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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Bent Flyvbjerg; Mette Skamris Holm; S{\o}ren L. Buhl |
| Abstract: | This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$59 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risks. Such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. For nine out of ten rail projects passenger forecasts are overestimated; average overestimation is 106 percent. This results in large benefit shortfalls for rail projects. For half of all road projects the difference between actual and forecasted traffic is more than plus/minus 20 percent. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts have improved over time, as often claimed by forecasters, this does not show in the data. The causes of inaccuracy in forecasts are different for rail and road projects, with political causes playing a larger role for rail than for road. The cure is transparency, accountability, and new forecasting methods. The challenge is to change the governance structures for forecasting and project development. The article shows how planners may help achieve this. |
| Date: | 2013–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1303.6654&r=tre |
| By: | Cooper, Jill F.; Schneider, Robert J.; Ryan, Sherry; Co, Sean |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to provide an exploratory analysis of the proportion of pedestrians, bicyclists, and drivers exhibiting four specific behaviors at 12 intersections near transit stations in 4 the San Francisco Bay Area. The target behaviors include: 1) pedestrians crossing the roadway while using a mobile device, such as a cell phone, 2) pedestrians crossing a signalized intersection against a red light, 3) bicyclists running a red light at a signalized intersection, and 4) automobiles turning right on red without stopping. These four behaviors are important because they may lead 8 to pedestrian crashes. Field observations show a range of observed pedestrian and bicycle violation of red lights. At some locations as few as 2.4% of non-motorized road users violated red lights, whereas 40% did at other sites. The range of vehicles violating red lights was somewhat higher, with 20% to 62% of drivers turning right illegally on a red light. Male pedestrians were more likely than females to talk on mobile devices while crossing the street and crossing the street at red lights. As pedestrian and bicycle mode shares increase, it will be essential for all users to understand their rights and responsibilities in the roadway environment. Documenting behaviors helps provide a foundation for engineering, education, and encouragement treatments that will improve safety for pedestrians and other roadway users. |
| Keywords: | Transportation and Highway Engineering, Public Health |
| Date: | 2013–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt85f9b3s8&r=tre |
| By: | Gerardo Marletto |
| Abstract: | A socio-technical approach is used to show that the future of urban mobility will depend on the competition between coalitions of innovative actors who support alternative transport systems. The current positioning of these coalitions is mapped with reference to innovation and power. The supporting coalition of the ‘individual car’ system benefits from a dominant position on current alternatives, but faces external pressures for change. Three transition pathways to 2030 are considered - 1) ‘AUTO-city’, i.e. the reconfiguration of the ‘individual car’ supporting coalition through the stable integration of producers of batteries; 2) ‘ECO-city’, i.e. the empowering of local coalitions which integrate all non-car modes, and their diffusion from pioneering to laggard cities; 3) ‘ELECTRI-city’, i.e. the empowering of a new coalition centered on electric operators which establish a new ‘electric vehicles + smart grids’ system. The deployment of one or another transition pathway also depends on the ability of supporting coalitions to influence political institutions. Without a political action for the weakening of the dominant position of the ‘individual car’ system, the ‘AUTO-city’ transition pathway will prevail. To support the ‘ECO-city’ and the ‘ELECTRI-city’ transition pathways, a multilevel transport policy or a national/federal industrial policy is needed, respectively. |
| Keywords: | Urban mobility; socio-technical analysis; socio-technical transition; innovative actor; supporting coalition |
| JEL: | R40 L14 O18 Q55 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:201306&r=tre |
| By: | Bent Flyvbjerg; Nils Bruzelius; Bert van Wee |
| Abstract: | Because of the prominent position of urban rail in reducing urban transport-related problems, such as congestion and air pollution, insights into the costs of possible new urban rail projects is very relevant for those involved with cost estimations, policy makers, cost-benefit analysts, and other target groups. Knowledge of the differences in costs per kilometre, including explanations of differences and their breakdowns is currently lacking in the literature. This paper aims to provide a first stage insight into how cost per kilometre varies across urban rail projects. The methodology applied is a simple cost comparison across projects where the data collected are comparable. We conclude that capital costs per route-kilometre of urban rail vary highly between projects. Looking at European projects and excluding outliers, the total capital costs per route-kilometre (including stations and rolling stock) lie mainly between US$50-100 million (2002 prices). Including US projects, the range is US$50-150 million. The main reasons for the high variation in the route-kilometre costs are differences between projects as regards the ratio of underground to above-ground construction, ground conditions, station spacing, type of rolling stock, environmental and safety constraints and labour costs. We warn, however, that the observations used to reach the conclusions are too few to obtain results with statistical significance. Our results must therefore be seen as a first step towards collecting more data so that a more succinct statistical analysis can be conducted. Another conclusion is therefore that this area has future research potential. |
| Date: | 2013–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1303.6569&r=tre |
| By: | Bent Flyvbjerg; Mette K. Skamris Holm; S{\o}ren L. Buhl |
| Abstract: | This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth US$90 billion and representing different project types, geographical regions, and historical periods, it is found with overwhelming statistical significance that the cost estimates used to decide whether such projects should be built are highly and systematically misleading. Underestimation cannot be explained by error and is best explained by strategic misrepresentation, that is, lying. The policy implications are clear: legislators, administrators, investors, media representatives, and members of the public who value honest numbers should not trust cost estimates and cost-benefit analyses produced by project promoters and their analysts. |
