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on Transport Economics |
| By: | van Riessen, B.; Negenborn, R.R.; Dekker, R. |
| Abstract: | Hinterland networks for container transportation require planning methods in order to increase efficiency and reliability of the inland road, rail and waterway connections. In this paper we aim to derive real-time decision rules for suitable allocations of containers to inland services by analysing the solution structure of a centralised optimisation method used offline on historic data. The decision tree can be used in a decision support system (DSS) for instantaneously allocating incoming orders to suitable services, without the need for continuous planning updates. Such a DSS is beneficial, as it is easy to implement in the current practice of container transportation. Earlier proposed centralised methods can find the optimal solution for the intermodal inland transportation problem in retrospect, but are not suitable when information becomes gradually available. The main contributions are threefold: firstly, a structured method for creating decision trees from optimal solutions is proposed. Secondly, an innovative method is used for obtaining multiple equivalent optimal solutions to prevent overfitting of the decision tree. And finally, a structured analysis of three error types is presented for assessing the quality of an obtained tree. A case study illustrates the method’s purpose by comparing the quality of the resulting plan with alternative methods. |
| Keywords: | Intermodal planning, synchromodal planning, container transportation, decision support, decision trees |
| Date: | 2016–03–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ems:eureir:79973&r=tre |
| By: | West , Jens (KTH/Sweco); Börjesson , Maria (KTH); Engelson , Leonid (KTH) |
| Abstract: | This paper performs an ex-post evaluation of the transport model forecast of the effects of the Gothenburg congestion charges, implemented in 2013. We find that the predicted traffic reductions across the cordon and travel time gains were close to those observed in the peak. However, the reduction in traffic across the cordon was under-predicted in off-peak. The design of the charging system implies that the path disutility cannot be computed as a sum of link attributes. The route choice model is therefore implemented as a hierarchical algorithm, including a continuous value of travel time (VTT) distribution. The VTT distribution was estimated from stated choice (SC) data, but had to be adjusted to be consistent with observed outcome. One reason for the discrepancy may be that VTT inferred from SC data does not reveal travellers’ long-term preferences. Another reason may be that apart from distance, travel time and charge there are other factors that determine drivers’ route choice. |
| Keywords: | Congestion charges; Transport model; Validation; Value of time; Volume delay function; Decision support |
| JEL: | R41 R42 R48 |
| Date: | 2016–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2016_009&r=tre |
| By: | Kristoffersson, Ida (KTH); Engelson, Leonid (KTH) |
| Abstract: | Efficiency of congestion charging schemes has been extensively studied in road pricing literature. However, few studies analyze both efficiency and equity of congestion charging schemes. This paper shows the importance of conducting an equity analysis as a complement to an efficiency analysis. Comparing different charging scenarios for Stockholm, the paper shows that changing the location of the charging stations may alter the system from progressive to regressive. In the paper, the most efficient scenario is the least equitable. Indeed, the results of this paper show that moving towards a more efficient scheme design, where amounts are more closely related to congestion level, the charging system turns from progressive to regressive. The reason is the uneven distribution of workplaces and residential areas in Stockholm. Combined with richer socio-economic groups to a larger extent living in the part of Stockholm with more workplaces, this leads to a trade-off between charging for congestion and designing an equitable system. The paper concludes that congestion charging cannot be said to be progressive or regressive per se, rather it varies between cities and even between different scheme designs for the same city. Furthermore, results of the mesoscopic simulations performed in the paper demonstrate that travelers as a whole may benefit from congestion charging even before the use of revenues to compensate the users. |
| Keywords: | Congestion charging; Efficiency; Equity; Welfare effects; Regressive; Progressive; Mesoscopic simulation |
| JEL: | R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2016–03–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2016_007&r=tre |
| By: | Judd Cramer; Alan B. Krueger |
| Abstract: | In most cities, the taxi industry is highly regulated and utilizes technology developed in the 1940s. Ride sharing services such as Uber and Lyft, which use modern internet-based mobile technology to connect passengers and drivers, have begun to compete with traditional taxis. This paper examines the efficiency of ride sharing services vis-à-vis taxis by comparing the capacity utilization rate of UberX drivers with that of traditional taxi drivers in five cities. The capacity utilization rate is measured by the fraction of time a driver has a fare-paying passenger in the car while he or she is working, and by the share of total miles that drivers log in which a passenger is in their car. The main conclusion is that, in most cities with data available, UberX drivers spend a significantly higher fraction of their time, and drive a substantially higher share of miles, with a passenger in their car than do taxi drivers. Four factors likely contribute to the higher capacity utilization rate of UberX drivers: 1) Uber’s more efficient driver-passenger matching technology; 2)the larger scale of Uber than taxi companies; 3) inefficient taxi regulations; and 4) Uber’s flexible labor supply model and surge pricing more closely match supply with demand throughout the day. |
| JEL: | D24 J01 J42 J44 O3 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22083&r=tre |
