nep-tre New Economics Papers
on Transport Economics
Issue of 2016‒06‒18
seventeen papers chosen by
Erik Teodoor Verhoef
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

  1. Low-Carbon Futures for Shenzhen’s Urban Passenger Transport System By Shengyuan Zhang; Jimin Zhao
  2. Capacity assessment of railway infrastructure: Tools, methodologies and policy relevance in the EU context By Francesco Rotoli; Elena Navajas Cawood; Antonio Soria
  3. Scandinavian toll cordons’ effects: adaptations, equity and attitudes By Franklin, Joel; Eliasson , Jonas; Börjesson, Maria; Brundell-Freij, Karin; Johansson, Fredrik; Jiang, Sida; Ramjerdi, Farideh; Skollerud, Kåre; Denstadli, Jon Martin; Uteng, Tanu Priya
  4. Drivers of Logistics Performance: A Case Study of Turkey By OECD
  5. Travel Behavior, Energy Use, and Carbon Emissions: Evidence from Shenzhen, China By Shengyuan Zhang; Jimin Zhao; Albert Park
  6. Urban Mobility System Upgrade: How shared self-driving cars could change city traffic By OECD
  7. International Experiences on Public Transport Provision in Rural Areas By OECD
  8. Establishing Mexico's Regulatory Agency for Rail Transport: Peer Review of Regulatory Capacity By OECD
  9. Capacity to Grow: Transport Infrastructure Needs for Future Trade Growth By OECD
  10. App-Based Ride and Taxi Services: Principles for Regulation By OECD
  11. How do road infrastructure investments affect the regional economy? Evidence from Spain By Anna Matas Prat; Adriana Karina Ruíz Marín; Josep Lluís Raymond Bara
  12. Forecasting Airport Demand: Review of UK Airports Commission Forecasts and Scenarios By OECD
  13. Competition and the welfare gains from transportation infrastructure: Evidence from the Golden Quadrilateral of India By Jose Asturias; Manuel García-Santana; Roberto Ramos
  14. Impacts of Expanding Airport Capacity on Competition and Connectivity: The case of Gatwick and Heathrow By OECD
  15. Manage Flight Demand or Build Airport Capacity? By Ryerson, Megan S; Woodburn, Amber
  16. Expanding Airport Capacity: Competition, Connectivity and Welfare: Discussion of options for Gatwick and Heathrow By OECD
  17. Why intelligent travel system is a good organizing trips tool for Polish tourists? By Monika Jurkiewicz

  1. By: Shengyuan Zhang (Division of Social Science, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Jimin Zhao (Division of Social Science, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Institute for Emerging Market Studies, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)
    Abstract: China has established ambitious CO2 emission reduction targets, and sustainable urban passenger transport is a key to reaching them. Shenzhen, one of China’s leading cities, has the potential to be a model for achieving low-carbon development. Using an Activity Structure–Intensity–Fuel (ASIF) framework and a human-based approach that incorporates individual transport behavior using data from a travel diary survey in Shenzhen in 2014, we model different scenarios for future urban passenger transport energy consumption and CO2 emissions from 2014 to 2050. We find that if Shenzhen successfully constructs urban structures with greater density around the public transportation network, and finds effective ways to restrict vehicle ownership and use (either through mandatory schemes or pricing) while making substantial investments in the walking and cycling environment, it is possible for total urban passenger transport emissions to peak at 4.3 MtCO2 in 2025, and individual emissions would fall by over 65% compared to its 2014 level, reaching 118 kgCO2/person by 2050.
