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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Fulton, Lew PhD; Brown, Austin PhD; Compostella, Junia |
| Abstract: | The emergence of “3 Revolutions” in transportation (automation, electrification and shared mobility) presents a range of questions regarding how consumers will travel in the future, and under what conditions there may be rapid adoption of various services. These include individual on-demand taxi-style services, shared mobility in pooled services, and use of public transit, all with or without drivers. There is now enough data and estimates on the costs of these service combinations, and in some cases ridership data, to consider how consumers are making choices and could do so in the future as things evolve. This project involved: (a) reviewing existing literature and data on consumer mode and vehicle choice; (b) developing new “generalized cost” estimates that combine monetary and non-monetary (e.g., hedonic) components of travel choice, notably incorporating value of time; and (c) conducting a comparison of monetary and generalized trip cost for a range of trip types across travel options in the near term (2020) and longer term (2030-35). Three main travel options were considered: privately owned vehicles, ridesourced solo trips, and ridesourced pooled trips. Consideration of internal combustion vs. battery electric and, in the longer term, automated technology was also core to the analysis. The trips considered include urban and suburban types in the San Francisco metro area, using actual trip characteristics. The results suggest that in the near-term, solo ridesourcing is likely to be perceived as significantly more expensive (in terms of monetary and time costs) than pooled ridesourcing or solo private vehicle trips except for those with a very high value of time. Solo ridesourcing does better in dense, slow, urban trips than in faster suburban trips. In the longer term, with automated driverless vehicles, solo ridesourcing could become the cheapest mode for many travelers in a range of situations. This report includes an initial consideration of the implications of these policies for affecting travel choices, presumably to push choices toward pooled ridesourcing as a sustainable option. VMT-based pricing, pricing that could be adjusted with vehicle occupancy, and parking-related approaches are described. A large price signal might be needed to shift travel, given some of the differences in generalized cost found in this analysis. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Ridesourcing, ridesharing, vehicle sharing, travel costs, travel behavior, autonomous vehicles, automobile ownership, policy analysis |
| Date: | 2020–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt6vz5q4mc&r=all |
| By: | Volker, Jamey; Lee, Amy; Fitch, Dillon |
| Abstract: | Local governments have long relied on Level of Service (LOS), a measure of automobile congestion, as the basis for assessing transportation impacts of land use development projects. However, use of the LOS metric creates an incentive for projects that contribute to urban sprawl while penalizing denser development projects that could allow people better accessibility to jobs and services through alternate modes like walking, bicycling, or transit. Starting July 1, 2020, local governments in California are required to use vehicle miles traveled (VMT) rather than LOS to measure land use projects’ transportation impacts. Researchers at UC Davis studied how this change affects the approval process for urban development. Because most agencies have not yet switched to using VMT in their analyses, the researchers looked back at environmental documents for development projects in the City of Los Angeles between 2001 and 2016 and determined whether these projects could have benefited from using a VMT metric instead of LOS for measuring their transportation impacts. Findings are summarized in this policy brief. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Law, CEQA, development, housing, level of service, vehicle miles traveled |
| Date: | 2020–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9gc99576&r=all |
| By: | Prateek Bansal; Akanksha Sinha; Rubal Dua; Ricardo Daziano (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | The ‘ride-hailing’ services offered by transportation network companies (TNCs) such as Uber and Lyft have rapidly disrupted personal transportation, particularly in cities. Schaller (2018) reports that TNCs provided 2.6 billion rides in 2017 in the United States (U.S.), a 37% increase from 2016. The rapid increase in the adoption of TNC services can be attributed to the ease of access offered by smartphone applications and the higher availability of cars and drivers compared to regulated, traditional taxi services. |
| Keywords: | Transportation, Ride-hailing, Transportation Network Companies (TNCs) |
| Date: | 2020–02–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2020-dp03&r=all |
| By: | Das,Abhiman; Ghani,Ejaz; Grover,Arti Goswami; Kerr,William Robert; Nanda,Ramana |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the construction of India's Golden Quadrangle central highway network, together with comprehensive loan data from the Reserve Bank of India, to investigate the interaction between infrastructure development and financial sector depth. The paper identifies a disproportionate increase in loan count and average loan size in districts along the Golden Quadrangle highway network, using stringent specifications with industry and district fixed effects. The results hold in straight-line instrumental variable frameworks and are not present in placebo tests with another highway that was planned to be upgraded at the same time as Golden Quadrangle but subsequently delayed. Importantly, however, the results are concentrated in districts with stronger initial financial development, suggesting that although financing responds to large infrastructure investments and helps spur real economic outcomes, initial financial sector development might play an important role in determining where real activity will grow. |
