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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Nicholas Rivers, Randall Wigle (Wilfrid Laurier University) |
| Abstract: | The reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from road transport is a key policy goal that is being pursued by both federal and provincial governments using a range of policies. This paper considers the cost of alternative approaches to reducing emissions from road passenger travel in Canada. Our findings reinforce the widely-held belief that a revenue-neutral carbon tax is the most cost-effective tool to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Regulatory instruments on their own, such as a low carbon fuel standard, vehicle greenhouse gas intensity regulation, or zero emission vehicle mandate, achieve a given reduction at much higher cost. We show, however, that a combination of regulatory instruments can better approach the cost-effectiveness of a carbon tax than individual regulations. We provide insight about the optimal combination of regulatory instruments in the Canadian context, and find that both a low carbon fuel standard and an zero emission vehicle mandate can be jointly used to reduce GHG emissions from the transport sector. Our analysis is timely, given the rapidly evolving policies in this sector. |
| Keywords: | Greenhouse gas emissions, low carbon fuel standard, electric vehicles, carbon tax, road transport |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wlu:lcerpa:0107&r=tre |
| By: | IWATA Kazuyuki; MANAGI Shunsuke |
| Abstract: | It is expected that autonomous vehicles will become commonplace because of the convenience they provide to drivers. However, this enhanced convenience may increase vehicle driving demand. Therefore, using a household survey conducted in Japan, this paper examines the effects of automated driving on vehicle miles traveled. In the analysis, we assume that automated driving halves both the number of traffic accident risks and driving fatigue incidents. The estimation results show that a household's annual vehicle miles traveled, on average, increase by about 630km to 3,237km due to the introduction of automated driving. If all vehicles in Japan were to be replaced with autonomous vehicles, the annual increase in vehicle driving demand would raise greenhouse gas emissions by 6.5 million to 33.8 million t-CO2. Therefore, authorities need to pay attention to the relation between autonomous vehicles and climate change when promoting and distributing autonomous vehicles. |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:18005&r=tre |
| By: | Varela, Juan Manuel Lorenzo (CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI)); Börjesson, Maria (CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI)); Daly, Andrew (ITS, Leeds) |
| Abstract: | Travel time and travel cost are key variables for explaining travel behaviour and deriving the value of time. However, a general problem in transport modelling is that these variables are subject to measurement errors in transport network models. In this paper we show how to assess the magnitude of the measurement errors in travel time and travel cost by latent variables, in a large-scale travel demand model. The case study for Stockholm commuters shows that assuming multiplicative measurement errors for travel time and cost result in a better fit than additive ones; however, when measurement errors are modelled, the estimated time and cost parameters are robust to the modelling assumptions. Moreover, our results suggest that measurement errors in our dataset are larger for the travel cost than for the travel time, and that measurement errors are larger in self-reported travel time than software-calculated travel time for car-driver and car-passenger, and of similar magnitude for public transport. Among self-reported travel times, car-passenger has the largest errors, followed by car-driver and public transport, and for the software-calculated times, public transport exhibits larger errors than car. These errors, if not corrected, lead to biases in measures derived from the models, such as elasticity and values of travel time. |
| Keywords: | Hybrid choice models; Latent variables; Error quantification; Measurement error models; RP Value of Time; Self-reported indicators |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2018–02–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2018_003&r=tre |
| By: | Charles F. Mason |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I combine data on incidents associated with rail transportation of crude oil and detailed data on rail shipments to appraise the relation between increased use of rail to transport crude oil and the risk of safety incidents associated with those shipments. I find a positive link between the accumulation of minor incidents and the frequency of serious incidents, and a positive relation between increased rail shipments of crude oil and the occurrence of minor incidents. I also find that increased shipments are associated with a rightward shift in the distribution of economic damages associated with these shipments; the implied marginal impact of an additional 1,000 rail cars carrying oil between two states in a given month is $1,836. In addition, I find larger average effects associated with states that represent the greatest source of tight oil production. |
| JEL: | C14 L71 L92 |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24299&r=tre |
