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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Milan Scasny; Milan Scasny; Iva Zverinova; Mikolaj Czajkowski |
| Abstract: | Low-carbon vehicles due to their relatively lower fuel intensity directly affect CO2 emissions and are thus technologic solutions that may mitigate climate change. Electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles can be a component of a smart grid and thus could help to accommodate more electricity from renewable energy in the grid. Overall effect on GHG and local air pollutants of course will depend on fuel mix used to generate electricity. Alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) are usually more expensive than conventional cars. Besides the purchase costs, other characteristics of vehicles are also important for a car driver. The purpose of this study is to contribute to the literature that have examined individual preferences for various characteristics of passenger vehicles, including passenger vehicles with very small market share or which recently do not appear at the market. With the onset of alternative fuel vehicles on the market, large amount of studies focusing on consumer preferences of AFVs have been already conducted worldwide. Consumers’ demand for vehicle described with several specific characteristics can be modelled using existing data on market penetration or consumption decisions, i.e. through analysis of revealed preferences. However, if the supply of certain durable goods is constraint or almost zero as is the case for new device or not yet existing technology, potential demand can be examined using stated preferences technique. In our case, the main aim of this survey is to review individual traveller’s preferences for passenger vehicle, specifically for a vehicle that is recently characterized by negligible market penetration. In other words, the stated preferences, as elicited via a stated preference surveys, for the demand for cars with alternative drive technologies are examined. There are several stated preference studies on consumers’ preferences for the uptake of alternative fuel vehicles. However, our study is the first of this kind that has ever been conducted in a post-transition CEE country, in Poland. We surveyed 2,600 individuals in order to elicit preferences for the passenger AFV technologies. We specifically examine individual preferences for three types of alternative technologies (hybrid vehicle - HV, plug-in electric vehicle - PHEV, and electric vehicle - EV) and a conventional car that vary in technology characteristics (driving range, refuelling/recharging time), policy incentives (free parking, public transportation, and availability of fast mode infrastructure) and costs (purchase price, operational and fuel cost), following partly a design by Hoen and Koetse (2012). Our sampling allows us to analyse the preferences for segment of new car buyers as well as buyers of second-hand cars that dominates passenger vehicle market in Poland. Individual preferences are elicited by using the labelled discrete choice experiments (Hensher, Rose, Greene, 2005; Carson and Louviere, 2011). The choice cards include always four technology-specific alternatives and we ask to choose the best option eight times. The choice sets are based on efficient design with the priors estimated from the pilot study (N=400). Our econometric model is based on a random utility framework. We assume that respondents chose a vehicle alternative if their willingness to pay for such vehicle is greater than the cost of this alternative. The corresponding indirect utility function is additive in vehicle’s characteristics and costs. We assume that the random component is an independent and identically distributed type I extreme value error term with a scale parameter equal to 1. It implies that the statistical model of the responses is a conditional logit that is linear in the parameters, and the probability is the contribution to the likelihood of the conditional logit model. In order to analyse preference heterogeneity, we allow controlling for the effect of socio-demographics or other respondent-specific indicators, and also estimate random parameter (mixed) logit.We reveal that the Polish consumers have the lowest preference for hybrid cars, followed then by PHEVs and EVs. In general, we found similar preferences among Polish respondents as found elsewhere in the literature. Driving range and recharging time are quite important attributes of a car which Polish consumers intend to buy. On average, Polish drivers are willing to pay about 3,000 zł for each 100 kms of driving range, and the drivers who intend to buy a second-hand car value the driving range less (about 2,000 zł) than respondents who intend to buy a new car (5,000 zł). As expected, the coefficient on recharging time is negative and significant; on average, Polish drivers are willing to pay slightly less than 1,000 zł for each hour saved for recharging. Again, the new car buyers are willing to pay more than the second-hand car buyers. Their willingness to pay (WTP) for availability of fast mode recharging infrastructure is almost one order of magnitude larger than their WTP for reducing the recharging time by one hour. Providing other benefits, such as free parking and public transport, increases the probability to choose the AFVs. References: Carson, R. T., Louviere, J. J. (2011). A Common Nomenclature for Stated Preference Elicitation Approaches. Environmental and Resource Economics, 49(4), 539–559. doi:10.1007/s10640-010-9450-x Hensher, D., Rose, J.M., Greene, W.H. (2005). Applied Choice Analysis. Cambridge University Press. Hoen, A., Koetse, M.J. (2014). A choice experiment on alternative fuel vehicle preferences of private car owners in the Netherlands. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 61, pp. 199-215. |
| Keywords: | Poland, Energy and environmental policy, Microsimulation models |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:008007:8575&r=tre |
