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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Jenn, Alan; Fleming, Kelly L. |
| Abstract: | State and federal governments rely on fuel taxes to help build and maintain roads, bridges, and other transportation infrastructure. The federal gasoline tax has not been increased since 1993 and inflation, improvements in fuel efficiency, and an increasing share of electric vehicles on the road have created a revenue shortfall from fuel taxes in the Highway Trust Fund. Many states have begun conducting pilot programs for a road user charge, or mileage-based user fee, which would impose a fee per mile for drivers rather than a charge per gallon of fuel. Benefits of this system are that it is not sensitive to changes in drivetrain technology to electric vehicles, can be designed to be less regressive than a gasoline tax, and can be easily adjusted for inflation. However, implementing a new tax would have challenges. This policy brief summarizes findings and policy implications from University of California, Davis research that assessed the administration of the gasoline tax, including collection and distribution of revenues, to determine what barriers and opportunities might exist for a road user charge funding mechanism. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Law, Financing, Fuel storage, Fuel taxes, Gasoline, Infrastructure, Mileage-based user fees |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0hx921n6&r=all |
| By: | Paolo Falbo; Giorgio Ferrari; Giorgio Rizzini; Maren Diane Schmeck |
| Abstract: | In this paper we propose and solve a real options model for the optimal adoption of an electric vehicle. A policymaker promotes the abeyance of fossil-fueled vehicles through an incentive, and the representative fossil-fueled vehicle's owner decides the time at which buying an electric vehicle, while minimizing a certain expected cost. This involves a combination of various types of costs: the stochastic opportunity cost of driving one unit distance with a traditional fossil-fueled vehicle instead of an electric one, the cost associated to traffic bans, and the net purchase cost. After determining the optimal switching time and the minimal cost function for a general diffusive opportunity cost, we specialize to the case of a mean-reverting process. In such a setting, we provide a model calibration on real data from Italy, and we study the dependency of the optimal switching time with respect to the model's parameters. Moreover, we study the effect of traffic bans and incentive on the expected optimal switching time. We observe that incentive and traffic bans on fossil-fueled transport can be used as effective tools in the hand of the policymaker to encourage the adoption of electric vehicles, and hence to reduce air pollution. |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2012.09493&r=all |
| By: | Edward L. Glaeser |
| Abstract: | Cities are shaped by transportation infrastructure. Older cities were anchored by waterways. Nineteenth century cities followed the path of streetcars and subways. The 20th century city rebuilt itself around the car. The close connection between transportation and urban form is natural, since cities are defined by their density. Physical proximity and transportation investments serve the common cause of reducing the transportation costs for goods, people and ideas. The close connection between transportation and urban form suggests the need for spatial equilibrium models that embed a full set of equilibrium effects into any evaluation of transportation spending. Their connection implies that restrictions on land use will change, and often reduce, the value of investing in transportation infrastructure. Future transportation innovations, including autonomous vehicles and telecommuting, are likely to also change urban form, although cities often take decades to adapt to new forms of mobility. |
| JEL: | F61 N70 R14 R41 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28287&r=all |
| By: | Schücking, Maximilian; Jochem, Patrick |
| Abstract: | The possibility of electric vehicles to technically replace internal combustion engine vehicles and to deliver economic benefits mainly depends on the battery and the charging infrastructure as well as on annual mileage (utilizing the lower variable costs of electric vehicles). Current studies on electric vehicles' total cost of ownership often neglect two important factors that influence the investment decision and operational costs: firstly, the trade-off between battery and charging capacity; secondly the uncertainty in energy consumption. This paper proposes a two-stage stochastic program that minimizes the total cost of ownership of a commercial electric vehicle under uncertain energy consumption and available charging times induced by mobility patterns and outside temperature. The optimization program is solved by sample average approximation based on mobility and temperature scenarios. A hidden Markov model is introduced to predict mobility demand scenarios. Three scenario reduction heuristics are applied to reduce computational effort while keeping a high-quality approximation. The proposed framework is tested in a case study of the home nursing service. The results show the large influence of the uncertain mobility patterns on the optimal solution. In the case study, the total cost of ownership can be reduced by up to 3.9% by including the trade-off between battery and charging capacity. The introduction of variable energy prices can lower energy costs by 31.6% but does not influence the investment decision in this case study. Overall, this study provides valuable insights for real applications to determine the techno-economic optimal electric vehicle and charging infrastructure configuration. |
| Keywords: | Battery electric vehicle,Total cost of ownership,Stochastic programming,Hidden Markov model,Scenario reduction |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kitiip:50&r=all |
| By: | Fernanda Herrera; Sergio I. L\'opez |
| Abstract: | We present a directed variant of Salop (1979) model to analyze bus transport dynamics. The players are operators competing in cooperative and non-cooperative games. Utility, like in most bus concession schemes in emerging countries, is proportional to the total fare collection. Competition for picking up passengers leads to well documented and dangerous driving practices that cause road accidents, traffic congestion and pollution. We obtain theoretical results that support the existence and implementation of such practices, and give a qualitative description of how they come to occur. In addition, our results allow to compare the current or base transport system with a more cooperative one. |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2101.01155&r=all |
| By: | Tom Worsley (University of Leeds) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether the results of cost-benefit analyses (CBA) for road and rail projects can be compared with each other. Road and rail projects address different transport needs and aim to solve different problems. This does not make comparisons between CBAs for each mode impossible, but requires a nuanced approach. |
| Date: | 2020–12–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaab:2020/29-en&r=all |
