|
on Transport Economics |
| By: | Daniel Shefer |
| Abstract: | The challenges facing transportation planners have grown continuously over the years owing to mounting problems of congestion, concerns with environmental degradation and global warming, enhanced awareness of safety, and the increasing complexity of travel behaviour patterns associated with modern life. Modern life has brought about more travel, more leisure time, and more engagement in out-of-home, non-work activities. Modern life, especially in more recent years, has also witnessed rapid population and economic growth in many urban areas and the decentralization of residential, commercial, and work places. It has also seen more women entering the labour market. Accompanying these changes has been the relaxation of some constraints, such as the need to commute at fixed hours, thus providing more degrees of freedom of travel. Because of the significantly increased alternative activities and travel patterns from which households can now choose, travel patterns have become more complicated. In addition, the total number of trips has increased, trip chaining is more frequent, and traffic peaks are becoming smoother. All this has resulted in making the analysis of travel behaviour more complex. Understanding travel behaviour is paramount in the design of various policies towards sustainable transportation development that will on the one hand support economic growth and well-being of the population and on the other hand will minimize adverse transport externalities. These externalities are especially pertinent in metropolitan areas because there the infrastructure networks are most intensively used and development densities are high. Increased externalities from motor vehicles called for the development of new policy and planning objectives toward sustainable transportation. In this regard, travel behaviour lies at the core of procedures for analysing and evaluating transportation-related measures aimed at improving urban mobility, environmental quality, safety, and at achieving a wide variety of social objectives. Policy analysis and planning, then, rely on travel behaviour studies and travel-demand models. Policy-making today requires more sophisticated tools, and these have been developed in terms of advanced models, most of them activity-based, that go into different levels of detail on various scales: spatial, temporal, and social. Together with the development of activity-based models, various specific models have been estimated and implemented in support of sustainable policy analysis, some of them as auxiliary to activity-based models and some of them as stand-alone models. The aim of this paper is to highlight and emphasize the important role of understanding travel behaviour and the complex relations between the various travel externalities to the development of sustainable urban development and transport policies. |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa14p306&r=tre |
| By: | Se-il Mun; Yoko Konishi; Yoshihiko Nishiyama; Ji-eun Sung |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an approach to measuring the values of time cost for freight transportation, and examines its applicability through empirical analysis. We develop the method based on the hedonic approach by explicitly formulating how transport time is determined as market outcome. In the model, the freight charge, the price of transportation services, is determined through interaction in the transport market, where shippers demand and carriers supply transport services. We assume that shippers are willing to pay higher price for faster delivery, which requires additional cost for carriers. Consequently equilibrium freight charge tends to be higher for shorter transport time, such as express delivery fee in postal service. Output of transport service is a bundle of multiple attributes such as quantity, distance, and transport time, thereby freight charge is also a function of multiple attributes. Our model distinguish between the transport technology and firm's effort for reducing transport time: the former is exogenous for firms, and for the market. This formulation has a merit that the effects of technological change (including infrastructure improvement) are more rigorously evaluated: equilibrium transport time under new technology is determined in the market where transport firms choose the level of effort in response to technological change. We estimate the parameters of freight charge function, using microdata from the 2005 Net Freight Flow Census (NFFC), in which information on freight charge, weight, origin and destination, and transport time for individual shipment are obtained. Based on the estimated freight charge function, we obtain the values of transport time for shippers (VTTS) as implicit price in the hedonic theory. We further present a method to evaluate the welfare effect of time-saving technological change based on the hedonic approach. We obtain the estimates of value of time for various combinations of distance (d) and shipment size (weight, q). The value of time is larger as transport distance is shorter, or as shipment size is smaller. Around the sample mean (d = 200, q = 4), the value is 1,232Yen/hour (for time designated delivery) and 1,966 Yen/hour (without time designation). These values are smaller than those estimated by the willingness to pay method (2,606Yen and 1,972Yen) based on discrete choice model of expressway use. We apply the method to evaluate the benefit of time-reducing technological change (including infrastructure improvement) based on hedonic approach to evaluation of expressway construction. Then we compare the results with those obtained by the existing methods. The results suggest that the benefits calculated by our method tend to be larger than those based on the other methods. |