| By: | Schach, Michael (RWTH Aachen University); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the significance of an ice-free Northeast Passage (NEP) as a shipping route for LNG, and the impacts on alternative transport routes and -capacities. The following aspects are considered: (1) Trends in LNG production, particularly in the Russian Arctic; (2) Developments in the Asian LNG consumer market; (3) Specifics and prospects of Arctic shipping. The major LNG trade flows between producers and the Asian consumer market are modeled. Methods from Operations Research are contrasted and the Cycle-Cancelling Algorithm applied to the transportation problem, in order to achieve a cost-optimal capacity allocation. The impacts of demand variations and a chokepoint shutdown on transport routes and -capacities are considered. Concepts from competition theory are used to model the effects on LNG pricing. The key finding is that an ice-free NEP is highly relevant for shipping activities of Russian LNG producers. It constitutes a competitive advantage and notably impacts the supply competition and pricing on the Asian LNG market. A discussion of results and a conclusion critically reflect upon the research undertaken, providing an outlook and suggestions for future research. |
| Keywords: | LNG; Northeast Passage; Arctic Shipping; Logistics; Cycle-Cancelling Algorithm |
| JEL: | Q30 Q40 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2017_012&r=tre |
| By: | Asplund, Disa (CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI)); Pyddoke, Roger (CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI)) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates welfare effects of optimization of fares and frequencies for bus services in small cities. The model used takes into account both congestion on streets and crowding in public transport vehicles, and is calibrated with data for the Swedish city of Uppsala. Four policies are evaluated: optimal fares with unchanged baseline frequencies, optimal frequencies with unchanged baseline fares, simultaneous optimization of fares and frequencies, and finally a so-called Pareto scenario where frequencies and fares are optimized subject to the condition that no consumer group (defined by zone, time period, and origin-destination pair) should be worse off in terms of generalized cost of each trip. The results indicate that there would be large, robust welfare gains from reducing public transport supply in Uppsala, especially in the outer zone of the city where reductions of supply compared with the current situation are large. The welfare gains from adjusting fares would be smaller. The large reductions in consumer welfare in the welfare optimum, however, are likely to be controversial. In the Pareto scenario, almost all potential social welfare gains from the welfare optimal scenario are achieved with no consumer in any zone or time period being worse off compared with the baseline policy. In this scenario, the total number of public transport passengers is increased and emissions are reduced compared with the current situation. |
| Keywords: | Public transport; bus; demand model; fares; frequencies; supply; optimization; urban; welfare |
| JEL: | R10 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2018–02–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2018_001&r=tre |
| By: | MORITA Tamaki; MANAGI Shunsuke |
| Abstract: | This study, using an online survey with large samples, analyzes the latent demand for autonomous vehicles in Japan. The analysis is twofold. First, we applied the choice-based conjoint analysis to estimate the respondents' willingness to pay (WTP) for the auto driving system (conditional automation and full automation) as well as the fuel types (hybrid and electricity) of a car that respondents would buy. We also estimate the factors affecting each of the five respondents' classes grouped by the latent class conditional logit, to elicit the consumer heterogeneity. We find that those who do not favor driving and those who trust the safeness of autonomous driving tend to have higher WTP for automation. Contrast to the preferences to fuel choice, the environmental concern and altruism of the respondents did not affect the selection of automation. Second, we deal with consumers' attitudes toward the moral dilemma that artificial intelligence (AI) armed in vehicles should face: "the trolley problem" of choosing between two evils, such as running over pedestrians or sacrificing themselves and their passenger to save the pedestrians. We find that, like in the United States, there exists a particular gap between the Japanese consumers' morality and their expected purchasing behavior. Considering it, we alert that autonomous vehicles may cause the social dilemma, and insist the need to pay more attention to this social dilemma when we design the AI algorithm or traffic laws. |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:18004&r=tre |
| By: | Gabriel E. Lade (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD)); James Bushnell |
| Abstract: | The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) is among the largest renewable energy mandates in the world. The policy is enforced using tradeable credits that implicitly subsidize biofuels and tax fossil fuels. The RFS relies on these taxes and subsidies to be passed through to consumers to stimulate demand for biofuels and decrease demand for gasoline and diesel. Using station-level prices for E85 (a high-ethanol blend fuel) from over 450 retail fuel stations, we show that pass-through of the ethanol subsidy is, on average, complete. However, we find that full pass-through takes four to six weeks and that local market structure of gasoline stations influences both the speed and overall level of pass-through. JEL Codes: Q42, Q58, H23 |
| Keywords: | retail fuel markets, E85, renewable fuel standard, subsidy pass-through |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ias:fpaper:16-wp570&r=tre |
| By: | Tonnerre, Antoine |
