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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Kristoffersson, Ida (Research Programme in Transport Economics); Daly, Andrew (University of Leeds); Algers, Staffan (TPMod); Svalgård-Jarcem, Stehn (WSP Advisory) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we show that travel cost variation for long-distance travel is often substantial, even within a given mode, and we discuss why it is likely to increase further in the future. Thus, the current praxis in large-scale models to set one single travel cost for a combination of origin, destination, mode, and purpose, has potential for improvement. To tackle this issue, we develop ways of accounting for cost variation in model estimation and forecasting. For public transport, two methods are developed, where the first method focuses on improving the average fare, whereas the second method incorporates a submodel for choice of fare alternative within a demand model structure. Only the second method is consistent with random utility theory. For car, cost variation is related to long run decisions such as car type choice and employment location. Handling car cost variation therefore implies considering car type choice and workplace choice rather than different options related to a specific trip. These long-term choices can be considered using a car fleet model. |
| Keywords: | Long-distance travel; Travel cost; Travel fare; Large-scale model; Demand model |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2020–10–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:trnspr:2020_006&r=all |
| By: | Tong Zhang; Paul J. Burke |
| Abstract: | Understanding how traffic flows respond to fuel price changes is useful for traffic management. This study uses a dataset of 11.9 million hourly observations from 118 traffic count stations over 2010–2017 to investigate the relationship between the gasoline price and traffic flows in the state of New South Wales, Australia. The findings suggest that higher gasoline prices reduce traffic flows, with an average effect size of –0.04 in the hourly estimates. The elasticity is particularly pronounced during off-peak periods, both on weekdays (–0.10) and weekends (–0.07). In contrast, a positive effect of gasoline prices on traffic flows is observed for peak periods on weekdays (0.06). Evidence is also obtained that afternoon peak-hour speeds are faster when gasoline prices are higher, consistent with a lowering of traffic density. The research also finds a negative price elasticity of gasoline demand and that people are more likely to use public transport when gasoline prices are higher. The findings suggest that fuel excise plays a role in both reducing overall road dependence and alleviating the severity of some peak-hour traffic jams. |
| Keywords: | gasoline price, traffic flow, speed, road transport, public transport |
| JEL: | R41 Q41 Q43 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2020-86&r=all |
| By: | Oindrila Dey (Indian Institute of Foreign Trade (IIFT)); Debalina Chakravarty (Indian Institute of Management (IIM) Calcutta) |
| Abstract: | Electric Street Car (ESC) has established itself as an ideal public transport system for urban agglomeration by offering better safety, minimum pollution and conservation of fossil fuel. Yet, India envisions going all-electric by 2030 by procuring electric buses (e-buses) rather than ESCs. The crucial question is, why not upgrade the existing ESC considering that the e-buses need a profound infrastructural development in India. This paper studies the potential uptake rate of ESC over e-buses using stratified sampling data from 1226 daily public transport commuters of Kolkata, the only Indian city having an operational ESCs. We identify the demographic, psychometric and socio-economic factors influencing the probabilistic uptake of ESC over e-buses using a random utility choice model. It estimates that 38% of the commuters demand ESC over e-buses given the alternatives’ comparative details. ESC can be a model electric public transport if there is an improvement in factors, like frequent availability of ESCs and technological upgradation. By promoting the ESC services over e-buses, the government can potentially save on public investment and reach a low carbon pathway cost-effectively. The findings have crucial implications in exploration of the operational feasibility of ESC in the small and medium-sized cities of developing economies like India. |
| Keywords: | Public Transport, Electric Bus, Electric Street Car, Sustainability, Urban Area |
| JEL: | R58 R49 Q56 Q40 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ift:wpaper:2042&r=all |
| By: | Kristoffersson, Ida (Research Programme in Transport Economics); Berglund , Svante (WSP) |
| Abstract: | Connection trips is often an important part of long-distance travel, especially for air travel. Models of long-distance travel would therefore benefit from a more detailed representation of the connection part. In this paper it is however shown that most models of connection trips are stand-alone models not integrated with the model for main mode. A handful models that integrate connection trip modelling into a large-scale transport model for long-distance travel are found and classified into different types using a typology developed within the paper. The scarce literature on connection trip modelling within large-scale systems call for more research regarding detailed representation of access/egress mode choice and terminal choice, especially regarding the trade-off between model complexity and detailed representation. |
