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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Virginie Lurkin; Laurie A. Garrow; Matthew J. Higgins; Jeffrey P. Newman; Michael Schyns |
| Abstract: | Network planning models, which forecast the profitability of airline schedules, support many critical decisions, including equipment purchase decisions. Network planning models include an itinerary choice model that is used to allocate air total demand in a city pair to different itineraries. Multinomial logit (MNL) models are commonly used in practice and capture how individuals make trade-offs among different itinerary attributes; however, none that we are aware of account for price endogeneity. This study formulates an itinerary choice model that is consistent with those used by industry and corrects for price endogeneity using a control function that uses several types of instrumental variables. We estimate our model using a database of more than 3 million tickets provided by the Airlines Reporting Corporation. Results based on Continental U.S. markets for May 2013 departures show that models that fail to account for price endogeneity overestimate customers’ value of time and result in biased price estimates and incorrect pricing recommendations. The size and comprehensiveness of our database allows us to estimate highly refined departure time of day preference curves that account for distance, direction of travel, number of time zones traversed, departure day of week and itinerary type (outbound, inbound or one-way). These time of day preference curves can be used by airlines, researchers, and government organizations in the evaluation of different policies such as congestion pricing. |
| JEL: | L11 L9 L93 M2 |
| Date: | 2016–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22730&r=tre |
| By: | Marc Gaudry (AJD - Agora Jules Dupuit - Université de Montréal - Département de sciences économiques); Emile Quinet (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)) |
| Abstract: | We explore how the Trans-Log (TL) can be nested in Box-Cox transformed terms and show that a particular specification previously defined, but not fully tested, within the European CATRIN consortium (Gaudry & Quinet, 2010), the Unrestricted Generalized Box-Cox (U-GBC), constitutes a proper incarnation of the Generalized Flexible Quadratic class (Blackorby et al. (1977) and nests a number of more or less known intermediate Box-Cox-inspired partial generalizations of the TL, as well as the target TL itself. After a brief rail cost litterature review, our detailed references to such intermediate model specifications making partial use of Box-Cox transformations are focused on examples developed since 2002 using cross-sectional data, shown to differ profoundly from their ancestor aggregate time-series firm-wide explanations of total or of current maintenance rail cost published before 2002. Notably, the TL, devoid of prices, has since 2002 become a rail engineering degradation cost model under an unchanged econometric terminological form garb on which we dwell. We estimate three main rail maintenance cost model specifications strictly nesting the TL from real 1999 France-wide segment network data and compare their improved log likelihood values under different engineering hypotheses concerning physical interactions among four rail Traffic types and four track Quality characteristics. We find the Trans-Log to be an inadequate model of railway damage because physical interactions among track Quality indicators and train Traffic types are not of log-log form but of other forms better handled by common flexible Box-Cox Transformations, twelve of which are estimated in our most general U-GBC specification, all but one actually differing from the logarithmic case. And, of course, not all physical interactions turn out to matter in the explanation of degradation cost: track Quality-Quality interactions, for instance, are of nugatory importance. |
| Keywords: | Trans-Log model,Box-Cox transformations,Generalized Flexible Quadratic model,Unrestricted Generalized Box-Cox model,railway track current maintenance cost,railway track degradation engineering models,CATRIN European project,France |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01261980&r=tre |
| By: | Lutz Sager |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the causal effect of increased ambient air pollution on the frequency of road traffic accidents in the United Kingdom between 2009 and 2014. An instrumental variable approach is applied, exploiting atmospheric temperature inversions as a source of plausibly exogenous variation in daily air pollution levels. The paper estimates the local average treatment effect for a geographic grid cell (1° X 1º) as an increase of 0:3 accidents per day for each additional 1μg=m³ in the daily concentration of NO2. The effect is equivalent to an increase of 2% relative to the average number of daily accidents. The results appear robust to multiple sources of potential confounding, measurement error and co-emission bias. |
| Date: | 2016–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp251&r=tre |
| By: | Roel Verbelen; Katrien Antonio; Gerda Claeskens |
| Abstract: | A data set from a Belgian telematics product aimed at young drivers is used to identify how car insurance premiums can be designed based on the telematics data collected by a black box installed in the vehicle. In traditional pricing models for car insurance, the premium depends on self-reported rating variables (e.g. age, postal code) which capture characteristics of the policy(holder) and the insured vehicle and are often only indirectly related to the accident risk. Using telematics technology enables tailor-made car insurance pricing based on the driving behavior of the policyholder. We develop a statistical modeling approach using generalized additive models and compositional predictors to quantify and interpret the effect of telematics variables on the expected claim frequency. We find that such variables increase the predictive power and render the use of gender as a discriminating rating variable redundant. |
| Keywords: | Pay-as-you-drive insurance, Usage-based insurance, Risk classification, Generalized additive models, Compositional predictors, Structural zeros |
| Date: | 2016–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:afiper:552745&r=tre |
| By: | Sinha, Anushree.; Prabhakar, Avantika.; Jaiswal, Rajesh. |
| Abstract: | The objective of this study is to understand the role of key infrastructure sectors such as roads, buildings and canal irrigation for employment in two Indian states, Gujarat and West Bengal. |
| Keywords: | input output analysis, employment creation, road construction, construction, canal, irrigation, infrastructure, regional level, national level, India, analyse entrée-sortie, création d'emploi, construction de routes, construction, canal, irrigation, infrastructure, niveau régional, niveau national, Inde, análisis de insumo producto, creación de empleos, construcción vial, construcción, canal, riego, infraestructura, nivel regional, nivel nacional, India |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:994872193402676&r=tre |
