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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Danielis, Romeo; Giansoldati, Marco; Scorrano, Mariangela |
| Abstract: | Introduction. The question of whether battery electric vehicles (BEVs) emit more or less CO2 than Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs) and Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) along the entire life cycle is still a debated topic in the scientific literature and in the popular press. This paper contributes to the debate by providing an estimate for the best-selling cars in Italy. The methodology. On the basis of the VCA database reporting the CO2 emissions of most of the cars on sale in Italy in 2016, we perform a life-cycle analysis including fuel and electricity production, car\battery manufacturing and disposal, and direct and indirect emissions during the car use. Results. Currently, the BEVs emit 24% less CO2 than gasoline ICEVs, 26% less than diesel ICEVs, and 12% less than HEVs. In 2026 the savings could further increase to 38%, 40% and 24%, respectively, assuming the past trends towards a cleaner electricity mix and no improvement in the conventional and HEVs technologies Conclusion. BEVs should be promoted as an alternative to the ICEVs not only because they reduce air and noise pollution in urban areas but also because they contribute to decrease global CO2 emissions. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sit:wpaper:19_1&r=all |
| By: | Gibbons, Stephen; Heblich, Stephan; Pinchbeck, Ted |
| Abstract: | Transport investment is a popular policy instrument and many recent studies have investigated whether new infrastructure generates economic benefits and has spatial economic impacts. Our work approaches the question differently and looks at what happens when a substantial part of a national railway network is dismantled, as happened during the 1950s, 60s and 70s in Britain. Part of this disinvestment occurred following controversial reports on railway profitability and structure in the early 1960s – a course of action known colloquially as ‘the Beeching Axe’ after the author of the reports. The removal of railways is often blamed for the decline of rural areas and peripheral towns in post-war Britain. This rail disinvestment program was targeted at removal of underused and unprofitable lines and not specifically targeted at local economic performance. Even so, we find that there is a relationship between pre-war population decline and the depth of the rail cuts in the post 1950 period. Conditional on these pre-trends, we show that loss of access by rail did cause relative population decline, decline in the proportion of skilled workers, and decline in the proportion of young people in affected areas. The elasticity of population with respect to changes in centrality (or market access) is around 0.3 in our main estimates. Instrumental variables estimates based on the network structure of the cuts yield higher elasticities. An implication of these findings is that rail transport infrastructure plays an important role in shaping the spatial structure of the economy. |
| Keywords: | rail; infrastructure; Beeching |
| JEL: | H54 R1 R4 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:91684&r=all |
| By: | Martin Adler (VU University; AtAdlerAdvisory, The Netherlands); Stefanie Peer (Vienna University of Economics and Business); Tanja Sinozic (Institute of Technology Assessment (ITA), Austrian Academy of Sciences (OEAW)) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the implications of autonomous-connected-electric-shared vehicles (ACES) for public finance, which have so far been widely ignored. In OECD countries, 5-12% of federal and up to 30% of local tax revenue are currently from fuel and vehicle taxation. The diffusion of ACES will likely reduce these important sources of government revenues, while also affecting transport-related government expenditures. We argue that the realization of socioeconomic benefits of ACES depends on the implementation of tailored public finance policies. In particular, the introduction of road tolls in line with ‘user pays’ and ‘polluter pays’ principles will become more attractive. Moreover, innovation in taxation schemes to fit the changing technological circumstances may alter the (relative) importance of levels of governance in transport policy making, likely shifting power towards local (in particular urban) governmental levels. We finally argue that due to path-dependencies, and the risk of lock-in effects in sub-optimal public finance regimes, further research and near-term policy action regarding ACES is required. |
| Keywords: | autonomous connected electric shared vehicles; public finance; taxation; fiscal revenues; fiscal expenditures,disruptive technologies; path-dependency; technological transition; political economy; multilevel-governance |
| JEL: | R40 R50 H21 H23 H54 H71 O18 O33 |
| Date: | 2019–01–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20190005&r=all |
