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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Franckx, Laurent; Michiels, Hans; Mayeres, Inge |
| Abstract: | We estimate a discrete-continuous model of vehicle demand and use for the Belgian region of Flanders, combining the results of the official regional travel survey with a detailed database of vehicle characteristics. The overall predictive value of the submodel predicting the number of vehicles owned by each household is satisfying, and in line with expectations. However, existing data turn out to be relatively poor predictors of the vehicle class owned by households and of the annual mileage per vehicle. We argue that the current travel survey focuses on determinants of travel in the peak periods. In order to predict overall travel demand, future versions of the travel survey should identify indicators with a higher predictive value for travel behavior for other than commuting purposes. |
| Keywords: | vehicle choice, discrete-continuous choice modelling |
| JEL: | C25 H23 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2014–08–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:58113&r=tre |
| By: | Schneider, M.; Stenger, A.; Goeke, D. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:62382&r=tre |
| By: | Yuri Yevdokimov |
| Abstract: | Climate change has become one of the most serious consequences of human activities. According to the IPCC Fourth assessment report, the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) generated by human activities is the primary cause of the climate change and especially global warming. In general, transportation is one of the areas where climate change problem is the most severe. On the one hand, with passage of time vehicle usage will result in more greenhouse gases, which would contribute to further climate change; on the other hand, climate change itself makes transportation infrastructure, vehicles and operations vulnerable to various impacts. Unfortunately, very little has been done in order to estimate economic losses due to climate change impacts on transportation. THis study tries to capture this gap.In this study, climate change impacts and their economic consequences for Atlantic Canada ground transportation network are analyzed. First, major climate change impacts in the area are identified. Second, the best economic model to evaluate consequences of the climate change impacts is chosen. Third, using the existing literature and studies that describe future climate changes in the region, various scenarios of future challenges for the regional ground transportation network are specified. Finally, economic consequences of the regional climate change impacts on the ground transportation network are evaluated. The above specified consequences are imposed on a dynamic general equilibrium model and their cumulative impacts are traced over time.Climate change impacts could reduce the volume of transpiration associated with analyzed regional network by 0.07 to 0.14 million vehicles per year compared to the current volume of 4.89 million. It could lead to the loss in value added by 11.136 million per year. |
| Keywords: | Atlantic Canada, General equilibrium modeling, Impact and scenario analysis |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6465&r=tre |
| By: | Christophe Heyndrickx; Stef Proost |
| Abstract: | In this paper we develop a model of the urban economy, where the commercial sub center of a city, goes in competition with a peripheral sub center. We consider both centers to be in a spatial asymmetric duopoly, where both centers need to compete for customers and employees. Competition takes the form of a joint price and quality competition, where the transport network and the accessibility of the center take a vital role. We approach quality from a ‘varieties’ stand-point, where consumers make a trade-off between accessibility, price and variety. We study under which circumstances, peripheral shopping activity can be beneficial and under which circumstances harmful to the city. We consider the impact of the accessibility, both by private as by public transport. We also go deeper into the effect of a number of specific policy scenarios that are used to reduce the impact of peripheral shopping activity. The particular case we will focus on is the development of a large shopping center called U-Place, which will be constructed along the ring road of Brussels. The development of this center is controversial and the subject of intense debate between the local and national government. This paper starts with presenting a theoretical model of the urban region, using elements of general equilibrium modelling and New Economic Geography (NEG). The results is a flexible model for the location of shopping centers around (or in) urban areas. The model takes quality & variety, accessibility of the city and suburban region and the transport network as the main parameters. In a next step, the model is applied to the city of Brussels, where a number of new developments are planned around the ringroad (R0). We study the impact of these new developments by a simple applied spatial general equilibrium model, based on the theoretical model & actual data for Brussels. We comment on the new development and give insight in the short term and longer term impacts.- Theoretical model for development of shopping centers around urban areas using elements of New Economic Geography & variety based competition. - Critical analysis of the impact of new developments on the ring road of Brussels |
| Keywords: | Belgium, General equilibrium modeling, Regional modeling |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6805&r=tre |
| By: | Christophe Heyndrickx; Joko Purwanto; Rodric Frederix |
