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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Börjesson, Maria (KTH); Jonsson , Daniel (KTH); Berglund, Svante (WSP); Almström , Peter (WSP) |
| Abstract: | Cost-Benefit analysis (CBA) is sometimes criticized for not taking account of induced demand due to planning policy or relocalization triggered by large infrastructure investments. There is also a notion among planers and decision makers that accounting for these effects can underestimate the relative merits of rail investments. In this paper we explore if induced demand from relocalization triggered by an infrastructure investment have any significant impact on the CBA outcome. A second aim is to investigate the robustness of the relative CBA ranking of rail and road investments with respect to the general planning policy in the region 25 years ahead. We use a large-scale integrated land-use and traffic model calibrated for the Stockholm region. We find that the induced demand from relocalization triggered by infrastructure investments has a very limited impact on the CBA outcome. This result is largely due to the fact that the population that relocates over 20-30 years is limited in comparison to the total population. Moreover, the uncertainty in the CBA outcome, and in particular the relative ranking of rail and road investments, caused by uncertainties in future land-use policies is limited. As expected, however, the CBA outcome of rail investments is to a larger extent dependent on stronger planning policy than road investments. The results underscores that the planning policy in the region have a considerably stronger impact on accessibility and total car use than individual road or rail investments. Only the largest road investment, a second bypass in the region, induces car use of the same magnitude as the impact of the planning policy in the region. |
| Keywords: | Cost-Benefit Analysis; Transport planning; Land-use planning |
| JEL: | C25 D61 J22 R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2013–10–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2013_032&r=tre |
| By: | Aileen Lam (Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research, Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge) |
| Abstract: | Transport is the only sector in the EU in which greenhouse gas emissions are still rising. This paper uses the FTT (future technology transformation) framework to project energy use and emissions from passenger cars in the EU 27 until 2050. Projections are made based on four policy scenarios in order to explore the effect of different policies on penetration and diffusion of cleaner transport technologies. All our scenario projections support the dominance of hybrid cars in 2050. However, our results illustrate that strong emission targets cannot be achieved by only encouraging low-emitting cars, but requires strong policies targeting the cleanest cars. Further emission reductions can be achieved by non-pecuniary measures such as car use reductions and scrappage schemes. |
| Keywords: | Transport, Technological change, Emissions, Fuel use |
| JEL: | O33 O38 R41 |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ccc:wpaper:005&r=tre |
| By: | Bergström, Anna (Dept. of Economics); Krüger, Niclas (Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the lack of reliability within the Swedish rail network by identifying passenger train delay distributions. Arrival delays are analyzed in detail using data provided by the Swedish Transport Administration, covering all train departures and arrivals during 2008 and 2009. The paper identifies vulnerabilities by size, space and time in the network. Our results show that the delay distribution seems to be plagued by low probability high impact events. A major share of all delay time is associated with the tail of the delay distribution, indicating that extreme delays cannot be neglected when prioritizing between measures improving rail infrastructure. Delays are not only concentrated in size, but also concentrated in space and time and seem to follow a precise power law with respect to days and an exponential distribution with regard to stations. Moreover, we also examine the link between capacity usage and expected delay over different time scales. |
| Keywords: | Delay; Reliability; Passenger trains; Delay distribution; Value of time; Cost-benefit analysis |
| JEL: | H54 R42 |
| Date: | 2013–11–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:kaunek:0010&r=tre |
| By: | Remi Jedwab; Alexander Moradi |
| Abstract: | What is the impact of modern transportation technology on long-run economic change in poor countries with high trade costs? Rail construction in colonial Sub-Saharan Africa provides a natural experiment: 90% of African railroad lines were built before independence, in a context where headloading was the dominant transportation technology. Using new data on railroads and cities over one century within one country, Ghana, and Africa as a whole, we find large permanent effects of transportation technology on economic development. First, colonial railroads had strong effects on commercial agriculture and urban growth before independence. We exploit various identification strategies to ensure these effects are causal. Second, using the fact that African railroads fell largely out of use post-independence, due to mismanagement and lack of maintenance, we show that colonial railroads had a persistent impact on cities. While colonial sunk investments (e.g., schools, hospitals and roads) partly contributed to urban path dependence, evidence suggests that railroad cities persisted because their early emergence served as a mechanism to coordinate contemporary investments for each subsequent period. Railroad cities are also wealthier than non-railroad cities of similar sizes today. This suggests a world where shocks to economic geography can trigger an equilibrium in which cities will emerge to facilitate the accumulation of factors, and thus have long-term effects on economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Transportation Technology; Development; Path Dependence; Growth |