| By: | Treb Allen; Costas Arkolakis |
| Abstract: | We develop a general equilibrium geographic framework to characterize the welfare effect of transportation infrastructure investments. We tackle three distinct but conflating challenges: First, we offer an analytical characterization of the routing problem and, in particular, how infrastructure investment between any two connected locations decreases the total trade costs between all pairs of locations. Second, we characterize how this cost reduction affects welfare within a standard general equilibrium geography setup where market inefficiencies arise due to agglomeration and dispersion spillovers. Finally, we show how our framework admits analytical characterizations of traffic congestion, which creates a critical – albeit tractable – feedback loop between trade costs and the general equilibrium economic system. We apply these results to calculate the welfare effects of improving each of the thousands of segments of the U.S. national highway network. We find large but heterogeneous welfare effects, with the largest gains concentrated in metropolitan areas and along important trading corridors. |
| JEL: | H54 R12 R13 R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25487&r=all |
| By: | Danielis, Romeo; Scorrano, Mariangela; Giansoldati, Marco; Rotaris, Lucia |
| Abstract: | We perform a meta-analysis of the studies that evaluate the importance attributed by the consumers to the driving range of the Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs). The paper updates and extends the paper by Dimitropoulos et al. (2013), including primary studies up to the year 2018. It tests whether the conclusions drawn by Dimitropoulos et al. (2013) still hold true given the many changes that occurred in the last years concerning BEVS’ uptake in the market, growing consumers’ direct and indirect experience with electric cars, vehicles’ increased range, and growing diffusion of the charging infrastructure. We carried out two analyses: a) the estimation of the summary effect size of the driving range utility coefficient, and b) a meta-regression of the willingness to pay for a 1-km increase in the BEVs’ driving range. The main findings are that: a) the importance attributed to the BEV’s range by the consumers has not decreased; b) there is a very large dispersion of the estimates around the mean values, implying that there is a large heterogeneity due to differences in respondents’ needs, vehicle segments and modelling techniques. The meta-regression allowed us to further explore and test statistically these conclusions. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sit:wpaper:19_2&r=all |
| By: | Ensslen, Axel; Ringler, Philipp; Dörr, Lasse; Jochem, Patrick; Zimmermann, Florian; Fichtner, Wolf |
| Abstract: | Over the past few years, registration figures of plug-in electric vehicles have increased rapidly in industrialized countries. This could cause considerable mid- to long-term effects on electricity markets. To tackle potential challenges specific to electric power systems, we develop a load-shift-incentivizing electricity tariff that is suitable for electric vehicle users and analyze the tariff scheme in three parts. First, acceptance is analyzed based on surveys conducted among fleet managers and electric vehicle users. Corresponding results are used to calibrate the tariff. Secondly, load flexibilities of electric vehicle charging are used in an agent-based electricity market simulation model of the French and German wholesale electricity markets to simulate corresponding market impacts. Thirdly, the charging manager’s (‘aggregator’) business model is analyzed. Our results reveal that the tariff is highly suitable for incentivizing vehicle users to provide load flexibilities, which consequently increase the contribution margins of the charging managers. The main drawback is the potential for ‘avalanche effects’ on wholesale electricity markets increasing charging mangers’ expenditures, especially in France. |
| Keywords: | E-Mobility Electric vehicles Controlled charging Electricity markets |
| JEL: | O33 R42 |
| Date: | 2018–02–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:91543&r=all |
| By: | Congressional Budget Office |
| Abstract: | The Congressional Budget Office regularly documents trends in public spending for transportation and water infrastructure. There are six types of infrastructure that are paid for largely by the public sector: highways, mass transit and rail, aviation, water transportation, water resources, and water utilities. |
| JEL: | H54 H76 R42 R53 |
| Date: | 2018–10–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:report:54539&r=all |
| By: | Congressional Budget Office |
| Abstract: | State and local governments own much of the nation’s transportation and water infrastructure, such as highways, mass transit systems, airports, and water treatment systems. The federal government helps states and localities finance investments in such infrastructure through tax-exempt bonds, tax credit bonds, state revolving funds and infrastructure banks, and direct federal credit programs. |