| Abstract: | There has been a long history of mergers in the airline industry in the U.S.A., even more after the Airline Deregulation Act in 1978. Besides, merger simulations are an increasingly popular exercise that allow for well-motivated predictions regarding the outcome of the mergers. This is of great use for competition authorities. There has already been some work on this topic, from Peters (2006). This paper will differ in the following: the most recent data will be used, merger simulations will be performed at the market level, marginal costs will be directly estimated, and Cournot conduct will be assumed. Moreover, almost twenty years from now, researchers already predicted the reduction of the number of airlines in this industry in the U.S.A., because of its network nature. This reduction lead to increased market power, but also to increased efficiencies (see for instance Borenstein, 1990, 1992, and Kim & Singal 1993). In the end, do mergers in this industry automatically raise prices and reduce volumes? Are they still desirable today and if so, under which conditions ? |
| Keywords: | merger simulations; airlines; cournot; econometrics; industrial organization; cost estimation; demand estimation |
| JEL: | C53 L41 L44 |
| Date: | 2017–10–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:84395&r=tre |
| By: | Dalgaard, Carl-Johan (University of Copenhagen, CAGE (Warwick) and CEPR (London)); Kaarsen, Nicolai (Danish Economic Council); Olsson, Ola (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Selaya, Pablo (University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | How persistent is public goods provision in a comparative perspective? We explore the link between infrastructure investments made during antiquity and the presence of infrastructure today, as well as the link between early infrastructure and economic activity both in the past and in the present, across the entire area under dominion of the Roman Empire at the zenith of its geographical extension (117 CE). We find a remarkable pattern of persistence showing that greater Roman road density goes along with (a) greater modern road density, (b) greater settlement for-mation in 500 CE, and (c) greater economic activity in 2010. Interestingly, however, the degree of persistence in road density and the link between early road density and contemporary economic development is weakened to the point of insignificance in areas where the use of wheeled vehicles was abandoned from the first millennium CE until the late modern period. Taken at face value, our results suggest that infrastructure may be one important channel through which persistence in comparative development comes about. |
| Keywords: | Roman roads; Roman Empire; public goods; infrastructure; persistence |
| JEL: | H41 O40 |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0722&r=tre |
| By: | Habte, Osmis (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of competition on a firm's choice of opening hours in the motor vehicle inspection market. Competition affects the incentive inspection firms face when choosing opening hours, which influences the probability that consumers find service time that best matches their preferred time. We use 2SLS analyses to resolve the potential endogeneity of market entry decisions. Using a detailed monthly firm-level panel data for all inspection firms in Sweden, we find that increased competition, measured using both the number of firms in a geographic market and average distance to nearby competitors, leads to expanded opening hours. The probability that inspection firms offer services on weekends also increases with local competition. |
| Keywords: | opening hours; competition; non-price competition; entry; motor vehicle inspection market |
| JEL: | D22 L11 L84 |
| Date: | 2017–12–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2017_020&r=tre |
| By: | Habte, Osmis (Department of Economics, Lund University); Holm, Håkan J. (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of competition on firms' leniency towards their customers in a heavily regulated market, which is consciously designed to mitigate incentives to deviate from the regulation. Using a panel data set representing 22.5 million periodic vehicle roadworthiness tests during the period 2010-2015, we show that inspection stations operating in more competitive markets are more lenient to their customers than stations operating in less competitive markets. We present both fixed effects and instrumental variable estimates of the effect of competition on firms' incentive to be lenient to their customers. |
| Keywords: | leniency; pass rate; inspection behavior; competition; deregulation; inspection market |
| JEL: | D22 L11 L84 |
| Date: | 2017–12–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2017_019&r=tre |
| By: | Andreas P. Kyriacou; Leonel Muinelo-Gallo; Oriol Roca-Sagalés |
| Abstract: | In this article we analyze the efficiency of total transport investment in a sample of 34 countries over the period 1996 to 2010. We do so by way of Data Envelopment Analysis that evaluates countries according to their ability to achieve the maximum attainable infrastructure quantity and usage for a given investment volume. We find that the Central European countries, New Zealand and Japan are the most efficient when investing in transport infrastructure while the Eastern European countries, Russia, Turkey and Mexico are the least so. We moreover consider the role played by institutional or government quality when explaining cross-country differences in investment efficiency, based on truncated panel (and bootstrapped) regressions. We confirm the positive impact of institutional quality on efficiency even after controlling for a range of potentially confounding variables. Our analysis generates important policy implications for those concerned with the efficiency of transport infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | transport infrastructures, efficiency, data envelopment analysis, panel data, government quality. |
