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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Gordeev, Dmitriy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Idrisov, Georgiy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Idrisova, Vittoria (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Kaukin, Andrei (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | To date, one of the most used tools for the analysis of international trade is a gravity model of trade. A significant simplification of the model is the replacement cost of trade between the two countries on the distance between them, acting as a proxy variable. Thus, under the costs of foreign trade refers to not only transportation costs, but also the cost of doing this kind of activity as a whole. Administrative, informational, tax, adjustment costs, etc. However, in the academic literature is virtually no research on the analysis of trade flows, taking into account the calculated transportation costs on specific routes. Conducting such a study will fill a gap in the theory of gravitational models of trade, as well as provide an opportunity for more detailed empirical analysis of trade flows on selected routes. The aim is a theoretical modification empirical calibration of the spatial gravity model of trade based on the actual transport cost value of goods on certain routes, recommendations on updating the predictive model of Russia's foreign trade, the development of economic and trade policies, including those aimed at reducing the negative effects of external sanctions and downturn in the economy. To achieve this objective the work objectives: the analysis and systematization of the existing theoretical and empirical approaches to the analysis of foreign trade of goods transportation costs; analysis and systematization of the existing theoretical and empirical approaches to the analysis of the volume and routing trade flows, taking into account the transportation costs for the individual supply chains; modification of the spatial gravity model of trade of Russia to work with detailed trade flows and the cost of transportation of goods in the existing supply chain; empirical assessment of the modified model to the data of the Russian foreign trade in the years 2011-2014, to determine the degree by the amount of the cost of the transport component of the impact of trade flows and routing varying degrees of aggregation. |
| Keywords: | spatial distribution, foreign trade, spatial gravity model of trade, Russia |
| Date: | 2016–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:764&r=tre |
| By: | Yan, Shiyu (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Eskeland, Gunnar S. (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Fiscal policies are used to improve vehicle fuel efficiency and reduce CO2 emissions in the transport sector. Years of forceful reform in Norway may be seen as informative. From 2007, Norway has linked its new vehicle registration tax to CO2 intensities, later adapting it into a feebate form. We exploit a detailed dataset of new vehicle registrations, using fixed effects and instrumental variables in our econometric analysis. We find that the CO2 differentiated registration tax contributes significantly to shifting purchases towards low-emitting cars. A 1000NOK tax increase (about 120USD) is associated with a reduction of 1.13% - 1.58% in vehicle registrations, and the responsiveness in car choice to fuel costs is of the same magnitude. The estimated effect of the tax explains the majority (79%) of the reduction in average CO2 intensity in the new car fleet 2006 through 2011. A point estimate of the elasticity of the CO2 intensity with respect to the CO2 price is minus 0.06, whereas the elasticity with respect to (resulting) car prices is about minus 0.5. An intuitive model with ‘all’ car types losing demand to low-emitting types applies fairly well: low-emitting segments gain in share and do not get CO2 leaner, while high-emitting segments lose in share and become CO2 leaner. Moves between nine segments and within those segments are equally important. |
| Keywords: | CO2 intensity; new vehicle; vehicle registration tax; fuel cost; Pigovian taxation; green tax reform; greenhouse gas emission reductions |
| JEL: | C12 H23 Q00 Q50 |
| Date: | 2016–08–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2016_014&r=tre |
| By: | GIL, Ricard; KIM, Myongjim; ZANARONE, Giorgio |
| Abstract: | In the airline industry, ex-post adaptation of flight schedules is necessary in the presence of bad weather conditions. When major carriers contract with independent regionals, conflicts over these adaptation decisions typically arise. Moreover, the celerity of needed adjustments requires that adaptation be informal, and hence enforced relationally. In this paper, we theoretically analyze, and empirically test for, the importance of relational adaptation in the airline industry. Our model shows that for relational contracts to be selfenforcing, the long-term value of the relationship between a major and a regional airline must be at least as large as the regional's cost of adapting flight schedules across joint routes. Thus, when facing a shock that forces it to terminate some routes, the major is more likely to preserve routes outsourced to regional airlines that have higher adaptation costs, as the value of the major's relationship with those regionals is larger. We analyze the evolution of U.S. airline networks around the 2008 financial crisis, and we find that consistent with our theoretical predictions, regional routes belonging to networks with worse average weather, and hence higher adaptation costs, were more likely to survive after the shock. |
| Keywords: | Relational contracting, adaptation, natural experiment, airlines, outsourcing |
| JEL: | L14 L22 L24 L93 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-32&r=tre |
| By: | Georg von Graevenitz; Christian Helmers; Valentine Millot; Oliver Turnbull |
| Abstract: | We use online search data to predict car sales in the German and UK automobile industries. Search data subsume several distinct search motives, which are not separately observable. We develop a model linking search motives to observable search data and sales. The model shows that predictions of sales relying on observable search data as a proxy for prepurchase search will be biased. We show how to remove the biases and estimate the effect of pre-purchase search on sales. To assist identification of this effect, we use the introduction of scrappage subsidies for cars in 2008/2009 as a quasi-natural experiment. We also show that online search data are (i) highly persistent over time, (ii) potentially subject to permanent shocks, and (iii) correlated across products, but to different extent. We address these challenges to estimation and inference by using recent econometric methods for large N, large T panels. |
| Keywords: | Online search, Google Trends, Serial correlation, Non-stationarity, Common Correlated Effects, Large Panels |
| JEL: | D |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgs:wpaper:71&r=tre |
| By: | Frédéric Dobruszkes; Moshe Givoni; Catherine Dehon |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/235543&r=tre |
| By: | Cameron K. Murray (School of Economics, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, Australia) |
| Abstract: | Land value gains attributable to the light rail system on the Gold Coast, Australia, are estimated. Using the full history of statutory land valuations of Gold Coast properties, a model of location-specifi c gains is estimated, allowing for price e ffects at multiple distances from stations across time. Total value gains to nearby landowners are $300 million, or 25% of the capital cost of the project, This estimate is net of automatic property tax increases of $4.8million in 2015-16. Substantial additional scope to fund transport investment from value gains is apparent. |
| Keywords: | Land value, betterment, light rail |
| Date: | 2016–08–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qld:uq2004:566&r=tre |
| By: | Atif Ansar; Bent Flyvbjerg; Alexander Budzier; Daniel Lunn |
| Abstract: | The prevalent view in the economics literature is that a high level of infrastructure investment is a precursor to economic growth. China is especially held up as a model to emulate. Based on the largest dataset of its kind, this paper punctures the twin myths that, first, infrastructure creates economic value, and, second, China has a distinct advantage in its delivery. Far from being an engine of economic growth, the typical infrastructure investment fails to deliver a positive risk adjusted return. Moreover, China's track record in delivering infrastructure is no better than that of rich democracies. Where investments are debt-financed, overinvesting in unproductive projects results in the buildup of debt, monetary expansion, instability in financial markets, and economic fragility, exactly as we see in China today. We conclude that poorly managed infrastructure investments are a main explanation of surfacing economic and financial problems in China. We predict that, unless China shifts to a lower level of higher-quality infrastructure investments, the country is headed for an infrastructure-led national financial and economic crisis, which is likely also to be a crisis for the international economy. China's infrastructure investment model is not one to follow for other countries but one to avoid. |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1609.00415&r=tre |