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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Much of Europe’s infrastructure is in a bad state, even in some wealthy parts of Europe, such as Germany. Europe’s periphery is underdeveloped and has difficulties to catch up, in part because of substantial infrastructure deficiencies. Real interest rates are negative and infrastructure investment has the potential to finance itself. Current European infrastructure initiatives are insufficient and piecemeal. In this context, wiiw proposes a financing model for a European Silk Road, as suggested in Holzner et al. (2018). The new transport infrastructure (a combination of an e-mobility motorway, high-speed rail, ports and logistics centres) would connect the industrial areas of the west with the populous, but less developed, regions in the east of the continent. The estimated construction costs of 1 trillion euros (7% of EU GDP) should yield substantial short-, medium- and long-run economic gains along the route (11,000 km overland). Apart from the growth and employment effects of construction activity (2-7 million new jobs during the building period), trade effects are also expected to be significant. In order to conduct and finance the project, we propose establishing a European Silk Road Trust (ESRT) as a public limited company, similar to the Austrian ASFiNAG corporation. This would allow for the extra-budgetary financing of investment in infrastructure (and for the project’s operation). While the ESRT (owned by the euro area countries, other EU countries and third countries that wish to join in the construction of the European Silk Road) could rely on a public guarantee when it comes to issuing long-term bonds (at currently zero or even negative interest rates), it would formally be part of the private sector, especially as it would have sufficient income of its own from private customers (tolls). As a strong core guarantor for the ESRT, we suggest the gradual development of a European Sovereign Wealth Fund (ESWF) by the euro area member states. At a certain point in time, this fund could replace the euro area member states as the major guarantor for ESRT bonds. In the initial phase, the European Central Bank (ECB) could reinvest a part of its assets in a way that would (to a certain extent) carry more risk, but also bring greater revenues, following the structure of the Norwegian oil fund. It is estimated that the ESWF would grow over the longer term to about 3% of the euro area’s GDP. This should be sufficient to guarantee the ESRT bonds – even if long-term interest rates move back into positive territory in the more distant future. Alternative means of financing include a much smaller ESWF of about 0.7% of euro area GDP in the longer run, sourced from a part of the profits of the ECB, without changing the structure of the ECB’s asset purchase programmes. Other options, which would make use of existing institutions (instead of an ESWF) would include, for instance, a substantial increase in the European Fund for Strategic Investments (EFSI) and/or a larger capital injection in the European Investment Bank (EIB), in order to finance the ESRT’s activities. The likelihood of an increase in global interest rates anytime soon is minimal, considering the Japanese experience over recent decades. In the current macroeconomic climate, a ‘big push’ in infrastructure investment, such as the suggested European Silk Road project, could help to solve both the problem of sluggish growth in the west of the continent and the developmental problems in the east. Moreover, it could constitute a new narrative of cooperation for Europe. |
| Keywords: | infrastructure, transportation, Europe, China, Silk Road, growth, economic integration. industrialisation, international trade, public finance, international financial policy, financial institutions |
| JEL: | E61 F36 F38 F42 G18 G28 H54 O18 R41 R42 L92 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:35&r=all |
| By: | Fulton, Lewis M; Jaffe, Amy; McDonald, Zane |
| Abstract: | Automotive transport represents one of the highest contributing sources of oil use, local air pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions. Several countries, notably including several European countries and China, have proposed bans on the sale of automotive internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles as a means to abate these negative effects from the sector. Some cities and regions have already instituted restrictions on ICE vehicles. Larger, national bans have been discussed as a policy to begin in 2040. We consider the literature on proposed policies to ban ICE vehicles and develop scenarios to estimate the potential impacts of these proposed bans, to contribute to a peaking in oil demand and eventual reductions in CO2 emissions. We find that national level ICE car bans in key markets such as China and Europe in 2040 could reduce oil use by five million barrels a day (b/d) by 2050, under five percent of projected global oil use. A global ban would eliminate three times that level of oil use but would likely take several decades for its full impact is realized. Our findings suggest that other supporting policies beyond the bans alone might be necessary to trigger more rapid changes in markets and purchase behavior. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, internal combustion engines, environmental policy, transportation policy, petroleum industry |
| Date: | 2019–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt52j400b1&r=all |
| By: | Pike, Susan PhD; Kazemian, Sara |