| Abstract: | This work is based on 2 working papers, produced within the NEUJOBS project (www.neujobs.eu). We studied the impact of a number of transport policies in the EU, focussing on the interaction of transport with the labour market. The objective was to determine: - if policies towards promoting sustainable transport have a positive impact on net job creation. - if so, which policies or combination of policies are the most effective in stimulating the labour market and for what reasons - in which EU countries the impacts were the largest - the impact of demographic changes and resource scarcity on the sustainability of transport. In the project this is called: 'a socio-ecological transition'. - the contribution of each policy to reducing the social and environmental externality of transport The results we present are based on a set of model runs with the EDIP model (Ivanova O., Heyndrickx C et al, 2007) which was developed in the REFIT project (part of the EU FP6 framework program). The EDIP model is a Computable General Equilibrium model for Europe, covering each country of the EU 28 and Switzerland, Norway and Turkey. We combine literature review on the marginal impact of transport policy on net job creation & growth in GDP, with model runs and scenario analysis. The reference year for the scenario analysis is 2030. The scenarios take into account a number of demographic changes, rise in the price of resources & fuels and technological change. We make a detailed analysis for 8 EU countries (AT, BE, DE, FI, ES, BG, PL, IT) and a more general analysis of the impact for the full EU.We find that 1) Policies aiming at improving the sustainability of transport can have a positive impact on employment, while reducing the external cost of transport. This is most clear with policies towards improving transport efficiency & internalization of external costs. 2) Fuel efficiency & especially the introduction of electric vehicles are not affecting the job market positively, as was claimed in other studies. 3) The relative impact of the proposed transport policies is about 3 times larger in the Eastern European countries, when measured in an FTE / million euro equivalent. 4) The impact of transit development on GDP is much lower that claimed in some VAR based studies |
| Keywords: | Full EU 28 & detailed analysis for AT, BE, DE, FI, ES, BG, PL, IT, General equilibrium modeling, Labor market issues |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6801&r=tre |
| By: | VAN DE VOORDE, Eddy; VERHOEVEN, Patrick |
| Abstract: | The activities of a port authority form but one of several factors that can contribute to the competitiveness of a port. A port authority can increase its contribution by optimising the various functions it performs in a facilitating and entrepreneurial manner. Port authority reform matters in that it must set the right governance framework for port authorities to achieve their full potential contribution to the competitiveness of their ports. The objective of this paper is to complement existing literature and empirical research on the role of port authorities with a theoretical perspective on how to measure the specific economic impact of port authority reform and understand the process of reform and post-reform governance. The paper outlines a comprehensive analytical framework to assess both elements in a quantitative and qualitative manner. The centrepiece of the framework is based on welfare economics concepts. It introduces a methodology based on techniques of cost-benefit analysis and generalised costs to measure the economic impact of port authority reform on the competitiveness of a port. The application of the framework for ex-post evaluation will allow policy-makers to identify areas of further improvement and will offer useful insights for those envisaging new reform schemes. |
| Keywords: | Port reform, Port authorities, Port governance, Port competitiveness, Welfare economics, Generalised cost |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ant:wpaper:2014017&r=tre |
| By: | Thanet Wattanakul |
| Abstract: | Thailand and the Laos PDR have a very long border of 1,810 kilometers which has been involved with international economic transactions in terms of trade, investment, tourism and passenger transportation over a long period. There are 36 custom check points allowing passenger transportation between the two countries by international bus, train, car, or private hire van. The trend of passenger transportation has recently increased because of the rise of tourists and investors as well as the supporting promotion policy of both countries particularly for the passenger transportation business. The growth of this business can be attributed to the capacity of Nong Khai province with respect to tourist attractions and destinations, food, culture and the natural environment. Therefore, it is very interesting to examine and estimate the passenger transportation demand model in order to investigate the impact of the variables that determine the model. This study also proposes policies that could enhance the effectiveness of entrepreneurs’ strategies. Moreover, the results of this study can be used as guidelines for both entrepreneurs and related government organisations. This study aims to explore the impact of factors influencing passenger transportation demand via estimating the passenger transportation demand model. The appropriate combination estimation techniques are used. The study period was between July 2007and June 2010 and monthly data was used to estimate the model. The data used to develop in this study has been mainly obtained from the Bank of Thailand data base, the annual report of the entrepreneurs, the interview and International Financial Statistics from the IMF. The sample and data covered only the two countries in the Mekong Sub-region according to the objectives of the study. Moreover, the data is both time series and non-time series data. Therefore, it can be affirmed that the data used to construct and estimate the econometric model is suitable. The following linear model was constructed based on the general passenger transportation demand. The variables were developed to suit the passenger transportation between Thailand and Laos. ..................................