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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Edoardo Marcucci (Università degli Studi di Roma Tre) |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews a set of articles, based on stated preferences techniques, focusing on logistics managers' preferences for freight transport attributes with the intent of assessing the quality of knowledge applied research has produced, its reliability and transferability. Transport choices are relevant in a globalized economy where aggressive marketing strategies are often used to acquire a competitive advantage in the market. Freight transport modeling has been derived out of the classical four step approach developed for passenger transport. A new behavioral approach is progressively gaining popularity thanks to the specific behavioral focus it is based upon. The review performed indicates that there are some evident shortcomings in the way research has been performed so far but, at the same time, there is also a high potential if corrective actions are taken. In particular substantial improvements could be obtained by: 1) clearly defining research and reporting protocols; 2) define and circumscribe who has to be interviewed in the different freight contexts studied; 3) reporting the contractual relationships governing freight movements; 4) reporting freight details (e.g. volume, value, weight); 5) motivating the attribute selection method used. In summary, there is a need for systematizing the procedures and reporting adopted in applied research by introducing a much higher level of detail and rigor in both defying the object of measurement as well in the experimental design protocols employed. |
| Keywords: | Transport demand, Stated Preferences, Logistics. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rcr:wpaper:02_13&r=tre |
| By: | Philippe Crist; Jari Kauppila; José Vassallo; Butch Wlaschin |
| Abstract: | This paper lays out a framework for managing complex asset systems, such as road networks, with a view to optimising life-cycle value of the asset base. It is based on discussions at the International transport Forum Roundtable on Sustainable Road Funding held in Paris 25-26 October 20121 and includes inputs from the ITF working Group on Infrastructure Adaptation to Extreme Weather and Climate Change. |
| Date: | 2013–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaab:2013/13-en&r=tre |
| By: | Mogens Fosgerau (Technical University of Denmark and Centre for Transport Studies, Sweden); Kenneth Small (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine) |
| Abstract: | We seek to better understand the scheduling of activities in time through a dynamic model of commuting with congestion, in which workers care solely about leisure and consumption. Implicit preferences for the timing of the commute form endogenously due to concave preferences and temporal agglomeration economies. Equilibrium exists uniquely and is indistinguishable from that of a generalized version of the classical Vickrey bottleneck model, based on exogenous trip-timing preferences; but optimal policies differ: the Vickrey model will under-predict the benefits of congestion pricing, and such pricing may make people better off even without considering the use of revenues. |
| Keywords: | Urban congestion; Agglomeration; Endogenous preferences; scheduling preferences; Bottleneck |
| JEL: | D11 R41 |
| Date: | 2013–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irv:wpaper:131403&r=tre |
| By: | Burgess, Robin; Jedwab, Remi; Miguel, Edward; Morjaria, Ameet; Padró i Miquel, Gerard |
| Abstract: | Ethnic favoritism is seen as antithetical to development. This paper provides credible quantification of the extent of ethnic favoritism using data on road building in Kenyan districts across the 1963-2011 period. Guided by a model it then examines whether the transition in and out of democracy under the same president constrains or exacerbates ethnic favoritism. Across the 1963 to 2011 period, we find strong evidence of ethnic favoritism: districts that share the ethnicity of the president receive twice as much expenditure on roads and have four times the length of paved roads built. This favoritism disappears during periods of democracy. |
| JEL: | D72 L92 O55 R48 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9627&r=tre |
| By: | Nina LEHEYDA; Frank VERBOVEN |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of the car scrapping subsidies in Europe during the financial crisis. We make use of a rich data set of all car models sold in nine European countries, observed at a monthly level during 2005-2011.We employ a difference-in-differences approach, exploiting the fact that different countries adopted their programs at different points in time. We find that the scrapping schemes played a strong role in stabilizing total car sales in 2009: they prevented a total car sales reduction of 17.4% in countries with schemes targeted to low emission vehicles, and they prevented a 14.8% sales reduction in countries with non-targeted schemes. In contrast, the scrapping schemes only had small environmental benefits: without the schemes, average fuel consumption of new purchased cars would have been only 1.3% higher in countries with targeted schemes and 0.5% higher in countries with non-targeted schemes. We do not find evidence of crowding out due to substitution from non-eligible to eligible cars in countries with targeted schemes. Finally, we identify some competitive and trade effects from the schemes: domestic car producers benefited at the expense of foreign competitors in the countries where the schemes were not targeted. |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:ceswps:ces13.13&r=tre |
| By: | Habibi, Shiva (KTH); Sundberg, Marcus (KTH); Karlström, Anders (KTH) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we analyze the prediction problem and focus on building a multinomial logit model (MNL) to predict accurately, the market shares of new cars in the Swedish car fleet in the short-term future. Also, we investigate whether or not different prediction questions lead to different 'best' models specifications. Most of the studies in the field, take an inference-driven approach to select best models to estimate relevant parameters and project the results to the future, whereas we do take a prediction-driven approach. We use feature (variable) selection and cross-validation algorithms to improve predictive performance of models. These methods have been extensively used in other fields such as marketing but are scarce studies employing them in the choice modeling field. Additionally, we introduce four different prediction questions or loss-functions: overall prediction (log-likelihood), brand market share, ethanol (E85)/brand market share, and total share of ethanol cars and the predicted results of these models are compared. The results show that 'best' models prediction depend different prediction questions to answer. Also, they indicate that log-likelihood does not perform accurately when the objective is to predict a sub-section of population such as total share of E85 cars. |
| Keywords: | Hold-out sample; Out of sample prediction; Feature selection; Cross validation; Model selection; Car type choice; Discrete choice modeling; Clean vehicles |
| JEL: | R41 |
| Date: | 2013–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2013_013&r=tre |