| Abstract: | In early 2016 the Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority implemented a pilot program in partnership with Uber and United Taxi (a local company) to provide subsidized travel for trips to and from specified public transportation stops (Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority). Since that time, similar pilots have sprung up throughout the US. Presumably, the proliferation of these pilots is due to early successes; likely measured by cost savings, increased ridership, expanded service areas, improved first/last mile connections, and increased visibility of ridehailing services. We would expect the outcomes of these pilots to be shared among public transportation operators, resulting in improvements as they are implemented in new locations over time. However, much of the information that might be used to evaluate these programs is confidential or proprietary, creating challenges for public transportation operators to discuss details with others. This project aims to identify the factors informing the implementation of these pilots and the pathways by which relevant information is shared among public transportation operators. Key questions are: Do transit agencies gather information independently; from one another, academic sources, or policy experts, or others? Are transit agencies primarily informed by potential ridehailing industry partners as they consider these partnerships and programs? And how do these different pathways impact the partnerships transit agencies form with ridehailing companies and the programs they launch? |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Public transit, connectivity, public private partnerships, ridesourcing, policy analysis, policy making, pilot studies, demand responsive transportation |
| Date: | 2019–11–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9dk920j1&r=all |
| By: | Theodoros Pantelidis; Saeid Rasulkhani; Joseph Y. J. Chow |
| Abstract: | As Mobility as a Service (MaaS) systems become increasingly popular, travel is changing from unimodal trips to personalized services offered by a market of mobility operators. Traditional traffic assignment models ignore the interaction of different operators. However, a key characteristic of MaaS markets is that urban trip decisions depend on both user route decisions as well as operator service and pricing decisions. We adopt a new paradigm for traffic assignment in a MaaS network of multiple operators using the concept of stable matching to allocate costs and determine prices offered by operators corresponding to user route choices and operator service choices without resorting to nonconvex bilevel programming formulations. Unlike our prior work, the proposed model allows travelers to make multimodal, multi-operator trips, resulting in stable cost allocations between competing network operators to provide MaaS for users. Algorithms are proposed to generate stability conditions for the stable outcome pricing model. Extensive computational experiments demonstrate the use of the model, and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, to handling pricing responses of MaaS operators in technological and capacity changes, government acquisition, consolidation, and firm entry, using the classic Sioux Falls network. |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1911.04435&r=all |
| By: | Osicka, Ondrej (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Guajardo, Mario (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Jörnsten, Kurt (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The traveling salesman problem and its variants are among the most studied problems in the literature on transportation and logistics. In one of these variants known as the profitable tour problem [2], a profit-maximizing carrier decides whether to visit a particular customer with respect to the prize the customer offers for being visited and traveling cost associated with the visit, all in the context of other customers. The purpose of this paper is to define the profitable tour game, a cooperative version of the profitable tour problem, and to derive its properties. We are particularly interested in prize allocations that create incentives for the carrier to visit all relevant customers. Applications of the profitable tour game might include for example situations in shipping where a carrier is able to serve demands of several customers with a single vehicle. Whether it comes to delivery or pickup of goods, the customers might need to induce the carrier to visit them by offering sufficient rewards. Subsequently, negotiation with other customers in the same position could lead to better prizes while the carrier's visit would remain guaranteed. This knowledge could also be utilized by the carrier by offering specifically tailored discounts on multiple orders from the same area or by evaluating and pricing of new customers. |
| Keywords: | Traveling salesman problem; Profitable tour problem; Prize-collecting TSP; Logistics; Cooperative game theory; Prize allocation |
| JEL: | C00 C71 |
| Date: | 2019–11–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2019_017&r=all |
| By: | Blanco, Hilda; Wikstrom, Alexander |
| Abstract: | Transit Oriented Development (TOD) typically follows a common construction sequence that begins with transit infrastructure, followed by changing land use designations and densities. TODs are then built around transit stations or lines. An alternative approach is to turn failing shopping malls with their large footprints into mixed-use housing, then provide or enhance transit to these redevelopment projects. This approach could result in successful TODs: housing and mixed uses at appropriate densities to support transit. This policy brief summarizes findings from the white paper which reviewed the literature and provided the rationale for such redevelopments. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Business, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Feasibility analysis, Policy analysis, Public private partnerships, Public transit, Redevelopment, Shopping centers, Transit oriented development, Zoning |