(1) Where: Qa is the total number of passengers who use the service provided (people/month) Pa is the fee paid by customers who use international bus service to travel from Nong Khai to Vientiane deflated by public transportation price (2007 base year, baht/person) Pb is the fee paid by customers who use the regular bus service to travel from Nong Khai to Vientiane deflated by public transportation price (2007 base year, baht/person) GDP is the gross domestic product of Thailand (as 1998 constant price, million baht) EX is the exchange rate (Baht/Kip) HO is the number of holidays in each month consisting of weekends and special occasion holidays TR is the frequency of service obtained from the service schedule From equation (1) above, it can be stated that all the independent variables determine and influence the passenger transportation demand that is represented by total number of passenger who use the service provided (Qa). Additionally, the price of substitute goods is combined in the equation (1) that is expressed by Pb that is consistent with general demand theory. According to equation (1), the linear function can be written in the linear econometric modelling form as follows: …………… (2) Where: 0 is the constant term 1 - 6 is the coefficient of each independent variable t is the error term 5.2) Justification of the Model Estimation Methods The model estimation methods undertaken have to be appropriate in order to propose the results as well as policy implications and recommendations are plausible. As a consequence, it is needed to conduct multi steps and estimation techniques by following. 5.2.1) The Unit Root Test 5.2.2) The Co-integration Test 5.2.3) The Coefficient Test 5.2.4) The Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) Test 6.1) Unit Root Test It can be explained that for all independent variables, the stationary level of time series data used in the estimated model needed to be tested first via the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test. This technique is an appropriate method of checking the mean and variance of data. The first order stationary level or I(0) has three different model testing formats: 1) No intercept and no trend equation 2) Only intercept equation 3) Both intercept and trend equation The comparison result between ADF t-Statistic and McKinnon critical value has to be considered to accept or reject the null hypothesis that each independent variable has no unit root or stationary. The empirical comparison result above found that the null hypothesis can be accepted and that the stationary of almost independent time series variable is the same level because of the ADF t-Statistic is lower than the McKinnon critical value at different level of significance of 0.01, 0.05 and 0.10 respectively. Nevertheless, there are some independent variables which rejected the null hypothesis but accepted the alternative hypothesis consisting of HO and TR. The alternative hypothesis showed that there are both intercept and trend variables in the estimated model at 99% of the significance level. The above mentioned independent variables had to be tested to make all independent variables at the same stationary level. The higher stationary level was tested by using the first different order estimation technique to obtain the most accurate and reliable empirical results possible. This procedure revealed that all independent variables are stationary at the same level of the first different order or I(1). The different levels of significance of 0.01, 0.05 and 0.10 are used to support this claim. 6.2) Co-integration Test For the next step, the long-term relationship of the time series data was tested by using a co-integration process of the Engle and Granger test consisting of the following procedures: Firstly, the residuals of error term (t ) obtained from an estimated equation using OLS had to be taken to test the stationary level of the total number of customers who used the service (Qa) as well as other independent variables. The integration of zero order or unit root test by using ADF test was then calculated. The final step was to take the residual from the estimated equation by OLS to test the stationary level via the same process. Regarding the empirical results, it can be stated that the ADF test is less than the McKinnon critical value at a significant level of 0.01. As a consequence, it can be concluded that the error term has the stationary characteristic or integration of order zero or I(0). Therefore, the total number of passengers who used the international transportation service between Thailand and Laos (Qa) has a long-term equilibrium relationship with each independent variable. However, the multicollinearity can be detected by considering the correlation coefficient of two independent variables of Pa and Pb that is equal to 0.9998. Consequently, the independent variable of substitute good (Pb) can be deleted from the estimated equation. Furthermore, the first conclusion that can be drawn is that the independent variables Pa and Pb are nearly perfect substitute goods, which is consistent with demand theory. 6.3) Coefficient Test The next step after the co-integration process was coefficient testing in order to detect any heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation problems. Heteroskedasticity were tested by co-integration estimation results and autocorrelation problems were tested by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) statistic. The outcome was that no problems were detected. It can be implied that the total number of passengers (Qa) has a long-term equilibrium relationship with all independent variables. This relationship can be written as follows: (1.73)* (3.14)*** (-2.66)** (1.10) (2.07)* = 0.53 = 0.40 = 17,551.96 = 2.30 = 0.011** Note: 1. *** is statistic level of significance at 1% (0.01) 2. ** is statistic level of significance at 5% (0.05) 3. The number in blanket is t-statistic From the equation above, it can be explained that the total number of passengers from Thailand to Laos (Qa) has a positive relationship with the fee (Pa), the frequency of service provided (TR) and the GDP. On the other hand, the total number of passengers from Thailand to Laos (Qa) has a negative relationship with the exchange rate (EX). 