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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Morteza Taiebat; Samuel Stolper; Ming Xu |
| Abstract: | Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) are expected to yield significant improvements in safety, energy efficiency, and time utilization. However, their net effect on energy and environmental outcomes is unclear. Higher fuel economy reduces the energy required per mile of travel, but it also reduces the fuel cost of travel, incentivizing more travel and causing an energy "rebound effect." Moreover, CAVs are predicted to vastly reduce the time cost of travel, inducing further increases in travel and energy use. In this paper, we forecast the induced travel and rebound from CAVs using data on existing travel behavior. We develop a microeconomic model of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) choice under income and time constraints; then we use it to estimate elasticities of VMT demand with respect to fuel and time costs, with fuel cost data from the 2017 United States National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and wage-derived predictions of travel time cost. Our central estimate of the combined price elasticity of VMT demand is -0.4, which differs substantially from previous estimates. We also find evidence that wealthier households have more elastic demand, and that households at all income levels are more sensitive to time costs than to fuel costs. We use our estimated elasticities to simulate VMT and energy use impacts of full, private CAV adoption under a range of possible changes to the fuel and time costs of travel. We forecast a 2-47% increase in travel demand for an average household. Our results indicate that backfire - i.e., a net rise in energy use - is a possibility, especially in higher income groups. This presents a stiff challenge to policy goals for reductions in not only energy use but also traffic congestion and local and global air pollution, as CAV use increases. |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1902.00382&r=all |
| By: | Elisabetta Cornago (OECD); Alexandros Dimitropoulos (OECD); Walid Oueslati (OECD) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of congestion pricing on the demand for clean transport modes. To this end, it draws on an empirical analysis of the effect of Milan’s congestion charge on the use of bike sharing. The analysis indicates that congestion pricing increases daily bike-sharing use by at least 5% in the short term. Extending the schedule of the congestion charge in the early evening increases bike-sharing use in the affected time window by 12%. The impact of the policy on bike-sharing use mainly occurs through the reduction of road traffic congestion, which makes cycling safer and more pleasant. The findings of the study indicate that policies aiming to reduce car use also have positive repercussions on the uptake of green mobility options. Relying solely on direct incentives for cycling, which often involve infrastructure projects, is likely insufficient to remove barriers to bike use. |
| Keywords: | bike sharing, Congestion pricing, sustainable mobility, urban road pricing |
| JEL: | Q58 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2019–02–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:143-en&r=all |
| By: | Ali Ardeshiri; Akshay Vij |
| Abstract: | This study develops a hierarchical latent class choice model that captures the concurrent influence of lifestyles on household residential neighbourhood location and individual transport mode use decisions. The model is empirically evaluated using data from the 2010-12 California Household Travel Survey. The model identifies six household-level classes that differ in terms of their preferences for different neighbourhood attributes when deciding where to live and their household characteristics. Coincidentally, the model also identifies six individual-level classes that differ in terms of the travel modes that they consider when deciding how to travel, their sensitivity to different level-of-service attributes, and their individual characteristics. Household preferences for neighbourhood types and individual preferences for travel modes show expected patterns of correlation. In general, households that prefer to live in suburban neighbourhoods are more likely to consist of individuals that are car-dependent, and households that prefer to live in inner-city neighbourhoods are more likely to consist of individuals that are multimodal. However, our analysis also reveals interesting patterns of deviation. For example, high-income migrant households and median-income white households display strong preferences for suburban neighbourhoods, but individuals belonging to these households also have a high likelihood of being multimodal, with a strong preference for bicycling. We discuss how these patterns of correlation can be used to inform transport and land use policy in novel ways. |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1902.01986&r=all |
| By: | Stéphane Gauthier (PSE - Paris School of Economics, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Fanny Henriet (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | We study the optimal design of consumption taxes when both global and local externalities matter. Local externalities make the social impact of the consumption of externality-generating commodities varying across consumers. A typical example involves the greater damage caused by pollution from urban fuel consumers. We provide a condition for the validity of the targeting principle according to which externality concerns should only fall on the taxes on externality-generating commodities. When this condition is satisfied, one can decompose the tax on an externality-generating commodity into equity/efficiency and Pigovian contributions. The Pigovian contribution should exceed the average social damage if the fuel consumption of the greatest polluters is more responsive to fuel price. In an empirical illustration we find that the fuel tax in France is mostly explained by Pigovian considerations. |
| Keywords: | Pigovian tax,targeting principle,local externality,pollution,commodity taxes |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01826330&r=all |
| By: | Heather Klemick; Elizabeth Kopits; Ann Wolverton |
| Abstract: | Engineering-based studies of energy efficiency often find that firms and consumers fail to adopt technologies that appear to provide net private benefits absent regulation. We examine the recent empirical literature on the extent to which expected future fuel costs are reflected in vehicle prices and therefore valued by consumers when making purchase decisions. These studies improve upon the prior literature due to their use of highly disaggregated panel data that allows for defensible identification strategies. These studies found that vehicle purchase prices reflect about 50 to 100 percent of future fuel expenses, assuming static consumer expectations about future gasoline prices and a discount rate of five to six percent. Recent regulatory analyses have estimated the benefits of more stringent vehicle standards implicitly assuming that no improvements in fuel economy will occur in the baseline, absent regulation. This assumption is consistent with consumers placing no value on future fuel costs when making vehicle purchase decision. The recent empirical evidence supports using a range of consumer valuation assumptions and applying this range consistently in the baseline and regulatory scenarios when modeling consumer purchase and firm investment decisions. |
| Keywords: | Consumer valuation, fuel economy, vehicle purchase decisions, benefit-cost analysis |
| JEL: | D12 D22 R41 Q58 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nev:wpaper:wp201902&r=all |
| By: | Fabre, Anaïs; Straub, Stéphane |
| Abstract: | This paper summarizes what is known about the impact of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) in infrastructure (energy, transport, water and sanitation, and telecommunications), education, and health. It reviews evaluations of the effectiveness of PPPs and, whenever possible, the implications for coverage and affordability. For infrastructure, there is some evidence of PPPs leading to gains in labor productivity, as most transitions to private participation have entailed significant labor downsizing, but only mixed support for improvements in total factor productivity or quality, coverage, and affordability. Selection issues plague most available studies, calling for caution when considering the conclusions. For education, micro-level studies shows that PPPs have the potential to increase enrollment and respond to a growing demand for education, but that their impact on educational outcomes appears to depend greatly on the institutional details and the scale of the programs considered. Finally, PPPs appear to be likely to increase socio-economic and ethnic segregation in education systems. Finally, there is inconclusive evidence of an impact of PPPs on health service utilization, the quality of services, patient satisfaction and health-related outcomes. The review points to the need to identify the reasons for service under-utilization, such as lack of information on the side of users, poor quality of services, before implementing interventions, and to combine demand- and supply-side policies if needed. Overall, more work appears to be due to rigorously evaluate the impact of PPPs, especially regarding infrastructure and health. |
| Keywords: | Public private partnership; evaluation; infrastructure; education; health |
| JEL: | H54 I11 I21 L33 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:33287&r=all |