| By: | Maggi,Elena; Vallino,Elena (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we present an agent-based model which reproduces transport choices of a sample of 5,000 citizens of the city of Varese (Northern Italy) and the corresponding PM emissions of their daily commutes. The aim of the model is testing the impact of public policies willing to foster commuting choices with lower PM emissions. Our model, taking inspiration from other existing works, considers the commuters‘ decisions on the transport mode to be used. A set of preferences, one for each transport mode - private car, bicycle, public transport - is assigned to every agent. Throughout the process, agents decide about the means for commuting on the basis of the relative price of the different means of transport, of the social influence and of the intensity of the policies applied. The initial distribution of preferences for each transport mode are inspired to empirical data on Varese commuters. Results suggest that preference-based policies are more effective if compared to price-based ones. However, the application of a mix of different policies seems to give the best outputs: the same amount of resources in terms of policy intensity produce much better results if they are allocated at the same time to two policies, then to one only. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uto:dipeco:201708&r=tre |
| By: | Riccardo Crescenzi; Marco Di Cataldo; Andrés Rodríguez-Pose |
| Abstract: | Transport infrastructure investment is a cornerstone of growth-promoting strategies. However, the link between infrastructure investment and economic performance remains unclear. This may be a consequence of overlooking the role of government institutions. This paper assesses the connection between regional quality of government and the returns of different types of road infrastructure in the regions of the European Union. The results unveil the influence of regional quality of government on the economic returns of transport infrastructure. In weak institutional contexts, investment in motorways – the preferred option by governments – yields significantly lower returns than the more humble secondary roads. Government institutions also affect the returns of transport maintenance investment. |
| Keywords: | transport infrastructure; public capital investment; economic growth; institutions; government quality; institutions; regions; Europe |
| JEL: | O4 R11 R40 R58 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:65716&r=tre |
| By: | Dionne, Georges (HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management); Liu, Ying (Shandong University) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the incentive effects of insurance experience rating on road safety by evaluating the claim frequency following a regulatory reform introduced in a pilot city of China. Our contribution to the growing literature on moral hazard is to offer a neat identification of a causal effect of experience rating on road safety by employing the differences-in-differences methodology in the framework of a natural experiment. The pre-treatment placebo test corroborates the assumption that the pilot city and the control city share the same pre-reform time trends in claims. We find that basing insurance pricing on traffic violations reduces claim frequency significantly. These results are robust to the inclusion of vehicle controls, alternative definitions of claim frequency, two placebo experiment tests, and several robustness checks. The effects of basing pricing on past claims are not significant. |
| Keywords: | Insurance incentives; experience rating; road safety; natural experiment; China; traffic violation; past claim; moral hazard. |
| JEL: | C33 C35 D81 D82 G22 R41 |
| Date: | 2017–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:crcrmw:2017_001&r=tre |
| By: | Martin W. Adler (Free University Amsterdam); Rudiger Ahrend (OECD) |
| Abstract: | Pedestrians are vulnerable in traffic, with frequently reported injuries and fatalities. These risks are believed to be correlated with socio-economic attributes such as age, income or education levels. For Korea, it is shown that elderly pedestrians have a higher mortality risk than other road users. On a municipal level, risk factors are high car ownership, an aging population and low population density; factors associated with rural areas. Some tentative evidence also points to financially stronger municipalities having better traffic safety, which could reflect a larger capacity to maintain roads and implement road safety measures. |
| Keywords: | accident, ageing population, elderly, inclusiveness, Korea, pedestrian, regional, Traffic safety |
| JEL: | C25 H76 R41 |
| Date: | 2017–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:govaab:2017/3-en&r=tre |
| By: | Hernán Barahona; Francisco Gallego; Jeanne Juan-Pablo Montero |
| Abstract: | Driving restrictions —limits on car use based on the last digit of a car’s license plate— are increasingly popular forms of pollution and congestion control, notwithstanding the literature has shown they typically result in more pollution by moving the fleet composition toward higher emitting vehicles. We study a design feature present in some restriction programs but much overlooked in the literature: that cleaner cars be exempted from the restriction. Based on evidence from Santiago- Chile’s 1992 program, we find this exemption feature to have a large impact on fleet composition toward cleaner vehicles. We also develop and calibrate for Santiago a vertical differentiation model of the car market to show that driving restrictions that make optimal use of these exemptions can be way more effective in the fight against local air pollution than alternative instruments such as scrappage subsidies and gasoline taxes. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ioe:clabwp:24&r=tre |
| By: | Alan John Maniamkot (Indian Institute of Technology Bombay); P N Ram Kumar (Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode); R Sridharan (National Institute of Technology Calicut) |
