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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Jonsson, Lina (WSP); Björklund, Gunilla (VTI) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of the present study is to estimate accident risks and marginal costs for railway level crossings in Sweden. The marginal effect of train traffic on the accident risk is used to derive the marginal cost per train passage that is due to level crossing accidents. The estimations are based on Swedish data from 2000 to 2012 on level crossing accidents, train volume, and crossing characteristics. In this study we estimate the accidents risk for both motorized road traffic and vulnerable road users. As a proxy for road traffic flow we use three categories of road type, and to capture the influences of pedestrians and bicyclists we use information about the number of persons living nearby the level crossing. The results show that both protection device, road type, traffic volume of the trains, and number of persons living nearby the level crossing have significant influences on the accident probability. The marginal cost per train passage regarding motor vehicle accidents is estimated at SEK 1.50 on average in 2012. Corresponding number for accidents with vulnerable road users is 3.32. The cost per train passage varies substantially depending on type of protection device, road type, the traffic volume of the trains, and number of persons living nearby the crossing. |
| Keywords: | Railway; Marginal cost; Accident probability; Level crossings |
| JEL: | D62 H23 R41 |
| Date: | 2016–11–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2016_022&r=tre |
| By: | Nicolas Coulombel (LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - PRES Université Paris-Est); Fabien Leurent (LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - PRES Université Paris-Est); Shaoqing Wang (LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - PRES Université Paris-Est); Florent Le Néchet (LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - PRES Université Paris-Est) |
| Abstract: | The Spidernet concept consists in making a metropolitan, heavy rail station the hub of a web of elevated guided ways dedicated to small-size cabins driven automatically. Thus, comfortable point-to-point transport service would be provided to passengers, offering both speed and reliability (since its running would be uninterrupted), together with quick access and short wait at egress station were there sufficiently many " podcars ". This specific concept of Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) is purported to empower the local attraction of the heavy network and to develop the hub potential as service centre and urban centre. The paper investigates these issues in the case of the St Denis station in the Grand Paris Express network by the time horizon of implementation. After introducing the territorial context and putting forward a tentative scheme of Spidernet dedicated ways and stations, we turn to simulation to study potential demand, multimodal effects, fare sensitivity and potential revenues, as well as capital and operational costs. Two models are used complementarily: first, a macroscopic, four-step Travel Demand Model at the regional level; then, PRTSim is used for microscopic traffic simulation of both passengers and podcars. Microsimulation is essential to infer realistic enough traffic conditions on the supply side (way capacity, fleet size) as well as on the demand side (effective quality of service, wait time at access station, opportunity of car-sharing). The tentative estimation of revenues and costs suggests that financial profitability might be achieved. Yet a number of important topics still deserve further investigation. |
| Keywords: | PRT,Travel demand,Microscopic traffic simulation,Technical-economic analysis |
| Date: | 2016–09–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01373127&r=tre |
| By: | Lavanya Ravikanth Anneboina (Madras School of Economics); K. S. Kavi Kumar (Professor,Madras School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The share of coastal shipping in the modal mix of domestic freight transportation in India is currently very low despite it being more costeffective, fuel-efficient and environment-friendly compared to other modes of transportation. This paper estimates the benefits of coastal shipping, which are simply the costs avoided by transporting goods via sea as opposed to transporting them by road or rail. The economic, environmental and social benefits of coastal shipping are valued in the range of Rs. 16 – 64 billion per annum in 2012-13 prices. In physical terms, greenhouse gas emissions reductions amount to between 1 – 22 lakh tonnes of carbon per annum. The lower- and upper-bound values in the range represent cost savings (or emissions reductions) with respect to rail and road transport respectively. The results indicate that the country would stand to gain from a modal shift in freight transportation from road and rail transport to coastal shipping. |
| Keywords: | Coastal shipping; Freight transport; Cost savings; Transport policy Classification-JEL: L91; Q57; R40 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mad:wpaper:2016-147&r=tre |
| By: | Jussila Hammes , Johanna (VTI); Pyddoke , Roger (VTI); Swärdh, Jan-Erik (VTI) |
