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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Monica Maduekwe (Praia, Cabo Verde); Uduak Akpan (SPIDER Solutions, Uyo, Nigeria); Salisu Isihak (Rural Electrification Agency, Abuja, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | The “Avoid”, “Shift” and “Improve” (A-S-I) approach is an effective method for transforming an unsustainable transport system to a sustainable one. This study intends to examine the possible impact of the A-S-I policy measures in transforming the transportation system in Lagos - the most populous city and the commercial capital of Nigeria. The study employs the Long Range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model to project future energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions to determine the most effective A-S-I option for the city. We construct a business-as-usual scenario for Lagos as well as sustainable road transport alternative policy scenarios. The results show that Lagos’ biggest obstacle to achieving its emission reduction target is the presence of very old vehicles on its roads. Our analysis shows that emission reduction in the road transport sector in Lagos is sensitive to vehicle survivability rate (i.e. the fraction of vehicles of a certain age still driven). We conclude that unless the age limit of vehicles in Lagos reduces from 40 years to 22 years, vehicle growth rate from 5% to 2% and mileage by 2% per year from 2020- 2032, Lagos may not achieve the target 50% emission reduction by 2032. |
| Keywords: | Road transport, energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, LEAP, Lagos, Nigeria |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:20/055&r=all |
| By: | Alves, Pedro Jorge; Emanuel, Lucas; Pereira, Rafael Henrique Moreas |
| Abstract: | Reducing road fatalities is a key policy concern in several countries. Nonetheless, there is limited evidence on whether highway concessions and Public Private Partnerships (PPP) can bring road safety benefits, despite the growing number of countries adopting this policy to finance and manage road infrastructure. In this paper, we use a difference-in-differences approach to examine the causal effect of highway concessions on road safety outcomes using daily crash data from Brazilian Federal highways between 2007-2017. We find that concessions significantly improve road safety measures, including fatality rates and the number of people and vehicles involved in crashes. On average, procured roads had 15 fewer deaths then publicly managed highways for every 1000 crashes each year, and avoided 16 thousand deaths between 2007-2017. Moreover, these effects are marginally larger for every additional year of treatment but only become statistically significant a few years after the concession implementation. Finally, our results suggest that including safety-based incentives in concession contracts can substantially improve road safety performance |
| Date: | 2020–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:rqew3&r=all |
| By: | Frick, Karen Trapenberg PhD; Kumar, Tanu PhD; Post, Alison PhD |
| Abstract: | The General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) is an open source data format public transportation agency use to share information about routes and vehicle arrival and departure times. A variety of trip-planning applications, including Google Maps, rely on GTFS feeds to incorporate public transit information. In April 2020, the California Integrated Travel Project conducted a Feasibility Study that called for the widespread adoption of GTFS-static (GTFS-s) and GTFS-realtime (GTFS-r) to make transit simpler for California residents; however, there is little research on patterns of information sharing across transit agencies. This background paper highlights findings from an analysis of GTFS use among agencies that report to the National Transit Database (NTD) in California. The prevalence of transit service modifications in response to the COVID-19 pandemic were also studied. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, GTFS, public transit, routes, schedules, data sharing, data communications, transportation planning, transit operating agencies, COVID-19 |
| Date: | 2020–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt1f29b7dk&r=all |
| By: | Xing, Yan; Handy, Susan; Circella, Giovanni; Wang, Yunshi; Alemi, Farzad |
| Abstract: | Higher-occupancy self-driving shuttles could bring about the benefits of vehicle automation—improved safety, parking cost savings, greater mobility to those who cannot drive, and stress relief for drivers. At the same time, these shuttles would not bring the potential drawbacks of self-driving vehicle ownership, such as increases in vehicle miles traveled and associated energy use. Because they can only currently operate in relatively simple and closed environments, self-driving shuttles are likely to be deployed earlier than personal self-driving vehicles in open road environments. However, acceptance of the new technology remains uncertain. Whether people will use these services will be largely influenced by their attitudes toward self-driving technology. Researchers at the University of California, Davis surveyed residents and employees of the West Village area of the UC Davis campus during the three-month pilot deployment of a self-driving, electric shuttle to understand attitudes toward self-driving technology. The researchers then applied existing theories of technology adoption to model how attitudes of residents and employees influenced their acceptance of the shuttle service. This policy brief summarizes findings from that research and provides policy implications of self-driving shuttles. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Acceptance, Autonomous vehicles, Choice models, Public opinion, Shuttle buses, Shuttle service, Structural equation modeling, Surveys |
| Date: | 2020–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt76p2n2qd&r=all |
