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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Pernestål Brenden , Anna (CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI)); Kristoffersson , Ida (VTI) |
| Abstract: | The development of driverless vehicles is fast, and the technology has the potential to significantly affect the transport system, society and environment. However, there are still many open questions regarding what this development will look like and there are several counteracting forces. This paper addresses the effects of driverless vehicles by performing a literature review of twenty papers that use simulation to model effects of driverless vehicles. By combing and analysing the results from these simulation studies, an overall picture of the effects of driverless vehicles is presented. The paper shows that focus in existing literature has been on effects of driverless taxi applications in urban areas. Some parameters, such as trip cost and waiting time, show small variations between the reviewed papers. Other parameters, such as vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT), show larger variations and depend heavily on the assumptions concerning value of time and level of sharing. In general, increases in VKT are predicted for most applications. Ride sharing has the potential to reduce VKT, and thereby energy consumption and congestion, but the analysis indicates that a sufficient level of ride sharing to reduce VKT will not be achieved without incentives or regulations. Furthermore, the VKT of driverless vehicles is unevenly distributed from a time and space perspective, with larger increases in VKT during peak hours than in off-peak, and in the suburbs compared to city centres. The reviewed papers provide a first prediction of factors such as waiting time, VKT and trip cost, in particular for urban areas and for schemes where there is one service provider present. To get a deeper understanding of the effects of driverless vehicles, aspects such as local spatial considerations, e.g. at pick-up stations, and more complex schemes with competition between service providers should be studied. Furthermore, there is a need for sensitivity analyses regarding travel demand. |
| Keywords: | Driverless vehicle; Automated vehicle; Autonomous taxi; Traffic simulation; Societal effects |
| JEL: | R40 R41 |
| Date: | 2018–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2018_011&r=tre |
| By: | Guy Meunier; Jean-Pierre Ponssard |
| Abstract: | We analyze the impact of indirect network effects in the deployment of zero emission vehicles in a static partial equilibrium model. In most theoretical analysis direct and indirect effects are conflated, and relatively few authors have explicitly considered indirect network effects. We also introduce the market power of vehicle producers and scale effects in the production function. The model exhibits a multiplicity of local social extrema and of market equilibria, suggesting a possibility of lock-in. The optimal set of subsidies is derived so that the Pareto dominating market equilibrium would coincide with the social optimum. This framework is applied to the case of the fuel cell electric (hydrogen) vehicles. |
| Keywords: | E-mobility, network effects, joint incentives for infrastructure and car rebates |
| JEL: | C61 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7026&r=tre |
| By: | Montserrat Guillen (Riskcenter- IREA and Department of Econometrics, University of Barcelona, Av. Diagonal, 690, 08034. Barcelona, Spain); Ana M. Pérez-Marín (Riskcenter- IREA and Department of Econometrics, University of Barcelona, Av. Diagonal, 690, 08034. Barcelona, Spain); Mercedes Ayuso (Riskcenter- IREA and Department of Econometrics, University of Barcelona, Av. Diagonal, 690, 08034. Barcelona, Spain); Jens Perch Nielsen (Cass Business School, City, University of London, 106 Bunhill Row, London EC1Y 8TZ, United Kingdom.) |
| Abstract: | Most automobile insurance databases contain a large number of policy holders with zero claims. This high frequency of zeros may reflect the fact that some insureds make little use of their vehicle, or that they do not wish to make a claim for small accidents in order to avoid an increase in their premium, but it might also be because of good driving. We analyse information on exposure to risk and driving habits using telematics data from a Pay-as-you-Drive sample of insureds. We include distance travelled per year as part of an offset in a zero- inflated Poisson model to predict the excess of zeros. We show the existence of a learning effect for large values of distance travelled, so that longer driving should result in higher premium, but there should be a discount for drivers that accumulate longer distances over time due to the increased proportion of zero claims. We confirm that speed limit violations and driving in urban areas increase the expected number of accident claims. We discuss how telematics information can be used to design better insurance and to improve traffic safety. |
