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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Daganzo, Carlos; Anderson, Paul |
| Abstract: | Transfers are a major source of travel time variability for transit passengers. Coordinating transfers between transit routes in real time can reduce passenger waiting times and travel time variability, but these benefits need to be contrasted with the delays to on-board and downstream passengers, as well as the potential for bus bunching created by holding buses for transfers. We developed a dynamic holding strategy for transfer coordination based on control theory. We then obtained the optimal control strategy, where maximum holding time is a function of real-time estimates of bus arrivals and passengers and the uncertainty in these estimates. Total travel time (waiting plus in-vehicle) with the optimal control is found to be globally less than or equal to total travel time without control when uncertainty is bounded. The time savings from transfer coordination increase with the ratio of transferring to through passengers but diminish as uncertainty in the real-time estimates of bus arrivals increases. Field observations at a multimodal transfer point in Oakland show that the proposed control strategy could reduce net transfer delay by 30-39% in a real-world scenario. The data collected also confirm that the upper bound on uncertainty in bus arrivals can be satisfied with existing bus location technology. We conclude with a discussion of complementary measures, such as the provision of real-time information at transfer points and conditional signal priority, which could allow coordination to be applied in more cases. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Public transportation, interlining, transfers, coordination |
| Date: | 2016–05–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt25h4r974&r=tre |
| By: | de Vries, H.; Duijzer, E. |
| Abstract: | To stimulate and facilitate the use of alternative-fuel vehicles, it is crucial to have a network of refueling or recharging stations in place that guarantees that vehicles can reach (most of) their destinations without running out of fuel. Because initial investments in these stations are restricted, it is important to choose their locations deliberately. A fast growing stream of literature therefore analyzes the problem of locating refueling or recharging stations. The models proposed in these studies assume that the driving range is fixed, although reality shows that the driving range is highly stochastic. These models thereby misrepresent the actual coverage a network of refueling stations provides to drivers. This paper introduces two problems that do take the stochastic nature of the driving range into account. We first introduce the Expected Flow Refueling Location Problem, which is to maximize the expected number of drivers who can complete their trip without running out of fuel. The Chance Constrained Flow Refueling Location Problem is to maximize the number of drivers for which the probability of running out of fuel is below a certain threshold. We prove the problems to be strongly NP-hard, propose novel mixed-integer programming formulations for these problems, and show how these models can be extended to the case that the driving range varies during a trip. Furthermore, we extensively analyze and compare our models using randomly generated problem instances and a real life case study about the Florida state highway network. Our results show that taking the stochastic nature of the driving range into account can substantially improve the network coverage, that optimal solutions are highly robust with respect to data impreciseness, and that the potential gains of stochastic models heavily depend on the driving range distribution. Based on the results, we discuss policy implications. |
| Keywords: | facility location, stochastic models, recourse model, chance constraint, flow refueling, electric vehicle |
| Date: | 2016–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ems:eureir:80105&r=tre |
| By: | Chatman , Daniel; Xu, Ruoying; Park , Janice; Le, Kim |
| Abstract: | Public transit investments are a large and growing share of all transportation investments in the state of California, and such critical investments should be evaluated partly on their economic benefits. Taking such benefits into account could alter investment, service, and service restructuring decisions taken by transit agencies in the state. The relationship of public transportation to economic productivity, and spatial patterns of industrial location, is understudied. This project investigated how changes in rail transit service in California metropolitan areas (Los Angeles, the San Francisco Bay Area, and San Diego) are associated with firm clustering by industry and with commercial property values. A mixed methods approach was used. One strand of the research involved first, describing location patterns by industry according to transit access, and second, quantitatively modeling the relationship between transit access and (a) employment densification by industry and (b) commercial property values, using instrumental variables techniques with dynamic panel modeling in order to better infer causal relationships. The second strand consisted of interviews and other qualitative research aimed at finding possible explanations for firm location and expansion, and firm productivity. The quantitative research found that rail development generally promotes employment agglomeration and increased land value, but the magnitude of such effects differs across regions. San Francisco County had the highest employment densification and land value associated with rail proximity, while the LA region also had a relatively strong relationship between rail access and both employment density and property value. Rail access in the southern part of the San Francisco Bay Area, where Silicon Valley is situated, had a small relationship with employment densification but a positive effect on land values. On the contrary, rail development in the San Diego region was positively associated with employment density, but negatively associated with land value appreciation. Our interviews were consistent with these quantitative findings, and suggested that the differences between regions are due to differences in historical land development and use patterns as well as urban land regulations. In the San Francisco Bay Area, developers and real estate brokers report that rail transit plays the greatest role in the City of San Francisco, with relatively weak importance in Silicon Valley due to higher parking provisions and employer-provided transportation amenities such as shuttles. In the Los Angeles metropolitan area, rail transit is most highly valued in the dense downtown Los Angeles area, and is perceived to be playing an increasingly important role across the region as in places where traffic congestion is high and increasing. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, public transportation, firm cluster, agglomeration, commercial property values, economic development |
