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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Massimo Filippini (Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH), ETH Zurich, Switzerland and Universita della Svizzera italiana, Switzerland); Nilkanth Kumar (Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH), ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Suchita Srinivasan (Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH), ETH Zurich, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | Addressing hazardous levels of air pollution in densely-populated cities in emerging countries requires concerted efforts to reduce fossil fuel use, especially in the transport sector. Given that motorcycles comprise almost 80% of vehicle sales in Nepal, a viable alternative to reduce air pollution is driving more fuel-efficient electric alternatives. However, their adoption has been limited due to a gamut of market failures and behavioral anomalies. In this study, we collect rich data on preferences, socio-economic factors and biases of more than 2,000 potential motorcycle buyers in the Kathmandu valley in Nepal. Using a stated choice experiment with randomized information treatments, we evaluate the role of specific behavioral anomalies in determining the stated-preference of consumers on whether they would be willing to buy an electric motorcycle. We find evidence to suggest that cognitive/skills limitations, framing of information, and the affect heuristic play a role in determining the stated-preference of respondents. In particular, displaying qualitative information on the air pollution impact of their choices, and “priming” them through impactful photographs and texts could have a positive effect. Furthermore, the results also hint at the importance of gender, health status and cognitive skills in determining the effectiveness of these nudges in promoting the adoption of electric alternatives. Implications of this study relate to policy choice in settings similar to Kathmandu, where fuel-inefficient vehicles are preferred and widely used, and the negative externalities due to air pollution are very stark. |
| Keywords: | Market failures, Behavioral anomalies, Electric vehicles, Stated-choice experiment, Nepal |
| JEL: | D1 D8 Q4 Q5 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eth:wpswif:20-333&r=all |
| By: | Grembek, Offer PhD; Chen, Katherine; Taylor, Brian D. PhD; Hwang, Yu Hong; Fitch, Dillon PhD; Anthoine, Sonia; Chen, Bingchu; Grover, Salvador |
| Abstract: | This research synthesis consists of a set of white papers that jointly provide a review of research on the current practicefor setting speed limits and future opportunities to improve roadway safety. This synthesis was developed to inform thework of the Zero Traffic Fatalities Task Force, which was formed in 2019 by the California State Transportation Agencyin response to California Assembly Bill 2363 (Friedman). The statutory goal of the Task Force is to develop a structured,coordinated process for early engagement of all parties to develop policies to reduce traffic fatalities to zero. Thisreport addresses the following critical issues related to the work of the Task Force: (i) the relationship between trafficspeed and safety; (ii) lack of empirical justification for continuing to use the 85th percentile rule; (iii) why we need toreconsider current speed limit setting practices; (iv) promising alternatives to current methods of setting speed limits;and (v) improving road designs to increase road user safety. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Vision Zero, 85th percentile speed, highway safety, speed limits, safety engineering, crash risk forecasting, traffic crashes, highway design |
| Date: | 2020–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt5hg5m6sm&r=all |
| By: | Moreno, L. E; Gallego, J.A.; Vargas, J. F |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impact of rural roads on armed conflict and illicit crops in Colombia over a fourteen year period of rapid growth of road investments. We estimate the causal impact of these interventions using micro-data of the royalties revenues to the transport sector at the municipal level, and implement a strategy of Difference-in-Differences with staggered adoption. The results show that new rural roads, in particular small projects known as placa-huella, have a positive causal effect on armed conflict and on coca crops. These unintended effects of road provision are mainly driven by the intensification of violence in wealthier municipalities. In these places, we find that the new connectivity leads to an increase in the production of legal crops. Hence, wealthier municipalities are more attractive to armed groups and more vulnerable to attacks that seek to expropriate these new rents. In addition, the institutional background seems to be determinant in the sign of the effect: in municipalities with qualified and stable institutions, road provision mitigates the development of illegal activity. These results highlight the importance of providing public goods in parallel with strengthening the local state capacity through reliable institutions. |
| Keywords: | Roads, Public Goods, Armed Conflict, Illegal Economies, Royalties |
| JEL: | H41 H54 O12 D2 D74 O11 O4 R4 |
| Date: | 2020–05–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000092:018154&r=all |
| By: | Wenjuan Hou; Tao Fang; Zhi Pei; Qiao-Chu He |