| Keywords: | Telematics, pay-as-you-drive, mileage. JEL classification:C35, C55, G22. |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:201810&r=tre |
| By: | Montserrat Guillen (Riskcenter- IREA and Department of Econometrics, University of Barcelona, Av. Diagonal, 690, 08034. Barcelona, Spain); Ana M. Pérez-Marín (Riskcenter- IREA and Department of Econometrics, University of Barcelona, Av. Diagonal, 690, 08034. Barcelona, Spain) |
| Abstract: | The use of advanced driver assistance systems and the transition towards semi-autonomous vehicles are expected to contribute to a lower frequency of motor accidents and to have a significant impact for the automobile insurance industry, as rating methods must be revised to ensure that risks are correctly measured. We analyze telematics information and usagebased insurance research to identify the effect of driving patterns on the risk of accident. This is used as a starting point for addressing risk quantification and safety for vehicles than can control speed. Here we estimate the effect of excess speed on the risk of accidents with a real telematics data set. We show scenarios for a reduction of speed limit violations and the consequent decrease in the expected number of accident claims. If excess speed could be eliminated, then the expected number of accident claims could be reduced to half of its initial value, applying the average conditions of our data. As a consequence, insurance premiums also diminish. |
| Keywords: | Usage-based-insurance, ratemaking, semi-autonomous vehicles, advanced driver assistance systems. JEL classification:G22. |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:201811&r=tre |
| By: | Ostrovsky, Michael (Stanford University); Schwarz, Michael (Microsoft) |
| Abstract: | We study the interplay between autonomous transportation, carpooling, and road pricing. We discuss how improvements in these technologies, and interactions among them, will affect transportation markets. Our main results show how to achieve socially efficient outcomes in such markets, taking into account the costs of driving, road capacity, and commuter preferences. An important component of the efficient outcome is the socially optimal matching of carpooling riders. Our approach shows how to set road prices and how to share the costs of driving and tolls among carpooling riders in a way that implements the efficient outcome. |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3636&r=tre |
| By: | Anna Bottasso (Department of Economics, University of Genova, Italy); Maurizio Conti (Department of Economics, University of Genova, Italy); Davide Vannoni (Department of Economics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino, Italy) |
| Abstract: | In this study we consider a sample of the largest UK airports in order to estimate, for the first time for this sector, a multiproduct cost function using a flexible technology that nests most of the specifications commonly employed in the empirical literature. Another novelty of this work is that we provide estimates of (quasi) scope economies for the airport industry. Our main results suggest the existence of (quasi) scope economies that tend to decline with the size of the airport. The finding on quasi scope economies coupled with a set of cost complementarity tests suggest that cost savings mainly arise from the joint provision of services for national and international passengers and, to a lesser extent, to the addition of cargo transport activities; in turn, the production of non aeronautical services seems to be characterized by anti-cost complementarities. Finally, we confirm previous findings in the literature that global economies of scale are exhausted at about five million passengers in the case of the UK airport industry. |
| Keywords: | Scope and Scale Economies, Composite Cost Function, Airports. |
| JEL: | L93 L23 C3 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tur:wpapnw:056&r=tre |
| By: | Ivankina, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The work is devoted to one of the most acute problems of large cities of Russia - the transport system of a metropolis. Modern large cities are developing at such a rapid pace that their transport infrastructure does not have time to develop and transform at the same pace in accordance with the growing number of residents and jobs created in the city and the nearest suburbs. One of the ways to solve this problem is to develop a rational structure and technology for the functioning of Transport Interchange Hubs |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:051804&r=tre |