| JEL: | H54 H74 H81 H77 R51 |
| Date: | 2018–10–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:report:54549&r=all |
| By: | Heblich, Stephan; Redding, Stephen J.; Sturm, Daniel M. |
| Abstract: | Modern metropolitan areas involve large concentrations of economic activity and the transport of millions of people each day between their residence and workplace. We use the revolution in transport technology from the invention of steam railways, newly-constructed spatially-disaggregated data for London from 1801-1921, and a quantitative urban model to provide evidence on the role of these commuting flows in supporting such concentrations of economic activity. Steam railways dramatically reduced travel times and permitted the first large scale separation of workplace and residence. We show that our model is able to account for the observed changes in the organization of economic activity, both qualitatively and quantitatively. In counterfactuals, we find that removing the entire railway network reduces the population and the value of land and buildings in Greater London by 20 percent or more, and brings down commuting into the City of London from more than 370,000 to less than 60,000 workers. |
| Keywords: | agglomeration; urbanization; transportation |
| JEL: | O18 R12 R40 |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:91695&r=all |
| By: | Danielis, Romeo; Giansoldati, Marco; Scorrano, Mariangela |
| Abstract: | The paper presents a total cost of ownership (TCO) model, implemented with data on Italian cars with different propulsion systems. The model is applied to three case studies: a) a comparison between the best-selling (battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs); b) a pairwise comparison between comparable BEVs and ICEVs of the same brand; c) the impact of urban parking and access policies favoring the BEVs. We find that in Italy the purchasing cost of the BEVs is about 15,000 euro higher than the 10 best-selling ICEVs. Such a gap is not compensated by the lower variable costs unless a very high annual distance (20,579 km per year for 10 years) is driven, which is much above the current Italian average. Such a finding helps explaining the low BEVs’ market share in Italy. The difference between the consumer-oriented TCO and the society-oriented TCO, which represents the amount of the subsidy economically justifiable on the basis of the social costs, varies between €315 and €581. If the social costs are internalized, the overall (consumer-oriented and society-oriented) TCO would be still lower for the ICEVs than the BEVs. The pairwise comparison suggests that at least a 4,000- 6,000 euro subsidy would be needed to balance the BEVs’ unfavorable TCO. Finally, we find that parking and access fees favoring BEVs at the urban level could have a significant impact on reducing the distance driven needed to reach the consumer-oriented TCO break-even point. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sit:wpaper:19_3&r=all |
| By: | Graham, Daniel J.; Gibbons, Stephen |
| Abstract: | This paper is concerned with the Wider Economic Impacts (WEIs) of transport improvements that arise via scale economies of agglomeration. It reviews the background theory and empirical evidence on agglomeration, explains the link between transport and agglomeration, and describes a three step procedure to appraise agglomeration impacts for transport schemes within Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA). The paper concludes with a set of recommendations for future empirical work on agglomeration and transport appraisal. |
| Keywords: | agglomeration; transport; cost benefit analysis |
| JEL: | R1 R4 |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:91682&r=all |
| By: | Cohen, Jeffrey P. (University of Connecticut); Coughlin, Cletus C. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Crews, Jonas C. (Walton Family Foundation) |
| Abstract: | Using Lorenz-type curves, means tests, ordinary least squares, and locally weighted regressions (LWR), we examine the relative burdens of whites, blacks, and Hispanics in Georgia from road and air traffic noise. We find that whites bear less noise than either blacks or Hispanics and that blacks tend to experience more traffic noise than Hispanics. While every Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) showed that blacks experienced relatively more noise than average, such a result did not hold for Hispanics in roughly half of the MSAs. We find much heterogeneity across Census tracts using LWR. For most Census tracts, higher black and Hispanic population shares are associated with increased noise. However, 5.5 percent of the coefficients for blacks and 18.9 percent for Hispanics are negative, suggesting larger population shares are associated with less noise. The noise LWR marginal effects for black populations across most tracts in the state are consistent with diminishing marginal noise from additional black population, while those in Atlanta exhibit diminishing marginal noise for Hispanics. In many regions of the state where the potential for health-damaging noise exists, we find relatively high disproportionality in noise experienced by the black and Hispanic populations compared to the rest of the overall population. Our findings underscore the importance of using nonparametric estimation approaches to unveil spatial heterogeneity in applied urban and housing economics analyses. |
