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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Ling-yun He; Li Liu |
| Abstract: | Road transport sector is found to be one of the major emitters, and responsible for serious air pollution and huge pubic health losses. One important parameter for determining the consequences of transport demand shocks for the macroeconomy, air pollution and public health is the elasticity of the demand for transport. Most published studies that use flexible functional forms have ignored the theoretical regularity conditions implied by microeconomic theories. Moreover, even a few studies have checked and/or imposed regularity conditions, most of them equate curvature alone with regularity, thus ignoring or minimizing the importance of other regularities. And then, the results appear biased and may in fact be biased. Therefore, we select three of the most widely used flexible functional forms, the Rotterdam model, the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS), and the quadratic AIDS (QUAIDS) to investigate the demand for road transport in China using recent annual expenditure data, over a 13 year period from 2002 to 2014, on three expenditure categories in the transportation sector: private transportation, local transportation and intercity transportation. Estimation shows that the AIDS model is the only model that is able to provide theoretically consistent estimates of the residents demand for road transport in China. Our estimates show that the private transportation is a luxury among the transportation goods, and is elastic in price changes relatively. The empirical results imply that the private and the local transportation, the local and intercity transportation are gross complements. And, the private transportation is a substitute for the inter-city transportation, while the intercity transportation is a complement of the private transportation. |
| Date: | 2016–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1612.02656&r=tre |
| By: | Smith, Andrew S.J. (Institute for Transport Studies (ITS) and Leeds University Business School); Odolinski, Kristofer (VTI); Hossein Nia, Saeed (KTH); Jönsson, Per-Anders (KTH); Stichel, Sebastian (KTH); Iwnicki, Simon (Institute of Railway Research (IRR), University of Huddersfield); Wheat, Phillip (Institute for Transport Studies (ITS) and Leeds University Business School) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we combine engineering and economic methods to estimate the relative cost of damage mechanisms on the Swedish rail infrastructure. The former method is good at predicting damage from traffic, while the latter is suitable for establishing a relationship between damage and cost. We exploit the best features of both methods in a two-stage approach and demonstrate its applicability for rail infrastructure charging. Our estimations are based on 143 track sections comprising about 11 000 km of tracks. We demonstrate how the estimated relative costs of damage mechanisms can be used in order to calculate the marginal wear and tear cost of different vehicle types. The results are relevant for infrastructure managers in Europe who desire to differentiate their track access charges such that each vehicle pays its short run-marginal wear and tear cost, which can create a more efficient use of the rail infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | Marginal cost; Rail infrastructure; Maintenance; Access charging; Track damage; Econometric methods; Engineering simulation |
| JEL: | L92 R48 |
| Date: | 2016–12–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2016_026&r=tre |
| By: | Gerlagh, Reyer (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Van Den Bijgaart, Inge (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Nijland, Hans; Michielsen, Thomas (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Abstract: | To what extent have national fiscal policies contributed to the decarbonisation of newly sold passenger cars? We construct a simple model that generates predictions regarding the effect of fiscal policies on average CO2 emissions of new cars, and then test the model empirically. Our empirical strategy combines a diverse series of data. First, we use a large database of vehicle-specific taxes in 15 EU countries over 2001–2010 to construct a measure for the vehicle registration and annual road tax levels, and separately, for the CO2 sensitivity of these taxes. We find that for many countries the fiscal policies have become more sensitive to CO2 emissions of new cars. We then use these constructed measures to estimate the effect of fiscal policies on the CO2 emissions of the new car fleet. The increased CO2-sensitivity of registration taxes have reduced the CO2 emission intensity of the average new car by 1.3 %, partly through an induced increase of the share of diesel-fuelled cars by 6.5 percentage points. Higher fuel taxes lead to the purchase of more fuel efficient cars, but higher diesel fuel taxes also decrease the share of (more fuel efficient) diesel cars; higher annual road taxes have no or an adverse effect. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:1d2ea483-9adf-4875-9df0-1113bd1f2366&r=tre |
| By: | Lu-Yi Qiu; Ling-Yun He |