| Keywords: | Pulp&Paper Industry,Textiles, Apparel&Leather Industry,General Manufacturing,Food&Beverage Industry,Common Carriers Industry,Construction Industry,Plastics&Rubber Industry,Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies,Roads and Highways Performance,Roads&Highways,Inter-Urban Roads and Passenger Transport,Transport Services,Financial Sector Policy,Economic Growth,Industrial Economics,Economic Theory&Research |
| Date: | 2019–06–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8885&r=all |
| By: | Joep Tijm (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Thomas Michielsen (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Peter Zwaneveld (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Raoul van Maarseveen |
| Abstract: | Infrastructure projects are increasingly aiming to improve liveability, in particular in urban areas. We analyse a specifi c case in which an existing highway in an urban area was moved underground in order to improve intercity traffic flows and to reduce traffic externalities. As travel times within the city hardly changed, this allows for a clean identifi cation of the value of traffic externalities. We find that the liveability bene fits of such integrated infrastructure are substantial relative to the construction costs. Each halving of distance to the tunneled segment is associated with 3.5% more appreciation in house prices since the start of the project. |
| JEL: | R12 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpb:discus:379.rdf&r=all |
| By: | Santamaria, Marta (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the gains from infrastructure investments and shows that reshaping the highway network after a large economic shock, the division of Germany, had positive welfare and income effects. To address the endogeneity between infrastructure and economic outcomes, I develop a multi-region quantitative trade model where infrastructure is chosen by the government to maximise welfare. I calibrate the model to the prewar German economy and estimate the key structural parameter of the model using the prewar Highway Plan. I exploit the divisionofGermany,alarge-scaleexogenousshocktoeconomicfundamentals,toshowthatthe model can predict changes in highway construction after the division. Using newly collected data, I document that half of the new highway investments deviated from the prewar Highway Plan. I find that the reallocation of these investments (one-third of the network) increased real income by 0.69% to 2% each year, compared to the construction of the original prewar Plan. Finally, I find a large cost of path-dependence: the ability to reshape the full network in anticipation of the division could have increased real income by an additional 1.85%. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1244&r=all |
| By: | Jones,Patricia H.; Lartey,Emmanuel Kwasi Koranteng; Mengistae,Taye Alemu; Zeufack,Albert G. |
| Abstract: | This paper uses plant-level, panel data from the Ethiopian manufacturing census to estimate the effects of demand-side and supply-side factors on industrywide aggregate productivity. The paper focuses on the effects of three factors: (1) local market size, (2) the value of transportation costs that firms incur in selling to customers outside their market, and (3) licensing fees needed to enter the market. Identification is based on a model of production under monopolistic competition, which enables interpreting the estimated coefficients of a reduced form, dynamic productivity equation. The paper analyzes 11 industries in Ethiopia over 2000 to 2010. Several interesting results emerge. In the most parsimonious specification, the estimated coefficients are consistent with all three predictions of the model?but only for one industry: cinder blocks. In this industry, the expansion of the local market boosts industrywide total factor revenue productivity, while increases in transport costs and licensing fees reduce it. The picture is somewhat mixed in the other 10 industries but broadly consistent with the predictions of the model. |
| Keywords: | Transport Services,Food&Beverage Industry,Plastics&Rubber Industry,Textiles, Apparel&Leather Industry,Pulp&Paper Industry,General Manufacturing,Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies,Common Carriers Industry,Construction Industry,International Trade and Trade Rules,Public Sector Administrative and Civil Service Reform,De Facto Governments,Democratic Government,Public Sector Administrative&Civil Service Reform,Administrative&Civil Service Reform,Information Technology |
| Date: | 2019–06–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8875&r=all |
| By: | Kornejew,Martin Gunter Michail; Maruyama Rentschler,Jun Erik; Hallegatte,Stephane |
| Abstract: | This study explores the role of governance in improving infrastructure reliability. It estimates that increasing infrastructure spending and improving governance in parallel is six times more effective at enhancing transport system performance than increasing spending alone. It also estimates that under current fiscal budgeting, every $1 spent on infrastructure maintenance is as effective as $1.5 of new investments in many OECD economies. Overall, the evidence in this study demonstrates that it is the quality rather than the quantity of infrastructure spending that determines the quality of infrastructure services. |