    Keywords: ASIF, carbon emissions, energy consumption, urban transportation, scenario analysis, transportation policy
    Date: 2016–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hku:wpaper:201633&r=tre
  2. By: Francesco Rotoli (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Elena Navajas Cawood (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Antonio Soria (European Commission – JRC - IPTS)
    Abstract: The transport sector is increasingly faced with several issues related to the rising of traffic demand such as congestion, energy consumption, noise, pollution, safety, etc.. Due to its low external and environmental costs, railway can be considered (together with inland waterways and short-sea-shipping) as a key factor for the sustainable development of a more competitive and resource-efficient transport system (European Commission, White Paper 2011). In order to reinforce the role of rail in European transport, there is a strong need of addressing the efficiency of the system and customers' satisfaction through targeted actions, i.e. rising reliability and quality of service. This becomes particularly pressing as many parts of the existing railway infrastructures are reaching their maximum capacity thus shrinking their capability to provide users and customers a higher or even adequate level of service. Taking also into account that transport demand forecasts for 2030 clearly show a marked increase of rail activity across the whole Europe, we aim to address the issue of rail congestion in the context of relevant policy questions: Is the actual rail Infrastructure really able to absorb forecasted traffic, without significant impacts on punctuality of the system? Would the already planned interventions on the European railway infrastructure guarantee an adequate available capacity and consequently adequate reliability and level of service? To which extent would the coveted competition in an open railway market be influenced by capacity scarcity, mainly during peak hours or along more profitable corridors? An accurate estimation of capacity of the rail network can help answer these questions, leading policy makers to better decisions and helping to minimize costs for users. In this context this report explores the issue of capacity scarcity and sets this issue in the context of other relevant policy issues (track access charges, cost/benefit and accessibility measures, maintenance programmes, freight services’ reliability, external, marginal congestion or scarcity cost for rail, impacts of climate changes, etc.), providing a methodological review of capacity and punctuality assessment procedures. To better explore the real applicability and the time and/or data constraints of each methodology, the study reports some practical applications to the European railway network. Finally in the last section the report discusses the topic from a modelling perspective, as the quantitative estimation of railway capacity constraints is a key issue in order to provide better support to transport policies at EU level.
    Keywords: railway, transport policy, capacity constraints, punctuality, accessibility, synthetic and analytic methods, modelling
    Date: 2016–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc100509&r=tre
  3. By: Franklin, Joel (KTH); Eliasson , Jonas (KTH); Börjesson, Maria (KTH); Brundell-Freij, Karin (WSP); Johansson, Fredrik (WSP); Jiang, Sida (WSP); Ramjerdi, Farideh (Transportøkonomisk institutt, TØI); Skollerud, Kåre (Transportøkonomisk institutt, TØI); Denstadli, Jon Martin (Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NTNU); Uteng, Tanu Priya (Transportøkonomisk institutt, TØI)
    Abstract: Roadway tolls are seeing increasing use in metropolitan areas worldwide, motivated first by increasing reliance on user fees to finance maintenance and expansion of transport infrastructure, and second by a strategy of reducing congestion externalities by discouraging car use in peak periods. In Scandinavia in particular, roadway tolls have been tested and permanently implemented in more cities than in any other region around the world. Despite the large body of evidence directly after these implementations, there remain several issues related to the effects of roadway tolls that are unexplored, not only in the Scandinavian cases but also abroad. This report documents the results of a research project intended to help fill these gaps. Our main contributions to the literature are in three broad areas: 1) travel adaptations patterns and their underlying explanations; 2) effects of tolling on location patterns and on telecommuting; and 3) explanations for the varying levels of acceptability of tolling schemes across time and in different locations.
    Keywords: Tolls; Road pricing; Equity; Adaptation; Acceptance; Attitudes
    JEL: D63 R41 R48
    Date: 2016–06–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2016_014&r=tre
  4. By: OECD
    Abstract: Good logistics performance is an essential component of stimulating economic development. This report explores the drivers of, and barriers to, logistics performance through a case study of Turkey’s trade and transport sector. Firstly, it explains the importance of logistics performance. Next, it reviews the Logistics Performance Index (LPI) used to assess trade and transportation facilitation friendliness of countries. It then discusses Turkey’s performance against each dimension of the LPI, highlighting the country’s challenges and achievements. Lastly, the report uses this understanding to propose and catagorise a series of general policy actions available for improving logistics performance.