| Abstract: | The air pollution has become a serious challenge in China. Emissions from motor vehicles have been found as one main source of air pollution. Although the Chinese government has taken numerous policies to mitigate the harmful emissions from road transport sector, it is still uncertain for both policy makers and researchers to know to what extent the policies are effective in the short and long terms. Inspired by the concept and empirical results from current literature on energy rebound effect (ERE), we first propose a new concept of pollution rebound effect (PRE). Then, we estimate direct air PRE as a measure for the effectiveness of the policies of reducing air pollution from transport sector based on time-series data from the period 1986-2014. We find that the short-term direct air PRE is -1.4105, and the corresponding long-run PRE is -1.246. The negative results indicate that the direct air PRE does not exist in road passenger transport sector in China, either in the short term or in the long term during the period 1986-2014. This implies that the Chinese transport policies are effective in terms of harmful emissions reduction in the transport sector. This research, to the best of our knowledge, is the first attempt to quantify the effectiveness of the transport policies in the transitional China. |
| Date: | 2016–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1612.02653&r=tre |
| By: | Wesche, Julius P.; Plötz, Patrick; Dütschke, Elisabeth |
| Abstract: | Plug-in electric vehicles (PPEVs) have noteworthy potential to reduce global and local emissions and are expected to become a relevant future market for vehicle sales. Both policy makers and car manufacturers have an interest to understand the future PEV user groups, also those beyond the current 'early adopter'. However, there are only a few empirical results available about potential future PEV users. Here, we use data from a representative survey on PEV interest from Germany to analyse factors that are related to interest in PEVs of private car buyers. Interest in PEV implies a positive attitude towards this new technology and is thus a prerequisite for later adoption. Our results show that technology affinity and the feeling that an PEV can serve the user's driving need are positively connected to interest in PEVs. Furthermore, persons that connect a strong feeling of independence with conventional vehicles are less likely to be interested in PEVs. Our results indicate that automakers promoting PEVs should focus their marketing on the new yet ready technology in the next years. |
| Keywords: | electric vehicles,early adopter,early majority,market diffusion,consumer behaviour |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s072016&r=tre |
| By: | Xu, Hangtian; Itoh, Hidekazu |
| Abstract: | By exploiting the 1995 Hanshin earthquake, which occurred in Japan, as an exogenous shock to the container shipping industry of northeastern Asia, this study provides an empirical relevance of the role of transport density economies in shaping the transport geography. The Hanshin earthquake caused severe damage to the Kobe port. Consequently, its container throughput was largely diverted to the nearby Busan port, which scaled up in this windfall. Focusing on the long-term growth of major port areas in northeastern Asia, we find that extensive diversions of container traffic occurred after the earthquake from Tokyo and Yokohama ports to Busan port, although container shipping operations in Tokyo and Yokohama ports were not directly affected by the earthquake. We interpret the economies of transport density benefitting Busan as the underlying mechanism; increased transport density allows Busan port to further enlarge its hinterlands and reshape the transport geography. We also find that the unintended diversions of container shipping lead to a structural change of manufacturing pattern in related regions. |
| Keywords: | hub port; density economies; transport geography; earthquake |
| JEL: | F1 L0 R4 |
| Date: | 2016–12–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:75580&r=tre |
| By: | Laurent Denant-Boèmont (University of Rennes1 - CREM UMR CNRS 6211, France); Carl Gaigné (INRA, UMR1302 SMART, France and University of LAVAL, CREATE, Québec, Canada); Romain Gaté (University of Rennes1 - CREM UMR CNRS 6211, France and INRA, UMR1302 SMART, France) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the effects of urban design on pollution and welfare. We build a theoretical model of residential choices with pollution externalities arising from commuting, where the size of the central business district (CBD) and the demand for housing are endogenous. We show that a polycentric city is desirable from welfare and ecological perspective, provided that travel speed and/or the number of roads directly connected with the CBD are sufficiently high. The spatial extension of cities remains the critical variable to curb transport-related urban pollution. |
| Keywords: | Urban form; Housing; Travel speed; Carbon emissions; Welfare |
| JEL: | Q53 R14 R21 |
| Date: | 2016–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tut:cremwp:2016-18&r=tre |
| By: | Odolinski , Kristofer (VTI) |
| Abstract: | In this paper the cost impact of rail infrastructure usage in Sweden is estimated, using a measure of the cumulative tons experienced by the tracks since they were renewed. The cost elasticity with respect to this measure is compared to the corresponding estimate from annual tons, a standard measure of output in the literature. The cumulative ton measure generates a higher cost elasticity compared to annual tons, and is quite high for tracks that have been extensively used. The results are informative for the Swedish infrastructure manager that needs to strike a balance between maintenance and renewals; the expected cost of maintenance with respect to accumulated use can be compared to the expected cost of a renewal. |
| Keywords: | Rail infrastructure; Maintenance costs; Cumulative tons |