| Abstract: | We analyse the impact of increased public transport supply on private car use using micro data on individuals from 17 mid-sized cities in Sweden. The data is obtained from Swedish administrative registers (tax and odometer), which exists for all Swedish adults and cars, and information of public transport supply, namely bus kilometres supplied. In a description of the data we see that that the increase of private Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT) per inhabitant stagnate in the sample cities towards the end of the period 1997-2011. Our hypothesis is that changes in the supply of public transport is the main cause for this stagnation. The probability of owning a car and the demand functions for VKT are estimated. The principal finding is that private car use is reduced by increased supply of bus kilometres with an average elasticity ranging from -0.01 to -0.04. This effect is larger in peripheral areas and in larger cities. In small cities the effect is almost nil. We conclude that public transport has an effect on the private VKT of inhabitants but that the impact is relatively small and cannot be the main cause for the stagnating increase of private VKT per inhabitant in the sample cities. |
| Keywords: | Heckman selection model; Private car use; Public transport; Sweden; Vehicle kilometres travelled |
| JEL: | R48 |
| Date: | 2016–11–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2016_025&r=tre |
| By: | Alicia Garcia-Herrero (NATIXIS; Department of Economics, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Institute for Emerging Market Studies, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Jianwei Xu (Beijing Normal University) |
| Abstract: | The Belt and Road initiative, recently embarked on by China, aims to improve cross-border infrastructure in order to reduce transportation costs across a massive geographical area between China and Europe. We estimate how much trade might be created among Belt and Road countries as a consequence of the reduction in transportation costs (both railway and maritime) and find that European Union countries, especially landlocked countries, should benefit considerably. This is also true for Eastern Europe and Central Asia and, to a lesser extent, south-east Asia. In contrast, if China were to seek to establish a free trade area within the Belt and Road region, EU member states would benefit less, while Asia would benefit more. Xi Jinping’s current vision for the Belt and Road, centred on improving transport infrastructure, is very good news for Europe as far as trade creation is concerned. |
| Keywords: | China, Belt & Road initiative, infrastructure, international economic system |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hku:wpaper:201638&r=tre |
| By: | Llorca, M.; Jamasb, T. |
| Abstract: | Energy efficiency has become a primary energy policy goal in Europe and many other countries and has conditioned the policies towards energy-intensive sectors such as road freight transport. However, energy efficiency improvements can lead to changes in the demand for energy services that offset some of the expected energy savings in the form of rebound effects. Consequently, forecasts of energy savings can be overstated. This paper analyses the energy efficiency and rebound effects for road freight transport in 15 European countries during the 1992-2012 period. We use a recent methodology to estimate an energy demand function using a stochastic frontier analysis approach and examine the influence of key features of rebound effect in the road freight transport sector. We obtain on average a fuel efficiency of 91% and a rebound effect of 18%. Our results indicate that the achieved energy efficiencies are retained to a large extent. We also find, among other results, that the rebound effect is higher in countries with higher fuel efficiency and better quality of logistics. Finally, a simulation analysis shows significant environmental externalities costs even in countries with lower rebound effect. |
| Keywords: | European road freight transport; stochastic frontier analysis; energy efficiency; rebound effect. |
| JEL: | C5 Q4 Q5 R4 |
| Date: | 2016–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:1654&r=tre |
| By: | Sylvain Weber (University of Neuchatel, Institute of Economic Research, Rue Abram-Louis Breguet 2, 2000 Neuchatel, Switzerland.) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how car sales in Switzerland react to several attributes of the vehicles. In particular, the market share reactions to engine fuel intensity, weight and horsepower are estimated. Our data include sales figures, list prices and technical characteristics for each model marketed over the period 2006-2015. We find that the market significantly rewards more efficient and powerful vehicles, while light cars are preferred to heavy ones. Our results also reveal an increasing willingness-to-pay for fuel efficiency. However, interaction effects between engine fuel intensity and power indicate a lower marginal valuation of fuel efficiency among powerful car purchasers, implying a low sensitivity to fuel efficiency among the consumers responsible for most polluting emissions. Also, this finding point to potential rebound effects, where consumers give up part of the expected fuel savings by purchasing more powerful vehicles. |
