|
on Transport Economics |
| By: | Swisher IV, S. N. |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the seminal work of Robert Fogel on U.S. railroads, I reformulate Fogel’s original counter- factual history question on 19th century U.S. economic growth without railroads by treating the transport network as an endogenous equilibrium object. I quantify the effect of the railroad on U.S. growth from its introduction in 1830 to 1861. Specifically, I estimate the output loss in a counterfactual world with- out the technology to build railroads, but retaining the ability to construct the next-best alternative of canals. My main contribution is to endogenize the counterfactual canal network through a decentralized network formation game played by profit-maximizing transport firms. I perform a similar exercise in a world without canals. My counterfactual differs from Fogel’s in three main ways: I develop a structural model of transport link costs that takes heterogeneity in geography into account to determine the cost of unobserved links, the output distribution is determined in the model as a function of transport costs, and the transport network is endogenized as a stable result of a particular network formation game. I find that railroads and canals are strategic complements, not strategic substitutes. Therefore, the output loss can be quite acute when one or the other is missing from the economy. In the set of Nash stable networks, relative to the factual world, the median value of output is 45% lower in the canals only counterfactual and 49% lower in the railroads only counterfactual. With only one of the transportation technologies available, inequality in output across cities would have been lower in variance terms but sharply higher in terms of the maximum-minimum gap. Such a stark output loss is due to two main mechanisms: inefficiency of the decentralized equilibrium due to network externalities and complementarities due to spatial heterogeneity in costs across the two transport modes. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, transport infrastructure, network formation games, strategic comple- ments, railroads, counterfactual history, multiple equilibria, computation, simulation |
| JEL: | E22 O11 N71 L92 R42 |
| Date: | 2017–04–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:1718&r=tre |
| By: | Moreira, Paulo Pires |
| Abstract: | For the last ten years Portuguese railways has shown a gradual decrease in passengers’ annual figures; nearly 20 million. The major contributors are regional services and Lisbon’s commuting lines. Despite the number of passengers in the metropolitan area of Porto remains steady while the long-distance ridership market between the two major Portuguese cities, Lisbon and Porto presents a slightly growth starting in 2014, long-term perspectives for Portuguese railways are not optimistic. Lisbon and Porto, separated by a distance slightly greater than 300 km, are connected by the Northern Line, which was already competing with two parallel highways, is now facing a new threat in the form of an air-bridge launched one year ago with hourly airplane departures at very competitive ticket fares. There are clear indicators that this air-bridge will lure a large number of potential passengers away from long-distance rail therefore pressing up operator revenues over this important rail connection impacting its earning power: this line is responsible for more than 42% of the State-owned railways total earnings. Therefore, the aim of this article is to find why Portuguese rail languishes while air transport grows, increasing perverse results: climate change, health and non-health damages. Fuel exemption and the lack of excise duties produce enough market distortions to explain at some extent how aviation has seen such strong growth in demand at the expense of rail, but this market distortion do not tells the entire story. What is at stake is how to obtain a level playing field between the two modes. In that sense, it is necessary to internalise the social cost of carbon in a way to weight the real costs the society has actually to bear from each option because those costs are not borne by transport operators or users, but by society as a whole. After attach a money value to negative externalities, we identify as the root of the problem for the sustainability of Portuguese long-distance railways the lack of political will towards the internalisation of negative externalities. |
| Keywords: | Negative externalities; Climate change; Air pollutants; Aviation; Railways, Case-study. |
| JEL: | Q01 Q48 Q5 Q53 Q58 R40 R58 |
| Date: | 2017–05–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79058&r=tre |
| By: | Hugo Bois |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses a new framework to explain the decision-making process of modal choice. A specific approach, based on the behavioral framework developed by Ben-Akiva & Boccara (1987), is adopted to understand and analyze the decision processes of individuals. Precisely, we use the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to build the hierarchy of preferences from attitudes and perceptions. Through the hierarchy of preferences, we can apply three different methods to better explain the decision processes; namely a standard compensatory model, a non-compensatory model based on the decision rules, and different possible weightings of the AHP method. The random utility maximization is predominantly used in the transportation literature because of its strong theoretical background, its success in predicting many types of human behavior, and the simplicity of mathematical and statistical analyses and model estimation it offers. Despite that, we believe that non-compensatory approaches are better suited to understand both travel behaviors and decision processes for transportation modes when taking active modes into account. These approaches allow us to better explain the impacts of each modal attribute on the one hand and to build psychological profiles with respect to decision rules on the other hand. Thus, it is possible to simulate shocks all things being equal. |
| Keywords: | Modal choice, Preferences, Decision rules, Hierarchical model, AHP. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cec:wpaper:1608&r=tre |
| By: | Roberto Alvarez; Aldo Gonzalez; Manuel Garcia |
| Abstract: | We investigate the determinants of open skies agreements among Latin-American countries, focusing on the impact of having a dominant airline on the willingness of countries to sign agreements with others. We find that, overall, the likelihood of signing agreements increases with trade volume, passenger traffic, and distance. In relation to our main question, we find that a having a dominant airline decreases the probability that third countries concede open skies agreement. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udc:wpaper:wp443&r=tre |
| By: | Piera Bello (Istituto di economia pubblica (IdeP), Facoltà di scienze economiche, Università della Svizzera italiana, Svizzera) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an empirical analysis of the effects of nominal exchange rate fluctuations on cross-border mobility and on retailer firms' sales. Exchange rate shocks may affect the labour supply decisions of cross-border workers and the propensity for consumers to shop across the border. By using hourly data on traffic flows in Ticino, the southernmost canton of Switzerland, and data on Italian supermarkets, I analyse the effects of the Swiss franc appreciation on cross-border travel by both Italian workers and Swiss consumers and on Italian retailers' sales. I find that a 10% appreciation of the Swiss franc increases the number of cars along the border by 1.5-3% more than in the rest of the canton. This effect is found only during specific time intervals, which differ according to the direction of the flow (the early morning from Italy to Switzerland, the afternoon from Switzerland to Italy and late morning for both directions). Moreover, I show that a stronger Swiss Franc positively affects supermarkets' sales in Italian provinces bordering Switzerland. Finally, I provide additional evidence for the labour supply hypothesis by using data on search volumes provided by Google Trends and official statistics on cross-border commuters in Switzerland. |
| Keywords: | Geographic labor mobility, Labor supply, Traffic flows |
| JEL: | J61 J22 R41 |
| Date: | 2017–05–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lug:wpidep:1701&r=tre |
| By: | Jerónimo Carballo; Georg Schaur; Christian Volpe Martincus |
| Abstract: | Trade facilitation policies intend to simplify administrative processes and accelerate the handling of shipments across borders. Recent research shows that these policies have substantial effects on trade flows. In this chapter, we discuss what the existing evidence for trade implies for the provision of transportation services. In addition, we make use of a particular policy change, an upgrade to a new transit trade regime, to illustrate the many direct and indirect linkages between trade facilitation and transportation. These multiple connections imply that a well-functioning transportation sector is important to realize the full potential of trade facilitation policies. Our conceptual and empirical analyses show that, despite an increase in demand for transportation services, the effect of trade facilitation on freight rates and the underlying transportation sector is far from obvious. This calls for future research to examine equilibrium adjustment channels to trade facilitation policies in the transportation sector. |
| Keywords: | Transport Costs, Trade Policy, Export Performance, Customs Administration, Freight, Trading costs, Exporting Firm, Freight, freight, customs, Latin America, Trade Interactions |
| JEL: | F14 F13 F10 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:97957&r=tre |