| Keywords: | Connection trip; Access trip; Egress trip; Access mode; Egress mode; Terminal choice; Station choice; Long-distance travel |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2020–10–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:trnspr:2020_005&r=all |
| By: | Sulikova, Simona (University of Oxford); van den Bijgaart, Inge (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Klenert, David (Joint Research Centre, European Commission,); Mattauch, Linus (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | Transport has a large number of significant externalities including carbon emissions, air pollution, accidents, and congestion. Active travel such as cycling and walking can reduce these externalities. Moreover, public health research has identified additional social gains from active travel due to health benefits of increased physical exercise. In fact, on a per mile basis, these benefits dominate the external social costs from car use by two orders of magnitude. We introduce health benefits and active travel options into an optimal taxation model of transport externalities to study appropriate policy responses. We characterise the optimal second-best fuel tax analytically: when physical exercise is considered welfare-enhancing, the optimal fuel tax increases. Under central parameter assumptions it rises by 49% in the US and 36% in the UK. This is due to the low fuel price elasticity of active travel. We argue that fuel taxes should be implemented jointly with other policies aimed at increasing the uptake of active travel to reap its full health benefits. |
| Keywords: | Transport Externalities; Congestion; Active travel; Fuel; Health Behaviour; Optimal Taxation |
| JEL: | H23 I12 Q58 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0794&r=all |
| By: | Inge van den Bijgaart; Davide Cerruti |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the effect of vehicle recalls on vehicle transactions in the second-hand market. Using a rich dataset of Dutch vehicle registrations, we exploit the quasi-experimental variation in recalls across nearly-identical cars. We find strong heterogeneities across market segment: vehicles with a lower (higher) list price or some (zero) defects experience an increase (decrease) in transactions after a recall. Based on our theoretical model, this suggests that recalls increase sorting in low-end markets, yet exacerbate adverse selection in high-end markets. Our results shed light on the effect of information arrival in markets subject to uncertainty and information asymmetries. |
| Keywords: | vehicles, recalls, adverse selection, sorting, information |
| JEL: | D12 D83 L15 L62 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8636&r=all |
| By: | Geoff Boeing |
| Abstract: | This morphological study identifies and measures recent nationwide trends in American street network design. Historically, orthogonal street grids provided the interconnectivity and density that researchers identify as important factors for reducing vehicular travel and emissions and increasing road safety and physical activity. During the 20th century, griddedness declined in planning practice alongside declines in urban form compactness, density, and connectivity as urbanization sprawled around automobile dependence. But less is known about comprehensive empirical trends across US neighborhoods, especially in recent years. This study uses public and open data to examine tract-level street networks across the entire US. It develops theoretical and measurement frameworks for a quality of street networks defined here as griddedness. It measures how griddedness, orientation order, straightness, 4-way intersections, and intersection density declined from 1940 through the 1990s while dead-ends and block lengths increased. However, since 2000, these trends have rebounded, shifting back toward historical design patterns. Yet, despite this rebound, when controlling for topography and built environment factors all decades post-1939 are associated with lower griddedness than pre-1940. Higher griddedness is associated with less car ownership - which itself has a well-established relationship with vehicle kilometers traveled and greenhouse gas emissions - while controlling for density, home and household size, income, jobs proximity, street network grain, and local topography. Interconnected grid-like street networks offer practitioners an important tool for curbing car dependence and emissions. Once established, street patterns determine urban spatial structure for centuries, so proactive planning is essential. |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2010.04771&r=all |