| Keywords: | Willingness-to-pay, Engine fuel efficiency, Car weight, Horsepower, Rebound effect. |
| JEL: | D12 Q41 R41 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irn:wpaper:16-12&r=tre |
| By: | Odolinski, Kristofer (VTI); Wheat , Phillip (Institute for Transport Studies (ITS), University of Leeds) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we analyze the dynamics between rail infrastructure renewals and maintenance in Sweden, using a panel vector autoregressive model. The model estimation also comprises intertemporal effects for each of these activities. We find that past values of maintenance gives a better prediction of current renewal costs compared to only using past values of renewals as a predictor. Moreover, the results indicate intertemporal effects for both renewals and maintenance, where an increase in costs during a year predicts an increase in costs in the following year. The dynamic model also allows us to estimate equilibrium cost elasticities with respect to ton density, which are significantly larger than its static counterparts. Overall, this work highlights that dynamics in rail infrastructure costs are important to consider when setting track access charges with respect to the wear and tear caused by traffic. |
| Keywords: | Maintenance; Renewals; Vector autoregression; Rail infrastructure |
| JEL: | L92 R48 |
| Date: | 2016–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2016_023&r=tre |
| By: | Bekkers, Eddy; Francois, Joseph; Rojas-Romagosa, Hugo |
| Abstract: | One consequence of melting Arctic ice caps is the commercial viability of the Northern Sea Route, connecting East Asia with Europe. This represents a sizeable reduction in shipping distances and average transportation days, compared to the conventional Southern Sea Route. We examine the economic impact of opening this route in a multi-sector Eaton-Kortum model with intermediate linkages. We find remarkable shifts in trade flows between Asia and Europe, diversion of trade within Europe, heavy shipping traffic in the Arctic and a substantial drop in Suez traffic. Projected shifts in trade also imply substantial pressure on an already threatened Arctic ecosystem. |
| Keywords: | gravity model; Northern Sea Route; quantitative trade models; trade and emissions; trade forecasting |
| JEL: | C2 D58 F17 F18 R4 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11670&r=tre |
| By: | Okoye, Dozie; Pongou, Roland; Yokossi, Tite |
| Abstract: | We examine Fogel's influential hypothesis that new transportation technologies may be dispensable if pre-existing technologies are viable or can simply be improved. Exploiting the construction of colonial railroads in Nigeria, we find that the railway has large long-lasting impacts on individual and local development in the North, but virtually no impact in the South neither in the short run nor in the long run. This heterogeneous impact of the railway can be accounted for by the level of pre-railway access to ports of export. Consistent with Fogel's argument, the railway did not transform areas that had viable transportation alternatives for exporting purposes. Using information on changes in shipping costs and quantities, we highlight the importance of opportunity costs to the adoption and impact of new transportation investments. |
| Keywords: | Fogel's Hypothesis, Colonial Investments, Railway, Africa, Development, Nigeria |
| JEL: | J0 J00 N0 N00 N7 N77 N9 O1 |
| Date: | 2016–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:75262&r=tre |
| By: | Julien Brunet (Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - Polytechnique - X - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jean-Pierre Ponssard (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - Polytechnique - X - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The paper provides a cost benefit analysis of one of the most prominent deployment project in France of fuel cell electric vehicles, taking place in Normandy. The project builds on the substitution of a diesel Renault Kangoo by an electric Renault Kangoo ZE with a fuel cell range extender for public fleets. The analysis points out potential weaknesses of the project as it is envisioned today using a decomposition of the value-chain. To achieve sustainability in 2025 a much stronger deployment should take place. This would allow for a sharp decrease in the total cost of ownership thanks to a close coordination between hydrogen production and its delivery through refilling stations to take advantage of the expected increasing volume of hydrogen consumption along the deployment path. This suggests that a high level in public funds at this early deployment phase can be critical for the success of the project. |
| Keywords: | fuel cell electric vehicles, cost benefit analysis, public policies, infrastructure |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01366205&r=tre |
| By: | Stephen P. Holland; Erin T. Mansur; Nicholas Z. Muller; Andrew J. Yates |