| Date: | 2013–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1303.6604&r=tre |
| By: | Schneider, Robert J.; Henry, Todd; Mitman, Meghan F.; Stonehill, Laura; Koehler, Jesse |
| Abstract: | The San Francisco pedestrian volume modeling process refined the methodology used to develop previous intersection-based models and incorporated variables that were tailored to estimate walking activity in the local urban context. The methodology included two main steps. First, manual and automated pedestrian counts were taken at a sample of 50 study intersections with a variety of characteristics. A series of factor adjustments were applied to produce an annual pedestrian crossing estimate at each intersection. Second, log-linear regression modeling was used to identify statistically-significant relationships between the annual pedestrian volume estimate and land use, transportation system, local environment, and socioeconomic characteristics near each intersection. Twelve alternative models were considered, and the preferred model had a good overall fit (adjusted-R 2= 0.804). As identified in other communities, pedestrian volumes were positively associated with the number of households and the number of jobs near each intersection. Uniquely, this San Francisco model also found significantly higher pedestrian volumes at intersections in high-activity zones with metered on-street parking, in areas with fewer hills, near university campuses, and controlled by traffic signals. The model was based on a relatively small sample of intersections, so the number of significant factors was limited to six. Results are being used by public agencies in San Francisco to better understand pedestrian crossing risk and to inform citywide pedestrian safety policy and investment. |
| Keywords: | City/Urban, Community and Regional Planning, Transportation and Highway Engineering |
| Date: | 2013–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt8cs2g40c&r=tre |
| By: | Bent Flyvbjerg |
| Abstract: | The article first describes characteristics of major infrastructure projects. Second, it documents a much neglected topic in economics: that ex ante estimates of costs and benefits are often very different from actual ex post costs and benefits. For large infrastructure projects the consequence is cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and the systematic underestimation of risks. Third, implications for cost-benefit analysis are described, including that such analysis is not to be trusted for major infrastructure projects. Fourth, the article uncovers the causes of this state of affairs in terms of perverse incentives that encourage promoters to underestimate costs and overestimate benefits in the business cases for their projects. But the projects that are made to look best on paper are the projects that amass the highest cost overruns and benefit shortfalls in reality. The article depicts this situation as "survival of the un-fittest." Fifth, the article sets out to explain how the problem may be solved, with a view to arriving at more efficient and more democratic projects, and avoiding the scandals that often accompany major infrastructure investments. Finally, the article identifies current trends in major infrastructure development. It is argued that a rapid increase in stimulus spending combined with more investments in emerging economies combined with more spending on information technology is catapulting infrastructure investment from the frying pan into the fire. |
| Date: | 2013–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1303.6571&r=tre |
| By: | Arthur Schram (schram@uva.nl); Aljaz Ule (a.ule@uva.nl) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates infrastructure investment in markets where regulation is subject to varying degrees of manipulation by elected politicians. Based on a model of price regulation in a market with increasing demand and long-term returns on investment we construct a multi-period game between a service provider, consumers with voting rights and elected decision makers. In each period the consumers elect a decision maker who may then regulate the price for service provision. Before an election the service provider chooses whether to increase its capacity. Investment is irreversible and profitable only with a sufficiently high price. We derive the subgame perfect equilibrium for this game and investigate the price and investment dynamics through an experiment with human subjects. The experimental results show that service providers invest when decision-makers' interests align with their own, though prices may rise inefficiently high when the regulatory framework is made independent of future political manipulation. Independency of regulation thus decreases efficiency and consumer surplus. In contrast, when decision-makers' interests do not align with service providers' we find efficiency only when regulation can be made independent from electoral dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructural investment; regulation; electoral competition; laboratory experiment |
| JEL: | L5 L43 D92 C9 |
| Date: | 2013–03–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20130046&r=tre |
| By: | James Alm (Department of Economics, Tulane University); Jay A. Soled (Department of Accounting and Information Systems, Rutgers Business School) |
| Abstract: | The United States has more automobiles per capita than any other country in the industrial world, and taxpayers use those automobiles for business and nonbusiness purposes. The former classification affords favorable individual income tax treatment, while the latter does not. However, to secure favorable tax treatment, taxpayers often mischaracterize their nonbusiness automobile expenses as business in nature, and they are able to do so with almost complete impunity. Using tabulations of Internal Revenue Service data, we demonstrate that such mischaracterizations result in a significant annual cost in terms of forfeited tax revenue. In addition, using elementary economic theory, we illustrate how taxpayer mischaracterizations result in additional demand for gasoline, which likely raises overall gasoline prices for all consumers. On the basis of our findings, we contend that immediate reforms are needed, and we present several legislative options for Congress to consider. We also argue that the experience of automobile expenses carries larger lessons for other types of tax expenditures, lessons that have relevance to the ongoing discussions about comprehensive tax reform measures. |
| Keywords: | tax compliance, individual income tax, itemized deductions |
| JEL: | H0 H3 |
| Date: | 2013–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:wpaper:1306&r=tre |