| Date: | 2019–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1jq2v431&r=all |
| By: | QUESADA PEREZ José Miguel, (CORE, UCLouvain); TANCREZ Jean-Sébastien, (CORE, UCLouvain); LANGE Jean-Charles, |
| Abstract: | The Express Shipment Service Network Design (ESSND) problem consists in defining a network of flights that enables the overnight flow of express packages from their origins to their destinations at minimum cost. This problem is normally solved considering only one-leg, multip-leg and ferry routes. Assessing the value of more complex route types is an open question of academic and practical importance. In this article, we present a mixed integer programming model that includes five types of complex routes: two-hub, transload, direct, inter-hub and early routes. We assess their economic impact by performing many experiments built from an instance provided by FedEx Express Europe. Inter-hub and early routes have the best performance, with significant average savings (from 0.5% to 3.5%). |
| Keywords: | service network design, express integrator, multiple hubs, flexible hub assignment, mixed integer programming, complex routes |
| Date: | 2019–03–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cor:louvco:2019009&r=all |
| By: | O. Folarin |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this research was to ascertain the correlation between infrastructure development and land values within the study area. The land values for ten years period was used for the research study. The descriptive research that was employed was the quantitative design method. A sample size of one hundred and fifty - four (154) respondents of the Ogun State Property Investment Company (OPIC) was employed which included; employees, residents of the estates, property brokers and others. Analysis of data was by the use of percentages, frequencies, mean score, rank correlation and Pearson’s correlation coefficient. From the analysis it showed that infrastructure had improved within the last ten years. Furthermore results showed that the state of infrastructure within the study area was most improved in the year 2013 and also ranked the highest in the level of infrastructure development. The research findings revealed that the development of the roads did have a positive impact by increasing land values. This study hereby recommends that the Government should further invest and improve the level of infrastructure as it would be beneficial to the economy at large. |
| Keywords: | Development; Infrastructure; Land Values; Roads and Drainages |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2018–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:afr:wpaper:afres2018_149&r=all |
| By: | Triepels, Ron (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Abstract: | This thesis explores how organizations in the shipping and banking industry can apply anomaly detection to identify unwanted or risky events that threaten their operations. It consists of two parts. In the first part, we study how freight forwarders and customs authorities can apply anomaly detection to combat miscoding and smuggling in international shipping. Miscoding and smuggling are fraud schemes in which fraudsters provide falsified information about the goods in transit to evade shipping restrictions or customs duties. We develop a fraud detection system based on a Bayesian network to detect such fraud automatically in shipment data and compare the effectiveness of the system with traditional audit methods. In the second part, we study how central banks can apply anomaly detection to identify liquidity risk at banks from the transaction logs generated by financial market infrastructures. Liquidity risk arises when a bank manages its liquidity inadequately and is no longer able to meet its payment obligations. Identifying early warning signs of such risk is of importance to central banks to supervise the financial activities of banks. We develop various models to identify liquidity risk and evaluate their usefulness for bank supervision. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:7f67854e-cb7f-4d44-a697-687e03cfc058&r=all |
| By: | Stoehr, Niklas; Braesemann, Fabian; Zhou, Shi |
| Abstract: | The digital transformation is driving revolutionary innovations and new market entrants threaten established sectors of the economy such as the automotive industry. Following the need for monitoring shifting industries, we present a network-centred analysis of car manufacturer web pages. Solely exploiting publicly-available information, we con- struct large networks from web pages and hyperlinks. The network properties disclose the internal corporate positioning of the three largest automotive manufacturers, Toyota, Volkswagen and Hyundai with respect to innovative trends and their international outlook. We tag web pages concerned with topics like e-mobility & environment or autonomous driving, and investigate their relevance in the network. Toyota and Hyundai are concerned with e-mobility throughout large parts of their web page network; Volkswagen devotes more specialized sections to it, but reveals a strong focus on autonomous driving. Sentiment analysis on individual web pages uncovers a relationship between page linking and use of positive language, particularly with respect to innovative trends. Web pages of the same country domain form clusters of different size in the network that reveal strong correlations with sales market orientation. Our approach is highly transparent, reproducible and data driven, and could be used to gain complementary insights into innovative strategies of firms and competitive landscapes. |
| Date: | 2019–10–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:bu5zs&r=all |