| Abstract: |
Change is happening at an ever faster rate today, driven partly by
technological changes leading to changes in all other areas of our lives.
Today’s global trends, uncertainties, and surprises have the potential to
significantly change the way the world works tomorrow. Shaping the world we
want to live in means being more aware of the future and seeking better
approaches. In such increasingly uncertain environment, planning uncertainties
force policy and decision makers to foster future-oriented technology analyses
(FTA) by using foresight methodologies. FTA can help us react on the likely
directions of technologies, manage the risks involved and shape technological
trajectories in order to improve the long term benefits to society. Foresight
methodologies seek to gather data and make sense of it so that people can
think in different and new ways about the future. That data might be collected
from humans or from the analysis of documents and artefacts, or both. The data
might be analysed using qualitative or quantitative techniques, or both. To be
used in strategy processes, however, data needs to be analysed, interpreted
and used in ways that make sense to the organisation. There is no single set
of methods used in all foresight activities. The methods used need to reflect
the resources available and the objectives of the exercise. The choice of
methods is critical, though it often appears to be based upon what is
fashionable or which practitioners have experience in. The methods may be
organised and interrelated in different ways. In other terms, the conduct of
foresight analyses needs to be tailored to the type. The first thing to do is
to choose the right methods which are most appropriate to the analysis and
technology characteristics. One of the substantial advances has been a move
away from a tool or method driven approach to one which relies on the
selection of tools in accord with their appropriateness for the particular
issue being examined, their relative strengths and limitations. Thus, the
experience of observing so many developing nations attempting to conduct a
Japanese style Delphi survey, with an extremely limited number of ‘experts’
and doubtful relevance of estimated technology realisation times to their
economy, indicates the need to develop foresight appropriate to local
conditions. Their use and contribution will be determined primarily by the
values, structures and cultures of the organisations applying them. This paper
will try to discuss the importance of future oriented technology analysis, in
particularly technology foresight, and the question of how to select the best
methodology among the existing ones. Although this paper intends to lay a
framework and cover the tools used in technology futures analysis, in
particularly emerging air transportation technologies, a full understanding of
each of these tools is out of this paper. The conduct of analysis needs to be
tailored to the type. The first thing to do is to choose the right tools which
are most appropriate to the analysis and the technology characteristics. Thus,
we have to set the criteria and figure out key aspects and factors for
designing our research. In our case, the key aspects and factors are: it is a
long term vision for 10-15 years later; an emerging air transportation mode; a
socio- technological system of systems in transportation area which is
composed of resources and stakeholders network, drivers and disruptors; and
also normative, both qualitative and quantitative, national and global. The
probably research tools that can be used are; agent based modelling, cost
benefit analysis, scenarios, impact analysis, case study (Visioning),
subjective judgement, roadmap, interviews, benefit visualization tool,
literature reviews, and attending conferences. |