| Keywords: | transport time; inter-regional trade; hedonic approach; |
| JEL: | H43 L91 R41 |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa14p410&r=tre |
| By: | Börjesson , Maria (KTH); Kristoffersson , Ida (SWECO) |
| Abstract: | This paper summarizes the traffic effects of the Gothenburg congestion charges introduced in 2013. The system is similar to the system introduced in Stockholm in 2006; both are designed as time-of-day dependent cordon pricing systems. We find that many effects and adaptation strategies are similar to those found in Stockholm, indicating a high transferability between smaller and larger cities with substantial differences in public transport use. However, there are also important differences regarding some of the effects, the accuracy of the model forecasts and public support arising from different topologies, public transport use, congestion levels and marketing of the congestion charges to the public. Finally, the Gothenburg case suggests that whether congestion charges are introduced or not depends on the support among the political parties, and that this is determined primarily by the prevailing institutional setting and power over revenues, and to a lower extent by the public support, and benefits from congestion reduction. |
| Keywords: | Congestion charges; Behavioural adaptation; Time-dependent cordon; Tolling system; Traffic effects; Public support; Transferability; System design |
| JEL: | R41 R42 R48 |
| Date: | 2014–12–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2014_025&r=tre |
| By: | Halkos, George; Kevork, Ilias; Tziourtzioumis, Chris |
| Abstract: | In this paper we present for Greece a methodology for predicting emissions and estimating the abatement costs of the transport sector, focusing our analysis on passenger cars. In the first section we estimate for the period 2000-2030 the annual emissions of the most important pollutants using the Tier 2 method. For the application of this method, we forecast the number of passenger cars and the annual average distance driven per car technology, fuel type and displacement category. In particular, the forecasts for the number of cars are obtained by fitting trend and double exponential smoothing models to the available data from 2000 to 2013. Necessary adjustments to the number of cars of the latest technologies are made for each year such that the sum of predictions equals to the estimated total number of cars obtained through an econometric model that relates the changes in the number of cars and the changes in GDP (at current prices). In the second part of the study we estimate the total pollution cost at 2013 prices for four alternative scenarios, where for each scenario we assume changes for the period 2013-2030 to the composition of the fleet of passenger cars for the benefit of either gasoline or diesel or hybrids or LPG cars. The costs analyzed are capital, operation and maintenance and fuel. |
| Keywords: | Transport sector; passenger cars; tier 2 method; abatement costs; emissions. |
| JEL: | C53 M21 Q50 Q53 Q54 Q58 R40 |
| Date: | 2014–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:60197&r=tre |
| By: | M. Rouhani, Omid |
| Abstract: | This paper offers a general overview of the road pricing concept. It first examines the common objectives used in road pricing, namely (a) congestion reduction; (b) raising profits; (c) social welfare maximization; etc. Then, it explores various types of road pricing, including two major ones: (1) road tolls and (2) congestion pricing charges. Next, general modeling approaches used for estimating the impacts of road pricing are discussed. Finally, the paper concludes with a checklist explaining how to promote a successful road pricing scheme. |
| Keywords: | road pricing, congestion pricing, congestion reduction, profit maximization, road tolls. |
| JEL: | L91 R4 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2014–11–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:59662&r=tre |
| By: | Yuzuru Miyata; Hiroyuki Shibusawa; Tomoaki Fujii |
| Abstract: | In this paper we explore economic and environmental impacts of promotion and realization of an electric vehicle society (EVS). More concretely, this paper emphasizes a CGE-modelling approach to evaluate the following issues: entire economic impacts of subsidies for promotion of an EVS, the possibility of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and prices reduction, a change of industrial structure towards an EVS, and a modal shift towards an EVS. Our simulation results demonstrate that after applying 20% subsidies to five industries including electric vehicles (EVs) manufacturing, EV transport, solar power generation, cogeneration and other transport, the total industrial output and municipal GDP increase. A large growth rates are found in industries where subsidies are introduced except non-ferrous metal industry. However, it is motivating that decreasing proportions are found in oil, coal product, mining, heat supply and gasoline vehicles (GVs) transport industries. Moreover all the commodity prices decrease since subsidies are given to some industries. Hence Toyohashi CityÂfs economy shows a direction where the demand for conventional vehicles and energy use are decreased, conversely, the demand for EVs and renewable energy are increased that displays different lifestyles from the current one. For all these reasons, it is our conclusion that EVS can really represent a realistic and alternative society both in terms of economic development and CO2 emissions reduction. In this study therefore it is clear that modal shift will occur to EVS, and thus we suggest for promotion of a new industrial structure to introduce an EVS in Toyohashi City in Japan. The proposed model can even be applied to the other cities in Japan and other countries in the world which are similar to this area. |
