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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Ofentse Mokwena (North West University) |
| Abstract: | The South African Minibus Taxi industry has had to various degrees been affected by government intervention, in micro, and macroeconomic forms. Transporting on average 11.9% and 15% of education trips and 26.88% and 26.18% of working trips between 2003 and 2013 respectively, the minibus sector dominates the market second to walking (Statistics South Africa, 2014; 2003). Recent transport policies seem to discourage the dominance of private cars and minibus vehicles. Meanwhile, the Department of Trade and Industry has developed an incentive package for the production of minibus vehicles. In the microeconomy, transportation policy makers tend to focus on the travel market, whilst manufacturers focus on the demand for minibus vehicles. This study proposes and tests a framework to explore the extent to which travel and production microeconomic indicators relate to dynamic macroeconomic activity over time. This paper is an experimental exploration of statistical relationships between selected macroeconomic indicators (SMIs) and the national minibus economy measured in vehicle sales and prices. Sales data is sourced from the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (NAAMSA) and price data from a manufacture dominating the market. Firstly, are there statistically significant macroeconomic forces at play in the minibus economy? Secondly, do these SMIs relate to minibus sales data including sales price per seat, registered vehicle population, vehicle sales, market ejections per year and cumulative forms of this data? We investigate this through correlation (a) analysis of price data, (b) sales data, (c) vehicle population in the travel market and (d) SMI data between 2002 and 2011. This is a mesoeconomic study, bridging the policy gap between macroeconomics (i.e. CPI) and microeconomics (i.e. vehicle population in the travel market). Statistically significant relationships and path dependencies are revealed within the framework developed. Therefore mesoeconomic research in the transport economic sphere is significantly viable. One shortfall of the paper is that the microeconomic analysis is narrow because travel data and vehicle utilisation data is not included. Further quantitative research is required to inform a policy agenda that enables an understanding of macroeconomic forces (national and regional level) that filter through transport economic policy. This study lays a unique avenue to equip transit and automotive decision makers, industries and planners to better forge through changes in the macroeconomy in microeconomic contexts. |
| Keywords: | paratransit, mesoeconomics, public transport production, industrial policy, minibus taxi |
| JEL: | E20 L50 L62 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:3205591&r=tre |
| By: | Pieterse,Duncan; Farole,Thomas; Odendaal,Martin; Steenkamp,Andre |
| Abstract: | Transport and logistics infrastructure is a critical determinant of the competitiveness of a country's producers and exporters. Well-functioning transport and logistics infrastructure relies not just on hardware, but critically on the operating environment that emerges from the interaction between private sector operators; national policies and regulatory regimes; and, in many countries, state-owned owners and operators of core infrastructure. This paper looks at the case of South Africa, where constraints in access, pricing, reliability, and network interfaces, particularly in the port and rail network, are eroding the competitiveness of South African exporters. The paper draws on interviews with a wide range of exporters along with secondary research to examine South Africa's port and rail network, and explores the underlying factors contributing to these constraints, including chronic underinvestment, an inadequate regulatory environment, insufficient private sector participation, and weak regional integration. The paper concludes with a review of the reforms needed to deliver a more broadly accessible and competitive rail and port sector based on international case examples. It highlights the need for institutional reforms to promote competitive pricing; private sector participation to increase investment and improve service delivery; information and coordination to address market failures and improve access; and cooperation to improve intermodal, interregional, and institutional interfaces. |
| Keywords: | Transport and Trade Logistics,Common Carriers Industry,Railways Transport,Airports and Air Services,Transport Economics Policy&Planning |
| Date: | 2016–01–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7532&r=tre |
| By: | Abate , Megersa (VTI); Vierth , Inge (VTI); Karlsson , Rune (VTI); de Jong , Gerard (Significance); Baak , Jaap (Significance) |
