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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Kang, Jee Eun |
| Abstract: | This dissertation focuses on the integration of the Household Activity Pattern Problem (HAPP) with various locational decisions considering both supply and demand sides. We present several methods to merge these two distinct areas—transportation infrastructure and travel demand procedures—into an integrated framework that has been previously exogenously linked by feedback or equilibrium processes. From the demand side, travel demand for non-primary activities is derived from the destination choices that a traveler makes that minimizes travel disutility within the context of considerations of daily scheduling and routing. From the supply side, the network decisions are determined as an integral function of travel demand rather than a given fixed OD matrix. First, the Location Selection Problem for the Household Activity Pattern Problem (LSP-HAPP) is developed. LSP-HAPP extends the HAPP by adding the capability to make destination choices simultaneously with other travel decisions of household activity allocation, activity sequence, and departure time. Instead of giving a set of pre-fixed activity locations to visit, LSPxviii HAPP chooses the location for certain activity types given a set of candidate locations. A dynamic programming algorithm is adopted and further developed for LSP-HAPP in order to deal with the choices among a sizable number of candidate locations within the HAPP modeling structure. Potential applications of synthetic pattern generation based on LSP-HAPP formulation are also presented. Second, the Location – Household Activity Pattern Problem (Location-HAPP), a facility location problem with full-day scheduling and routing considerations is developed. This is in the category of Location-Routing Problems (LRPs), where the decisions of facility location models are influenced by possible vehicle routings. Location-HAPP takes the set covering model as a location strategy, and HAPP as the scheduling and routing tool. The proposed formulation isolates each vehicle’s routing problem from those of other vehicles and from the master set covering problem. A modified column generation that uses a search method to find a column with a negative reduced price is proposed. Third, the Network Design Problem is integrated with the Household Activity Pattern Problem (NDP-HAPP) as a bilevel optimization problem. The bilevel structure includes an upper level network design while the lower level includes a set of disaggregate household itinerary optimization problems, posed as HAPP or LSP-HAPP. The output of upper level NDP (level-ofservice of the transportation network) becomes input data for the lower level HAPP that generates travel demand which becomes the input for the NDP. This is advantageous over the conventional NDP that outputs the best set of links to invest in, given an assumed OD matrix. Because the proposed NDP-HAPP can output the same best set of links, a new OD matrix and a detailed temporal distribution of activity participation and travel are created. A decomposed xix heuristic solution algorithm that represents each decision makers’ rationale shows optimality gaps of as much as 5% compared to exact solutions when tested with small examples. Utilizing the aforementioned models, two transportation sustainability studies are then conducted for the adoption of Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs). The challenges in adopting AFVs are directly related to the transportation infrastructure problems since the initial AFV refueling locations will need to provide comparable convenient travel experience for the early adopters when compared to the already matured gasoline fuel based transportation infrastructure. This work demonstrates the significance of the integration between travel demand model and infrastructure problems, but also draws insightful policy measurements regarding AFV adoption. The first application study attempts to measure the household inconvenience level of operating AFVs. Two different scenarios are examined from two behavioral assumptions – keeping currently reported pattern and minimizing the inconvenience cost through HAPPR or HAPPC. From these patterns, the personal or household inconvenience level is derived as compared to the original pattern, providing quantified data on how the public sector would compensate for the increases in travel disutility to ultimately encourage the attractiveness of AFVs. From the supply side of the AFV infrastructure, Location-HAPP is applied to the incubation of the minimum refueling infrastructure required to support early adoption of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (HFCVs). One of the early adoption communities targeted by auto manufacturers is chosen as the study area, and then three different values of accessibility are tested and measured in terms of tolerances to added travel time. Under optimal conditions, refueling trips are found to be toured with other activities. More importantly, there is evidence xx that excluding such vehicle-infrastructure interactions as well as routing and scheduling interactions can result in over-estimation of minimum facility requirement. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, household activity pattern problem |
| Date: | 2013–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt3sb124zz&r=tre |
| By: | Fadaei Oshyani , Masoud (KTH); Sundberg , Marcus (KTH); Karlström , Anders (KTH) |
| Abstract: | Data sources using new technology such as the Geographical Positioning System are increasingly available. In many different applications, it is important to predict the average speed on all the links in a network. The purpose of this study is to estimate the link speed in a network using sparse GPS data set. Average speed is consistently estimated using Indirect Inference approach. In the end, the Monte Carlo evidence is provided to show that the results are consistent with parameter estimates. |
| Keywords: | Travel time; Sparse GPS data; Indirect inference; Map matching; Route choice. |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2013–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2013_012&r=tre |
| By: | Bae, Yong-Kyun |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the offsetting effect theory, using individual-level accident data to analyze how drivers respond to seat-belt laws. I find that drivers drive their vehicles more carefully when more stringent seat-belt laws are in effect. I also find that careful driving is not associated with pedestrian involvement in accidents. Using synthetic panel data, I find that the change in the laws results in an increased number of careful drivers and a decreased number of careless drivers in accidents. The results show that the offsetting effects are weaker than expected or may not exist in accidents. |