| Keywords: | electric vehicle; CGE; Toyohashi; R13; O18 |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa14p529&r=tre |
| By: | Pauline Givord; Céline Grislain-Letrémy; Helene Naegele |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the impact of fuel prices on new car purchases, using exhaustive individual-level data of monthly registration of new private cars in France from 2003 to 2007. Detailed information on the car holder enables us to account for heterogeneous preferences across purchasers. We identify demand parameters through the large oil price fluctuations of this period. We find that the sensitivity of short-term demand with respect to fuel prices is generally low. Using these estimates, we assess the impact of a policy equalizing diesel and gasoline taxes. Such a policy would reduce the share of diesel in new cars purchases from 69% to 66% in the short-run, without substantially changing the average fuel consumption or CO2 emission levels of new cars. Alternatively, a carbon tax would slightly decrease the CO2 emission levels of new cars in the short-run (by 0.1%) without any significant impact on the share of diesel cars purchased. |
| Keywords: | Fuel prices, automobiles, carbon dioxide emissions, environmental tax |
| JEL: | C25 D12 H23 L62 Q53 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1428&r=tre |
| By: | Maik Hoemke |
| Abstract: | Increasing expansion of transport infrastructure is taking place in more and more countries. This trend, strongly encouraged by the globalization process, is reflected in ever-shorter journey times in both national and international travel. During such developments, extensive urban-planning alterations in areas that are being provided with new transport infrastructure tend to be viewed purely in terms of macro-economic datasets. The present study is therefore intended to add a new level to research on the efficacy of new transport facilities ? namely, economical effects measured by surveys and observations. The new Lötschberg Base Tunnel in Switzerland is to be taken as an example case for the purpose. When the 34.6-km Lötschberg Base Tunnel opened for scheduled operations in December 2007, the rural communes in the Upper Valais region acquired a strong new link with the catchment area of Berne. For example, the train journey between Visp (small municipality in Upper Valais with 7.000 inhabitants) and Berne was shortened from 2 hours to less than 1 hour. In addition to the link with Berne, internal public transport connections in Upper Valais were also tremendously improved and extended. Interchange links were improved, connections were better organized, high-frequency timetables were introduced and services were substantially increased ? transport facilities that are every bit as good as an urban railway network. In the past 5 years after opening of the tunnel extensive empirical methods were established to observe economic changes in the municipality of Visp. At first there were yearly observations of the shop opening times in the municipality connected with observations of new shop openings or closures. Also a questionnaire was conducted and was sent to all shop owners in Visp. Finally the housing market was observed by photography. Every 2 years pictures were shot which shown the changes in the area of Visp, especially in the residential home sector. Additionally expert interviews were added to classify the findings of all empirical methods. The aim of the study is to demonstrate that research focusing merely on economic macro data effects in a given area, and ignoring the social aspects of new infrastructure, inevitably suffers a loss of quality. The special characteristic of the present study lies in the way in which it assesses infrastructure developments, in regions that were previously peripheral, on the basis of urban development phenomena and social phenomena. |
| Keywords: | Mobility; mobile methods; social space; transport infrastructure |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa14p1379&r=tre |
| By: | Anastasia Lomakina |
| Abstract: | Maritime location of Canada has not been questioned by many generations of researchers. However, a quick look at the map or the coastline measurements do not always allow to identify the real sources of its inalienable properties. Canada ranks first in coastline in the world and is formally "the most maritime country of the planet". At the same time traditional approach of estimation of maritime location used separately would not allow judging the extent of so-called maritimeness of Canada, and the combined use of different approaches could lead to discrepant results. In our study we have used a method proposed by L. Bezrukov, which yields to estimate continental location in transport-geographic terms. This method enables us to give the integral assessment of maritime location of Canada based on population distribution and the impact of inland waterways suitable for sea transport. The estimate