| JEL: | L92 R48 |
| Date: | 2016–12–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2016_028&r=tre |
| By: | Dozie Okoye (Department of Economics, Dalhousie University); Roland Pongou (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa); Tite Yokossi (Department of Economics, MIT) |
| Abstract: | We examine Fogel’s influential hypothesis that new transportation technologies may be dispensable if pre-existing technologies are viable or can simply be improved. Exploiting the construction of colonial railroads in Nigeria, we find that the railway has large long-lasting impacts on individual and local development in the North, but virtually no impact in the South neither in the short run nor in the long run. This heterogeneous impact of the railway can be accounted for by the level of pre-railway access to ports of export. Consistent with Fogel’s argument, the railway did not transform areas that had viable transportation alternatives for exporting purposes. Using information on changes in shipping costs and quantities, we highlight the importance of opportunity costs to the adoption and impact of new transportation investments. |
| Keywords: | Fogel’s Hypothesis, Colonial Investments, Railway, Africa, Development, Nigeria |
| JEL: | I20 N30 N37 N47 O15 Z12 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ott:wpaper:1620e&r=tre |
| By: | Odolinski , Kristofer (VTI); Nilsson , Jan-Eric (VTI) |
| Abstract: | One cornerstone of EU’s railway policy is that track user charges should be based on marginal costs for infrastructure use. This paper updates knowledge about the marginal cost of maintaining Sweden’s railway network. Using an extended panel dataset, now comprising 16 years, we corroborate previous results using a static model framework. However, the results from the dynamic model show that an increase in maintenance cost during one year increases costs in the next year, which is contrasting previous estimates on a shorter panel dataset. We conclude that more data made a difference in a dynamic setting, but the estimated cost elasticities are rather robust in a European context. |
| Keywords: | Marginal cost; Rail infrastructure; Maintenance; Access charging; Dynamic model |
| JEL: | L92 R48 |
| Date: | 2016–12–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2016_027&r=tre |
| By: | Bernhardt, A.; Melo, Teresa; Bousonville, Thomas; Kopfer, Herbert |
| Abstract: | When considering long-haul transport requests, the durations of rest periods and breaks highly influence the overall time needed for fulfillment. In the European Union, Regulation (EC) No 561/2006 defines the rules for the number, duration and time intervals when rest periods and breaks have to be taken. The present study proposes two mixed integer linear programming models and optimization strategies that, together with a transformation algorithm, allow to plan driver activities in compliance with this regulation for a given sequence of customer locations and other stops to be visited. One of the models considers all rules, including extended rules, while the other takes into account the regular requirements. Each customer location has one or multiple time windows among which a choice has to be made. A special feature is the consideration of "soft" time windows which has not been studied in this context so far. If time windows cannot be met, the resulting schedule gives important information to the dispatcher that is necessary to set up a better schedule. In online re-planning, lateness can be revealed at an early stage such that it is possible to reorganize the schedule or to negotiate arrival times with customers before communication effort and costs increase and further delays or cancellations are unavoidable. In addition to the mathematical models, a myopic algorithm was developed that can only "see" the route until the next customer stop and the corresponding customer time window in advance and plans driver activities accordingly. Simple strategies were chosen to also integrate the optional rules. Test instances were derived from real data and include vehicle routes for one week. The numerical results obtained with the mathematical models and the myopic algorithm are analyzed and compared in terms of the run time, lateness and overall travel time. |
| Keywords: | road transportation,driver scheduling,rest periods,breaks,driving hours,Regulation (EC) No 561/2006,mixed integer linear programming models |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:htwlog:12&r=tre |
| By: | Esther Vayá (AQR-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona); José Ramón García (AQR-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona); Joaquim Murillo (AQR-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona); Javier Romaní (AQR-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona); Jordi Suriñach (AQR-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | Tourism is a highly dynamic sector. An example of this is the boom that cruise tourism has seen in recent years, leading many countries to consider cruises a key product in their development of tourism. The Port of Barcelona has become the leading cruise port in the Mediterranean area (2.4 million cruise passengers in 2014), highlighting its role as both a port of call and a homeport. Such leadership is explained by the conjunction of several factors: its strategic geographical position, its high quality port and transportation infrastructures, and the attractiveness of the city of Barcelona itself, for both its cultural and artistic heritage and its leisure and shopping opportunities. This