| Abstract: | As part of the further development of the Swedish national freight model system (SAMGODS), we developed a stochastic logistics model in the form of a disaggregate random utility-based model of transport chain and shipment size choice, estimated on the Swedish Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) 2004-2005. Moving from the current deterministic logistics model within the SAMGODS model to a stochastic one, is important because it bases the model on a stronger empirical foundation. The deterministic model was not estimated on observed choice outcomes, but just postulates that the least cost solution will be chosen. We estimated logit models which explain the joint choice of shipment size (in discrete categories) and transport chain separately for sixteen different commodity types. A transport chain (e.g. truck-vessel-truck) is a sequence of modes used to transport a shipment between the locations of production and consumption. Transport cost, travel time and value density are some of the main determinants included in the models. It is important to note that by their very nature these probabilistic models account for the influence of omitted factors. A deterministic model effectively assumes that the stochastic component can be ignored – in other words, that the researcher has full knowledge of all the drivers of behaviour and that there is no randomness in actual behaviour. As a result of adding the stochastic component in the random utility model, the response functions (now expressed in the form of probabilities) become smooth instead of lumped at 0 and 1 as in a deterministic model. This in turn will address the problem of “overshooting” that is prevalent in a deterministic model when testing different scenarios or policies. For two of the commodity types (metal products and chemical products) for which we estimated a transport chain and shipment size choice model, we also implemented the model in the SAMGODS framework. The implementation takes place at the level of the annual firm-to-firm flows by commodity type between producing and consuming firms that are generated by the first steps of the SAMGODS model (PC flows between zones that have been allocated to individual firms at both ends). For every firm-to-firm flow, shipment size and transport chain choice probabilities are calculated and added over the firm-to-firm flows of the PC relation (sample enumeration, as used in several disaggregate transport models). From this, the aggregate OD matrices by mode can be derived straightforwardly, as well as results in terms of tonne-kilometres by mode. It was not possible to empirically model transshipment location choices, because they are not stated in the CFS. Therefore, the determination of the optimal transshipment points for each available chain type from the set of available locations is still done deterministically. The implemented models were applied to produce elasticities of demand expressed in tonne-kilometres for various changes in cost and time for road, rail and sea transport. These elasticities are compared to those for the same commodity types in the deterministic model and to the available literature. The elasticities clearly differ between the two models, they are usually smaller (in absolute values) in the stochastic model, as expected. In the paper, we report the basic differences between a stochastic and a deterministic logistics model, the estimation results for the sixteen commodities, the way the stochastic model was implemented within the SAMGODS model, the elasticities that we obtained for the implemented stochastic model and the comparison with elasticities from the deterministic model and the literature. |
| Keywords: | Freight; Choice model; SAMGODS |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2016–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2016_001&r=tre |
| By: | Canella, Olivier (WSP); Flötteröd , Gunnar (KTH); Johnsson , Daniel (KTH); Kristoffersson, Ida (Sweco); Larek, Patryk (WSP); Thelin , Joacim (Sweco) |
| Abstract: | Trafikverket’s development plan states as one of eleven expected results “En ny generation persontransportmodellsystem, med dynamisk modell för storstad implementerad” (Trafikverket, 2014). IHOP aims to be this system. IHOP2 is the second development project advancing the IHOP system. IHOP2 couples the travel demand model Regent and the network assignment package TransModeler through a new, agent-based interface layer that is based on the MATSim transport simulation toolkit. The main objective of this effort is to demonstrate that such a coupling is feasible. This demonstration is delivered based on a prototypical Stockholm case study. The present document is also meant to serve as a technical documentation of the IHOP system in its current form. |
| Keywords: | Strategic transport planning; Dynamic traffic assignment; Travel demand modeling; Integrated transportation model system |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2016–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2016_003&r=tre |
| By: | Kenneth Liao; Sebastien Pouliot (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD)) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the relative preferences of motorists for E10 and E85 in different regions of the United States. We conducted an intercept survey of motorists with flex-fuel vehicles at E85 fuel stations in Iowa, Colorado, Oklahoma, Arkansas and California. The information collected includes prices observed at fuel stations, fuel choices by flex motorists, and responses to a series of opinion questions about ethanol and gasoline. We also proposed a hypothetical scenario to each motorist where either the price of the fuel selected was increased or the price of the fuel not selected was decreased. We estimate fuel preferences first using the revealed preference data from the observed choices and second using the stated preference data from the hypothetical price scenario. The empirical models correct for endogenous stratification within the sample and for endogeneity from unobservable demand shifters that carry over to the stated preference empirical model. We find that motorists significantly discount E85 compared to E10 even when adjusting for the different energy content of the two fuels and that the distribution of willingness to pay for E85 does not vary significantly between regions, except that flex motorists in California are willing to pay more for E85. |