proves that there is in Canada an interesting mix of giant inland spaces and vast seaside regions, which in combination with the natural geographic and socio-economic factors leads to a 'multidimensional' maritime position and curious territorial organization of economy and population distribution. The estimate proves that Canada is a country with low continental degree. However, maritimeness of modern Canada is defined not by coastline length or interocean position but by ample development of hand-made inner water ways, which lowered continentality of Canadian eucumene by having increased transport, economic and geographical access to the sea. Comparison of transport-economic and transport-geographic remoteness from the sea confirm the constant influence of these unique seaways. This suggestes the conclusion that Canadians themselves have made their country maritime. Paradoxical conclusion was that in different parts of Canada maritime influence is not always defined by distance to the sea. For Canada, there is another unexpected pattern: the further north is, the higher the degree of transport-geographic continentality. Population and economy, originally developed in these transport and geographical conditions, are mainly located in coastal and maritime areas in their new, non-traditional interpretation. Ultracontinental territories compensate unfavorable interior and landlocked location, using the continental neighbourhood. Overall, Canada demonstrates a successful realization of its maritime potential. It was prouved by estimation of adducted transportation share of economy that confirmed considerable de facto cost reduction of transport work owing to sea transport use. |
| Keywords: | Canada; economic-geographical location; maritime location; transport; continentality |
| JEL: | P48 |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa14p1534&r=tre |
| By: | Paul J. Burke; Shuhei Nishitateno |
| Abstract: | This study utilizes data for 144 countries from 1991-2010 to present the first international estimates of the gasoline price elasticity of road fatalities. We instrument each country's gasoline price with that country's oil reserves and the yearly international crude oil price to address potential endogeneity concerns. Our findings suggest that the average reduction in road fatalities resulting from a 10% increase in the gasoline pump price is in the order of 3-6%. Around 35,000 road deaths per year could be avoided by the removal of global fuel subsidies. |
| Keywords: | road deaths, road safety, gasoline price, subsidy, taxation |
| JEL: | R41 H23 O18 Q43 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2014-18&r=tre |
| By: | Frédéric Dobruszkes; Catherine Dehon; Moshe Givoni |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses whether the current provision of air services in Europe is impacted by high-speed rail (HSR). An ex-post analysis is carried out considering 161 routes EU-wide using transnational data. We use censored regressions with special attention paid to the presence of outliers in the sample and to the potential problem of non-normality of error terms. It is found that shorter HSR travel times involve less air services, with similar impact on both airline seats and flights. This impact quickly drops between 2.0- and 2.5-h HSR travel time. The impact of HSR frequencies is much more limited. Hubbing strategies led by the airlines have the opposite effect from HSR, as hubs involve more air services. Airline/ HSR integration at the airport and cities being served by both central and peripheral stations have no significant impact. Metropolitan and national spatial patterns may help to better understand intermodal effects. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/176465&r=tre |
| By: | Arthur Grimes; Eyal Apatov; Larissa Lutchmann; Anna Robinson |
| Abstract: | We analyse the impacts that infrastructure provision has on long run urban development. The topic is of major importance to policy-makers when deciding whether or not to invest in major infrastructure projects. The analysis helps policy-makers to understand the intended, and potentially unintended, long run consequences of their infrastructure investment decisions. Reflecting a spatial equilibrium approach, we maintain that population flows reflect people's overall rankings of urban areas; thus, through revealed preference, growing cities are shown to have had preferred attributes (wages and amenities combined) relative to other cities. Social infrastructure (such as higher educational institutions and hospitals) and transport infrastructure may have both productive and amenity value. Thus increased provision of such infrastructure within a city may enhance a city's attractiveness provided their benefits exceed costs of provision. Poor infrastructure provision linking an urban area to major cities and other amenities may, conversely, reduce the attractiveness of that urban area, curtailing its long run population growth. We first outline a new theoretical model that includes distance-related effects on individual utility, and hence on urban population development. The new derivation, while similar to that of a recent model by Duranton and Turner (Review of Economic Studies, 2012), avoids a convenient but questionable assumption in their approach in relation to the effect of distance on individual utility. Our theoretical approach includes the impact of amenities, and the effect of distance in reducing their attractiveness, while also accounting for potential distance-related effects on wages and living costs. We test our model using long-term (80 year) historical data (measured every 10 years from 1926 to 2006) that enables us to relate the populations of 60 New Zealand urban areas to early infrastructure provision and initial conditions (e.g. existence of a harbour, topography, climate, etc). The use of additional data from the start of the twentieth century as instruments enables us to test whether early (and subsequent) infrastructure provision affected the shape of city development over the 80 year period. As well as dealing with endogeneity issues through our choice of instruments, we use spatial-econometrics techniques to test for spatial spillovers between cities. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure; city development; population growth; migration; spatial equilibrium |