| Abstract: | We examine the distributional effects of changes in local air pollution from driving electric vehicles in the United States. We employ an econometric model to estimate power plant emissions and an integrated assessment model to value damages in air pollution from both electric and gasoline vehicles. Using the locations of currently registered electric vehicles, we find that people living in census block groups with median income greater than about $65,000 receive positive environmental benefits from these vehicles while those below this threshold receive negative environmental benefits. Asian and Hispanic residents receive positive environmental benefits, but White and Black residents receive negative environmental benefits. In multivariate analyses, environmental benefits are positively correlated with income and urban measures, conditional on racial composition. In addition, conditional on income and urbanization, separate regressions find environmental benefits to be positively related with Asian and Hispanic block-group population shares, negatively correlated with White share, and uncorrelated with Black share. Environmental benefits tend to be larger in states offering purchase subsidies. However, for these states, an increase in subsidy size is associated with a decrease in created environmental benefits. |
| JEL: | H23 Q4 Q5 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22862&r=tre |
| By: | Hess, Stephane (Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds); Börjesson, Maria (KTH) |
| Abstract: | Numerous cities around the world are considering the implementation of road pricing to ease urban traffic congestion, following on from the success in cities such as London and Singapore. However, policy makers are also all too aware of the generally negative public opinion towards such measures. This study makes use of data collected in four cities (two in Sweden, one in Finland and one in France) using a very consistent survey probing for citizens’ attitudes towards pricing. We find very strong similarities across the four cities in terms of a number of underlying attitudinal constructs that help explain people’s answers in a hypothetical referendum on congestion pricing. The similarities across cities indicate that the increase in the opinion towards congestion pricing once they are introduced is not primarily an effect of changes in underlying attitudes, changes in how the underlying attitudes influence the support for congestion pricing, or differences in anticipated versus experienced or perceived self-interest. Instead this effect seems to be caused by a status quo acceptance, tending to increase the support for the current situation. |
| Keywords: | Congestion charging; Pricing acceptability; Road user attitudes |
| JEL: | R41 R42 R48 |
| Date: | 2016–11–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2016_024&r=tre |
| By: | Olsson, Ola (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Eriksson Baaz, Maria (School of Global Studies, University of Gothenburg); Martinsson, Peter (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University) |
| Abstract: | It is by now generally agreed that government corruption is a serious impediment to economic growth. An intensive use of informal tolls and bribes on roads and waterways still prevail in several developing countries, hampering trade and economic development. On the basis of a general model of a trader travelling downstream past multiple stations and taxing authorities, we study the extent and magnitude of informal taxation on traders in Democratic Republic of Congo. River Congo is arguably one of the most important transportation routes in Africa in one of the world’s poorest countries. We show that informal tax payments per individual journey still make up about 14 percent of the variable costs and 9 times the monthly salary of a public official. Price discrimination in taxing is present in the sense that the value of the cargo is the main determinant of informal taxes paid whereas personal or other characteristics do not seem to have a strong impact. In line with hold-up theory, the average level of informal taxation tends to increase downstream closer to Kinshasa, but authorities that were explicitly banned from taxing instead extract more payments upstream. |
| Keywords: | Informal taxes; Congo; trade; corruption; river transport |
| JEL: | D60 D73 D80 H20 K42 O55 R48 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0679&r=tre |
| By: | Frechette, Guilaume; Lizzeri, Alessandro; Salz, Tobias |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a dynamic general equilibrium model of a taxi mar- ket. The model is estimated using data from New York City yellow cabs. Two salient features by which most taxi markets deviate from the efficient market ideal is the need of both market sides to physically search for trading partners in the product market as well as prevalent regulatory limitations on entry in the capital market. To assess the relevance of these features we use the model to simulate the effect of changes in entry and an alternative search technology. The results are contrasted with a policy that improves the inten- sive margin of medallion utilization through a transfer of medallions to more efficient ownership. We use the geographical features of New York City to back out unobserved demand through a matching simulation. |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11626&r=tre |