| By: | Shahbaz, Muhammad; Abosedra, Salah; Kumar, Mantu; Abbas, Qaisar |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the relationship between transportation infrastructure and CO2 emissions by incorporating business cycle, transportation energy consumption and oil prices in carbon emissions function for the U.S. economy using monthly data for the period of 2000M1-2017M12. We have applied ADF unit root test accommodating structural breaks in the series developed by Kim and Perron (2009). We have applied bounds testing approach to cointegration developed by Pesaran et al. (2001) to examine cointegration between the variables. The empirical results confirm the existence of cointegration relationship between the variables. Moreover, transportation infrastructure decreases carbon emissions. Business cycle impedes environmental quality by increasing carbon emissions. Transportation energy consumption is positively linked with transportation carbon emissions but oil prices decrease it. Inverted U-shaped Transportation Kuznets curve (TKC) is found between transportation infrastructure and carbon emissions. The relationship between business cycle and CO2 emissions is an inverted-U shaped validating the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). The causality analysis reveals the presence of feedback effect between transportation infrastructure and CO2 emissions. Similarly, economic activity causes carbon emissions and in resulting, carbon emissions cause business cycle i.e. bidirectional causality. These empirical findings show new policy directions for using transportation infrastructure as economic tool to achieve growth along with sustainable environment. |
| Keywords: | Transport Infrastructure, Business Cycle, Transport Energy, CO2 Emissions |
| JEL: | Q5 |
| Date: | 2020–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:102167&r=all |
| By: | Humberto, Mateus; Moura, Filipe; Giannotti, Mariana |
| Abstract: | This manuscript seeks to evaluate changes in the travel behavior of young children (5-6 y/o.) and their caregivers following the implementation of a 4-month program in public preschools in São Paulo (Brazil) with a high prevalence of low-income immigrants. The program was developed around two intervention types: i) weekly inquiry sessions about urban mobility through the Philosophy with Children approach and ii) bimonthly outdoor walking activities in the surroundings of schools. In this way, it was possible to observe positive changes in the perceptions of children’s statements and in the social norms of their caregivers about transportation, as well as significant modal shifts of caregivers towards sustainable mobility, which were evaluated using difference-in-differences and time-series analyses. Besides the identification of changes in the behavior of adult caregivers through child-centered intervention types, this empirical research enabled unraveling the effect of the proposed measures according to the child’s gender, nationality, and level of social vulnerability, including the significant modal shifts towards walking and cycling identified among boys and out of car and motorcycle among native children, which were significant both in post and follow-up measures. In addition to contributions to the evaluation of school-based interventions with data from developing countries, the discussions presented in this paper intend to provide insights into the role of early childhood and perceptions in behavioral changes towards sustainable transport. |
| Date: | 2020–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9np8w&r=all |
| By: | Pike, Susan PhD; Kazemian, Sara |
| Abstract: | In response to the increasing presence of ridehail services, namely Uber and Lyft, a growing number of transit agencies have formed partnerships with these and other shared-use mobility companies to offer programs that integrate these services with traditional transit. The programs often start as pilots and typically involve subsidizing ridehail travel for passengers connecting to public transit routes or travelling at times that public transit offers limited or no service (such as late at night). However, the number of transit agencies forming these partnerships is still small, and transit agencies note concerns over liability and costs, as well as the ability to meet federal standards, and many worry partnerships may not be a good use of public resources. Transit agencies face a number of service challenges, and partnering with ridehail companies likely offers a piece of the puzzle to improving public transit. Future work should expand on this study and focus on the question of long-term funding. Even those partnerships that have had some apparent success may not have fail-safe funds to keep these partnerships, and other new models of service such as connecting with bikeshare or other on-demand services. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Ridesourcing, public transit, transit operating agencies, public private partnerships, user side subsidies, shared mobility, surveys, liability, policy |
| Date: | 2020–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1xc697xk&r=all |
| By: | Bergantino, Angela Stefania (Management and Business Law, University of Bari Aldo Moro); Intini, Mario (Management and Business Law, University of Bari Aldo Moro); Volta, Nicola (Centre for Air Transport Management, Cranfield University) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the potential impact of airport competition on technical efficiency by applying the spatial stochastic frontier approach (SSFA) rather than traditional model (SFA). The SSFA allows to isolate the cross-sectional spatial dependence and to evaluate the role of intangible factors in influencing the airport economic performance, through the inclusion of the distance matrix and the shared destinations matrix, calibrated for different distances. By analysing statistical differences between the traditional and the spatial model, it is possible to identify the competition effects. This study includes 206 airports at worldwide level. First, the results show the existence of the spatial component, that could not be otherwise captured by the traditional SFA. Moreover, airport competition is found to affect the efficiency level with either a positive or a negative effect, depending on the distance considered in the spatial model. |