| By: | Hélène Bouscasse (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | Mode choice depends on observable characteristics of the transport modes and of the decision maker, but also on unobservable characteristics, known as latent variables. By means of an integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV) model, which is a combination of structural equation model and discrete choice model, it is theoretically possible to integrate both types of variables in a psychologically and economically sound mode choice model. To achieve such a goal requires clear positioning on the four dimensions covered by ICLV models: survey methods, econometrics, psychology and economics. This article presents a comprehensive survey of the ICLV literature applied to mode choice modelling. I review how latent variables are measured and incorporated in the ICLV models, how they contribute to explaining mode choice and how they are used to derive economic outputs. The main results are: 1) the latent variables used to explain mode choice are linked to individual mental states, perceptions of transport modes, or an actual performed behaviour; 2) the richness of structural equation models still needs to be explored to fully embody the psychological theories explaining mode choice; 3) the integration of latent variables helps to improve our understanding of mode choice and to adapt public policies. |
| Keywords: | Mode choice,Survey,Integrated choice and latent variable model,Structural equation modelling,Behavioural theories,Economic outputs |
| Date: | 2018–05–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01795630&r=tre |
| By: | Infrastructure Victoria |
| Abstract: | This paper outlines the limitations in the current Australian approach to evaluating infrastructure projects, programs and policies. It considers how Cost-Benefit Analysis in social housing, criminal justice, health and transport sectors could be further developed or strengthened by improving the valuation of non-market impacts. For each of these four sectors, we suggest impacts that could be considered. We argue using the benefit transfer method (where proxies from other jurisdictions or studies to measure impact) is our preferred approach as a first step to extending and improving the use of Cost-Benefit Analysis in non-transport sectors. We present different methods, data sources and evaluation instruments that can be used to ascribe monetary values to more economic, social, and environmental impacts. Finally, we report a set of parameter values that are currently used in other Australian states and internationally that could be adopted for use in Victoria. Creation Date: 2016-11-02 |
| Keywords: | Cost-Benefit Analysis, Infrastructure, Project Appraisal, Project Evaluation, Health, Criminal Justice, Social Housing, Transport |
| JEL: | D61 H43 H75 I18 K00 R42 R00 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inv:ppaper:201602&r=tre |
| By: | Imke Reimers (Northeastern University); Benjamin R. Shiller (Brandeis University) |
| Abstract: | Concerns about anti-competitive effects of proprietary data collection have motivated recent European data portability laws. We investigate such concerns and search for evidence of direct benefits of data collection in the context of Pay How You Drive (PHYD) auto insurance, which offers tailored discounts to drivers monitored by telematics devices. We exploit the staggered entry of PHYD insurance across states and insurers in a difference-in-differences framework, and we replicate the main findings using state insurance regulations as instruments for entry timing. We find a meaningful impact of PHYD programs on fatal accidents, but we find no evidence of antitrust concerns. |
| Keywords: | Proprietary data, data portability, oligopoly, economic competition, asymmetric information |
| JEL: | D43 D82 L13 L40 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:brd:wpaper:119r&r=tre |
| By: | Bimpikis, Kostas (Stanford University); Candogan, Ozan (University of Chicago); Saban, Daniela (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | We explore spatial price discrimination in the context of a ride-sharing platform that serves a network of locations. Riders are heterogeneous in terms of their destination preferences and their willingness to pay for receiving service. Drivers decide whether, when, and where to provide service so as to maximize their expected earnings, given the platform's prices. Our findings highlight the impact of the demand pattern on the platform's prices, profits, and the induced consumer surplus. In particular, we establish that profits and consumer surplus are maximized when the demand pattern is "balanced" across the network*s locations. In addition, we show that they both increase monotonically with the balancedness of the demand pattern (as formalized by its structural properties). Furthermore, if the demand pattern is not balanced, the platform can benefit substantially from pricing rides differently depending on the location they originate from. Finally, we consider a number of alternative pricing and compensation schemes that are commonly used in practice and explore their performance for the platform. |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:repec:ecl:stabus:3482&r=tre |
| By: | Thierry Pairault (CECMC-CCJ - Centre d'études sur la Chine moderne et contemporaine - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Date: | 2018–05–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01800608&r=tre |