| Keywords: | Offsetting Behavior, Safety Regulation, Seat Belt Laws, Vehicle Accidents |
| JEL: | D01 L51 L91 |
| Date: | 2013–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:49823&r=tre |
| By: | Eliasson, Jonas; Fosgerau, Mogens |
| Abstract: | A number of highly cited papers by Flyvbjerg and associates have shown that ex ante infrastructure appraisals tend to be overly optimistic. Ex post evaluations indicate a bias where investment costs are higher and benefits lower on average than predicted ex ante. These authors argue that the bias must be attributed to intentional misrepresentation by project developers. This paper shows that the bias may arise simply as a selection bias, without there being any bias at all in predictions ex ante, and that such a bias is bound to arise whenever ex ante predictions are related to the decisions whether to implement projects. Using a database of projects we present examples indicating that the selection bias may be substantial. The examples also indicate that benefit-cost ratios remains a useful selection criterion even when cost and benefits are highly uncertain, gainsaying the argument that such uncertainties render cost-benefit analyses useless. |
| Keywords: | cost overruns; cost escalation; forecast accuracy; cost-benefit analysis; appraisal; selection bias; winner’s curse |
| JEL: | H4 H43 L2 R4 R42 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:49744&r=tre |
| By: | McArthur, David Philip (Dept. of Health Management and Health Economics, University of Oslo); Thorsen, Inge (Dept. of Economics, Stord/Haugesund University College); Ubøe, Jan (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we propose a new spatial equilibrium model, and use it to discuss issues related to rural depopulation. The discussion focuses on how investments in transport infrastructure and the spatial distribution of basic sector jobs can promote a relatively balanced growth of peripheral and central areas of a region. Through interdependencies in individual migration decisions and an economic base multiplier mechanism, negative exogenous shocks may take a peripheral zone beyond a bifurcation point, into an equilibrium of dramatically lower population and employment. We study how the location of bifurcation points depend on spatial interaction behavioural parameters and variables subject to regional policy. We also discuss the issue of the timing of interventions intended to prevent a process of rural depopulation. |
| Keywords: | Employment; transport infrastructure; rural depopulation; spatial equilibrium model |
| JEL: | R00 R10 |
| Date: | 2013–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2013_009&r=tre |
| By: | Hua Wang (Euromed Marseille - École de management - Association Euromed Management - Marseille); Chris Kimble (Euromed Marseille - École de management - Association Euromed Management - Marseille, MRM - Montpellier Recherche en Management - Université Montpellier II - Sciences et techniques : EA4557 - Université Montpellier I - Université Paul Valéry - Montpellier III - Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School) |
| Abstract: | History provides numerous examples of incumbent market leaders being leapfrogged by newcomers that have exploited the opportunities offered by new technologies. In light of the growing number of ecological threats linked to the use of the internal combustion engine, can Chinese auto manufacturers, which are newcomers to the industry, beat out the established Japanese, European, and North American automakers in the race to produce a less environmentally damaging form of transport? Three case studies from the Chinese automobile industry reveal the different ways in which this leapfrogging might take place and highlight the impact that such developments might have on automobile manufacturers in Japan and the West, both for conventional and electric vehicles. |
| Keywords: | china; Leapfrogging; catching-up; Automobile Industry; Innovation |
| Date: | 2013–08–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00859483&r=tre |
| By: | Vítor Caldeirinha (Centro de Estudos de Gestão; School of Economics and Management (ISEG)); J. Augusto Felício (School of Economics and Management; Technical University of Lisbon); Andreia Dionísio (CEFAGE-UÉ, Évora University (UÉ)) |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to evaluate and understand the port sector senior managers’ perception relative to the influence of the port characteristics and specific container terminals in customers’ satisfaction. The SEM (Structural Equation Modelling) methodology is used to confirm the investigation model. The sample is composed by 151 valid responses, each one of them regarding a specific terminal of a set of 12 Portuguese and Spanish container terminals. The results confirm the influence of the port and container terminal characteristics in customer’s satisfaction. |
| Keywords: | Port characteristics; Container terminal; Customer’s satisfaction; SEM. |
| JEL: | R42 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfe:wpcefa:2013_14&r=tre |
| By: | Mike Tretheway; Kate Markhvida |
| Abstract: | The global airline industry is slowly returning to profitability, but there is a long and difficult road ahead. According to IATA, the industry raised a profit of $8 billion in 20112 and it is forecasted to make a profit of $11 billion in 2013.3 However, these improved profit margins continue to be razor thin – in the best of times the airline industry earns only a modest 1-2% net profit margin on revenue. Volatile fuel prices, economic downturns, impacts of terrorism and natural disasters (hurricanes, volcanic ash, tsunamis), pandemics and government austerity measures are among the key factors that will continue to affect airline profitability... |
| Date: | 2013–05–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaab:2013/15-en&r=tre |
| By: | Arne Beck; Heiner Bente; Martin Schilling |
| Abstract: | Railway efficiency is a topic of interest worldwide for railway managers operating in competitive markets and for fiscally strained governments. Several recent studies indicate that European railways differ in terms of their efficiency. Based on a comparison with some major non-European railway systems, our analysis provides further evidence that significant efficiency gaps exist. |
| Date: | 2013–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaab:2013/12-en&r=tre |