| Keywords: | Transportation; Major Airports ; Efficiency Analysis ; Spatial Interaction ; Airport Competition. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1287&r=all |
| By: | Dey, Oindrila; Chakravarty, Debalina |
| Abstract: | Electric Street Car (ESC) has established itself as an ideal public transport system for urban agglomeration by offering better safety, minimum pollution and conservation of fossil fuel. Yet, India envisions going all-electric by 2030 by procuring electric buses (e-buses) rather than ESCs. The crucial question is, why not upgrade the existing ESC considering that the e-buses need a profound infrastructural development in India. This paper studies the potential uptake rate of ESC over e-buses using stratified sampling data from 1226 daily public transport commuters of Kolkata, the only Indian city having an operational ESCs. We identify the demographic, psychometric and socio-economic factors influencing the probabilistic uptake of ESC over e-buses using a random utility choice model. It estimates that 38% of the commuters demand ESC over e-buses given the alternatives’ comparative details. ESC can be a model electric public transport if there is an improvement in factors, like frequent availability of ESCs and technological upgradation. By promoting the ESC services over e-buses, the government can potentially save on public investment and reach a low carbon pathway cost-effectively. The findings have crucial implications in exploration of the operational feasibility of ESC in the small and medium-sized cities of developing economies like India. |
| Keywords: | Public Transport, Electric Bus, Electric Street Car, Sustainability, Urban Area |
| JEL: | Q40 Q56 R49 R58 |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:101000&r=all |
| By: | Domon, Shohei; Hirota, Mayu; Kono, Tatsuhito; Managi, Shunsuke; Matsuki, Yusuke |
| Abstract: | Greenhouse gas emissions caused by urban residents' energy consumption arise from the 1) transportation and 2) housing sectors. This energy consumption depends on the population distribution of the city. This study quantitatively examines the effectiveness of congestion tolls, carbon tax, and land use regulations on the social welfare and the reduction of urban CO2 emissions. Results show that, among the three policies, the congestion toll can increase the social welfare by about 99% of the increase in the first-best scenario, which shows the best among the three policies, and can reduce the amount of total CO2 emissions by about 22%, which is almost the highest level among the three policies. These results suggest that congestion tolling, which is primarily the Pigovian tax for congestion, does not only internalize congestion externalities but also reduce CO2 emissions rather effectively through downsizing transportation distances and housing sizes with the spatial change in population density in the city. |
| Keywords: | Carbon tax; Congestion tolls; CO2 emissions; Land use regulations |
| JEL: | Q5 Q54 R0 R00 |
| Date: | 2020–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:102220&r=all |
| By: | Martin, Elliot PhD; Pan, Alexandra; Shaheen, Susan |
| Abstract: | GIG Car Share is a free-floating carsharing system that began operations in the East Bay in April 2017. Similar to other free-floating carsharing systems, such as car2go and ReachNow (which later combined as ShareNow), members of GIG have access to a fleet of vehicles which they can book and unlock via an app. Once booking the vehicle, members can drive anywhere, but must park back in the home zone in order to terminate their session. The price of driving a GIG vehicle is charged per hour, per mile, or per day, and is calculated based on the lowest cost to the user. This report uses the results from a pre- and post-survey of GIG members in Oakland to measure the changes in travel behavior, with special attention paid to changes in personal vehicle use that occurred as a result of joining GIG. The pre-survey (N = 362) was conducted in December 2017 and the postsurvey (N = 221) was conducted in January 2019. The demographics of GIG survey respondents in Oakland are similar to previous findings from evaluations of shared mobility in other cities. The sample of post-survey respondents was younger than the general Oakland population, with 50% of the sample under the age of 34 compared to 36% for the general population. The survey sample was also highly educated; 88% of respondents have at least a 4- year college degree, compared to only 40% in the general population. Income distribution was relatively similar, though GIG survey respondents had a slightly higher income than the rest of Oakland. However, the race/ethnicity distribution was more imbalanced, where 60% of survey respondents were White, while only 27% of the Oakland population is White. African Americans and Hispanic/Latinos were relatively underrepresented; 12% of survey respondents were African American compared to 23% of the Oakland population and 7% of survey respondents were Hispanic/Latino compared to 30% of the population. Table 1 presents a distribution of demographics for key attributes. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2020–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt3j722968&r=all |
