|
on Transport Economics |
| By: | Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt; Kristoffer Moeller; Nicolai Wendland |
| Abstract: | To analyze the mutually dependent relationship between local economic performance and the demand for and supply of transport services, we employ the structural panel VAR method that is popular in the macroeconomic literature, but which has not previously been applied to the modeling of within-city dynamics of transportation. We focus on a within-city panel of Berlin, Germany, during the heyday of the construction of its dense public transit network (1880-1914). Our results suggest that economic outcomes and supply of transport infrastructure mutually determine each other. Both transport demand and supply seem to be driven more by firms than by residents. |
| Keywords: | Transport, land use, Berlin, history, panel vector, autoregression |
| JEL: | R12 R14 R41 N73 N74 |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:sercdp:0158&r=tre |
| By: | Olivier Brette (INSA Lyon; CNRS Environnement Ville Société (EVS); University of Lyon); Thomas Buhler (University of Franche-Comté; CNRS ThéMA); Nathalie Lazaric (GREDEG CNRS; University of Nice Sophia Antipolis); Kevin Marechal (Université Libre de Bruxelles, CESSE-ULB; Belgian National Fund for Research (FNRS)) |
| Abstract: | This paper adds to the growing empirical evidence on the importance of habits in governing human behaviour, and sheds new light on individual inertia in relation to transportation behaviour. An enriched perspective rooted in Veblenian evolutionary economics (VEE) is used to construct a theoretical framework in order to analyse the processes at play in the formation and reinforcement of habits. The empirical study explores more specifically the synchronic processes strengthening the car-using habit. In addition to underlining the shortcomings of a ‘decision theory’ perspective to address urban transportation behaviours, we find that synchronic habits can have a significant effect on behavioural inertia. Our results suggest the existence of positive feedback between the development of synchronic habits, qualitative perceptions of driving times and reinforcement of the car-using habit. The paper points out also that the diachronic dimension of habits would constitute another promising domain for further research on behavioural inertia in transportation. |
| Keywords: | Habit, Behaviour, Urban transportation, Mode choice, Synchronic, Diachronic |
| JEL: | B52 D01 D11 D12 R40 R49 |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2014-10&r=tre |
| By: | Békès, G.; Fontagné, L.; Murakozy, B.; Vicard, V. |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes how firms adjust to differences in market size and demand uncertainty by changing the frequency and size of their export shipments. In our inventory model, transportation costs and optimal shipment frequency are determined on the basis of demand as well as inventory and per shipments costs. Using a cross section of detailed monthly firm-product-destination level French export data we show that, in line with the predictions of the model, firms adjust on both margins for market size. In a stochastic setting, increased demand uncertainty is associated with larger logistics costs as well as a more convex marginal cost function. Firms adjust to increased uncertainty by reducing their sales and, for a given export volume, by reducing their number of shipments and increasing their shipment size. We show that these predictions of the model are in line with patterns in the data. |
| Keywords: | Gravity; Transport costs; Frequency of trade; Inventory model; Firms. |
| JEL: | D40 F12 R40 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:479&r=tre |
| By: | Daniel Huppmann; Ruud Egging |
| Abstract: | Assessing and quantifying the impacts of technological, economic, and policy shifts in the global energy system requires large-scale numerical models. We propose a dynamic multi-fuel market equilibrium model that combines endogenous fuel substitution within demand sectors and in power generation, detailed infrastructure capacity constraints and investment, as well as strategic behaviour and market power aspects by suppliers in a unified framework. This model is the first of its kind in which market power is exerted across several fuels. Using a dataset based on the IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 (New Policies scenario, time horizon 2010-2050, 30 regions, 10 fuels), we illustrate the functionality of the model in two scenarios: a reduction of shale gas availability in the US relative to current projections leads to an even stronger increase of power generation from natural gas in the European Union relative to the base case; this is due to a shift in global fossil fuel trade. In the second scenario, a tightening of the EU ETS emission cap by 80% in 2050 combined with a stronger bio-fuel mandate spawns a renaissance of nuclear power after 2030 and a strong electrification of the transportation sector. We observe carbon leakage rates from the unilateral mitigation effort of 60-70 %. |
| Keywords: | Energy system model, infrastructure investment, strategic behaviour, mixed complementarity problem (MCP), generalized Nash equilibrium (GNE) |
| JEL: | Q41 C61 D43 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1370&r=tre |