
| By: | Rebecca Vine (University of Sussex Business School) |
| Abstract: | The failure to manage risk in large-scale infrastructure projects has attracted intense debate. Recommendations suggest rigorous planning and once the contract is in place, the narrative of accountgiving emphasises constructing audit trails to assure delivery commitments. However, this can lead to blame avoidance and boundary preservation. This paper develops an in-depth case study of the construction of Heathrow Terminal 2 (T2). T2 was a £2.5bn project on the Eastern Campus of Heathrow Airport that successfully opened on time and to budget, despite an initial risk management ethos that emphasised boundary preservation. This is explored through the lens of riskwork, a form of everyday maintenance work that sustained risk management practice. A process methodology revealed a diachronic pattern of riskwork phases from initial concerns about ‘one version of the truth’ to strategising with a ‘dashboard’ to a final ‘golden thread’ engaging suppliers in risk talk. Progress was sustained by paying attention to which ‘residual’ categories of risk were excluded. As the programme progressed, riskwork became less about managing compliance and more about learning from emergence. This paper demonstrates an important relationship between innovation, learning from emergence and an adaptive riskwork infrastructure. It also describes an important role for mediatory instruments such as dashboards, reports and forums in making risks visible and actionable. It has significant implications for policy recommendations that oversimplify the management of risk into a form of accountability management that mitigates risks by demanding compliance. On a theoretical level it reveals the importance of temporality and path dependency in the study of riskwork infrastructures. |
| Keywords: | riskwork, accountability, infrastructure, projects, residual, emergence, innovation, Heathrow |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sru:ssewps:2020-20&r=all |
| By: | Andhika Putra Pratama (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Muhammad Halley Yudhistira (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Transport development has been widely recognized as one of the major drivers in shaping urban forms. While recent literature has documented the urban-land use effect of transport networks between cities, little is known about the effect within cities. Using the Global Human Layer Settlement (GHSL) data provided by European Commission Joint-Project, this paper aims to find any causation between highway expansion and urban sprawl within the Jakarta Metropolitan Area, one of the most urbanized areas in the developing countries. Employing historical transport infrastructures as instruments, the result shows that areas experiencing the most improvement in highways access are converging slower than those with small improvement. This paper adds a piece of enticing evidence for urban economics literature that highway expansion may not always lead to a sprawling development of urban areas, but it can hamper its growth into a more compact urban form. Our results also confirm the existence of transport-led urban expansion in the JMA over the last three decades. |
| Keywords: | urban development — urban expansion — urban sprawl — transport access |
| JEL: | O18 P25 R14 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202053&r=all |
| By: | Edward L. Glaeser; James M. Poterba |
| Abstract: | This paper summarizes economic research on investment in public infrastructure and introduces the findings of several new studies on this topic. It begins with a review of several potential justifications for the public sector’s involvement in building, financing, and operating infrastructure, including limitations of private capital markets, externalities, and the control of natural monopolies. It then describes the conditions that characterize an optimal infrastructure investment program, emphasizing the need to extend project-based microeconomic cost-benefit analysis to incorporate the value of economy-wide macroeconomic and other externalities. It notes the importance of efficient use of infrastructure capital, and discusses three areas -- procurement, project management, and expenditure on externality mitigation – where further research could identify paths to efficiency improvement. It concludes by identifying several trends that have emerged since outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic that may have long-term effects on the role of both physical and digital infrastructure in the U.S. economy. |
| JEL: | H44 H76 R42 R53 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28215&r=all |
| By: | Shuhei Nishitateno (School of Policy Studies, Kwansei Gakuin University); Paul J. Burke (Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University) |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the effect of diesel vehicle registration restrictions introduced in Japan in 2001 in reducing suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentrations. The focus is on Aichi and Mie prefectures, home to a number of municipalities that were required to implement these restrictions in 2001. The paper then uses this intervention to estimate the causal effect of air pollution on land values. We obtain estimates of the elasticity of residential land prices with respect to SPM concentration of between –0.4 and –1.0. The revealed willingness to pay for the improvements in air quality induced by the intervention in Aichi and Mie is estimated at about US$7 billion. We also find evidence that net in-migration appears to be a key mechanism via which clean air was capitalized into higher land values. The results are robust to a number of estimation approaches and sample restrictions. |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:ccepwp:2101&r=all |