| Abstract: | Convoy movement problem is the problem of routing and scheduling military convoys across a limited route network while satisfying some strategic constraints. The problem bears lot of similarities with other real-life applications such as scheduling passenger and freight trains along a single line network, scheduling aircraft landings on runways, routing of automated guided vehicles in a FMS environment, handling baggage along a common automated conveyer belt system, to name a few. Being a proven NP–complete problem, this problem warrants the usage of meta-heuristics to obtain quick solutions. This work focuses on the development of a hybridized ant colony algorithm that combines local search with ant colony optimization to solve the problem. By testing the methodology on a wide range of hypothetical problem instances, we establish the efficacy and practical relevance of the proposed approach. The importance of using a good seed solution for initializing the trail intensities is analyzed and found that it leads to quicker convergence of the algorithm. The need to hybridize the ant colony algorithm with a local search procedure for obtaining superior results is also demonstrated. |
| Keywords: | Military convoys; Ant colony; local search; hybridization; conflicts; metaheuristics. |
| Date: | 2016–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iik:wpaper:207&r=tre |
| By: | A.Kerem Cosar; Banu Demir |
| Abstract: | We quantify the effect of container technology on transport costs and trade by estimating the modal choice between containerization and breakbulk shipping using micro-level trade data. The model is motivated by novel facts that relate container usage to shipment, destination and firm characteristics. We find container transport to have a higher first-mile cost and a lower distance elasticity, making it cost effective in longer distances. At the median distance across all country pairs, the box decreases variable shipping costs between 16 to 22 percent. The box explains a significant amount of the global trade increase since its inception: a quantitative exercise suggests that Turkish and U.S. maritime exports would have been about two-thirds of what they are today in the absence of containers. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2016-37&r=tre |
| By: | Slak Valek, Nataša |
| Abstract: | Understanding how tourists move through time and space has become especially important since tourist has become more attentive to prices. This paper explores the issue of changing expenditures as part of understanding tourist’s travel patterns and their role in booking accommodation. The State tourism survey containing information from a sample of 497,466 foreign tourists who visited Slovenia in 2009 and 639,756 who visited in 2012 was used to ensure the representativeness. Analysis of variance was used to test the differences in expenditure made by foreign tourists traveling to Slovenian in 2009 and 2012. The results show that transportation expenditure has increased dramatically, but tourism expenditures on accommodation showed a significant downtrend. Beside the fuel prices other causes of these trends and future implications are discussed. Planners may use data presented here to understand how economic trends will affect future transport activity in relation to booking options. |
| Keywords: | Direct booking, travel agency, expenditures, tour package, overnights |
| JEL: | L83 M1 O1 |
| Date: | 2015–07–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:77406&r=tre |
| By: | Nava, Consuelo R.; Meleo, Linda; Cassetta, Ernesto; Morelli, Giovanna (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | In the next few years, it is estimated that the aviation sector will account for more than 15% of total GHG emissions against the current 5%. In order to curb emissions, Directive 101/2008/EC has included the aviation sector within the scope of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS). The EU-ETS is generating additional costs for airline companies. The present article develops an original model with which to analyse the impact of EU-ETS on the aviation sector's market equilibrium. Our study expands prior research by explicitly allowing for abatement efforts in the cost function of airline companies and by highlighting interactions among strategies to reduce emissions, firm's actions in the secondary market, free allowances, and fines. The results contribute to enhancing policy makers understanding of the impact of the EU-ETS on the aviation sector also in light of its potential global-level extension that is currently under negotiation. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uto:dipeco:201710&r=tre |
| By: | Cho , Lee-Jay (Northeast Asia Economic Forum); Lee , Chang-Jae (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The Northeast Asia Economic Forum (NEAEF) is a regional nongovernmental organization created in 1991 to sponsor and facilitate research, networking, and dialogue relevant to the economic and social development of Northeast Asia. The Forum is also committed to promoting understanding and relations among the peoples of Northeast Asia, North America, and Europe. The main objective is for NEAEF to conduct research and conference activities aimed at functional economic cooperation such as cross-border energy, transportation and logistics infrastructure development, and capital mobilization. The Forum holds annual conferences, workshops, and seminars for planning, facilitating, coordinating, and implementing international and interdisciplinary solutions to common policy problems. It is the only nongovernmental regional organization in which all the nations of Northeast Asia and the US are consistent and active participants. In collaboration with the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP), in 2015 NEAEF carried out activities on building a Northeast Asian Economic Community based on lessons learned from NEAEF’s previous work on financing cross-border functional economic cooperation. For the first year of this collaborative project the focus was on regional cooperation and strategies in Northeast oriented toward North Korea ― this work focused on functional economic cooperation in cross-border resources, energy supplies, infrastructure construction, capital mobilization, and institutional development. |