    Date: 2015–04–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:9-en&r=tre
  5. By: Shengyuan Zhang (Division of Social Science, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Jimin Zhao (Division of Social Science, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Institute for Emerging Market Studies, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Albert Park (Division of Social Science, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Department of Economics, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Institute for Emerging Market Studies, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)
    Abstract: In many developing and emerging economies, rapid income growth and changing demographics is leading to heightened demand for energy-intensive urban transportation. This study provides a comprehensive empirical framework for analyzing how income, age, and education influence individual energy use and carbon emissions through multiple dimensions of travel behavior, including number of trips, trip distance, transportation mode choice, vehicle ownership, and fuel economy of cars. Analyzing travel diary survey data collected by the authors in Shenzhen in 2014, we find that energy consumption and carbon emissions increase almost proportionally to income, and that older age and more education increase energy use and carbon emissions substantially, with the relative importance of different channels varying by factor.
    Keywords: ASIF, carbon emissions, energy consumption, urban transportation, scenario analysis, transportation policy
    Date: 2016–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hku:wpaper:201635&r=tre
  6. By: OECD
    Abstract: This report examines the changes that might result from the large-scale uptake of a shared and self-driving fleet of vehicles in a mid-sized European city. The study explores two different self-driving vehicle concepts, for which we have coined the terms “TaxiBot” and “AutoVot”. TaxiBots are self-driving cars that can be shared simultaneously by several passengers. AutoVots pick-up and drop-off single passengers sequentially.
    Date: 2015–03–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:6-en&r=tre
  7. By: OECD
    Abstract: Demand-responsive transport is seen as one of the key options to meet public transport challenges in rural areas. Demand-responsive transport is considered particularly suitable for rural areas because of its flexibility, and ability to adapt to local needs. While on cost per trip basis it may be more expensive than ‘conventional’ public transport, experiences indicate a willingness for both car users and existing bus users to use these services at a higher fare than existing bus fares. However, demand-responsive services should be part of a broader, multimodal package of solutions, supplementing regular public transport services.
    Date: 2015–07–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:14-en&r=tre
  8. By: OECD
    Abstract: Mexico’s highly efficient freight railways are operated by privately owned concessions. The system adopted for the concessions by the 1995 Railway Law provides exclusive rights to manage vertically integrated track and train companies over specified sections of the network and was designed to create competition between the companies in key markets. Competition is provided for in several ways; through parallel tracks, through alternate routes and through rights to use each other’s tracks on specific sections of the network. In this report, preparations for the establishment of the new rail regulatory agency are reviewed and compared to comparable regulatory arrangements in other OECD countries to ensure effective implementation of the new institutional arrangements.
    Date: 2016–02–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:17-en&r=tre
  9. By: OECD
    Abstract: This report examines the consequences of increased global trade on the world’s transport infrastructure. More complex international freight flows as a result of diversified global trade patterns will change capacity requirements and increasingly reshape global transport networks over the coming decades. Policy makers need to understand now how these forces are likely to play out in order to ensure adequate and timely investment into transport infrastructure that will continue to provide the backbone of global trade and economic development.
    Date: 2016–05–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:19-en&r=tre
  10. By: OECD
    Abstract: For-hire passenger transport services are an essential component of well-functioning metropolitan areas. But the markets for taxis and other for-hire vehicles have historically been subject to imperfections that regulators have tried to correct or at least attenuate. The current regulatory frameworks surrounding for hire transport reflects this history. But the arrival of innovative app-based ride services, generically referred to as Commercial Transport Apps (CTAs), in this report, challenges established rules. The growing popularity of these services has caught authorities off-guard, as CTAs typically do not fall under established regulatory structures. Moreover, the uptake of similar technologies amongst traditional for-hire operators blurs the line between existing regulatory categories, and in some cases obviates it.
