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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Rubal Dua; Tamara Sheldon (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the drivers of recent improvements in Saudi Arabia’s new light-duty vehicle fleet fuel economy. A vehicle choice model is estimated using aggregate and disaggregate new vehicle purchase data. The estimates are used to simulate counterfactual policy scenarios. |
| Keywords: | Automobile Transport, Fuel Efficient Vehicles, Fuel Price, Gasoline Consumption, Gasoline Demand |
| Date: | 2019–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2019-dp55&r=all |
| By: | Wessel, Nate |
| Abstract: | The study of accessibility - the ease of reaching destinations - by public transport has made huge advances thanks to the availability of standardized, routable transit schedule data. The General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) has provided researchers with a vast trove of machine-readable data allowing for highly detailed spatio-temporal modelling of scheduled transit operations. Yet it is well established that in the real-world schedules are imperfect - vehicles often run late, get bunched, miss transfers, arrive too full for anyone to board, and otherwise behave in predictably unpredictable ways. Schedule data alone cannot possibly account for this distinctly stochastic component of much transit service, which to date has been considered separate from accessibility analysis under the umbrella of ``reliability''. This dissertation takes the perspective that transit service is reliably unreliable and will continue to be so until humans are taken out of the equation. Detailed observations of actual service can be used to construct more realistic models for estimating travel times and thus accessibility via transit. Chapter 2 introduces a novel method of converting a detailed GPS record of transit fleet locations into a retrospective GTFS package. This backward-looking "schedule'' format allows the same tools developed for schedule-based GTFS analysis to be applied in Chapter 3 to a more accurate depiction of actual transit accessibility. The findings indicate that models of transit accessibility based on schedule data alone tend to produce substantial overestimates of accessibility and systematic spatial errors by failing to account for normal irregularities in service provision. Chapter 4 points toward a way of better suiting available GTFS analysis tools to actual transit service by addressing the problem of imperfect information in modelled route choice. The travel time implications for a large minority of trips are shown to be substantial. Transit accessibility research has come a long way in the last decade and has a long way yet to go. Models based on schedule data alone should give way in many cases to models based on service as actually provided, acknowledging that schedules may guide but rarely constrain the transit services that passengers actually use every day. |
| Date: | 2019–05–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:c4yvx&r=all |
| By: | Dongmei Chen; Yagyavalk Bhatt (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | China’s rapid economic growth has enabled the fast development of freight transport across the country. What might the impact of future economic growth be on freight movement in China? To answer this question, this paper establishes the link between key indicators of industrialization and freight transport through the use of a dynamic vector autoregressive model. Based on the analysis of two different scenarios, the study finds that: China’s freight turnover could double out to 2030 if the country remains at the later stages of industrialization. China could reduce the volume of its freight transport by transforming its process of industrialization through coordinated urban planning, new materials, developing high-tech industries and expanding the service sector. Together, these measures could see freight transport drop by 2.6 trillion tonne-kilometer, 6% less than under the business-as-usual model. Changes to the country’s economic structure may also lead to structural changes in modes of freight transportation, including an increased share for rail, the growing use of automotive transportation, and the increased use of containers in an integrated freight transport system. |
| Keywords: | Freight Mobility, Freight Modeling, Industrial Diversification, Transportation |
| Date: | 2019–05–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2019-dp57&r=all |
| By: | Wessel, Nate; Farber, Steven |