| Keywords: | Transport Services,Energy Policies&Economics,Hydrology,Public Sector Economics,Public Financial Management,Public Finance Decentralization and Poverty Reduction |
| Date: | 2019–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8894&r=all |
| By: | Maruyama Rentschler,Jun Erik; Braese,Johannes Michael; Jones,Nicholas K.W.; Avner,Paolo |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the degree to which infrastructure reliability and urban economic activity in several African cities is impacted by flooding. It combines firm-level micro data, flood maps, and several spatial data layers across cities through a harmonized geospatial network analysis. The analysis shows that a significant share of jobs in cities is directly affected by floods. It further details how transport infrastructure is subjected to significant flood risk that disproportionally affects main roads in many cities. While direct flood effects are revealed to be significant, this work further shows how knock-on implications for the entire urban economy might be even larger. Regardless of the direct flood exposure of firms, flooded transport networks mean that disruptions propagate across the city and drastically reduce the connectivity between firms. Access to hospitals is also found to be reduced significantly -- even during relatively light flooding events: From a third of locations in Kampala, floods mean that people would no longer be able to reach hospitals within the"golden hour"-- a rule of thumb referring to the window of time that maximizes the likelihood of survival after a severe medical incident. Overall, this study showcases the use of high-detail city-level analyses to better understand the localized impacts of natural hazards on urban infrastructure networks. |
| Keywords: | Natural Disasters,Transport Services,Labor Markets,Hydrology,Energy Policies&Economics |
| Date: | 2019–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8898&r=all |
| By: | Shaheen, Susan PhD; Stocker, Adam; Meza, Ruth |
| Abstract: | To better understand the equity implications of a variety of congestion management strategies, researchers at the Transportation Sustainability Research Center (TSRC) at University of California, Berkeley analyzed existing literature on congestion management strategies and findings from 12 expert interviews. The literature review applies the Spatial – Temporal – Economic – Physiological – Social (STEPS) Equity Framework1 to identify impacts and classify whether social equity barriers are reduced, exacerbated, or both by a particular strategy. The congestion management strategies of interest were categorized into six broader categories: 1) pricing, 2) parking and curb policies, 3) operational strategies, 4) infrastructure changes, 5) transportation services and strategies, and 6) conventional taxation. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, traffic congestion, congestion pricing, social equity |
| Date: | 2019–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt7rm9w4pn&r=all |
| By: | Chauvet, Pablo; Chen, Taotao; Jaimurzina, Azhar; Xu, Run; Jin, Ying |
| Abstract: | China’s investments are one way for expanding infrastructure that many Latin American countries have been seeking through Public-Private Partnerships (PPP). To attract and retain the interest of the private sector, the existence of a proper, strong governance, as well as stable and sound legal frameworks is paramount. Decision-making and implementation processes also need to be improved to ensure that the match between the infrastructure investment needs in Latin America and the Chinese financing capabilities effectively results in a leap towards the improvement of infrastructure in quantity and quality, an imperative for the sustainable development of the region. The current document offers an overview of the needs for infrastructure investments in Latin America and the region’s experience with PPP in infrastructure up to now, as well as the current capabilities and potential of the Chinese public and private sectors to join the infrastructure PPP market in Latin America. |
| Keywords: | RELACIONES ECONOMICAS INTERNACIONALES, INVERSIONES, INFRAESTRUCTURA FISICA, ALIANZAS PUBLICO-PRIVADAS, DESARROLLO DE CAPACIDAD, PROYECTOS DE DESARROLLO, FINANCIACION DE PROYECTOS, DESARROLLO ECONOMICO, INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS, INVESTMENTS, PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS, CAPACITY BUILDING, DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS, PROJECT FINANCE, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT |
| Date: | 2020–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col025:45205&r=all |
| By: | Gaurab Aryal; Federico Ciliberto; Benjamin T. Leyden |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether legacy U.S. airlines communicated via earnings calls to coordinate with other legacy airlines in offering fewer seats on competitive routes. To this end, we first use text analytics to build a novel dataset on communication among airlines about their capacity choices. Estimates from our preferred specification show that when all legacy airlines in a market discuss the concept of “capacity discipline,” they reduce offered seats by 1.79%. We verify that this reduction materializes only when airlines communicate concurrently, and that it cannot be explained by other possibilities, including that airlines are simply announcing to investors their unilateral intentions to reduce capacity, and then following through on those announcements. Additional results from conditional-exogeneity tests and control function estimates confirm our interpretation. |