    Date: 2016–05–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:22-en&r=tre
  11. By: Anna Matas Prat (Departament d'Economia Aplicada, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona); Adriana Karina Ruíz Marín (Departament d'Economia Aplicada, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona); Josep Lluís Raymond Bara (Departament d'Economia i Història Econòmica, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona)
    Abstract: This paper analyses the relationship between road infrastructure improvements and investment in capital assets. Using aggregate data at a provincial level for 1977-2008, an equation for machinery and equipment investment is estimated applying Panel Corrected Standard Errors. The results indicate that the long-term elasticities of investment in relation to market potential, GDP and average years of schooling are 0.90, 0.75 and 0.80, respectively. Additionally, the long run impact of a road infrastructure investment policy is assessed. We find that the elasticities of investment in machinery and equipment, capital stock and GDP in relation to travel time are 1.18, 0.33 and 0.11, respectively.
    Keywords: infraestructure, Regional investment, Market potential, Travel time
    JEL: R4 R11
    Date: 2016–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea1610&r=tre
  12. By: OECD
    Abstract: The Airports Commission requires an external view on whether its forecasts yield plausible results, taking into account the ways in which the future of the aviation market may develop, prompted by comments received during stakeholder consultations on the forecasts and scenarios developed. This report summarises a review of the forecasts prepared by the International Transport Forum together with independent experts. The report provide views on the appropriateness of the outputs produced, on the most robust central scenarios and on any scenario results that should be treated with particular caution. it also examines one aspect of the methodology used in developing the baseline forecast, the module allocating traffic between London’s airports.
    Date: 2015–06–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:13-en&r=tre
  13. By: Jose Asturias; Manuel García-Santana; Roberto Ramos
    Abstract: A significant amount of resources is spent every year on the improvement of transportation infrastructure in developing countries. In this paper, we investigate the effects of one such large project, the Golden Quadrilateral in India, on the income and allocative efficiency of the economy. We do so using a quantitative model of internal trade with variable markups. We find real income gains of 2.71% in the aggregate and that allocative efficiency accounts for 8% of these gains. The importance of allocative efficiency varies greatly across states, and can account for up to 19% of the overall gains. Thus, allocative efficiency can play an important role in determining both the size and distribution of gains from new infrastructure.
    Date: 2016–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1526&r=tre
  14. By: OECD
    Abstract: This report assesses quantitatively the competition, scarcity and connectivity impacts of different airline responses to expanding runway capacity at Gatwick or Heathrow.
    Date: 2014–12–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:5-en&r=tre
  15. By: Ryerson, Megan S; Woodburn, Amber
    Keywords: Architecture, Arts and Humanities, Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2016–04–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt8fh9j57f&r=tre
  16. By: OECD
    Abstract: This report expands the quantitative assessment of airline responses to expansion at Gatwick and Heathrow. For this assessment the same methodology was used as in the second study and again the results are been broken down into impacts on scarcity rents, competition and connectivity.
    Date: 2015–06–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:12-en&r=tre
  17. By: Monika Jurkiewicz (IET/CICS.NOVA, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Portugal)
    Abstract: With a growing influence of web applications and social networking sites on every aspect of people's lives travel industry has still not sufficient support from Internet Technology. Increasing travel possibilities and a slow change of lifestyle among young people, they are more focused on entertainment and experiencing something new instead of only making money, that is a good sign for developing tools which might help with organizing spare time. Poland is a growing country. After many years of economic stagnation now there may be observed grow in standards of living and this phenomenon is not decreasing but quite opposite. Young people are more focused on spending their life in more joyful way than their parents did. One of the examples is a travelling.
    Keywords: Internet, tourism, Poland
    JEL: L83 O31 Q26
    Date: 2016–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieu:wpaper:69&r=tre

This nep-tre issue is ©2016 by Erik Teodoor Verhoef. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at http://nep.repec.org. For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <director@nep.repec.org>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.