| Keywords: | traffic noise; Lorenz curves; nonparametric regressions |
| JEL: | C25 Q53 R41 |
| Date: | 2018–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2019-004&r=all |
| By: | Han Qiu |
| Abstract: | In this study, we consider traveler coupon redemption behavior from the perspective of an urban mobility service. Assuming traveler behavior is in accordance with the principle of utility maximization, we first formulate a baseline dynamical model for traveler's expected future trip sequence under the framework of Markov decision processes and from which we derive approximations of the optimal coupon redemption policy. However, we find that this baseline model cannot explain perfectly observed coupon redemption behavior of traveler for a car-sharing service. To resolve this deviation from utility-maximizing behavior, we suggest a hypothesis that travelers may not be aware of all coupons available to them. Based on this hypothesis, we formulate an inattention model on unawareness, which is complementary to the existing models of inattention, and incorporate it into the baseline model. Estimation results show that the proposed model better explains the coupon redemption dataset than the baseline model. We also conduct a simulation experiment to quantify the negative impact of unawareness on coupons' promotional effects. These results can be used by mobility service operators to design effective coupon distribution schemes in practice. |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1901.05070&r=all |
| By: | M. Rouhani, Omid |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I briefly review the key methods to evaluate transportation projects. These methods are: Financial analysis; Cost benefit (economic analysis); Multi-criteria analysis; Cost-effectiveness analysis; Social welfare analysis; and Risk analysis (Monte Carlo simulation). The importance of understanding these methods lies in the fact that transportation projects offer huge social benefits and costs; some are impossible or very complex to measure in monetary terms. |
| Keywords: | Project evaluation methods, Transport projects, Social cost benefit analysis, Multi-criteria analysis, and Social welfare analysis. |
| JEL: | H43 R42 R58 |
| Date: | 2019–01–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:91451&r=all |
| By: | Chris Eves |
| Abstract: | Any increase in airport operations or development, with increased flight movements, tends to be an issue in major cities and towns. Whenever such proposals are first advertised there is usually an increased public backlash based on a number of issues such as impact on lifestyle, health as well as the premise that they believe that the value of their residential properties will decrease and it will become more difficult to sell their properties.Since the early 1970s there have been an increasing number of academic research papers demonstrating that aircraft noise reduces residential property values. At the same time there have also been a number of popular media reports that state value features such as proximity to the CBD, good transport links, access to good schools and services are more important than the location of the house under a flight path or close to an airport. This is particularly the case in very high density cities, with airports close to the major business centres.This study compares median and average house prices over the period 1988 to 2013; across 36 suburbs of Brisbane to assess the long term impact of aircraft noise on residential property capital growth and volatility. These suburbs cover locations directly under the existing flight paths, areas of differing levels of noise complaints and locations not under flight paths nor subject to aircraft noise complaints. All sales transactions for these suburbs have been analysed to determine if there is any impact of aircraft noise on the long term investment performance of the Brisbane residential property market.Results show that suburbs under flight paths in Brisbane, Australia subject to aircraft noise on a long term capital gain basis have performed equally, if not better, than less or not affected locations in Brisbane based. On average annual capital returns and risk/return ratios for a range of suburbs from high socio-economic status to low middle socio-economic status have performed at similar levels regardless of location under flight paths. The movement in sales volume from year to year has also been very similar indicating that affected locations do not always result in reduced sales volume activity. |