| By: | Dewenter, Ralf; Heimeshoff, Ulrich; Thomas, Tobias |
| Abstract: | A wide range of media provide information on many products based on reviews or expert opinions. The effects of such information on product sales is analyzed in a small but growing literature in economics and marketing science. However, there is much more coverage on companies and products in the media than product reviews and expert opinions. Based on a unique dataset, we test whether coverage of car manufacturers in opinion leading media have significant impact on registrations of new cars in Germany. We find that positive (or at least neutral) media coverage has statistically significant effect on the number of new cars sold by several leading manufacturers on the German car market. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:215&r=tre |
| By: | Salvador Bertomeu; Antonio Estache |
| Abstract: | The paper suggests a method to distinguish between various possible motivations (e.g. political vs economic) underlying policy implementation such as public investments. The true motivation can be revealed by modelling each policy goal, as the focus of the optimization anchoring a data envelopment analysis of the efficiency of the observed implementation. The approach is tested on Spain's land transport infrastructure policy since it is argued by many observers to be driven more by political than economic concerns. The method clearly shows that investments have generally been more consistent with a political objective (the centralization of economic power) than with an economic objective (maximizing mobility). |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/228940&r=tre |
| By: | Donaubauer, Julian; Nunnenkamp, Peter |
| Abstract: | The effects of foreign aid on the endowment of recipient countries with infrastructure have received surprisingly little attention in the empirical literature. This paper addresses this question by performing difference-in-difference-in-differences estimations, with the treatment defined as steep increases in aid for infrastructure since a distinct change in donor behavior in 2005. Mitigating endogeneity concerns in this way, we consistently find aid for infrastructure to be ineffective in improving the recipient countries' endowment with infrastructure. This finding holds not only for an encompassing index of economic infrastructure, but also for sub-indices of infrastructure in transportation, communication, energy, and finance. |
| Keywords: | sector-specific aid,aid effectiveness,infrastructure,difference-in-difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | F35 O18 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2034&r=tre |
| By: | Gianpaolo Parise |
| Abstract: | I explore the effect of the threat posed by low-cost competitors on debt structure in the airline industry. I use the route network expansion of low-cost airlines to identify routes where the probability of future entry increases dramatically. I find that when strategic routes are threatened, incumbents significantly increase debt maturity before entry occurs. Overall, the main findings suggest that airlines respond to entry threats trading off financial flexibility for lower rollover risk. The results are consistent with models in which firms set their optimal debt structure in the presence of costly rollover failure. |
| Keywords: | Liquidity risk, competition, debt maturity, rollover risk, threat of entry |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:556&r=tre |
| By: | Takuji Komatsuzaki |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the macroeconomic effects of improving public infrastructure in the Philippines. After benchmarking the Philippines relative to its neighbors in terms of level of public capital and quality of public infrastructure, and public investment efficiency, it uses model simulations to assess the macroeconomic implications of raising public investment and improving public investment efficiency. The main results are as follows: (i) increasing public infrastructure investment results in sustained gains in output; (ii) the effects of improving public investment efficiency are substantial; and (iii) deficit-financed increases in public investment lead to higher borrowing costs that constrain output increases over time, underscoring the importance of revenue mobilization. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure;Philippines;Asia and Pacific;Public Investment Efficiency, investment, public investment, tax, stock, capital stock, Infrastructures, |
| Date: | 2016–02–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/39&r=tre |
| By: | Eleftheriou, Konstantinos; Polemis, Michael |
| Abstract: | We build an Asymmetric Spatial Error Correction Model (ASpECM) to investigate the role of spatial dependence at the retail gasoline price adjustment mechanism. We find evidence that the symmetric price pattern is fully reversed when we account for spatial spillover effects, indicating that retail prices adjust more rapidly in an upward than a downward direction. This finding raises the possibility that retailers are more likely to engage in anti-competitive practices which may be ignored when the regulators bypass the role of spatial dependence. |
| Keywords: | ASpECM; Spatial dependence; Asymmetric gasoline price adjustment |
| JEL: | C23 L13 |
| Date: | 2016–02–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70037&r=tre |
| By: | Mogens Fosgerau (Technical University of Denmark [Lyngby]); André De Palma (CES, ENS Cachan, CNRS, Universite Paris-Saclay, 94235 Cachan, France) |
| Abstract: | We formulate a family of direct utility functions for the consumption of a differentiated good. This family is based on a generalization of the Shan-non entropy. It includes dual representations of all additive random utility discrete choice models, as well as models in which goods are complements. Demand models for market shares can be estimated by plain regression, enabling the use of instrumental variables. Models for microdata can be estimated by maximum likelihood. |
| Keywords: | market shares,product differentiation,discrete choice,duality,generalized entropy , C25, L1 |
| Date: | 2016–03–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01291347&r=tre |