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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Westin , Jonas (CERUM); de Jong , Gerard (ITS Leeds); Vierth , Inge (VTI); Krüger , Niclas (VTI); Karlsson, Rune (VTI); Johansson, Magnus (Trafikanalys) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of the paper is to analyze how sensitive the Swedish national freight model system Samgods is to uncertainties in its production-consumption matrices (PC-matrices). This is done by studying how sensitive outputs from one of its key component, the logistics model, are to changes in the PC-matrices. This paper is, to our knowledge, the first attempt to analyze the sensitivity and economies of scale of a national freight transport model using Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicate that the logistics model is able to find new logistics solutions when larger demand volumes are assumed. Freight volumes are calculated to shift to sea transport. If the transport volume increases with one percent, the logistics cost per tonne is on average reduced by about 0.5 percent. Part of the cost reduction comes from increased consolidation of shipments due to larger transport volumes. There is also a positive correlation between total transport demand and the load factor for heavier lorries, trains and larger ships. Without empirical data and further analysis it is difficult to assess the estimated strength of the effect. Furthermore, the analysis indicates that it might be possible to reduce runtimes by removing small transport flows from the PC-matrices without affecting aggregate results too much. |
| Keywords: | Sensitivity analysis; Large scale freight model; Monte Carlo simulation |
| JEL: | C52 C63 R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2015–05–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2015_010&r=tre |
| By: | Montag, Josef |
| Abstract: | The volume of pollution produced by an automobile is determined by driver's behavior along three margins: (i) vehicle selection, (ii) kilometers driven, and (iii) on-road fuel economy. The first two margins have been studied extensively, however the third has received scant attention. How significant is this 'intensive margin'? What would be the optimal policies when it is taken into account? The paper develops and analyzes a simple model of the technical and behavioral mechanisms that determine the volume emissions produced by a car. The results show that an optimal fuel tax would provide drivers with appropriate incentives along all three margins and that only public information is needed for a fuel tax to be set optimally. In contrast, an optimal distance tax would require private information. Lastly, relative to the optimal fuel tax, a simple uniform fuel tax is shown to be progressive. Thus, being already deployed worldwide, a uniform fuel tax is an attractive second-best policy. These findings should be accounted for when designing new mechanisms to alleviate motor vehicle pollution. |
| Keywords: | automobile externalities, car pollution, CO2 emissions, fuel economy, driving behavior, distance tax, fuel tax. |
| JEL: | H23 Q58 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2015–05–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:64398&r=tre |
| By: | Huber, Hans |
| Abstract: | This paper examines air traffic patterns among China’s scheduled airlines in January 2006 and January 2011, using Official Airline Guide data on carrier schedules. The author classifies Chinese carriers into one of 4 classes. Airports are also organized into a classification scheme based on several criteria related to the total volume of traffic, the carriers serving the airports and the nature of the airports to which they are connected. Counts, sums, percentage shares and changes in these calculations between 2006 and 2011 are presented in a small number of tables. Inferences about the fundamental structure and future patterns of capacity growth for the yet not fully emerged Chinese ATS can be drawn. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:13652&r=tre |
| By: | Newton de Castro |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:0029&r=tre |
| By: | Adel Al Khattab (Al Hussein Bin Talal University) |
| Abstract: | The main aim of this paper is to examine risk perception in transport among a representative sample of the Jordanian public.The results are based on a questionnaire surveys carried out among a representative sample of the Jordanian public in 2013. The results showed that transport risks fell into two main categories: public and private mode of transport. Respondents assessed the probability of experiencing risk as lower for themselves than others, and they were also more worried about others experiencing a transport threat.Overall, worry was found to be the most important predictor of risk perception. Female subjects were found to emphasize worry in regard to both public and private transportation. Worry was found to be most important in regard to public transportation whereas probability assessments (i.e. cognitive evaluations) were found to be most important in regard to private mode of transport. This difference may guide how risk is communicated to the public. |
| Keywords: | Risk perception, Transport, Jordan. |
| JEL: | M16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:1003001&r=tre |
| By: | Timo Gschwind (Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, Germany) |
| Abstract: | The temporal constraints of the Synchronized Pickup and Delivery Problem (SPDP) impose a complex scheduling problem for the service times at the customer locations. This makes the efficient feasibility checking of routes intricate. We present two different route feasibility checks for the SPDP and compare their practical runtime on a huge number of randomly generated routes. Furthermore, we generalize the concept of forward time slack, which has proven a versatile tool for feasibility testing of VRP variants, to the SPDP. |
| Keywords: | Vehicle routing, Temporal synchronization, Feasibility testing, Forward time slack |
| Date: | 2015–05–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jgu:wpaper:1503&r=tre |
| By: | Salvo, A; Geiger, F |
| Abstract: | It has been proposed that lower NOx emission fuels such as ethanol can mitigate air pollution from vehicles burning oil-based hydrocarbons. Yet, existing modeling and laboratory studies, even those seeking to simulate the same environment, vary in their predictions of how gasoline/ethanol blends affect atmospheric pollutant concentrations, including ozone. Importantly, ambient concentrations have not been evaluated during an actual – as opposed to hypothetical – shift in fuel mix in a real-world environment. Here, we report the first such study, for the subtropical megacity of São Paulo, Brazil. We combine detailed street-hour level data on regulated pollutant concentrations, meteorology, and traffic with fuel shares from a consumer demand model to compare concentrations across subsamples that differ only in the fuel mix but are otherwise similar in meteorology, anthropogenic activity, and biogenic emissions. As the gasoline share of the bi-fuel light-duty vehicle fleet rose by 62 percentage points, we estimate a robust and statistically significant reduction of about 20% in ozone concentrations, and less precise increases in NO and CO concentrations. We propose that our “model-free” analysis potentially accounts for the interaction between anthropogenic and biogenic emissions and caution that successful strategies against ozone pollution require knowledge of the local chemistry and analysis beyond the presently monitored pollutants, most notably fine particles. |