| JEL: | H54 R12 |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa14p178&r=tre |
| By: | Knieps, Günter |
| Abstract: | This chapter is organized as follows: In section 2 the historical roots of third party access regulation are characterized. This includes the Prussian railway law of 1838 and the terminal railroad case of 1912. In section 3 a normative frame-work, based on modern network economics, for the evaluation of third party access policies is provided. In section 4, the gradual process of market opening for railway transport services and the evolution of third party access regulation in Europe are characterized. In this context the potentials for competition on the markets for passenger rail services and public subsidies are also considered. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:aluivr:150&r=tre |
| By: | fikret zorlu |
| Abstract: | The progress in logistics industry is highly dependent upon international and domestic trade performance of a city. In the literature various studies deal with economic development and its influence on urban growth and land use. Agglomeration theory and cluster theory try to identify the factors of physical concentration and networking characteristics of an specific industry at regional and local scale. This study deals with logistics industry, its relation with international trade and impacts on urban development. Logistics industry is dependent to certain transport infrastructures (port, highway, railway), investment areas (warehouses, truck terminals, delivery center, transport terminals), social capital (skilled labor), operational capacity (fleet size, sub-contracting companies) and land uses (availability of land, land prices, accessibility). This study deals with the role of international trade and logistics industry on urban land use formation in Mersin, Turkey. In Turkey, international trade figures show a gradual growth and hence logistics industry is one of the leading activities of regional economy. Logistics industry in Mersin showed remarkable developments both in terms of variety and scale of activities; therefore, it may refer to a distinct category of economic development of the city. In the last decades both domestic and international trade showed notable growth and geographic concentrations of logistics firms and specialized labor are interrelated to dynamics of trade activities. This study investigates spatial distribution and hierarchal classification of logistic centers, terminals and activities in the city. Urban development and land use of the city at eastern edge are mostly dominated by logistics industry. Location strategies and concentration patterns of 64 logistics companies and their relative influence on urban land use are investigated. Location criteria for the companies are: availability of physical infrastructure, logistics service capacity and possibilities of development. Logistics terminals, truck arks and warehouses are concentrated on the eastern part of the city. Compared to other factors, land availability, accessibility to highway are regarded as most significant factors of location. Finally, companies are classified into three groups according to capacity utilization performances, improvement strategies and location preferences. Land use and location of logistics activities are related to firm strategies. Research findings show three strategies: increasing rates of capacity utilization, technology and capacity improvement and new investment. |
| Keywords: | logistics; trade; urban development; cluster |
| JEL: | R12 R14 |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa14p157&r=tre |
| By: | Edmund Amann; Werner Baer; Thomas Trebat; Juan M. Villa |
| Abstract: | Infrastructural issues have moved to the very heart of the policy agenda in Brazil, having been brought into focus by the build up to the FIFA World Cup and the 2016 Rio Olympics. This paper opens with a brief historical review of infrastructure in Brazil, beginning with the 19th Century and the rise of concession contracts and the subsequent decision to nationalize infrastructure and administer the sector through state enterprises throughout most of the 20th century. The analysis then focuses on the reversal of this policy in the late 20th and early 21st century and the decision to grant the private sector, through concession contracts and Public Private Partnerships, a major role in the development of new infrastructural projects and the takeover of existing assets. Following this overview, Section 2 examines contemporary infrastructure challenges facing Brazil and the success of attempts to address them. The first component of the section comprises an econometric analysis of the relationship between growth and infrastructural spending. The