| JEL: | R4 R1 O1 O3 N97 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2013-17&r=tre |
| By: | Shindell, Drew T. |
| Abstract: | The author presents a multi-impact economic valuation framework called the Social Cost of Atmospheric Release (SCAR) that extends the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) used previously for carbon dioxide (CO2) to a broader range of pollutants and impacts. Values consistently incorporate health and agricultural impacts of air quality along with climate damages. The latter include damages associated with aerosol-induced hydrologic cycle changes that lead to net climate benefits when reducing cooling aerosols. Evaluating a 1% reduction in current global emissions, benefits with a high discount rate are greatest for reductions of sulfur dioxide (SO2), followed by co-emitted products of incomplete combustion (PIC) and then CO2 and methane. With a low discount rate, benefits are greatest for CO2 reductions, and are nearly equal to the total from SO2, PIC and methane. These results suggest that efforts to mitigate atmosphere-related environmental damages should target a broad set of emissions including CO2, methane and aerosols. Illustrative calculations indicate environmental damages are $150-510 billion per year for current US electricity generation (~6-20¢ per kWh for coal, ~2-11¢ for gas) and $0.73±0.34 per gallon of gasoline ($1.20±0.70 per gallon for diesel). These results suggest that total atmosphere-related environmental damages plus generation costs are greater for coal-fired power than other sources, and damages associated with gasoline vehicles exceed those for electric vehicles. -- |
| Keywords: | environmental economics,valuation,air pollution,climate,government policy |
| JEL: | Q51 Q53 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201356&r=tre |
| By: | Bruce A. Babcock (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD)); Sebastien Pouliot (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD)) |
| Abstract: | The Environmental Protection Agency is poised to release its draft rule for mandated volumes of biofuels for 2014. Earlier this year, EPA indicated that it understood that a limited demand for biofuels, particularly for ethanol, conflicts with the scheduled mandated volumes written in the law. To date, mandates for ethanol have been met with a gasoline blend that contains no more than 10 percent ethanol, referred to as E10. However, mandated volumes for ethanol are scheduled to exceed 10 percent of total gasoline consumption so new marketing channels will need to be developed to meet expanded mandates. Thus, the so-called E10 blend wall presents a real challenge to EPA. |
| Date: | 2013–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ias:cpaper:13-pb15&r=tre |
| By: | Koesler, Simon |
| Abstract: | We investigate the rebound effect of a 10% energy cefficiency improvement in the provision of private transport services by German households. In the process, we take into account that household behaviour may be influenced by habits, build on a detailed representation of the provision of private transport services, and disentangle the direct and indirect rebound effect. Our analysis shows that rebound has the potential to significantly reduce the expected energy savings of an energy efficiency improvement at households. In particular if households have a flexible demand structure, rebound can erode large parts of efficiency increases. Household habits have an initial detrimental effect on rebound. They limit the ability of households to adapt to changes in the prevailing price and income system and therewith temporally block parts of the channels that lead to rebound. In the long run, however, if habits are formed on the basis of historic consumption, habits do not affect rebound. In isolation, the direct and indirect rebound effect of the efficiency shock are positive, but direct rebound is much stronger. -- |
| Keywords: | rebound,efficiency improvement,energy efficiency,habits |
| JEL: | D13 D58 Q41 Q43 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:13082&r=tre |
| By: | VAN HASSEL, Edwin |
| Abstract: | De drogeladingvloot in de binnenvaart is van 2007 tot 2013 zeer sterk toegenomen in laadcapaciteit (+20%), terwijl de hoeveelheid vervoerde vracht is afgenomen ten opzichte van 2008 (-10%). In dit artikel wordt uiteengezet hoe deze toename aan capaciteit is ontstaan en er wordt er aangegeven wat de tekortkomingen zijn aan de huidige structuur in de sector. Vervolgens wordt een oplossing geschetst om de overcapaciteit van de grote droge ladingschepen te doen afnemen. Ook wordt er een oplossing gegeven om de structuur van dit segment van de drogeladingvloot aan te passen, zodat de sector geprofessionaliseerd wordt en meer toekomstbestendig wordt gemaakt. |
| Keywords: | Binnenvaart, Drogeladingvloot, Samenwerking, Poolvorming, Overcapaciteit |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ant:wpaper:2013025&r=tre |