| By: | Jean Patrick Mfoulou Olugu (University of Yaoundé [Cameroun]) |
| Abstract: | La mobilité urbaine à Yaoundé comme dans la majorité des agglomérations à forte croissance urbaine en Afrique est dominée par des véhicules de petite capacité comme les taxis collectifs et moto-taxis. Ce phénomène a comme conséquence une augmentation des externalités négatives comme la congestion, les accidents, la pollution, et des coûts monétaires élevés à supporter par les usagers des transports. L'objectif de ce policybrief est d'informer les communautés urbaines en Afrique ou à Yaoundénotamment, que pour résoudre ce dysfonctionnement,il est urgent de redéfinir une nouvelle politique d'occupation du sol à Yaoundé et d'augmenter l'offrequantitative et qualitative en transport publique collectifde massepourréduire la part modale du taxi enle valorisant dans certains types de déplacements comme les dépôts. |
| Keywords: | Croissance urbaine, mobilité,transport,Yaoundé |
| Date: | 2016–05–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01315178&r=tre |
| By: | Kremslehner, Daniela; Muermann, Alexander |
| Abstract: | Based on a unique data set of driving behavior we find direct evidence that private information has significant effects on contract choice and risk in automobile insurance. The number of car rides and the relative distance driven on weekends are significant risk factors. While the number of car rides and average speeding are negatively related to the level of liability coverage, the number of car rides and the relative distance driven at night are positively related to the level of first-party coverage. These results indicate multiple and counteracting effects of private information based on risk preferences and driving behavior. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfswop:543&r=tre |
| By: | Chakrabarti, Rajashri (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Pattison, Nathaniel (University of Virginia) |
| Abstract: | Auto lenders were perhaps the biggest winners of the 2005 Bankruptcy Reform. Cars depreciate quickly, so borrowers often owe more than their car is worth. Prior to the Reform, these borrowers could reduce the principal on their auto loan to the market value of the car through a “cramdown” in Chapter 13 bankruptcy. The Reform prohibited cramdowns during the first two and a half years of an auto loan. This paper is the first to estimate the causal effect of this anticramdown provision on the price and quantity of auto credit. The authors use a novel empirical strategy that relies on the fact that eliminating cramdowns affected only one of the two types of consumer bankruptcy: Chapter 13. They exploit persistent historical variation in states’ usage of Chapter 13 generated by differences in local legal culture. Using difference-in-differences regressions, their empirical strategy compares pre-Reform and post-Reform auto loans across states with persistent historical differences in the share of bankruptcies filed under Chapter 13. They find that eliminating cramdowns decreased interest rates on auto loans in the average state by 15 basis points, with a larger decline in states where Chapter 13 is more common. The decline in interest rates occurs in the exact month that the Reform went into effect, and the authors rule out other aspects of the Reform as possible causes. Next, the authors estimate the effect on the quantity of auto credit. Using quarterly data from the FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel based on Equifax credit reports, they examine the effect of eliminating cramdowns on the number and size of new auto loans. The estimates show a small, negative, and insignificant impact on the number of new auto loans. The authors do find some evidence, however, that loan sizes increased among subprime borrowers. |
| Keywords: | bankruptcy; cramdown; auto loans; consumer credit; BAPCPA |
| JEL: | D12 G21 K35 |
| Date: | 2016–10–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:797&r=tre |
| By: | François Bourguignon (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC), PSE - Paris School of Economics); Pierre-Emmanuel Darpeix (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between air traffic and economic growth in various developing regions and compares it with an “enduring industry fact” of an elasticity around 2 for the developed world. The analysis is conducted from two distinct databases, both with regional aggregates and with country-level ECM estimations. We conclude that there does not seem to be substantial differences in elasticities across the various regions and we show that the introduction of autonomous country-specific time trends leads to a substantial reduction of elasticity estimates. |
| Keywords: | Air transportation,panel cointegration,error correction model,GDP-elasticities,development, F23, F43, F63, L93 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01305412&r=tre |
| By: | Ernst, Christoph.; Miller, Steve.; Van Imschoot, Marc. |
| Abstract: | This review provides an overview of different methodologies and approaches currently being used to count or to estimate job creation in the framework of investments. |
| Keywords: | employment creation, input output analysis, impact evaluation, infrastructure, ILO Programme, role of ILO, data collecting, methodology, création d'emploi, analyse entrée-sortie, évaluation de l'impact, infrastructure, programme de l'OIT, rôle de l'OIT, collecte des données, méthodologie, creación de empleos, análisis de insumo producto, evaluación de impacto, infraestructura, programa de la OIT, papel de la OIT, recopilación de datos, metodología |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:994889783402676&r=tre |
| By: | Jacint Balaguer (Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Jordi Ripollés (Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain) |
| Abstract: | Empirical studies on vertical price transmission in retail fuel markets commonly use mean group data of petrol stations. In this paper a simulation approach is employed to illustrate that, in this case, the persistence of price responses tends to be overestimated. To explore the real extent of the problem, we apply the mean group (MG) and the mean group with common correlated effects (MG-CCE) estimators to individual data from petrol stations. When heterogeneity in the price-setting dynamics is captured by MG and MG-CCE estimators, persistence of retail price responses becomes considerably lower than the typical OLS estimations from mean group data would suggest. |
| Keywords: | Fuel price responses, Cross-sectional aggregation, Dynamic persistence, Overestimation |
| JEL: | C51 C23 L71 Q41 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2016/16&r=tre |