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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Martin W. Adler; Federica Liberini; Antonio Russo; Jos N. van Ommeren |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of public transport supply on travel times of motor-vehicle and bus users in Rome, Italy. We apply a quasi-experimental methodology exploiting hourly information on public transport service reductions during strikes. We find that a 10 percent reduction in public transit supply increases the travel time of motor-vehicles by about 1.6 percent in the morning peak. The effect on bus travel time is similar. The congestion-relief benefit of public transport is thus sizeable and bus travel time gains account for an important share of it. We also examine the welfare effects of providing bus lanes. All else given, a bus lane reduces bus travel time by at least 29 percent. We find that bus lanes are undersupplied in Rome, despite the potential costs due to reducing capacity available to cars. |
| Keywords: | congestion relief benefit, bus lanes, public transit, strikes |
| JEL: | H23 H42 R41 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7698&r=all |
| By: | Antonio Russo; Martin W. Adler; Federica Liberini; Jos N. van Ommeren |
| Abstract: | We estimate the marginal external congestion cost of motor-vehicle travel for Rome, Italy, using a methodology that accounts for hypercongestion (a situation where congestion decreases a road’s throughput). We show that the external cost – even when roads are not hypercongested – is substantial, equaling about two thirds of the private (time) cost of travel. About one third of this cost is borne by public transport users. Most roads are never hypercongested, but some are hypercongested for more than one hour per day. Hypercongestion accounts for about 40 percent of congestion-related welfare losses. Welfare losses incurred on roads that are hypercongested are substantial, predominantly because of a reduction in speed rather than throughput. Our results suggest policies that reduce congestion can result in important welfare gains. |
| Keywords: | marginal external congestion cost, deadweight loss, hypercongestion, public transport |
| JEL: | D62 R41 H23 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7693&r=all |
| By: | Fingleton, Bernard; Szumilo, Nikodem |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impact of a multi-billion pound investment in Britain's rail transport infrastructure, in the form of high-speed rail links, on wage levels across each of 347 districts of England and Wales. The impacts are based on a dynamic spatial panel model adaptation of standard urban economics based on employment density and commuting patterns. This allows estimation of these global impacts operating via improved commuting times. We demonstrate that while estimates of a traditional market potential approach with fixed effects are to some extent qualitatively and quantitatively similar to our predictions, our predictions allow more heterogeneous effects and give more accurate forecasts. The study finds that on average wages increase by around 2% as employment centres gain improved access to more skilled workers and as spillover effects become spatially more extensive. While most areas see modest positive effects, some locations are negatively affected, in the extreme case by as much as 7%. |
| Keywords: | dynamic spatial panel model; simulation; prediction; transport infrastructure; commuting; wages; regional development |
| JEL: | C33 C53 J31 R40 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2019–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:100014&r=all |
| By: | Geneviève Zembri-Mary (LATTS - Laboratoire Techniques, Territoires et Sociétés - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée, UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine) |
| Abstract: | Introduction : The planning of transport infrastructures in France has been marked by three major developments: the European reform concerning the opening of rail transport to competition, the privatisation of semi-public motorway concession-holding companies, and the use of public-private partnership contracts. This article proposes examining the following research question: how to plan a series of infrastructure projects within an uncertain context? The methodology (i) analyses whether the objectives (traffic, travel time, safety, cost, socio-economic profitability, financial profitability) of the 12 motorway and HSL projects built since the 1990s have been attained with the new planning procedure (such as risk management methods, financial risk assessment, impact assessment, public consultation) (ii) compares the additional costs and delays for three HSL projects according to their type of financing and whether or not they have used these planning procedures. Results The analysis shows that traffic levels are lower than forecasts for 8 projects. The cost is greater than the forecasts for all infrastructures. The socio-economic profitability and the financial profitability are also lower than forecasts for approximately two-thirds of the projects. Conclusion The social, political, institutional and environmental risks are generally well identified and treated by the client, no matter whether public or private.. The risk of additional cost is less well covered. The traffic risk remains a topical issue. Anticipating risks is liable to produce other risks, such as overcosts or opposition. It seems necessary to deepen the traffic forecast studies and to develop the multi criteria analysis method that can take account of the different points of view from the consultation. |