| Date: | 2016–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt1z01h8ts&r=tre |
| By: | Batabyal, Amitrajeet |
| Abstract: | In this note, we analyze hitherto unstudied aspects of winter transport provision via trucks with chains on tires. Specifically, we first construct a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC) model of transport provision that focuses on the movements of a representative truck in a firm’s fleet of trucks. Second, we specify the limiting probabilities of our DTMC model of truck transport. Third, we derive the fraction of time that the representative truck is involved in accidents. Finally, we solve an optimization problem whose solution tells us when the fraction of time the representative truck spends in accidents, is maximal. |
| Keywords: | Accident, Tire Chain, Transport, Truck, Uncertainty |
| JEL: | D81 R41 |
| Date: | 2015–10–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71451&r=tre |
| By: | O'Brien, Daniel; Briggeman, Brian |
| Abstract: | The Kansas grain storage, handling and transportation industry has undergone considerable change in recent years in terms of physical storage and handling capacity, competitive organization of participants, and access to large scale rail transportation. Ongoing consolidation of local and regional cooperatives has occurred as have strategic investments in high-volume rail transportation facilities by both cooperatives and independent agribusinesses. While the structure of the Kansas grain industry has been in a period of dynamic change over the last decade, the reasons are varied and somewhat interdependent. Periods of severe drought in western Kansas, establishment of ethanol processing plants in different parts of the state, the ongoing competitive presence of the Kansas cattle feeding industry and recent growth in dairy industries, the construction of 100 railcar-plus shuttle train grain handling facilities in strategic locations in the state (to ensure competitive rail access by local / regional grain elevators), and other changes have all occurred on a large scale since years 2007-2008. |
| Keywords: | Grain industry, Kansas, Grain Elevators, Rail Transportation, Agribusiness, Industrial Organization, Marketing, |
| Date: | 2016–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235964&r=tre |
| By: | Asturias, Jose; García-Santana, Manuel; Ramos Magdaleno, Roberto |
| Abstract: | A significant amount of resources is spent every year on the improvement of transportation infrastructure in developing countries. In this paper, we investigate the effects of one such large project, the Golden Quadrilateral in India, on the income and allocative efficiency of the economy. We do so using a quantitative model of internal trade with variable markups. We find real income gains of 2.71% in the aggregate and that allocative efficiency accounts for 8% of these gains. The importance of allocative efficiency varies greatly across states, and can account for up to 19% of the overall gains. Thus, allocative efficiency can play an important role in determining both the size and distribution of gains from new infrastructure. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11283&r=tre |
| By: | Yagi, Michiyuki; Managi, Shunsuke |
| Abstract: | This study empirically examines the demographic determinants of car ownership in Japan between 1980 and 2009. Unique car cohort data, composed of the car age and 11 car types, at the prefectural level, is analyzed. The primary reason for examining the demographic determinants of car ownership in Japan is because Japan is projected to face radical demographic changes in the next few decades. These projected changes include depopulation and an aging population with diminishing household size. This study will be the first empirical study of the car cohort model with large countrywide observations in the recent literature. This study classifies the demographic determinants into five categories: (I) longitudinal factors, (II) economic factors, (III) natural factors, (IV) social factors, and (V) other transports. Although some tendencies vary among car types, this study finds the following tendencies of ordinary car ownership (compact four-wheel drive trucks and regular and compact passenger cars). Regarding the longitudinal factors, the long-run effect is much higher than average in the recent literature, whereas the semi elasticity of car age is approximately −7%. Regarding the economic factors, the elasticities of income and fuel price on car ownership tend to be less intense than in earlier studies. Regarding the natural factors of population increase, the elasticities of population and average household size on car ownership tend to be negative. This indicates that a decrease in population and household size in Japan will accelerate car ownership. In addition, the ratio of elderly people has various effects depending on car types. Regarding the social factors of population increase, car ownership tends to be encouraged by the concentration of population within prefecture, and increased and decreased for relatively new (aged 2-11) and old (aged 12+) cars, respectively, by the concentration of population across prefectures. The former is probably due to a composite effect in urban and rural areas, whereas the latter may be a quick update cycle due to an effect of urbanization. Regarding other transports, the degrees of train and bus use tend to be negatively associated with ordinary car ownership. However, these effects are considerably small and often insignificant as in the literature. |
| Keywords: | car cohort; demographic determinants; car ownership in Japan; car aggregated model |
| JEL: | L62 R10 R40 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71614&r=tre |
| By: | Dunn, Wendy E.; Vine, Daniel J. |