| Abstract: | The real challenge in drone-logistics is to develop an economically-feasible Unmanned Aerial Mobility Network (UAMN). In this paper, we propose an integrated airport location (strategic decision) and routes planning (operational decision) optimization framework to minimize the total cost of the network, while guaranteeing flow constraints, capacity constraints, and electricity constraints. To facility expensive long-term infrastructure planning facing demand uncertainty, we develop a data-driven risk-averse two-stage stochastic optimization model based on the Wasserstein distance. We develop a reformulation technique which simplifies the worst-case expectation term in the original model, and obtain a fractable Min-Max solution procedure correspondingly. Using Lagrange multipliers, we successfully decompose decision variables and reduce the complexity of computation. To provide managerial insights, we design specific numerical examples. For example, we find that the optimal network configuration is affected by the "pooling effects" in channel capacities. A nice feature of our DRO framework is that the optimal network design is relatively robust under demand uncertainty. Interestingly, a candidate node without historical demand records can be chosen to locate an airport. We demonstrate the application of our model for a real medical resources transportation problem with our industry partner, collecting donated blood to a blood bank in Hangzhou, China. |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2004.13000&r=all |
| By: | Brodeur, Abel (University of Ottawa); Cook, Nikolai (University of Ottawa); Wright, Taylor (University of Ottawa) |
| Abstract: | In response to COVID-19, dramatic safer-at-home policies were implemented. The understanding of their impacts on social distancing, travel and pollution is in its infancy. We pair a differences-in-differences framework and synthetic control methods with rich cellular tracking and high frequency air pollution data. We find that state and U.S. county safer-at-home policies are successful in encouraging social distance; beginning the day of the policy trips outside the home are sharply decreased while time in residence rises sharply. With less vehicle traffic, we find: a 50% reduction in vehicular collisions; an approximately 25% reduction in Particulate Matter (PM2.5) concentrations; and a reduction of the incidence of county-days with an air quality index of code yellow or above by two-thirds. We calculate that the benefits from avoided car collisions could range from $7 billion to $24 billion while the benefits from reduced pollution could range from $650 million to $13.8 billion. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, safer-at-home, lockdowns, pollution, traffic, car crashes |
| JEL: | P48 Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13255&r=all |
| By: | Jiang, Gege; Fosgerau, Mogens; Lo, Hong |
| Abstract: | This paper sets up a rational inattention model for the route choice problem in a stochastic network where travelers face random travel time. Previous research has assumed that travelers incorporate all provided information without effort. This study assumes that information is costly and that travelers rationally choose how much information to acquire prior to choosing route. We begin with a single traveler and then extend the model to heterogeneous travelers where rationally inattentive user equilibrium (RIUE) is achieved. From the perspective of a single traveler, more information always reduces the impact of travel time variability and increases the probability of choosing a less costly route. However, in RIUE, more information may reduce the social welfare in some scenarios. |
| Keywords: | Rational inattention; Travel time variability; Imperfect information; Information strategy; Discrete choice |
| JEL: | D8 R4 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:99944&r=all |
| By: | Mishra, Shekhar; Sinha, Avik; Sharif, Arshian; Mohd Suki, Norazah |
| Abstract: | The present paper endeavors to analyze and provide fresh insights from the dynamic association between tourism, transportation, economic growth and carbon emission in the United States. The analysis employs a novel Morlet’s Wavelet Approach. Precisely, the paper implements Partial and Multiple Wavelet Coherence techniques to the monthly data spanning from 2001-2017. From the frequency domain point of view, the study discovers remarkable wavelet coherence and robust lead and lag linkages. The analysis discovers significant progress in variables over frequency and time. The variables display strong but inconsistent associations between them. There exist a strong co-movement among the variables considered, which is not equal across the time scales. The study may help the policymakers and regulars to devise strategies and formulate policies pertaining to tourism development, which can contribute towards environmentally sustainable economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Tourism; Transportation; CO2 Emissions; Partial Wavelet Coherence; Multiple Wavelet Coherence |
| JEL: | L8 L83 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:99984&r=all |
| By: | Steve Cicala; Stephen P. Holland; Erin T. Mansur; Nicholas Z. Muller; Andrew J. Yates |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in stay-at-home policies and other social distancing behaviors in the United States in spring of 2020. This paper examines the impact that these actions had on emissions and expected health effects through reduced personal vehicle travel and electricity consumption. Using daily cell phone mobility data for each U.S. county, we find that vehicle travel dropped about 40% by mid-April across the nation. States that imposed stay-at-home policies before March 28 decreased travel slightly more than other states, but travel in all states decreased significantly. Using data on hourly electricity consumption by electricity region (e.g., balancing authority), we find that electricity consumption fell about six percent on average by mid-April with substantial heterogeneity. Given these decreases in travel and electricity use, we estimate the county-level expected improvements in air quality, and therefore expected declines in mortality. Overall, we estimate that, for a month of social distancing, the expected premature deaths due to air pollution from personal vehicle travel and electricity consumption declined by approximately 360 deaths, or about 25% of the baseline 1500 deaths. In addition, we estimate that CO2 emissions from these sources fell by 46 million metric tons (a reduction of approximately 19%) over the same time frame. |
| JEL: | Q4 Q5 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27135&r=all |