| Keywords: | Motorways . HSL . Planning . Risks . Uncertainty . France |
| Date: | 2017–10–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02146679&r=all |
| By: | Brown, Austin PhD; Fuller, Sam; Gregory, Jack |
| Abstract: | How, and how effectively, different electric vehicle (EV) related policies will work is an immediate and important question for California as the state updates its EV policies. Adding urgency, Assembly Bill (AB) 615, which was signed by the Governor, requires the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to produce a report by December 2018 on related topics, in consultation with the University of California Institute of Transportation Studies (UC ITS). Senate Bill (SB) 498, also signed, also requires CARB reporting with somewhat different but overlapping topics. The need is to define the state of the research on policies to support EV deployment in a manner that is directly usable by California in updating policies. The specific need for CARB is material estimates of these factors (called out in AB 615): "impact of income caps, increased rebates for low-income consumers, and increased outreach on the electric vehicle market, as well as a quantification of emissions reductions attributable to the Clean Vehicle Rebate Project." This white paper is one in a series summarizing recent research findings for the state of California. The topic of the series is evaluating the important components of electric vehicle adoption and its effects. The goals of these white papers are to: 1. Synthesize the best published and on-going research available on each topic; 2. Highlight important research gaps and propose areas for future research; 3. Provide the reader with a framework for understanding the various dimensions of each topic; 4. Make a clear link between research findings and policy implications, if possible; and 5. Be accessible to an informed and interested, but non-technical audience. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Electric vehicles, policy analysis, automobile ownership, market penetration, incentives, emissions, California |
| Date: | 2019–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt28x636nr&r=all |
| By: | Eliasson, Jonas |
| Abstract: | This paper compares the performance of several models forecasting travel time variability for road traffic, using before/after data from the introduction of the Stockholm congestion charges. Models are estimated on before-data, and the models’ forecasts for the after-situation are compared to actual after measurements. The accuracy of the models vary substantially, but several models are able to forecast the benefits from reduced travel time variability with sufficient accuracy to make them useful for decision making. |
| Keywords: | Travel time variability; reliability; cost benefit analysis; congestion pricing |
| JEL: | R41 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:94817&r=all |
| By: | Belloc, Filippo |
| Abstract: | We study hours worked by drivers in the peer-to-peer transportation sector with cross-side network effects. Medallion lease (regulated market), commission-based (Uber-like pay) and profit-sharing ("pure" taxi coop) compensation schemes are compared. Our static model shows that network externalities matter, depending on the number of active drivers. When the number of drivers is limited, in the presence of positive network effects, a regulated system always induces more hours worked, while the commission fee influences the comparative incentives towards effort of Uber-like pay versus profit-sharing. When the number of drivers is infinite (or close to it), the influence of network externalities on optimal effort vanishes. |
| Keywords: | Uber, network effects, ride-sharing, pay schemes, effort, taxi industry |
| JEL: | J22 J33 L91 |
| Date: | 2019–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:95179&r=all |
| By: | Marcos Álvarez-Díaz; Manuel González-Gómez; María Soledad Otero-Giráldez |
| Abstract: | It is widely argued that low-cost carriers (LCCs) lead to an increase in tourism demand. However, there is no conclusive evidence when the airport is located in a region with large diaspora and outbound tourism. To gain insight into the relationship between LCCs and international tourism demand, we analyse whether a causal relationship exists between the number of international LCC passengers at the Porto airport and international tourism demand in the Galicia-North Portugal Euroregion using a vector autoregressive model. We evaluate the dynamics of the impacts of the LCC passengers on international tourism demand in a tourism demand model framework. The number of low-cost international passengers has a positive influence on international tourism demand in the regions of North Portugal and Galicia (Spain). Furthermore, the confidence interval for estimated elasticity overlaps the values estimated for main tourism destinations in previous studies in the Iberian Peninsula. |
| Keywords: | Low cost carriers, elasticity, Euroregion Galicia-North of Portugal, international tourism, cointegration |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vig:wpaper:1902&r=all |
| By: | Matthias Flückiger; Erik Hornung; Mario Larch; Markus Ludwig; Allard Mees |