| Abstract: | Estimates of travel time by public transit often rely on the calculation of a shortest-path between two points for a given departure time. Such shortest-paths are time-dependent and not always stable from one moment to the next. Given that actual transit passengers necessarily have imperfect information about the system, their route selection strategies are heuristic and cannot be expected to achieve optimal travel times for all possible departures. Thus an algorithm that returns optimal travel times at all moments will tend to underestimate real travel times all else being equal. While several researchers have noted this issue none have yet measured the extent of the problem. This study observes and measures this effect by contrasting two alternative heuristic routing strategies to a standard shortest-path calculation. The Toronto Transit Commission is used as a case study and we model actual transit operations for the agency over the course of a normal week with archived AVL data transformed into a retrospective GTFS dataset. Travel times are estimated using two alternative route-choice assumptions: 1) habitual selection of the itinerary with the best average travel time and 2) dynamic choice of the next-departing route in a predefined choice set. It is shown that most trips present passengers with a complex choice among competing itineraries and that the choice of itinerary at any given moment of departure may entail substantial travel time risk relative to the optimal outcome. In the context of accessibility modelling, where travel times are typically considered as a distribution, the optimal path method is observed in aggregate to underestimate travel time by about 3-4 minutes at the median and 6-7 minutes at the \nth{90} percentile for a typical trip. |
| Date: | 2019–04–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:3r4p6&r=all |
| By: | Mahdi Takalloo; Changhyun Kwon |
| Abstract: | When network users are satisficing decision-makers, the resulting traffic pattern attains a satisficing user equilibrium, which may deviate from the (perfectly rational) user equilibrium. In a satisficing user equilibrium traffic pattern, the total system travel time can be worse than in the case of the PRUE. We show how bad the worst-case satisficing user equilibrium traffic pattern can be, compared to the perfectly rational user equilibrium. We call the ratio between the total system travel times of the two traffic patterns the price of satisficing, for which we provide an analytical bound. We compare the analytical bound with numerical bounds for several transportation networks. |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1911.07914&r=all |
| By: | Wolff, Stefanie (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)) |
| Abstract: | This study assesses respondents’ preferences for privately-used passenger electric vehicle (EV) charging with respect to the six attributes: (1) place of charging; (2) charging duration (full charge); (3) charging technology; (4) waiting time for charging spot to become available; (5) share of renewables in the electricity mix used for vehicle charging; and (6) total cost for the whole bundle of attributes per month. Due to the low number of current EV users in Germany, investigating consumers’ EV charging infrastructure preferences and their willingness to pay (WTP) for it based on real usage data is challenging. In addition, the results would not be directly transferable to the development of sound business cases since the sample size is too small. Therefore, we gathered data through a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) conducted in Germany (N = 4,101). Our DCE measures the preferences for certain attributes of EV charging infrastructures indirectly by confronting participants with hypothetical choice bundles. We analyze the data using conditional logit models, including fixed effects at the participant level, in order to gain actionable insights into the expected charging behavior of current and future EV drivers. We predict tendencies of consumer behavior and show that locational and time attributes are highly appreciated. Respondents are willing to pay, on average, around 22 €/month more for charging at home rather than at work and 46.26 €/month more for charging at home rather than on the roadside. For a reduction in charging time from 8 h to 7 h, respondents are willing to pay around 8 €/month; whereas from 8 h to 10 min, respondents are willing to pay around 70 €/month for all monthly charging processes. We also find WTP of five specific consumer categories (environmentalists, EV owners, EV experts, at-home charger, and home owners). Our results could be useful for charging point operators. |
| Keywords: | Electric mobility charging behavior; Discrete choice experiment; Econometric modeling; Willingness to pay |
| JEL: | C25 D12 M38 Q58 R40 |
| Date: | 2019–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2019_003&r=all |
| By: | Asplund, Disa (Research Programme in Transport Economics); Pyddoke, Roger (Research Programme in Transport Economics) |
| Abstract: | Studies of cities which successfully have shifted mode choice from car to more sustainable modes, suggest that coordinated packages of mutually reinforcing policy instruments are needed. Congestion charges and parking fees can be important parts of such packages. This paper aims to examine the introduction of welfare optimal congestion charges and parking fees in a model calibrated to Uppsala, a small city in Sweden. The results suggest that welfare optimal congestion charges in Uppsala are as high as EUR 3.0 in the peak hours and EUR 1.5 in the off-peak. In a rough cost-benefit analysis it is shown that the introduction of congestion charges in Uppsala are welfare improving if operating costs of congestion charges are proportional to city population size (compared to Gothenburg). The model can be used to assess when it is worthwhile to introduce congestion pricing. |