| By: | Siyu Chen; Ravi Seshadri; Carlos Lima Azevedo; Arun P. Akkinepally; Renming Liu; Andrea Araldo; Yu Jiang; Moshe E. Ben-Akiva |
| Abstract: | Tradable mobility credit (TMC) schemes are an approach to travel demand management that have received significant attention in the transportation domain in recent years as a promising means to mitigate the adverse environmental, economic and social effects of urban traffic congestion. In TMC schemes, a regulator provides an initial endowment of mobility credits (or tokens) to all potential travelers. In order to use the transportation system, travelers need to spend a certain amount of tokens (tariff) that could vary with their choice of mode, route, departure time etc. The tokens can be bought and sold in a market that is managed by and operated by a regulator at a price that is dynamically determined by the demand and supply of tokens. This paper proposes and analyzes alternative market models for a TMC system (focusing on market design aspects such as allocation/expiration of credits, rules governing trading, transaction costs, regulator intervention, price dynamics), and develops a methodology to explicitly model the disaggregate behavior of individuals within the market. Extensive simulation experiments are conducted within a departure time context for the morning commute problem to compare the performance of the alternative designs relative to congestion pricing and a no control scenario. The simulation experiments employ a day to day assignment framework wherein transportation demand is modeled using a logit-mixture model and supply is modeled using a standard bottleneck model. The paper addresses a growing and imminent need to develop methodologies to realistically model TMCs that are suited for real-world deployments and can help us better understand the performance of these systems and the impact in particular, of market dynamics. |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2101.00669&r=all |
| By: | Soetevent, Adriaan R. |
| Abstract: | Consumption rivalry generates variation in the choice sets decision-makers face. Not taking into account such variation may generate biased demand estimates. It remains unclear how this impacts estimation accuracy because researchers often lack information on temporal variation in product availability. This paper uses information on the exact set of available alternatives at the time of choosing to formulate time-variant deterministic constraints. In an application to the market for public charging infrastructure for electric vehicles, I show that incorporating this information significantly improves the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of individual choice and hence the aggregate demand estimates for local charging facilities. |
| Keywords: | Discrete choice,Preference estimation,Consumption rivalry,Electric Vehicles |
| JEL: | H23 H42 H54 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:228520&r=all |
| By: | Luttmann, Alexander; Gaggero, Alberto A |
| Abstract: | Discounts during Thanksgiving and Christmas are common in a variety of retail markets. Although classical economic theory predicts that prices should increase when aggregate demand is high, one possibility is that consumers are more price elastic during seasonal demand peaks. In this article, we examine holiday pricing in the airline industry. Exploiting a unique panel of almost 22 million fares, we find that fares purchased on a holiday are 1.8% cheaper, supporting the conjecture that airlines price discriminate when the mix of purchasing passengers makes demand more elastic. These holiday booking discounts are also found to be larger in competitive markets, with the largest discounts reserved for flights within one-week of departure. In contrast to flights purchased on a holiday, we find that traveling on a holiday is more expensive. Consistent with peak-load pricing, we estimate travel premiums ranging from 41.6% to 82.0% on national holidays and from 4.6% to 35.0% on federal holidays. |
| Keywords: | advance-purchase discounts, airline pricing, peak-load pricing, price discrimination, sales |
| JEL: | D40 L11 L13 L93 |
| Date: | 2020–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:104863&r=all |
| By: | Jacks, David; Stuermer, Martin |
| Abstract: | We provide evidence on the dynamic effects of fuel price shocks, shipping demand shocks, and shipping supply shocks on real dry bulk freight rates in the long run. We first analyze a new and large dataset on dry bulk freight rates for the period from 1850 to 2020, finding that they followed a downward but undulating path with a cumulative decline of 79%. Next, we turn to understanding the drivers of booms and busts in the dry bulk shipping industry, finding that shipping demand shocks strongly dominate all others as drivers of real dry bulk freight rates in the long run. Furthermore, while shipping demand shocks have increased in importance over time, shipping supply shocks in particular have become less relevant. |
| Keywords: | Dry bulk, maritime freight rates, structural VAR |
| JEL: | E30 N7 R4 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:104710&r=all |
| By: | Korff, Alex |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the relationship between retail gasoline pricing strategies and potential demand. Utilising detailed data on traffic on the German Autobahn and the special case of Bundesautobahntankstellen, the interaction between demand and price competition is studied, as are the changes in competition intensity across distances and road networks. The observed relationships match an Edgeworth cycling behaviour, whose steps appear to be determined by the changes in demand. Cycling intensity and undercutting increase with traffic, while relenting phases are timed to substantial changes in traffic ows. Thus, competition is found to intensify with rising potential demand, as that increases the incentives of undercutting. |
| Keywords: | Retail gasoline prices,Edgeworth Cycles,Regional Infrastructure,Price Competition |
| JEL: | D22 D40 L11 L81 R12 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:359&r=all |
| By: | Ahmad, Zofia; Chicoine, Luke |
| Abstract: | The Silk Roads were a decentralized network of trade routes that connected ancient cities across Eurasia. Goods, ideas, people, and technology moved along the roads for over 1,500 years. Using a detailed georeferenced map of the entire trade network, this paper finds that areas within 50 KM of the historic location of the Silk Roads have higher levels of economic activity today. The persistent effect of proximity to the ancient trade network is associated with increased access to modern transportation infrastructure and the historical diffusion of technology along the routes but cannot be explained by differences in contemporary or historical levels of population density. This analysis is complemented by individual-level data from 22 countries; we find that districts with populations closest to the Silk Roads have higher rates of inter-group marriage, suggesting a weakening of social boundaries between groups that might possess differential technological knowledge. |
| Keywords: | ancient trade network; nighttime light intensity; modern transportation infrastructure; technological diffusion; cultural persistence |
| JEL: | N75 O18 O33 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:105146&r=all |