article quantifies the local and regional economic impact generated by cruise activity in the Port of Barcelona. Using input-output methodology, its overall impact is computed for the year 2014 as the sum of three partial impacts: direct effect, indirect effect and induced effect. This article is pioneering at the European level, in combining different issues: estimating the impact of the Barcelona Cruise Port activity, presenting these impacts disaggregated at a sectoral level, using a rigorous methodology and carrying out extensive fieldwork. The estimated impacts demonstrate that all sectors, not just traditional tourism-related sectors, benefit from cruise tourism. Despite the significant economic benefits that cruise activity has generated over the whole Catalan economy, it is important to note that such activity also generates negative externalities associated with congestion and environmental issues. The reduction of these negative effects is one of the major challenges in making the development of cruise tourism sustainable in a city like Barcelona |
| Keywords: | Cruise Tourism, Port of Barcelona, Economic Impact, Input-Output Methodology. |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:xrp:wpaper:xreap2016-07&r=tre |
| By: | Kaori Miyamoto (OECD); Emilio Chiofalo (OECD) |
| Abstract: | This working paper provides a broad picture of official financial flows for infrastructure development in developing countries by bilateral and multilateral development partners. Multilateral development banks are further examined in a special section. The paper offers an overview of volumes and distributions of financial flows, including those channelled to private sector operations and those mobilised from the private sector by guarantees, syndicated loans and collective investment vehicles. This report, which builds on previous work on the topic, will contribute to research and policy dialogue on filling the financial gap in infrastructure in developing countries. It will also support the monitoring of Sustainable Development Goal 9 and the discussions of the G20 on infrastructure development. |
| Keywords: | Development Agency, donor, Infrastructure, Multilateral Development Bank, Official Development Finance |
| Date: | 2016–12–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:dcdaaa:30-en&r=tre |
| By: | Durrmeyer, Isis; Samano, Mario |
| Abstract: | We compare the welfare effects in equilibrium of two environmental regulations that aim at increasing the new cars fleet’s average fuel efficiency: the fuel economy standards and the feebate policies. Maintaining the same environmental benefit and tax revenue, we simulate the implementation of each policy in France and the United States. Standard-type policies have larger negative welfare effects, up to 3.2 times those from the feebate. Effects on manufacturers are heterogeneous: some are better of under the standard regulation. The addition of a market to trade levels of fuel efficiency dominates the simple standard regulation but not always the feebate. We also consider the attribute-based standard, technological improvements, and the equivalence with fuel taxes as extensions. |
| Keywords: | Environmental regulation, automobile market, structural model, policy simulations |
| JEL: | C51 L50 Q51 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:31175&r=tre |
| By: | Isis Durrmeyer (U Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | We develop a new empirical model of market equilibrium with second-degree price discrimination and oligopolistic competition based on an extension of Rochet & Stole (2002) non-linear pricing theory to multiproduct firms. The demand system is semi-parametrically identified. We estimate the model using French automobile data and take advantage of observing prices and market shares at the car model version level. We test the existence of second-degree price discrimination under imperfect competition. We extend the structural analysis of nonlinear pricing to an oligopolistic setting (see Luo, Perrigne & Vuong). Our demand estimate is semi-parametric and does not rely on the exogeneity of characteristics assumptions and on instruments. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:1704&r=tre |
| By: | Mercedes Ayuso (Riskcenter, Universitat de Barcelona); Montserrat Guillén (Riskcenter, Universitat de Barcelona); Jens Perch Nielsen (Cass Business School, City University London) |
| Abstract: | We show how data collected from a GPS device can be incorporated in motor insurance ratemaking. The calculation of premium rates based upon driver behaviour represents an opportunity for the insurance sector. Our approach is based on count data regression models for frequency, where exposure is driven by the distance travelled and additional parameters that capture characteristics of automobile usage and which may affect claiming behaviour. We propose implementing a classical frequency model that is updated with telemetrics information. We illustrate the method using real data from usage-based insurance policies. Results show that not only the distance travelled by the driver, but also driver habits, significantly influence the expected number of accidents and, hence, the cost of insurance coverage. Telemetry should facilitate the inclusion within insurance pricing of those factors that traffic authorities identify as being associated with risky drivers, including, for example, traffic violations. |
| Keywords: | tariff, premium calculation, pay-as-you-drive insurance, count data models |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:xrp:wpaper:xreap2016-08&r=tre |