| JEL: | E02 E60 H11 H54 |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gov:wpregi:1802&r=tre |
| By: | Schach, Michael (RWTH Aachen University); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)) |
| Abstract: | We examine the relevance of an ice-free Northeast Passage as a shipping route, especially for LNG-supplying and -consuming countries. Four aspects are considered in-depth: (1) Develop-ments in natural gas production in the Russian Arctic; (2) Trends and strategies of major Asian LNG-consuming countries; (3) Geopolitical significance of the Northeast Passage; (4) Geo-graphical and climatic particularities of the Arctic. The analysis also comprises an assessment of the competitiveness of Russian LNG exports along the Northeast Passage, a discussion of the impacts on LNG transport routes and markets, and an evaluation of the geopolitical impli-cations of this new shipping route. We find that an ice-free NEP is relevant for maritime bulk and particularly LNG shipping, and thus of great geopolitical importance and strategic interest for countries such as Russia, the US, China, Japan, and South Korea. |
| Keywords: | LNG Markets; Geopolitics; Northeast Passage; Arctic; Russia; Asia |
| JEL: | Q30 Q40 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2017_004&r=tre |
| By: | J. Christopher Westland (University of Illinois); Jian Mou (XiDian University); Dafei Yin (Mobike) |
| Abstract: | Consumers are creatures of habit, often periodic, tied to work, shopping and other schedules. We analyzed one month of data from the world's largest bike-sharing company to elicit demand behavioral cycles, initially using models from animal tracking that showed large customers fit an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model with demand peaks at periodicities of 7, 12, 24 hour and 7-days. Lorenz curves of bicycle demand showed that the majority of customer usage was infrequent, and demand cycles from time-series models would strongly overfit the data yielding unreliable models. Analysis of thresholded wavelets for the space-time tensor of bike-sharing contracts was able to compress the data into a 56-coefficient model with little loss of information, suggesting that bike-sharing demand behavior is exceptionally strong and regular. Improvements to predicted demand could be made by adjusting for 'noise' filtered by our model from air quality and weather information and demand from infrequent riders. |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1802.02683&r=tre |
| By: | Chad E. Hart (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD)); Frayne Olson |
| Abstract: | The Transportation Services Division of USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) has funded a cooperative agreement (under Cooperative Agreement Number 14-TMXXX-IA-0028) with two research outcomes: 1. A report providing analysis of grain basis behavior during transportation disruptions, and 2. New indicators for the Grain Transportation Report (GTR). |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ias:fpaper:17-sr111&r=tre |
| By: | Susan Athey; David Blei; Robert Donnelly; Francisco Ruiz; Tobias Schmidt |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes consumer choices over lunchtime restaurants using data from a sample of several thousand anonymous mobile phone users in the San Francisco Bay Area. The data is used to identify users' approximate typical morning location, as well as their choices of lunchtime restaurants. We build a model where restaurants have latent characteristics (whose distribution may depend on restaurant observables, such as star ratings, food category, and price range), each user has preferences for these latent characteristics, and these preferences are heterogeneous across users. Similarly, each item has latent characteristics that describe users' willingness to travel to the restaurant, and each user has individual-specific preferences for those latent characteristics. Thus, both users' willingness to travel and their base utility for each restaurant vary across user-restaurant pairs. We use a Bayesian approach to estimation. To make the estimation computationally feasible, we rely on variational inference to approximate the posterior distribution, as well as stochastic gradient descent as a computational approach. Our model performs better than more standard competing models such as multinomial logit and nested logit models, in part due to the personalization of the estimates. We analyze how consumers re-allocate their demand after a restaurant closes to nearby restaurants versus more distant restaurants with similar characteristics, and we compare our predictions to actual outcomes. Finally, we show how the model can be used to analyze counterfactual questions such as what type of restaurant would attract the most consumers in a given location. |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1801.07826&r=tre |
| By: | Mara Faccio; John J. McConnell |
| Abstract: | Using police accident reports for Tippecanoe County, Indiana, and exploiting the introduction of the augmented reality game Pokémon GO as a natural experiment, we document a disproportionate increase in crashes and associated vehicular damage, injuries, and fatalities in the vicinity of locations where users can play the game while driving. We estimate the incremental county-wide cost of users playing Pokémon GO while driving to be in the range of $5.2 to $25.5 million over the 148 days following the introduction of the game. Extrapolating these estimates to nation-wide levels yields a total ranging from $2.0 to $7.3 billion. |
| JEL: | O33 R40 |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24308&r=tre |