6.4) Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) Test The ECM is a mechanism that enables an examination of the short-term equilibrium adjustment process. Therefore, the error equilibrium adjustment term is the linkage between short-term and long-term adjustment mechanism. This mechanism and linkage can be expressed as the following equation. A change of the total number of passengers using the transportation service between Thailand and Laos influences the change of fee (Pa), the frequency of service provided (TR) and the GDP in the same positive direction. However, a change in the total number of passengers influences the exchange rate (EX) and the number of holidays (HO) in the opposite direction. The negative coefficient of error correction term is consistent with the equilibrium adjustment theory. According to this theory, the value of error will be much lower leading to an adjustment for long-term equilibrium. It can be stated that the speed of adjustment to the long-term equilibrium is -46.27% if there are situations that influence the total number of passengers that deviate from equilibrium in each period. The Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation LM test is used to test and accept the hypothesis that there no autocorrelation occurred. |
| Keywords: | Thailand and Loas PDR, Trade issues, Regional modeling |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6480&r=tre |
| By: | Kenmei Tsubota; Satoru Kumagai; Kazunobu Hayakawa; Ikumo Isono; Souknilanh Keola |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of trade cost reduction on the Asian economy by employing a sub-national level model based on New Economic Geography. Our model comprises seven sectors, including manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, and 1,715 regions in 18 countries/economies in Asia in addition to the two economies of the US and the European Union. As a Computable General Equilibrium of New Economic Geography, we have developed a simulation model for multi-region and multi-sector that consists of the agriculture sector, five manufacturing sectors and the service sector. We assume that there are increasing returns to scale in manufacturing and service sectors. We have introduced modal choice and separation of trade costs respect to physical and non-physical infrastructure. While physical infrastructure improvements are expected to have a drastic impact on the distribution of economic activities, we found that the positive effects of physical transport infrastructure improvements are rather limited to the neighboring regions of the projects and that the existing concentrations of economic activities are rather persistent. Furthermore, we also find that, besides the ongoing physical transport infrastructure improvements, further trade facilitation or tackling behind-the-border issues among countries could enhance the prevalence of economic growth in each country. |
| Keywords: | Bangladesh, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Lao PDR, Macao, Myanmar, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam with rest of the world, Regional modeling, Impact and scenario analysis |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5006&r=tre |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Poverty Reduction - Rural Poverty Reduction Transport Economics Policy and Planning Housing and Human Habitats Social Development - Social Accountability Culture and Development - Anthropology Communities and Human Settlements Transport |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:19317&r=tre |
| By: | S. Franceschini; G. Marletto |
| Abstract: | Participation is advocated as an essential component of strategies and policies for sustainable urban mobility. This paper refers to the overall literature on participation and provides the design, test and ex-post evaluation of a deliberative-participative procedure (DPP) aimed at selecting a new scheme for the regulation of traffic and parking in the “Murat”, a central area of Bari (Italy). The potential benefits and shortcomings of participation were explicitly considered when designing a DPP which integrates three tools - an opinion poll and two deliberative arenas – the “stakeholder dialogue” and the “citizens jury”. The ex-post evaluation of the test confirmed ex-ante design choices. The use of understandable techniques for deliberation and assessment helped participants to generate an unambiguous final result which was based on the “hybridisation” of the alternative schemes proposed to participants at the beginning of the procedure. The continuous reference to citizens opinion avoided that more powerful stakeholders may capture the whole procedure. Only a “frustration” effect was generated because of the limited involvement of the Municipality of Bari, thus confirming that the involvement of the relevant Authority is an essential requisite for successful participation. We suggest that the generation of new knowledge and learning could be further assured by the participation of citizens and stakeholders to the definition of the alternatives they will assess later. |
| Keywords: | Deliberation, participation, Sustainable mobility, Traffic scheme, Bari |
| JEL: | H43 Q58 R42 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:201408&r=tre |
| By: | Normizan Bakar |
| Abstract: | To analyse the optimal landlocked and coastal countries' policies in an international imperfect competition. In particular the model shows the rivalry condition of the landlocked country's firm and coastal country's firm. In addition, we incorporates the interdependent condition of the landlocked country on its coastal seaport.The model assumes the three-stage game of international duopolists where; At first stage governments determine the trade policies; at the second stage governments determine the transport policies;and at the third stage the firms determine the price.The transport policy, i.e. toll fee by the coastal country (transit country) is positive. |
| Keywords: | landlocked countries, Trade issues, Other issues |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:6004&r=tre |
| By: | Gorecki, Paul |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:rb2014/2/5&r=tre |