| Keywords: | airlines, communication, capacity discipline, text data |
| JEL: | D22 L13 L41 L93 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8115&r=all |
| By: | Shaheen, Susan PhD; Cohen, Adam |
| Abstract: | Since 1998, 94 carsharing programs have been deployed in North America - 40 are operational and 52 are defunct. As of January 1, 2018, there were 18 active programs in Canada, 21 in the United States (U.S.), and one program in Mexico. In North America, carsharing membership totaled approximately 2,110,111 members sharing 23,376 vehicles. The three largest carsharing operators in the U.S. and Canada accounted for 91% and 86% of the total membership, respectively. Only one operator provided service in Mexico as of January 2018. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2020–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt9jh432pm&r=all |
| By: | Wilson, William W; Bullock, David; Lakkakula, Prithviraj |
| Abstract: | Grain shipping involves many sources of risk and uncertainty. In response to these dynamic challenges faced by shippers, railroad carriers offer various types of forward contracting instruments. An important feature of the US grain marketing system is that there are now a number of pricing mechanisms used by most rail carriers. These include varying forms of forward pricing and allocation mechanisms. In the United States, these have evolved since the late 1980’s and have had a number of important changes in their features over time. The operations and impact of these mechanisms are not well understood, but yet are frequently subject of public criticism and studies, and at the same time revered by (some) market participants. These mechanisms serve a number of important functions that are critical to the grain marketing system. These include allocating capacity across shippers, allocating shipments temporally and seasonally, as well as geographically, in addition to determining price or value of the service. The purpose of this study is to provide a comprehensive review, description and analysis of these mechanisms. Specific objectives are to 1) Document the evolution and operations of these mechanisms over time and across carriers; 2) Determine and describe the impacts of these practices on basis, both spatially and temporally, and on trading firms and other market participants; and 3) Summarize and assess the operations on these mechanisms relative to alternative pricing mechanisms. Multiple empirical models were developed and used to analyze two important aspects of this problem. One is the role and relationship of the shipping costs on basis values. These results show that basis is more complicated than previously modeled. Export basis are mostly impacted by export competition, imports, and the seasonal characterization varies across marketing years. In addition, the export basis is simultaneously dependent on the origin basis. Last, there is an important relation among rail velocity, and the secondary car market, which is simultaneously determined with the export basis. Other models examine the impact of these mechanisms on shipper conduct, specifically, how risks and rail mechanisms impact shipper strategies. The last section provides a discussion of summary and conclusions, and of future issues. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2020–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nddaes:302409&r=all |
| By: | Koen van Ruijven (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Paul Verstraten (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Peter Zwaneveld (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis) |
| Abstract: | As urbanization continues, congestion externalities are becoming more important due to an increasing utilization of the prevailing infrastructure. A growing number of cities have conducted transit-oriented developments to mitigate these congestion externalities. In this article, we analyze the effects of transit-oriented developments on residential property values As an extension to the standard hedonic pricing method, we employ the synthetic control method to estimate the value-added of transit-oriented developments. Three quantitative case studies in the Netherlands indicate that the effects of transit-oriented developments are highly heterogeneous. One case shows strong positive results. The other two are either insignificant, or temporarily negative. |
| JEL: | R38 R58 |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpb:discus:399.rdf&r=all |
| By: | Chatman, Daniel G. PhD; Moran, Marcel E. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2019–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt4xv6z4mj&r=all |
| By: | Beatrice Acciaio; Julio Backhoff-Veraguas; Junchao Jia |
| Abstract: | We consider a large population dynamic game in discrete time. The peculiarity of the game is that players are characterized by time-evolving types, and so reasonably their actions should not anticipate the future values of their types. When interactions between players are of mean-field kind, we relate Nash equilibria for such games to an asymptotic notion of dynamic Cournot-Nash equilibria. Inspired by the works of Blanchet and Carlier for the static situation, we interpret dynamic Cournot-Nash equilibria in the light of causal optimal transport theory. Further specializing to games of potential type, we establish existence, uniqueness and characterization of equilibria. Moreover we develop, for the first time, a numerical scheme for causal optimal transport, which is then leveraged in order to compute dynamic Cournot-Nash equilibria. This is illustrated in a detailed case study of a congestion game. |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2002.08786&r=all |