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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Dominguez-Faus, Rosa PhD; Kiani, Behdad PhD; Fulton, Lew PhD |
| Abstract: | This report makes an initial investigation into the potential for combining very high penetration levels of electric vehicles with similarly very high penetration of variable renewable electricity (VRE) in California. A literature review is performed regarding the potential for high levels of EV sales and VRE penetration at both the U.S. and California level. Such scenarios have been developed by a number of researchers, such as U.S. national laboratories for the White House (under the Obama Administration), and by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3) for the California Energy Commission. Such studies indicate that both of these “extreme” futures are entirely plausible and have the potential to coexist. However, none of the reviewed studies has undertaken detailed analysis of how large numbers of EVs could interact with and support a VRE-dominated system, and how these might interact in a useful way. This could include grid-to-vehicle (G2V) and vehicle- to-grid (V2G) movement of electricity, with vehicle batteries providing large scale electricity storage. We undertake our own preliminary simulation for a 2030 and 2050 scenario for California, using an 8760 hours (full year) electricity demand profile and VRE generation example. We assume a ramp- up of VRE to 60% of all electricity generation by 2030 and 100% by 2050, with a similar increase in the EV share of new LDV sales, creating a significant stock (about 7 million) by 2030 and nearly complete transition (to over 20 million vehicles) by 2050. Using an “averages, peaks and valleys” analysis on the electric side, and a typical spare battery storage potential on the vehicle side, our simulation shows that by 2030 a large share of excess VRE electricity generation could be stored, and a large share of electricity shortfall from VRE could be provided, by electric vehicle batteries throughout the year, though there would be many cases where they cannot provide full coverage of these situations. However by 2050, if nearly 100% of the fleet were EVs, only about half of their available, spare capacity is needed to store the excess electricity from a full VRE system on the highest generation day and only about 40% would be needed to store and supply the shortage from lack of VRE generation on the highest shortfall day. While these results are encouraging, a deeper simulation is needed to provide a true hour-by-hour assessment of battery use and the incidence of storage need compared to driving need. Management of charging times that could not be assessed here may also play a critical role. In addition, our initial assessment only covers a single day shortfall. Shortfalls could occur for longer periods, particularly if the VRE electricity system were sized to take better advantage of seasonal storage options. Vehicle batteries are best suited to very short duration storage and may not be adequate to keep the electricity reliable for many consecutive days of shortfall. Hydrogen (H2) has the potential to be a longer-term energy storage option and could be stored in fuel cell vehicle tanks (and the H2 system associated with generating, storing and distributing H2 to those tanks). The next stage of our research will involve running a full simulation using our (ITS-Davis) California ZEV power model (“CALZEV”), a version of the larger Message model, applied to consider both electricity and hydrogen (with large numbers of both of these types of vehicles) in order to: 1) gauge the relative storage potential and cost over a range of time frames and VRE scenarios, and 2) estimate the relative value and possible synergies in a system with both types of vehicles and fuels. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, energy modeling, distributed storage, V2G, G2V, renewable energy, EV, FCV, Hydrogen, Electricity |
| Date: | 2019–07–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0wt6v2hs&r=all |
| By: | HOSONO Kaoru; MIYAKAWA Daisuke; ONO Arito; UCHIDA Hirofumi; UESUGI Iichiro |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effects of an exogenous increase in transportation costs caused by the disruption of a highway due to the Tohoku Earthquake in Japan, on inter-firm transactional relationships and firm performance. We find that as the transit time to partner firms (suppliers and customers) increased due to the disrupted highway, the likelihood of continued transactional relationships decreased. This effect is more pronounced when the corresponding partner is a customer with a lower share of sales. We also find that the disruption to the transactional relationships deteriorates the firms' ex-post business conditions and credit scores. |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:19043&r=all |
| By: | Kazuhiro Takauchi (Faculty of Business and Commerce,Kansai University); Tomomichi Mizuno (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University) |
| Date: | 2019–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koe:wpaper:1910&r=all |
| By: | Rico Krueger; Taha H. Rashidi; Akshay Vij |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we contrast parametric and semi-parametric representations of unobserved heterogeneity in hierarchical Bayesian multinomial logit models and leverage these methods to infer distributions of willingness to pay for features of shared automated vehicle (SAV) services. Specifically, we compare the multivariate normal (MVN), finite mixture of normals (F-MON) and Dirichlet process mixture of normals (DP-MON) mixing distributions. The latter promises to be particularly flexible in respect to the shapes it can assume and unlike other semi-parametric approaches does not require that its complexity is fixed prior to estimation. However, its properties relative to simpler mixing distributions are not well understood. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of the MVN, F-MON and DP-MON mixing distributions using simulated data and real data sourced from a stated choice study on preferences for SAV services in New York City. Our analysis shows that the DP-MON mixing distribution provides superior fit to the data and performs at least as well as the competing methods at out-of-sample prediction. The DP-MON mixing distribution also offers substantive behavioural insights into the adoption of SAVs. We find that preferences for in-vehicle travel time by SAV with ride-splitting are strongly polarised. Whereas one third of the sample is willing to pay between 10 and 80 USD/h to avoid sharing a vehicle with strangers, the remainder of the sample is either indifferent to ride-splitting or even desires it. Moreover, we estimate that new technologies such as vehicle automation and electrification are relatively unimportant to travellers. This suggests that travellers may primarily derive indirect, rather than immediate benefits from these new technologies through increases in operational efficiency and lower operating costs. |
| Date: | 2019–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1907.09639&r=all |
| By: | Laurent Daniel; Cenk Yildiran |
| Abstract: | This report presents an overview and trends of the ship finance practices in major shipbuilding economies. Ship finance is a broad term that involves corporate financial management of shipping companies and shipyards as well as new-building finance. Shipping companies need funds in order to refinance their debts, to sustain their working capital and to acquire vessels. Shipyards also need to finance their working capital before delivering orders and receiving full payments. There are two main sources of capital allowing shipping companies to finance their businesses; raising money through equity financing (sales of shares) or debt (loans and bonds). In the case of shipbuilding, debt financing includes using leasing schemes. Given the fact that the maritime industry is highly capital intensive, and with the 2008 Global Financial Crisis’ depressing effects on global economy and international trade, its financing has become critical for the shipbuilding sector and shipping companies around the world. |
| Date: | 2019–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stiaac:75-en&r=all |
| By: | Zhu, Lifen; Jin, Songqing; Huang, Jikun; Tian, Yongzhong |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness |
| Date: | 2019–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea19:290686&r=all |
| By: | Ray C. Fair (Cowles Foundation, Yale University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the history of U.S. infrastructure since 1929 and in the process reports an interesting fact about the U.S. economy. Infrastructure as a percent of GDP began a steady decline around 1970, and the government budget deficit became positive and large at roughly the same time. The infrastructure pattern in other countries does not mirror that in the United States, so the United States appears to be a special case. The overall results suggest that the United States became less future oriented beginning around 1970. This change has persisted. This is the interesting fact. Whether it can be explained is doubtful. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure |
| JEL: | H41 H5 H62 |
| Date: | 2019–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2187&r=all |