| Keywords: | Congestion charges; Parking; Pricing; Demand; Optimization; Urban; Welfare |
| JEL: | R10 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2019–11–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:trnspr:2019_002&r=all |
| By: | Amro Elshurafa; Nawaz Peerbocus (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | A power system model for Saudi Arabia was built to quantify the carbon emission implications of deploying electric vehicles (EVs) within the Kingdom. The model represented the four operating regions in the Kingdom as segmented by the electricity regulator. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Emissions, Electric Vehicles, Power Systems |
| Date: | 2019–10–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2019-dp76&r=all |
| By: | Rothengatter, Werner (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | The European Union introduced the concept of Trans-European transport networks in 1996 and developed it from a set of projects into a comprehensive network plan in 2013. The high-priority components of this plan (for 2050) are a core network and nine core network corridors (CNCs), which the European Union intends to implement until the year 2030. The CNCs focus on improving connectivity, including harmonizing technology and organization as well as removing border resistance. Railways, in particular high-speed railways, are at the core of the CNCs. The evaluation of CNCs through conventional cost–benefit analysis (CBA) is too narrow and could lead to a patchwork of independent projects rather than an integrated network. Therefore, the European Commission has launched several studies on extending CBA with strategic approaches including wider economic impacts and long-term impacts on the environment, climate, and regional/social equity. As there has been no convention for a standard approach until now—contrasting CBA—we discuss several possible methodologies. The conclusion favors dynamic approaches that are well calibrated on the base of empirical observations, such as macro-econometric or system dynamics models, over theoretically more challenging general equilibrium models, although the latter are still the mainstream in the economic literature. |
| Keywords: | trans-european networks; core network corridors; cost–benefit analysis; wider economic impacts; computed equilibrium; econometrics; system dynamics approaches; integrated assessment |
| JEL: | H54 O22 R42 |
| Date: | 2019–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0946&r=all |
| By: | Heissel, Jennifer (Naval Postgraduate School); Persico, Claudia (American University); Simon, David (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | We examine the effect of school traffic pollution on student outcomes by leveraging variation in wind patterns for schools the same distance from major highways. We compare within-student achievement for students transitioning between schools near highways, where one school has had greater levels of pollution because it is downwind of a highway. Students who move from an elementary/middle school that feeds into a "downwind" middle/high school in the same zip code experience decreases in test scores, more behavioral incidents, and more absences, relative to when they transition to an upwind school. Even within zip codes, microclimates can contribute to inequality. |
| Keywords: | air pollution, academic achievement, child health |
| JEL: | Q53 I24 I14 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12745&r=all |
| By: | Kidokoro, Tetsuo (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Many metropolitan cities in Asia are planning and implementing extensive investment in mass transit networks and thus are now on the threshold of becoming transit cities or car traffic saturation cities. The promotion of transit-oriented development (TOD) policies will be a key to the progression to transit cities. TOD should consider a transit-oriented regional growth management plan, station area zoning regulations (mixed-use, minimum density, maximum parking, etc.), joint development among local governments, transit agencies, and private developers, and an institutional mechanism for public and private cooperation in station area development. We examine cases from cities in Japan, the United States (US), and Southeast Asia, including Tokyo and Toyama in Japan, Denver in the US, and Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia. We conclude that the following are factors for the successful implementation of TOD in Asian cities: a shift from highway-based zoning to transit-oriented zoning; the creation of an institutional mechanism for public and private cooperation in station area development; a balance between public benefit and private benefit; the connection of transit services and affordable housing; and multi-modal connection planning, including walking. |
| Keywords: | asia; mass transit network; metropolitan cities; transit cities; transit-oriented development; urbanization |
| JEL: | O18 R42 R51 R58 |
| Date: | 2019–05–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0947&r=all |