| Keywords: | Ethanol, Gasoline, Renewable Fuel Standard, Willingness to pay. JEL codes: Q18, Q41, Q42. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ias:cpaper:16-wp562&r=tre |
| By: | Nikos Askitas |
| Abstract: | Traffic jams are an important problem both on an individual and on a societal level and much research has been done on trying to explain their emergence. The mainstream approach to road traffic monitoring is based on crowdsourcing roaming GPS devices such as cars or cellphones. These systems are expectedly able to deliver good results in reflecting the immediate present. To my knowledge there is as yet no system which offers advance notice on road conditions. Google Search intensity for the German word stau (i.e. traffic jam) peaks2 hours ahead of the number of traffic jam reports as reported by the ADAC, a well known German automobile club and the largest of its kind in Europe. This is true both in the morning(7 am to 9 am) and in the evening (5 pm to 7 pm). I propose such searches as a way of forecasting road conditions. The main result of this paper is that after controlling for time of day and day of week effects we can still explain a significant portion of the variation of the number of traffic jam reports with Google Trends and we can thus explain well over 80% of the variation of road conditions using Google search activity. A one percent increase in Google stau searches implies a .4 percent increase of traffic jams. Our paper is a proof of concept that aggregate, timely delivered behavioural data can help fine tune modern societies. |
| Keywords: | stau, traffic jams, highways, road conditions, Google Trends, prediction,forecasting, complexity, endogeneity, behaviour, big data, data science,computational social science, complex systems |
| JEL: | R41 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsw:rswwps:rswwps252&r=tre |
| By: | Aslund, Olof (IFAU); Engdahl, Mattias (Uppsala University) |
| Abstract: | We study the labor market impact of opening borders to low wage countries. The analysis exploits time and regional variation provided by the 2004 EU enlargement in combination with transport links to Sweden from the new member states. The results suggest an adverse impact on earnings of present workers in the order of 1 percent in areas close to pre-existing ferry lines. The effects are present in most segments of the labor market but tend to be greater in groups with weaker positions. The impact is also clearer in industries which have received more workers from the new member states, and for which across-the-border work is likely to be more common. There is no robust evidence on an impact on employment or wages. At least part of the effects is likely due to channels other than the ones typically considered in the literature. |
| Keywords: | migration policy, immigration, labor market outcomes |
| JEL: | J15 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9759&r=tre |
| By: | John J. García; Daniel Pérez; Marcela Orrego P.; John Mauro Cataño D. |
| Abstract: | Abstract: This article presents an Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) for different types of fuels in Colombia, focusing specifically on the transport industry. Estimates of price, expenditure and cross elasticities are computed using a Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) model and based on 10 years observations (2003-2012). Results show that diesel and regular gas behave as inelastic goods while natural gas is more elastic. Also, diesel fuels and natural gas seem to behave as substitutes while there’s a complementary relation among the others (regular gas-Diesel; regular fuels-Natural Gas). Regarding the expenditures elasticities, this paper concludes that regular gas and diesel behave as normal goods while natural gas seems be an inferior type of fuel for the transport sector. Resumen: Este paper utilizando el Modelo Casi Ideal de Demanda (AIDS) por medio de ecuaciones aparentemente no relacionadas para la industria de combustibles en el sector transporte en Colombia, analiza las elasticidades precio de la demanda, precio cruzada de la demanda y gasto de la demanda de la Gasolina motor, Diesel y Gas Natural Vehicular (GNV), dada la recomposición que ha presentado esta industria entre el 2003 y 2012, con el objetivo de determinar si estos combustibles se comportan como sustitutos o complementarios y se trata de bienes necesarios o no. Los principales resultados indican que la elasticidad precio de la demanda de la Gasolina y el Diesel son bienes inelásticos, mientras que el GNV se comporta como un bien elástico. Por su parte, por medio de la elasticidad precio cruzada de la demanda, se encuentra que solo el Diesel y el GNV se comportan como bienes sustitutos, mientras que para el resto de relaciones (Gasolina-Diesel y Gasolina-GNV) se observa un comportamiento de complementariedad. Además desde la elasticidad gasto de la demanda se encontró que la Gasolina y el Diesel se comportan como bienes normales, mientras que el GNV resulta ser un bien inferior. |
| Keywords: | AIDS, SUR, Microeconometrics, Transport, Fuels, Natural Gas, Diesel, Fuels, elasticities |
| JEL: | D12 D91 L92 Y L98 |
| Date: | 2016–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:014256&r=tre |
| By: | Audrey Berry (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Céline Guivarch (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Yves Jouffe (LAB'URBA - LAB'URBA - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12); Nicolas Coulombel (LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - PRES Université Paris-Est) |