| By: | Isiaq O. Oseni (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ogun State, Nigeria); Ibrahim A. Adekunle (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ogun State, Nigeria); Ayomide O. Ogunade (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ogun State, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | In spite of the massive revenue emanating from oil wealth, the successive government of Nigeria failed to give to its citizenry the dividend of democracy owing in large part to their inability to establish a market clearing situation because of inadequate linkage between the sources and the markets (transport infrastructures). An enquiry into the cause and potential solutions to the problems of transport infrastructure development in Nigeria informed the need to regress indices of fiscal vulnerability on the indicator of transport infrastructure development in Nigeria from 1986 through 2017 using the dynamic ordinary least squares regression technique. Results show that high-levelfiscal vulnerability deters optimal government expenditure on transport infrastructure development in Nigeria. Based on the findings of the study, itis recommended that government should do more to block all leakages of fiscal revenues and subsequently ensure that more allocation is channelled into transporting infrastructure development because of its forward and backward linkages. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Vulnerability; Transport Infrastructure Development; Nigeria |
| JEL: | H5 E44 H12 R4 |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:20/051&r=all |
| By: | Raju, Arun; Vu, Alexander |
| Abstract: | Significant electrification of the transportation sector is necessary for the State to achieve several important greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction and renewable energy targets. The State’s electricity generation and transmission capabilities must increase in order to meet the demand generated by increasing levels of fleet electrification. The increased demand, combined with the Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS) targets will require significantly increased energy storage capabilities that can accommodate demand while integrating renewable power sources into the grid. This project evaluated the mid to long-term energy storage needs of the electric grid for select fleet electrification scenarios. The analysis was conducted using Resolve, a power systems planning model, for RPS targets of 60% and 80% by 2030 and 2042 respectively. The results show that Electrical Energy Storage (EES) capacity requirements depend on a number of parameters, including Demand Response (DR), Electric Vehicle (EV) charging flexibility, and total EV population. The EES requirements for the 60% RPS scenarios range from 3.9 to 4.3 GW while for the 80% RPS scenarios, the range is from 18.5 to 20.4 GW. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Energy Storage Capacity, Electrification, Energy Storage |
| Date: | 2020–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt4t918623&r=all |
| By: | Yannis Kerkemezos (CPB Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis); Bas Karreman (Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | We empirically test the hypothesis that the discounts offered by firms to consumers who purchase tickets in advance increase with the intensity of competition. We develop a new measure of competition for which we use the proximity (in departure time) of a given flight to its competitors to infer the intensity of competition and estimate the impact of competition on advance purchase discounts (APDs) and the dynamic pricing of airlines by exploiting plausibly exogenous changes in the flight schedules of airlines that occur during the booking period. We find strong support for the theoretical prediction that APDs are larger when the intensity of competition is higher using a sample of airline fare quotes. Our results also suggest that airline price dispersion increases with the intensity of competition. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic pricing, advance purchase discounts, price discrimination, oligopoly, airlines |
| JEL: | D43 D22 L1 L9 |
| Date: | 2020–07–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20200042&r=all |
| By: | Chiara Pancotti (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies); Matteo Pedralli (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies); Geert Smit (Ecorys); Silvia Vignetti (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies) |
| Abstract: | Despite extensive convergence on the methodologies for transport project appraisal, the actual performance of transport infrastructures frequently differs from ex-ante forecasts. Among the possible reasons for this discrepancy, there are technical and institutional aspects. Technical reasons point to lacking data, failure to identify effects generated by the project, impossibility to include certain effects in the analysis. Institutional ones include strategic misrepresentations by project promoters, absence of incentives for the private and public sector to avoid optimism bias and reveal true information about the project, path dependency. This paper adopts a conceptual framework for the analysis of transport project appraisal systems, based on relevant literature and illustrated through good practices from different countries and international organisations. The framework’s illustration highlights how an appropriate institutional setting is instrumental for the proper use of transport project appraisal and its performance. The paper argues that embedding transport project appraisal in a formalised institutional setting is important to ensuring more transparency in public investment decision making and reducing uncertainties stemming from arbitrary or biased decision processes. Further, a robust institutional setting can increase the solidity and comparability of appraisal results, as well as ensure that these results feed into the decision-making process. |
| Keywords: | Cost-Benefit analysis, project appraisal, transport project, decision-making process |
| JEL: | D61 H43 O18 R42 G11 |
| Date: | 2020–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mst:wpaper:201902&r=all |