| Abstract: | Motor vehicle dealerships in the United States tend to hold inventories equivalent to around 65 days’ worth of sales, a relatively high level that has been nearly unchanged for 50 years. Despite playing a prominent role in the volatility of U.S. business cycles, very little is known about why the auto industry targets inventory stocks at such a high level. We use a panel of inventory and sales data from 41 vehicle brands over 30 years and the solutions to two well-known inventory planning problems to show that vehicle inventories appear to be related to (1) the size of dealership franchise networks, which tend to be large; (2) product variety, which tends to be high; and (3) the volatility of new vehicle sales, which also tends to be high. We show that differences across brands in these variables explain a good bit of the cross-section dispersion in brand inventory-sales ratios. Offsetting changes in these factors over time also help explain why the industry’s overall inventory-sales ratio has been quite flat for many decades. More recently, the net increase observed in the inventory-sales ratio in the past couple of years is in contrast to fit of the model, which might suggest that some of that increase could reverse in the coming years. |
| Keywords: | Inventories ; Motor Vehicles |
| JEL: | E22 E32 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2016-47&r=tre |
| By: | Kim Kaleva Kaivanto; Peng Zhang |
| Abstract: | Air transport Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions estimates differ greatly, depending on the calculation method employed. Among the IPCC, ICAO, DEFRA, and BrighterPlanet calculation methods, the largest estimate may be up to 4.5 times larger than the smallest. Such heterogeneity – and ambiguity over the true estimate – confuses the consumer, undermining the credibility of emissions estimates in general. Consequently, GHG emissions estimates do not currently appear on the front page of flight search-engine results. Even where there are differences between alternative flights’ emissions, this information is unavailable to consumers at the point of choice. When external considerations rule out alternative travel-modes, the relative ranking of flight options’ GHG emissions is sufficient to inform consumers’ decision making. Whereas widespread agreement on a gold standard remains elusive, the present study shows that the principal GHG emissions calculation methods produce consistent rankings within specific route-structure classes. Hence, for many consumers, the question of which calculation method to employ is largely irrelevant. But unless GHG emissions information is displayed at the point of decision, it cannot enter into consumers’ decision making. A credible and ambiguity-free alternative would thus be to display GHG ranking information on the front page of flight search-engine results. |
| Keywords: | greenhouse gas emissions, carbon footprint computation, scheduled passenger air transport, informed choice, decision making, behavior, policy |
| JEL: | Q54 K32 D62 D03 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lan:wpaper:115969274&r=tre |
| By: | Finn Roar Aune; Ann Christin Bøeng; Snorre Kverndokk; Lars Lindholt; Knut Einar Rosendahl (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | We study the interactions between fuel efficiency improvements in the transport sector and the oil market, where the efficiency improvements are policy-induced in certain regions of the world We are especially interested in feedback mechanisms of fuel efficiency such as the rebound effect, carbon leakages and the “green paradox†, but also the distributional effects via oil price changes for different regions, sectors and oil producers. An intertemporal numerical model of the international oil market is introduced, where OPEC-Core producers have market power. We find that the rebound effect has a noticeable effect on the transport sector, but also on other sectors through lower oil prices in the regions that introduce the policy. There is a small green paradox effect in the sense that oil consumption increases initially when the fuel efficiency measures are gradually implemented. Finally, there will be significant carbon leakages if the policy is not implemented in all regions, with leakage rates of 35 per cent or higher. Non-OPEC producers will suffer more than OPEC producers by fuel efficiency policies due to high production costs. |
| Keywords: | Fuel efficiency; transport; oil market; market power; distribution: feedback mechanisms |
| JEL: | D42 Q54 R48 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:839&r=tre |
| By: | Xavier Labandeira (Rede (Universidade de Vigo) and European University Institute); José M.aría Labeaga (Departamento de Análisis Económico (UNED)); Xiral López-Otero (Rede (Universidade de Vigo)) |
| Abstract: | Price elasticities of energy demand have become increasingly relevant in estimating the socio-economic and environmental effects of energy policies or of other events with influence on the prices of energy goods. Since the 1970s a large number of academic papers have provided both short and long-term price elasticity estimates for different countries by using several models, data and estimation techniques. Yet the literature offers a rather wide range of estimates for the price elasticities of demand for energy. This paper quantitatively summarizes the recent, but still sizeable, empirical evidence on this matter to facilitate a sounder economic assessment of energy price changes. It does so by using meta-analysis to identify the main factors affecting the elasticity results, both short and long term, for energy in general as well as for specific products: electricity, natural gas, gasoline, diesel and heating oil. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: short-term; long-term; electricity; gas; gasoline; diesel; oil |
| JEL: | C13 C83 Q41 |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:efe:wpaper:04-2015&r=tre |
| By: | Antonio Estache |
| Abstract: | The paper surveys the very heterogeneous economic literature on the scope and limits of efforts to match institutional constraints and needs, on the one hand, and infrastructure policy and project designs, on the other, to increase the odds of improving service access, affordability and quality. It includes a categorization of the main theoretical approaches and a brief summary of what they each contribute to the design of institutions. It summarizes the most robust conclusions from theory and evidence as well as the main gaps between theory and practice that would justify a solid research agenda. The information collected is also used to the possibility of conducting sector diagnostics. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/230527&r=tre |