| Abstract: | Si des indicateurs existent pour quantifier la précarité énergétique dans le logement, leur simple transposition au domaine du transport n’est pas satisfaisante. Afin de mieux identifier les ménages vulnérables à une hausse des prix des carburants, un « indicateur Composite » est proposé. Il permet de mieux refléter les différents facteurs qui contraignent la mobilité des ménages et leurs possibilités d’adaptation. |
| Keywords: | Mobilité des ménages,Précarité énergétique,Indicateur,Dépenses des ménages |
| Date: | 2015–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01175629&r=tre |
| By: | Elbert, R.; Pontow, H.; Benlian, Alexander |
| Date: | 2016–02–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:77871&r=tre |
| By: | Susana Martins Moretto (IET/CICS.NOVA, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Portugal and University of Tongji, Shanghai, R.P. China); António Brandão Moniz (IET/CICS.NOVA, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Portugal, and ITAS, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany); Douglas Robinson (Teqnode, Paris, France) |
| Abstract: | Future Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) has been visible in railway planning since 2001. Over a dozen reports have been produced in the past thirteen years, the majority being descriptive endogenous technocentric visions. They have played a role in the revitalization of the sector, predominantly relating to collective alignments and interdependencies in choice and form of the technological path the various stakeholders’ follow to achieve policy goals. A striking example is the case of ERRAC visions, where strategic agendas and roadmaps greatly impacted the high-speed train technology transition from the second to the third generation of vehicles. However, today’s socio-economic events have revealed the limitations of previously applied FTA fall short for railways. In particular, there is an inability to bridge technocentric visions with the societal challenges that are becoming increasingly prominent on the policy agenda. To fill this FTA-need in railways it is here proposed a role for constructive technology assessment as bridging function towards achieving success in the transition to a next generation of high-speed trains. The findings here presented result from the analysis of reports and interviews with their commissioning institutions and drafters. |
| Keywords: | future oriented technology analysis; constructive technology assessment; technology transitions; s-curve; multi-level alignments; high-speed trains |
| JEL: | O31 O38 R42 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieu:wpaper:65&r=tre |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CleanED - Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Lab - USTH - Université des Sciences et des Technologies de Hanoi) |
| Abstract: | In the last decade two-wheeler electric vehicles have been taking over the streets of Asian capitals, to the point that it is time to declare the gas moped commercially dead. Rest in peace |
| Keywords: | transport, véhicule électrique, ville durable, qualité de l'air, bruit |
| Date: | 2016–02–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01274178&r=tre |
| By: | Hassane Abouaissa (LGI2A - Laboratoire de Génie Informatique et d'Automatique de l'Artois - UA - Université d'Artois); Michel Fliess (LIX - Laboratoire d'informatique de l'École polytechnique [Palaiseau] - Polytechnique - X - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ALIEN); Cédric Join (CRAN - Centre de Recherche en Automatique de Nancy - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, NON-A - Non-Asymptotic estimation for online systems - INRIA Lille - Nord Europe - INRIA - CRIStAL - Centre de Recherche en Informatique, Signal et Automatique de Lille - Université Lille 1 - Sciences et technologies - INRIA - Ecole Centrale de Lille - Université de Lille Sciences humaines et sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ALIEN) |
| Abstract: | Recent advances in time series, where deterministic and stochastic modelings as well as the storage and analysis of big data are useless, permit a new approach to short-term traffic flow forecasting and to its reliability, i.e., to the traffic volatility. Several convincing computer simulations, which utilize concrete data, are presented and discussed. |
| Keywords: | financial engineering, volatility, risk, persistence, time series, forecasts,road traffic, transportation control, management systems, intelligent knowledge-based systems |
| Date: | 2016–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01275311&r=tre |
| By: | Sebastian Acevedo Mejia; Lu Han; Hye S Kim; Nicole Laframboise |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the role of airlift supply on the tourism sector in the Caribbean. The paper examines the relative importance of U.S.-Caribbean airlift supply factors such as the number of flights, seats, airlines, and departure cities on U.S. tourist arrivals. The possible endogeneity problem between airlift supply and tourist arrivals is addressed by using a structural panel VAR and individual country VARs. Among the four airlift supply measures, increasing the number of flights is found to be the most effective way to boost tourist arrivals on a sustained basis. As a case study, the possible crowding effect of increasing the number of U.S. flights to Cuba is investigated and, based on past observations, we find no significant impact on flights to other Caribbean countries. The impact of natural disasters on airlift supply and tourist arrivals is also quantified. |
| Date: | 2016–02–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/33&r=tre |