analysis hints at the constraints implied by recent patterns of infrastructural investment. The second component of this section sets the current infrastructural challenge in slightly broader context, taking into account issues such as quality and reliability of infrastructure. This section also considers the implications of relying on concession contracts to deal with infrastructure needs. Next, Section 3 reviews the implications of the PAC infrastructure investment program launched under the Lula administration, and continued under its successor, the Rousseff administration. We highlight the constraints - institutional, regulatory, financial and political - which have shaped the PAC’s evolution and which have prevented it from living fully up to expectations. Section 3 argues that the drivers of supply (as well as demand) for infrastructure are very complex and quite sector-specific. Bearing this in mind Section 4 aims to add depth to the analysis by reviewing in more detail the experiences of the urban transportation sector. The choice of this sector for enhanced focus stems in part from the strong relevance which, we feel, it has for other developing or emerging economies, notably in Africa. In addition, the social unrest which initiated in Brazil in mid-2013 has had, as its focus, concerns centering on urban transportation issues. The broader international relevance of Brazil’s experience - especially from an African perspective - forms the basis for the conclusions, set out in Section 5. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bwp:bwppap:iriba_wp10&r=tre |
| By: | Felis-Rota, Marta (Departamento de Análisis Económico: Teoría Económica e Historia Económica. Universidad Autónoma de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | During the second half of the 19th century transportation costs decreased sharply. Among the most notable technological advances that lead to the transportation revolution we find the arrival of the railways. This paper provides a quantitative analysis of the expansion of the railways at the time of the so-called First Globalization in European countries through a vector autoregressive analysis. Total mileage of the railways has been obtained through GIS software for every European country, via a long process of digitalization of historical atlases. Then the vector autoregressive analysis and the impulse-response functions show the interaction between railways and GDP. I find interactions going in both directions of the VAR, and that the persistence of the effects varies from country to country. Thanks to this method, we can compare differentiated patterns of development associated to idiosyncratic transportation revolutions in Europe. |
| Keywords: | VAR, railways, growth, comparative economic history |
| JEL: | C3 N13 R4 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uam:wpapeh:201401&r=tre |
| By: | Euijune Kim; Hyewon Shin |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to estimate impacts of core infrastructure investments in North Korea on South and North Koreas. The investment expenditures of core infrastructure projects in North Korea are calibrated as 9.35 billion US$ including highway, railroad and industrial complex. Since South and North Koreas are based on market and planned economies respectively, the Computable General Equilibrium model is applied to the economic analysis of South Korea and an Input-Output Model for that of North Korea. The base year for the analysis is year of 2007 due to the data availability of North Korea. The CGE model for Korean economy accounts for the economic behavior of producers and consumers on the real side economy, following the neoclassical elasticity approach such as market-clearing prices, the maximization of a firm¡¯s profit, and a household¡¯s utility. This paper finds that the annual total output of North Korea would increase by 20.30 billion US$ with investments on infrastructure projects. This could result in increases of GDP of Korea by 2.16 billion US$ as a construction effect and by 0.08 billion US$ as an operation effect on the annual average. |
| Keywords: | CGE Model; Regional Economies; Economic Impact; |
| JEL: | R13 |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa14p1512&r=tre |
| By: | Kristian Behrens; Mark Brown; Théophile Bougna |
| Abstract: | We study the determinants of agglomeration of Canadian manufacturing industries from 1990 to 2009. In so doing, we revisit the seminal contribution by Rosenthal and Strange (2001, "The determinants of agglomeration", J Urban Econ 50(2), 191?229) using a long panel and continuous measures of localization. We pay particular attention to the role of transporation costs ? constructed using extensive Canadian trucking microdata ? international trade exposure, and input sharing ? constructed using micro-geographic location patterns of plants. We find that between 1990 and 2009, industry localization has persistently fallen. The average degree of localization decreased by 36% within 10km, by 22.6% within 100km, and by 11.3% within 500km. Declining localization is associated with import competition, particularly from low wage countries, increasing transportation costs and the spreading out of upstream input suppliers and downstream demand for intermediate inputs. While we find strong evidence of trade-driven changes in localization, we find less evidence for knowledge spillovers and labour market pooling as drivers in changes in localization. |
| JEL: | R12 R30 L11 |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa14p32&r=tre |