| By: | Bruno Faivre d'Arcier (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État [ENTPE] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Yveline Lecler (IAO - Institut d'Asie Orientale - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Benoît Granier (IAO - Institut d'Asie Orientale - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Nicolas Leprêtre (IAO - Institut d'Asie Orientale - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | L’origine de cette recherche réside dans le lancement en 2010 par le Ministère japonais de l’Economie, du Commerce et de l’Industrie (METI), d’un programme d’expérimentations dénommé « Energie de Nouvelle Génération et Systèmes Sociaux » (Next Generation Energy and Social Systems), incitant des collectivités locales à candidater, en lien avec des consortiums d’entreprises, pour mettre en œuvre des démonstrateurs visant à mieux gérer la production et la consommation d’énergie au travers des « réseaux électriques intelligents » (smart grid), dans le but notamment de réduire les gaz à effet de serre (GES). Ces démonstrateurs sont conçus comme une opportunité pour vérifier en situation réelle et à grande échelle l’efficacité de solutions techniques nouvelles, favorisant le développement des énergies renouvelables et la sobriété énergétique. Le programme comprend un volet « Systèmes de transport et de mobilité », introduisant ainsi un lien original avec un secteur émetteur de CO2 et consommateur d’énergie. Le focus mis sur l’électromobilité justifie en grande partie cette prise en compte, mais souligne également l’importance, y compris en France, de favoriser une plus grande intégration des approches entre le transport, l’urbanisme, l’énergie et l’environnement. L’appel à propositions du GO6 du PREDIT a mis l’accent sur les situations de crise et de ruptures, tout en observant les tendances émergentes (prospective sur le long terme). En proposant une veille et une analyse comparative France-Japon sur le développement des smart communities, cette recherche s’inscrit bien dans les termes de l’appel : cela concerne tout à la fois les questions énergétiques et environnementales, l’évolution potentielle des comportements (axe 1), et les politiques publiques d’innovation (axe 2). La recherche s’est en effet fixée comme objectif d’étudier les processus sous-jacents à la mise en œuvre d’expérimentations de grande taille mais correspondant aux attentes des villes, à la recherche d’un modèle de développement bas carbone, et aux entreprises, fortement attirées par le développement de technologies vertes, qui vont constituer un marché en rapide expansion dans le monde entier. Cette apparente conjonction d’intérêts ne doit cependant pas cacher que des stratégies multiples puissent être mises en œuvre par les nombreux acteurs impliqués. L’intérêt de cette expérimentation à grande échelle, sur des territoires diversifiés y compris à l’étranger et notamment à Lyon, réside à la fois dans ses composantes technologiques particulièrement variées, et dans les modalités d’implication des populations elles aussi très variées. |
| Keywords: | solutions techniques,politique énergétique,comparaison France-Japon,électromobilité,smart cities,comportement de consommation des ménages,gestion de l’énergie,Projet SMARTMOB,implication des populations,smart communities,gestion de l’électricité,enjeux industriels,acceptation sociale,politiques de mobilité durable,enjeux énergétiques,pilotage public/privé |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01382640&r=tre |
| By: | Pierre Picard (Ecole Polytechnique [Palaiseau]); Kili Wang (Tamkang University) |
| Abstract: | The delegation of services from producers to retailers is frequently at the origin of transaction costs, associated with the discretion in the way retailers do their job. This is particularly the case when retailers and customers collude to exploit loopholes in the contracts between producers and customers. In this paper, we analyze how insurance distribution channels may affect such misbehaviors, when car repairers are joining policy holders to defraud insurers. We focus attention on the Taiwan automobile insurance market by using a database provided by the largest Taiwanese automobile insurer. The theoretical underpinning of our analysisis provided by a model of claims fraud with collusion and audit. Our econometric analysis con firms that fraud occurs through the postponing of claims to the end of the policy year, possibly by filing on single claim for several events. It highlights the role of car dealer owned insurance agents in the collusive fraud mechanism. |
| Keywords: | Insurance, Fraud, Audit, Insurance distribution |
| Date: | 2016–10–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01385502&r=tre |
| By: | Elena Krasnokutskaya (Johns Hopkins University); Przemyslaw Jeziorski (UC Berkeley) |
| Abstract: | We use the data on multiple years of contract choices and claims by customers of a major Portuguese car insurance company to investigate a possibility that agent’s risk is modifiable through costly (unobserved) effort. Using a model of contract choice and endogenous risk production we demonstrate the economic importance of moral hazard, measure the relative importance of agents’ private information on cost of reducing risk and risk aversion, and evaluate the relative effectiveness of dynamic versus static contract features in incentivizing effort and inducing sorting on unobserved risk. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:1514&r=tre |