| Keywords: | Economic Development; Economic Integration; Northeast Asia |
| Date: | 2015–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepcp:2015_002&r=tre |
| By: | Kokkaew, Nakhon; Oliveira Cruz, Carlos; Alexander, Derek |
| Abstract: | As Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) around the world gain in popularity as a way to finance needed infrastructure, careful study prior to implementing PPP infrastructure projects becomes more important to avoid distress and cancellation in later stages. Unlike traditional infrastructure projects delivered using public finance, PPP projects usually have complex capital structures and multi-party operational control. These parties typically have differing, even diverging goals, which may conflict when faced with operating difficulty. The sponsors of those distressed PPP projects must then renegotiate their contracts with the host government and lenders if the project is to continue operating. This renegotiation occurs in the shadow of local law concerning security interests, contract rights, insolvency and bankruptcy, as parties calibrate their positions to potential downside outcomes. This paper examines the impact of such laws on the distressed PPP infrastructure projects in Thailand. The paper focuses the study on two main contracts commonly found in PPP projects: one between the sponsors and the host government, and the other between the sponsors and the secured lenders. |
| Keywords: | KEYWORDS: distressed PPP projects, PPP laws and regulations. |
| JEL: | G38 H54 P16 |
| Date: | 2015–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:77494&r=tre |
| By: | Steven Robins |
| Keywords: | Public Investments and Infrastructure |
| JEL: | E6 L3 R4 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdh:ebrief:253&r=tre |
| By: | Sana Akbar Khan (Dept. of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venice) |
| Abstract: | Existing research on innovation adoption is divided into two main streams: organizational innovation adoption and individual (consumer) innovation adoption. Proponents of both perspectives approach the topic in a variety of ways. Contrary to the organizational adoption, research on the consumer adoption investigates the determinants of adoption/non-adoption without considering the innovation- decision as a process. Particularly, for high involvement innovations that require efforts in terms of cost, money, and resources to switch to a new routine and behavior, innovation adoption as a multi- stage process is most relevant. In line with Rogers' (2003) multi-stage individual adoption process, this study aims to first explore the existence of distinct stages of innovation adoption and then identify the different determinants of each stage of adoption. To address both research questions, an exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and a structural equation modeling (SEM) technique were used. Data was collected from individuals using two different online surveys on smartwatch and alternative engine cars (AECs). Data from the first survey was used to extract factors using EFA. The results confirmed the existence of five distinct stages: knowledge, persuasion, decision, implementation, and confirmation. Based on these results, data from the second online survey was used to identify the predictors of each stage. Different determinants in terms of perceived innovation characteristics of AECs were analyzed using a structural model. In line with temporal distance theories and loss aversion theory, the findings show that perceived benefits of an innovation explain variation in persuasion stage, while perceived losses impact implementation stage. Decision and confirmation stages on the other hand are less explained. The study contributes by confirming the existence of distinct stages of consumer adoption of high involvement innovations and developing a framework which not only determines the direction but also the strength of the relationships between different determinants and adoption stages. |
| Keywords: | Consumer innovation adoption stages, alternative engine cars, perceived innovation characteristics, diffusion of innovation. |
| JEL: | M40 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vnm:wpdman:136&r=tre |
| By: | Christoph M. Rheinberger (European Chemicals Agency (ECHA)); Felix Schläpfer (Kalaidos University of Applied Sciences); Michael Lobsiger (B,S,S. Economic Consultants Ltd.) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the demand value of road safety improvements in Switzerland from survey data using a novel elicitation approach. Individuals’ responses to questions about how much public spending on road safety should be increased are combined with observations of income, tax rate, and road usage to estimate the economic value of a statistical accident avoided. Information obtained from a risk-risk tradeoff elicitation allows us to distinguish willingness-to-pay values for various degrees of accident severity. Our most comprehensive estimate of the value of a statistical accident avoided amounts to CHF 11.0 million ($11.6 million); the corresponding value per statistical life is close to CHF 4.2 million ($4.5 million). We explore the sensitivity of these estimates to anchoring and other framing effects and find that the popularity of specific road safety programs is influenced by both the availability of different choice options and the provision of partisan cues expressing political endorsement or opposition. |
| Keywords: | Road Safety, Value of Life, Public Goods |
| JEL: | H41 I38 J17 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2017.15&r=tre |