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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Alfredo Marvão Pereira (Department of Economics, The College of William and Mary, Williamsburg VA 23187); Rui Manuel Pereira (Department of Economics, The College of William and Mary, Williamsburg VA 23187) |
| Abstract: | We use the industry-specific effects of twelve different infrastructure investments in Portugal to inform about the mechanisms through which such investments affect economic activity. Our main findings are as follows. First, demand-side effects that are approximated by adding the short-term and long-term construction effects are very important. They are over 60% of total effects for airport investments, ports, refineries, and water, and over 45% for national roads, municipal roads, telecommunications, health and education. Second, site-location effects that are approximated by real-estate effects are also very significant, in particular for national roads, highways and railroads, with 30%, 35% and 64% of the total effects, respectively. They are negative for water and electricity, and zero for municipal roads, airports, and refineries, and negligible for ports, i.e., all these are cases in which we would expect adverse or small location effects. Third, the functional channel relating to internationally-traded goods, approximated by the effects on the primary sector, on manufacturing, and on transportation, is much less significant, although we estimate meaningful effects on heavy industry from investments in all types of road infrastructures, ports, health, and education, as well as on light industry from ports. Fourth, a functional effect affecting non-traded industries, mostly private and public services is much more relevant. It accounts for more than 30% of the effects in the cases of municipal roads, airports, and refineries, and in excess of 20% for highways, railroads, telecommunications, health and education. The fact that most functional effects accrue to non-traded industries is likely to affect international competitiveness adversely. Naturally, these results cannot be automatically generalized, as the nature of the effects of infrastructure investments crucially depends on the level of development of the country in question, on the maturity of its existent infrastructure systems, and on the rigor of all decisions pertaining to infrastructure investment. Nevertheless, they establish that, as infrastructure investments are concerned, the dominance of virtuous supply side effects is not a foregone conclusion and, conversely, the relevance of Keynesian effects cannot be dismissed. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure investment, Output, Industry-level, Supply-side effects; Demand-side effects, Vector-autoregressive, Portugal |
| JEL: | C32 E22 H54 L90 L98 O52 |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mde:wpaper:0076&r=tre |
| By: | Akbar, Prottoy; Duranton, Gilles |
| Abstract: | We provide a novel approach to estimate the deadweight loss of congestion. We implement it for road travel in the city of Bogotá using information from a travel survey and counterfactual travel data generated from Google Maps. For the supply of travel, we find that the elasticity of the time cost of travel per unit of distance with respect to the number of travelers is on average about 0.06. It is close to zero at low levels of traffic, then reaches a maximum magnitude of about 0.20 as traffic builds up and becomes small again at high levels of traffic. This finding is in sharp contrast with extant results for specific road segments. We explain it by the existence of local streets which remain relatively uncongested and put a floor on the time cost of travel. On the demand side, we estimate an elasticity of the number of travelers with respect to the time cost of travel of 0.40. Although road travel is costly in Bogotá, these findings imply a small daily deadweight loss from congestion, equal to less than 1% of a day’s wage. |
| Keywords: | Ciudades, Investigación socioeconómica, Transporte, |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbl:dblpap:1028&r=tre |
| By: | Saskia Vennix (Microeconomic Information Department, NBB) |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the economic importance of air transport and airport activities in Belgium in terms of value added, employment and investment over the 2013-2015 period 1 . The sector considered embraces not only the activities directly connected with air transport, but also all those that take place on site at the six Belgian airports (Antwerp, Brussels,Charleroi, Kortrijk, Liège and Ostend). The study reviews the direct and indirect effects of the sector on the basis of microeconomic data (mainly obtained from the Central Balance Sheet Office) and mesoeconomic data (from the National Accounts Institute). It also includes a social balance sheet analysis and an indication of credit risk using statistical models from the NBB’s In-house Credit Assessment System (ICAS). In 2015, air transport and airport activities generated € 6 billion in direct and indirect value added (i.e. 1.5 % of Belgian GDP) and employed around 62 500 people in full-time equivalents (FTEs)either directly or indirectly (1.5 % of domestic employment including the self-employed). Brussels and Liège Airport remain the country’s biggest airports, respectively in terms of passenger and cargo traffic. In the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in March 2016, the regional airports received part of Brussels’ passenger traffic. All in all, Brussels recovered fairly quickly, especially freight traffic, but also passenger traffic resumed gradually to tie in with growth again since November 2016. Brussels and Liège are the fastest growing airports during the 2013-2015 period, respectively in terms of value added and employment. At Ostend Airport, these economic variables slumped in line with the evolution of freight traffic volumes. Antwerp’s growth rates went into the red as well, mainly under the influence of the difficulties faced by VLM Airlines. At Charleroi and Liège, the trend of value added is downward, while that is not the case for employment. The smallest changes are recorded in Kortrijk. |