| By: | Stefan Borsky (University of Graz, Austria); Christian Unterberger (Swiss Federal Research Institute for Forest, Snow, and Landscape, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | Weather shocks frequently impair the smooth functioning of transportation systems. To further add empirical evidence to this finding, we use a dataset consisting of 2.14 million flightdepartures from ten large U.S. airports between January 2012 and September 2017, and estimate the effects sudden onset events, i.e., precipitation and wind, and slow onset events, i.e., temperature, have on departure delay. For sudden onset events, we apply a difference-in-difference framework that allows for inferences at the hourly level. The effects of slow onset events on departure delay are estimated based on a Prais Winstein estimator with panel-corrected standard errors. Our estimates show a significant increase in departure delay of up to 23 minutes depending on the weather type and intensity of the disturbance. Given the social costs of schedule delays, these results are important. This is especially true in the light of climate change, which will alter the frequency and intensity of adverse weather phenomena. |
| Keywords: | Flight Departure delays; Climate change impact; Sudden and slow onset events |
| JEL: | Q54 R41 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grz:wpaper:2018-13&r=tre |
| By: | Nathaniel Baum-Snow; J. Vernon Henderson; Matthew A. Turner; Qinghua Zhang; Loren Brandt |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effects of the recently constructed Chinese national highway system on local economic outcomes. On average, roads that improve access to local markets have small or negative effects on prefecture economic activity and population. However, these averages mask a distinct pattern of winners and losers. With better regional highways, economic output and population increase in regional primates at the expense of hinterland prefectures. Highways also affect patterns of specialization. With better regional highways, regional primates specialize more in manufacturing and services, while peripheral areas lose manufacturing but gain in agriculture. Better access to international ports promotes greater population, GDP, and private sector wages on average, effects that are probably larger in hinterland than primate prefectures. An important policy implication is that investing in local transport infrastructure to promote growth of hinterland prefectures has the opposite effect, causing them to specialize more in agriculture and lose economic activity. |
| JEL: | R0 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24596&r=tre |
| By: | Larcker, David F. (Stanford University); Tayan, Brian (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | In this Closer Look, we examine the roles that leadership and culture play in contributing to chronic misbehavior and the manner in which it takes root in an organization. We use the example of Uber Technologies. Between 2012 and 2017, Uber Technologies faced a series of governance challenges including regulatory battles, relations with drivers, intellectual property theft, cybersecurity breaches, allegations of sexual harassment, and boardroom battles. We discuss these in detail and ask: 1. Did Uber's early risk-seeking behavior cause larger problems down the road? 2. How important is CEO personality and behavior in influencing the collective behavior of an organization? 3. How difficult is it to change culture, once it is established? 4. To what extent is culture created top down and to what extent bottom up? 5. Does Uber need a substantial turnover of management and key non-management employees to successfully complete a cultural shift? Note: The Stanford Closer Look series is a collection of short case studies through which we explore topics, issues, and controversies in corporate governance and executive leadership. In each study, we take a targeted look at a specific issue that is relevant to the current debate on governance and explain why it is so important. Larcker and Tayan are co-authors of the books Corporate Governance Matters and A Real Look at Real World Corporate Governance. |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:repec:ecl:stabus:3657&r=tre |
| By: | Head, Keith; Mayer, Thierry |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the role of country/variety comparative advantage in the decision to offshore assembly of more than 2000 models of 197 car brands headquartered in 23 countries. While offshoring in the car industry has risen from 2000 to 2016, the top five offshoring brands account for half the car assembly relocated to low-wage countries. We show that the decision to offshore a particular car model depends on two types of cost (dis)advantage of the home country relative to foreign locations. The first type, the assembly costs common to all models, is estimated via a structural triadic gravity equation. The second effect, model-level comparative advantage, is an interaction between proxies for the model's skill and capital intensity and headquarter country's abundance in these factors. |
| Keywords: | cars; Gravity; offshoring |
| JEL: | F1 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12940&r=tre |