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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Javier Aliaga Lordemann (Full Fellow Member at ABCE); Alejandra Terán Orsini (Junior Researcher at INESAD) |
| Abstract: | This paper seeks to analyze the evolution of the Bolivian vehicle stock in the mid-term and its policy implications. First, we analyze the relationship between income and vehicle ownership in the country during the period 1970 - 2017 through robust econometric techniques. Based on these results, we use an energy-mix accounting model programmed in General Algebraic Modelling System (GAMS) to analyze how the vehicle fleet and the derived demand of gasoline, natural gas and diesel oil evolved over time. Finally, we observe the trajectory of CO2eq in the transport sector for different types of vehicle categories. Our results prove that the relationship between vehicle ownership and per capita income is highly non-linear and we observe an excessive increase in the vehicle fleet during the last decade. Both of these results will speed up the saturation level of the vehicle fleet in Bolivia. With more equivalented vehicles (EV) on the roads, we expect that the consumption of derivatives will increase over the next years. Hence, we assume imbalances in diesel oil and gasoline production and a lower decarbonization path. Without an energy policy in the transport sector or any energy efficiency measures, the consumption of derivatives would grow 6.9 times and the total emissions of CO2eq would increase 7.93 times in the 2000-2035 period. |
| Keywords: | Car ownership, integrated energy-transport modelling, energy-mix, emissions . |
| JEL: | H23 C25 L62 L9 O3 Q47 Q5 R4 |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adv:wpaper:202004&r=all |
| By: | Eliasson, Jonas; Savemark, Christian; Franklin, Joel |
| Abstract: | When benefits of proposed infrastructure investments are forecasted, residential location is usually treated as fixed, since very few operational transport models are able to forecast residential relocation. It has been argued that this may constitute a source of serious error or bias when evaluating and comparing the benefits of proposed infrastructure investments. We use a stylized simulation model of a metropolitan region to compare calculated benefits for a large number of infrastructure investments with and without taking changes in residential location into account. In particular, we explore the changes in project selection when assembling an optimal project portfolio under a budget constraint. The simulation model includes endogenous land prices and demand for residential land, heterogeneous preferences and wage offers across residents, and spillover mechanisms which affect wage rates in zones. The model is calibrated to generate realistic travel patterns and demand elasticities. Our results indicate that ignoring residential relocation has a small but appreciable effect on the selected project portfolio, but only a very small effect on achieved total benefits. |
| Keywords: | Cost-benefit analysis, land use, wider impacts, land use/transport interaction models. |
| JEL: | R14 R40 R42 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:103085&r=all |
| By: | ITF |
| Abstract: | This report reviews progress on technical standards for heavy vehicles that could enable trucks and buses with zero or near-zero emissions. It focuses on plug-in and fuel cell electric vehicles that use technologies at the forefront of green and inclusive economic development. It includes information on technical standards on charging and refueling infrastructure, and identifies remaining barriers and opportunities for their future development. The report offers valuable insights for all stakeholders involved in the transition to carbon-free mobility and clean energy. |
| Date: | 2020–09–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:77-en&r=all |
| By: | Bruno de Borger (University of Antwerp); Ismir Mulalic (Technical University of Denmark); Jan Rouwendal (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | Most studies of the effects of transport infrastructure on the performance of individual firms have focused on marginal expansions of the rail or highway network over time. In this paper, we study the short-run effects of a large discrete shock in the quality of transport infrastructure, viz. the opening of the Great Belt bridge connecting the Copenhagen area with a neighboring island and the mainland of Denmark. We analyse the effect of the opening of the bridge on the productivity of firms throughout the country using a two-step approach: we estimate firm- and year-specific productivity for a large panel of individual firms, using the approaches developed by Levinsohn and Petrin (2003) and De Loecker (2011). Then, controlling for firm-fixed effects, we relate productivity to a calculated measure of accessibility that captures the effect of the opening of the bridge. We find large productivity effects for firms located in the regions near the bridge, especially for relatively small firms in the construction and retail industry. Estimation results further suggest statistically significant but small positive wage effects throughout the country, even in regions far from the bridge. Finally, there is some evidence that the bridge has stimulated new activities in the Copenhagen region at the expense of firms disappearing on the neighboring island Funen. |
| Keywords: | production functions, productivity, accessibility, agglomeration, transport infrastructure |
| JEL: | R12 H54 O18 |
| Date: | 2019–09–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20190065&r=all |
| By: | Florent Laroche (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Ayana Lamatkhanova |
| Abstract: | The paper explores the effect of the competitive tender for users through prices and frequencies in the regional railway passenger market. The analysis is original by an extended perimeter to seven European countries (France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, UK) and a total of 103 routes mixing market open to competition by tendering with market still under monopoly. Data are cross sectional and have been selected for one day. The method is based on an econometric analysis (Sureg) developed for other modes (air, coach) but never yet applied to the rail market and its specificities in terms of competition. For the regional services where competition is "for the market", the competition is analyzed through a dummy as a threat to lose the tender. Intermodal competition is limited to the coach services (dummy) and carpooling services (dummy). Results show that the threat of intra-modal competition can increase price for users but have no significant effect on frequencies. The analysis country by country highlights a similar performance for Sweden and Switzerland in spite of high differences in terms of competition. It suggests that the ability to negotiate contracts of public authorities and political choices can be more determinant than potential competition. Finally, effect of intermodal competition are weak mainly because of a limited offer. Results show that the probability to find a carpooling service increases when prices of train are increasing. |
| Keywords: | market structure,competition,tender,regional train,Railway competition,Regional Economy,Tender offer regulation |
| Date: | 2020–09–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02930832&r=all |