| Keywords: | air transport, airport activities, sector analysis, indirect effects, employment, value added, investment. |
| JEL: | C67 D40 J21 L93 R15 R34 R41 |
| Date: | 2017–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:201705-324&r=tre |
| By: | Canavire-Bacarreza, Gustavo; Duque, Juan Carlos; Urrego, Joaquin A. |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the relationship between urban public transportation innovation and crime. In 2004, the city of Medellin in Colombia developed an innovative public transportation system based on cable cars (Metrocable) to reach dense, isolated and dangerous neighborhoods. Using Spatial Difference in Difference approaches and a rich dataset at spatial analytical level, using max-p modeling, we explore the effects of the Metrocable on crime and its mechanisms. We find a significant impact on homicides reduction in the treated neighborhoods, especially in the medium run. Homicides decreased around 41% more than the general crime reduction in the city between 2004 and 2006, and by 49% between 2004 and 2012. We explore two mechanisms through which this intervention may affect the level of criminality, one is reducing the travel costs and improving accessibility to the rest of the city for low-income population (socioeconomic mechanism); the other is the increasing of the probability of apprehension for potential and active o enders (deterrent mechanism). |
| Keywords: | Ciudades, Innovación, Investigación socioeconómica, Pobreza, Seguridad ciudadana, Transporte, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbl:dblpap:978&r=tre |
| By: | Alfredo Marvão Pereira (Department of Economics, The College of William and Mary, Williamsburg VA 23187); Rui Manuel Pereira (Department of Economics, The College of William and Mary, Williamsburg VA 23187) |
| Abstract: | Using a newly-developed data set, we analyze the effects of infrastructure investment on economic performance in Portugal. A vector-autoregressive approach estimates the elasticity and marginal products of twelve types of infrastructure investment on private investment, employment and output. We find that the largest long-term accumulated effects come from investments in railroads, ports, airports, health, education, and telecommunications. For these infrastructures, the output multipliers suggest that these investments pay for themselves through additional tax revenues. For investments in ports, airports and education infrastructures, the bulk of the effects are short-term demand-side effects, while for railroads, health, and telecommunications, the impact is mostly of a long term and supply side nature. Finally, investments in health and airports exhibit decreasing marginal returns, with railroads, ports, and telecommunications being relatively stable. In terms of the other infrastructure assets, the economic effects of investments in municipal roads, electricity and gas, and refineries are insignificant, while investments in national roads, highways, and waste and waste water have positive economic effects, but too small to improve the public budget. Clearly, from a policy perspective, not all infrastructure investments in Portugal are created equal. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure Investment, Multipliers, Budgetary Effects, VAR, Portugal |
| JEL: | C32 E22 E62 H54 H60 O47 |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mde:wpaper:0075&r=tre |
| By: | Olga Lorenz (Institute for Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union) |
| Abstract: | How and why commuting contributes to our well-being is of considerableimportance for transportation policy and planning. This paper analyses the relation between commuting and subjective well-being by considering several cognitive (e.g. satisfaction with family life, leisure, income, work, health) and affective (e.g., happiness, anger, worry, sadness) componentsof subjective well-being. Fixed-effects models are estimated with German Socio-Economic Panel data for the period 2007 – 2013. In contrast to previous papers in the literature, according to which commuting is bad for overall life satisfaction, we find no evidence that commuting in general is associated with a lower life satisfaction. Rather, it appears that longer commutes are only related to lower satisfaction with particular life domains, especially family life and leisure time. Time spent on housework, child care as well as physical and leisure activities mediate the association between commuting and well-being. |
| Keywords: | commuting distance, emotion, satisfaction, time use, well-being |
| JEL: | I10 I31 R40 |
| Date: | 2017–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iaa:dpaper:201707&r=tre |
| By: | Mercedes Ayuso (Department of Econometrics, Riskcenter-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona); Montserrat Guillén (Department of Econometrics, Riskcenter-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona); Jens Perch Nielsen (Cass Business School, City University) |
| Abstract: | We show how data collected from a GPS device can be incorporated in motor insurance ratemaking. The calculation of premium rates based upon driver behaviour represents an opportunity for the insurance sector. Our approach is based on count data regression models for frequency, where exposure is driven by the distance travelled and additional parameters that capture characteristics of automobile usage and which may affect claiming behaviour. We propose implementing a classical frequency model that is updated with telemetrics information. We illustrate the method using real data from usage-based insurance policies. Results show that not only the distance travelled by the driver, but also driver habits, significantly influence the expected number of accidents and, hence, the cost of insurance coverage. This paper provides a methodology including a transition pricing transferring knowledge and experience that the company already had before the telematics data arrived to the new world including telematics information. |
| Keywords: | tariff, premium calculation, pay-as-you-drive insurance, count data models |
| Date: | 2017–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bak:wpaper:201701&r=tre |