| Keywords: | Aircraft noise; aircraft noise complaints; property performance; property prices; Residential Property |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lre:wpaper:lares_2017_paper_24&r=all |
| By: | Devi Brands (VU Amsterdam); Erik (E.T.) Verhoef (VU Amsterdam); Jasper Knockaert (VU Amsterdam); Paul (P.R.) Koster (VU Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | Congestion levels have grown substantially in recent years, while the traditional economic response to congestion – road pricing – remains politically infeasible in most locations. Tradable permits are likely to be a more viable alternative, because they do not require a net financial flow from road users to the government. It is therefore the right moment to design and empirically test tradable permit schemes for managing urban mobility. This paper presents and empirically tests a complete design of a market for tradable permits, both in terms of the conceptual set-up of the market as well as its technical implementation. The design is evaluated against a number of criteria, including: transparency and containment of transaction costs, stability of permit prices in relation to the dynamic equilibrium on the mobility market and the prevention of undesirable speculation and fraud. We present evidence of the empirical functioning of this market, using the results of a conducted lab-in-the-field experiment with virtual mobility behaviour and real financial incentives. |
| Keywords: | Mobility credits; Tradable credits scheme; Permit experiment; Permit market |
| JEL: | R41 R48 H23 Q58 |
| Date: | 2019–01–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20190007&r=all |
| By: | Roberto Bonfatti (University of Padova; University of Nottingham); Yuan Gu (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Steven (S.) Poelhekke (University of Auckland; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | Africa's interior-to-coast roads are well suited to export natural resources, but not to support regional trade. Are they the optimal response to geography and comparative advantage, or the result of suboptimal political distortions? We investigate the political determinants of road paving in West Africa across the 1965-2012 period. Controlling for geography and the endogeneity of democratization, we show that autocracies tend to connect natural resource deposits to ports, while the networks expanded in a less interior-to-coast way in periods of democracy. This result suggests that Africa's interior-to-coast roads are at least in part the result of suboptimal political distortions.Africa's interior-to-coast roads are well suited to export natural resources, but not to support regional trade. Are they the optimal response to geography and comparative advantage, or the result of suboptimal political distortions? We investigate the political determinants of road paving in West Africa across the 1965-2012 period. Controlling for geography and the endogeneity of democratization, we show that autocracies tend to connect natural resource deposits to ports, while the networks expanded in a less interior-to-coast way in periods of democracy. This result suggests that Africa's interior-to-coast roads are at least in part the result of suboptimal political distortions. |
| Keywords: | political economy; democracy; infrastructure; natural resources; development |
| JEL: | P16 P26 D72 H54 O18 Q32 |
| Date: | 2019–01–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20190006&r=all |
| By: | Congressional Budget Office |
| Abstract: | In December 2016, the Navy released a new force structure assessment that called for a fleet of 355 ships—substantially larger than the current force of 283 ships. This report focuses on one of several approaches that the Navy could use to increase the size of its fleet: reactivating decommissioned ships. It draws insights from past experiences that might inform lawmakers’ decisions about reactivating retired ships in the future. |
| JEL: | H56 H57 L62 L64 N42 N62 N72 |
| Date: | 2018–05–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:report:53820&r=all |
| By: | Jennifer Heissel; Claudia Persico; David Simon |
| Abstract: | We examine the effect of school traffic pollution on student outcomes by leveraging variation in wind patterns for schools the same distance from major highways. We compare within-student achievement for students transitioning between schools near highways, where one school has had greater levels of pollution because it is downwind of a highway. Students who move from an elementary/middle school that feeds into a “downwind” middle/high school in the same zip code experience decreases in test scores, more behavioral incidents, and more absences, relative to when they transition to an upwind school. Even within zip codes, microclimates can contribute to inequality. |
| JEL: | I20 I24 I3 Q53 R4 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25489&r=all |