| Keywords: | ozone; gasoline; ethanol; consumer demand; urban air; air quality; atmospheric modeling |
| JEL: | D12 Q16 Q42 Q53 R41 |
| Date: | 2014–02–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:57868&r=tre |
| By: | Gruenewald, Paul J |
| Abstract: | Despite many decades of prevention efforts, alcohol related traffic injuries and deaths due to drinking and drunken driving remain major problems in communities throughout the US. The National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA) has recently sponsored an extensive study of the etiology of these problems across mid-size cities in California and is currently supporting an evaluation of community-based environmental preventive interventions intended to reduce these problems in 24 of these cities. One of the primary concerns of these studies has been to identify the ecological causes and correlates of drinking and drunken driving in order to better tailor prevention efforts. If we can identify the primary sources of drinking drivers in community settings, we can tailor prevention efforts to drinkers in those settings and develop effective behavioral ecological interventions. The challenges are to develop a comprehensive representation of sources of drinking and drunken driving in community settings, and then use that information to guide prevention efforts. Progress on these efforts will be discussed. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, traffic injuries, NIAAA, alcohol related traffic injuries |
| Date: | 2015–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt5j4697xf&r=tre |
| By: | Künn-Nelen, Annemarie (ROA, Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the relation between commuting time and health in the United Kingdom. I focus on four different types of health outcomes: subjective health measures, objective health measures, health behavior, and health care utilization. Fixed effect models are estimated with British Household Panel Survey data. I find that whereas objective health and health behavior are barely affected by commuting time, subjective health measures are clearly lower for people who commute longer. A longer commuting time is, moreover, related to more visits to the general practitioner. Effects turn out to be more pronounced for women and for commuters driving a car. For women, commuting time is also negatively related to regular exercise and positively to calling in sick. |
| Keywords: | health, commuting time, transportation mode |
| JEL: | I12 R41 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9031&r=tre |
| By: | Jean-François Angers; Denise Desjardins; Georges Dionne; François Guertin |
| Abstract: | In this article, we propose a new parametric model for the modelling and estimation of accident distributions for drivers working in fleets of vehicles. The analysis uses panel data and takes into account individual and fleet effects in a non-linear model. Our sample contains more than 456,000 observations of vehicles and 87,000 observations of fleets. Non-observable factors are treated as random effects. The distribution of accidents is affected by both observable and non-observable factors from drivers, vehicles and fleets. Past experience of both individual drivers and individual fleets is very significant to explain road accidents. Unobservable factors are also significant, which means that insurance pricing should take into account both observable and unobservable factors in predicting the rate of road accidents under asymmetric information. |
| Keywords: | Accident distributions, drivers in fleet of vehicles, individual effect, firm effect, panel data, Poisson, gamma, Dirichlet, insurance pricing |
| JEL: | C23 C25 G22 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:lacicr:1506&r=tre |
| By: | Christian A. L. Hilber; Charles Palmer |
| Abstract: | We exploit a unique panel of 75 metro areas (‘cities’) across the globe and employ a cityfixed effects model to identify the determinants of within-city changes in air pollution concentration between 2005 and 2011. Increasing car and population densities significantly reduce air pollution concentration in city centers where air pollution induced health risks are greatest. These effects are largely confined to cities in non-OECD countries. Two possible mechanisms for the negative effect of car density are explored: (i) increasing car density permits a decentralization of residential and economic activity; and (ii) car usage substitutes for motorbike usage. We find limited evidence in favour of (i) and no evidence in favour of (ii). We also observe a complex relationship between income and pollution concentration as well as a general downward-trend in pollution concentration over time. Overall, our findings are indicative that densely populated polycentric cities may be ‘greener’ and ‘healthier’ than comparable monocentric ones. |
| Keywords: | Urbanization; urban form; decentralization; air pollution; transport; built environment |
| JEL: | Q01 Q53 R11 R41 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:61791&r=tre |
| By: | Avinoam Meir (Dept of Geography and Environmental Development, Ben Gurion University of the Negev) |
| Abstract: | Recent decades have witnessed intensive discussion in planning literature on gray space. From a geographical perspective it revolves primarily around gray settlements. We raise two issues of planning relevance: first, gray spacing may serve established planning processes despite their inherent contradiction; second, while roads are spatial entities, their analysis in planning theory and practice literature is marginal.Our research deals with Road 31 in the northern Negev and Bedouin unrecognized gray space villages. Recently the state has initiated a massive road upgrade project but state planning officials, planning firms and Israel Road Company did not pursue any public participation of the Bedouin who refused to evacuate their places and cooperate. The IRC hired therefore an informal "expropriation team" with profound acquaintance with Bedouin unique indigenous culture, society and polity. This unique mechanism, which is neither commensurate with official state policy of non-recognition, nor is under state formal support, facilitated intensive and creative negotiation and mediation with individual Bedouin families over financial and other terms of evacuation. The rate of success is very high, expediting the pursuance of the project considerably.Our research reveals that only by leaving the informal Bedouin reality intact, through team's firm obligation for state avoidance from taking uni-directional radical measures in Bedouin property rights and village recognition issues, could the conflict be resolved satisfactorily and the project expedited, despite the formal policy of non-recognition. Paradoxically thus, informality may facilitate efficient dialogical mechanisms benefiting both sides. This insight carries important conceptual implications for understanding planning of gray spaces, as well as for understanding the special role of roads in this unique and complex indigenous socio-spatial system. |
| Keywords: | Indigenous people, planning, space, politics, Bedouin. |
| JEL: | O20 O20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:1003410&r=tre |