| Abstract: | We show that the creation of the first integrated pan-European transport network during Roman times influences economic integration over two millennia. Drawing on spatially highly disaggregated data on excavated Roman ceramics, we document that interregional trade was strongly influenced by connectivity within the network. Today, these connectivity differentials continue to influence cross-regional firm investment behaviour. Continuity is largely explained by selective infrastructure routing and cultural integration due to bilateral convergence in preferences and values. Both plausibly arise from network-induced history of repeated socio-economic interaction. We show that our results are Roman-connectivity specific and do not reflect pre-existing patterns of exchange. |
| Keywords: | economic integration, Roman trade, transport network connectivity, business links, cultural similarity |
| JEL: | F14 F15 F21 N73 R12 R40 O18 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7740&r=all |
| By: | Arthur Charpentier (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UQAM - Département de mathématiques [Montréal] - UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal); Alfred Galichon (CIMS - Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences [New York] - New York University [New York]); Lucas Vernet (Sciences Po - Sciences Po, Banque de France - Banque de France - Banque de France) |
| Abstract: | This article presents a set of tools for the modeling of a spatial allocation problem in a large geographic market and gives examples of applications. In our settings, the market is described by a network that maps the cost of travel between each pair of adjacent locations. Two types of agents are located at the nodes of this network. The buyers choose the most competitive sellers depending on their prices and the cost to reach them. Their utility is assumed additive in both these quantities. Each seller, taking as given other sellers prices, sets her own price to have a demand equal to the one we observed. We give a linear programming formulation for the equilibrium conditions. After formally introducing our model we apply it on two examples: prices offered by petrol stations and quality of services provided by maternity wards. These examples illustrate the applicability of our model to aggregate demand, rank prices and estimate cost structure over the network. We insist on the possibility of applications to large scale data sets using modern linear programming solvers such as Gurobi. In addition to this paper we released a R toolbox to implement our results and an online tutorial (http://optimalnetwork.github.io) . |
| Date: | 2019–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02173210&r=all |
| By: | Xiaofang Dong; Siqi Zheng; Mathew Kahn |
| Date: | 2019–07–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wyi:wpaper:002502&r=all |
| By: | Kamalow, Raffael (University of Hamburg); Siedler, Thomas (University of Hamburg) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the short-term mortality effects of two age-based restrictions on legal access to alcohol in Germany. We exploit sharp differences in legal access to alcohol at 16 and 18 years by implementing a regression discontinuity design. We find discontinuous increases in deaths at both age cutoffs, which are mainly driven by a "novice driver effect", whereas legal access to alcohol plays a marginal role at most. Overall, our results indicate that a stepwise introduction to alcohol has, at most, a minor impact on drunk driving and mortality at age 16 and 18 years. This study thus provides fresh impetus to the ongoing debate on the "optimal" MLDA legislation. |
| Keywords: | mortality, motor vehicle fatalities, minimum legal drinking age, regression discontinuity design |
| JEL: | I10 I18 C26 C31 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12456&r=all |
| By: | Eliasson, Jonas |
| Abstract: | A common argument against car use taxes, such as congestion charges and fuel taxes, is that they hurt poor groups disproportionately. This chapter discusses this argument, explains methodological issues in distributional analyses and summarizes typical empirical findings. How distributional effects of a car use tax should be viewed depends on whether the purpose of the tax is fiscal or price-correcting (i.e. intended to make the cost of driving better reflect social costs). Overall, average payments of car use taxes tend to be approximately proportional to income, with a small tendency to regressivity in rich countries and progressivity in poor countries. However, there may substantial variation within an income group, which may be problematic if a tax primarily has a fiscal purpose. Distributional analyses of public revenue sources and public spending should in general be kept separate, since the definitions of what constitutes distributional neutrality often differ between taxes and expenditures. |
| Keywords: | concentration index; congestion charges; distributional effects; equity; fuel tax; Suits index |
| JEL: | R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:94328&r=all |
| By: | Gaelle Fauchard (CRINI - Centre de recherche sur les identités, les nations et l'interculturalité - UFR FLCE - Université de Nantes - UFR Faculté des Langues et Cultures Etrangères - UN - Université de Nantes - UN - Université de Nantes) |
| Date: | 2017–12–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02144532&r=all |