| By: | Borzhyh K. (RANEPA); Ponomarev Yuri (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The transportation complex and its development, in particular the development of transportation infrastructure, is one of the most important factors of economic growth. Investments in infrastructure invariably have a huge impact on long-term economic growth. A lack of proper infrastructure development can give rise to bottlenecks, imbalances and a significant increase in the cost of doing business.[1] The transportation and logistics complex and related activities play a significant role in the functioning of Russia’s national economy. According to data released by Rosstat, the transportation industry’s share in GDP in 2017 and 2018 was 7.0% and 6.5%, respectively, and at year-end 2019, it was 6.6%. According to the estimates released by the RF Ministry of Economic Development, from 2016 onwards the transportation sector has been making a positive input into GDP growth: 0.09 percentage points in 2016, 0.01 percentage points in 2017, and 0.19 percentage points in 2018; in Q1 and Q2 2019, 0.21 and 0.19 percentage points, respectively; and by year-end 2019, the annual input of the transportation industry into GDP growth is forecast be 0.12 percentage points. Through the existing inter-industry links, the transportation complex influences almost every sector of the national economy. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, foreign trade, customs regulation |
| JEL: | L91 L92 L93 L99 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1059&r=all |
| By: | Cape, D.M. |
| Keywords: | Public Economics |
| Date: | 2020–10–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ctrf21:305939&r=all |
| By: | Quang Tran, Phu; Thi Quynh Tran, Nhu; Nguyen, Phong Thanh |
| Abstract: | The development of the construction industry is considered to be a significant factor contributing to the economic growth of states and countries. However, many studies have shown that the quality of time and schedule management on civil and construction projects has generally been poor. Thus, it is essential to investigate factors that significantly affect the project schedule. This research aims to examine the practice of time management on a particular construction transport project in a developing country, the urban railway project in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, with its six main lines. The implementation of this project began in 2010, but so far, only two lines have been constructed. The implementation process has been struck by many difficulties leading to the slow implementation of the entire urban railway system. To investigate the main causes leading to project delays, a research survey was carried out in three main stages: (1) a questionnaire was designed (2) data was collected with the participation of experts, and (3) an analysis of the data verification of the research model. Then, the analytical hierarchy process approach was applied to assess the priority level of the proposed solutions to ensure the effectiveness of the schedule of the entire urban railway project. |
| Keywords: | Analytic Hierarchy Process, Construction Management, Urban Railway, Schedule Management, Project Delay |
| JEL: | H43 O18 O2 R42 |
| Date: | 2020–05–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:103532&r=all |
| By: | Nolan, James; Su, Chi; Pizzey, Logan; Peterson, Steven |
| Abstract: | Agriculture in both Canada and the U.S. is going through a time of transition. The vast grain handling and transportation sector in each country is no different. The reasons for change are somewhat different across the two countries, but there are enough similarities to motivate a better understanding of the changes in this important agricultural and transportation sector. It is the goal of this research to explain as well as update the reader about the current and evolving situation in the grain handling systems in both countries. The two national rail systems are currently not very close to being integrated, but there remain signs that this could be a possible outcome from both a regulatory as well as an operations perspective. We let the reader judge for themselves where these changes will ultimately lead in this important and mature industry. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Organization |
| Date: | 2020–11–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uskbpm:307243&r=all |
| By: | Christina Gravert; Linus Olsson Collentine |
| Abstract: | In three large-scale field experiments with over 32,500 individuals, we investigate whether public transport uptake can be influenced by behavioral interventions and by economic incentives. Despite their effectiveness in other domains, we find a tightly estimated zero for social norms and implementation intentions on ridership. Increasing the economic incentive significantly increases uptake and long-term usage. This increase is sustained for months after removing the incentive. The effect is mainly driven by initial low users, which is evidence for habit formation and highlights the heterogeneous effects of the policy. While there is scope for long-term behavior change, nudging might not be the right approach. |
| Keywords: | transport, nudging, field experiment, habit formation |
| JEL: | C93 D04 D91 L91 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8617&r=all |
| By: | Meyer, Neil; Phelps, Robert |
| Keywords: | Public Economics |
| Date: | 2020–10–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ctrf21:305958&r=all |