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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Dan Bogart (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine) |
| Abstract: | Between 1700 and 1870 Britain's transport sector improved dramatically. This paper surveys the literature on Britain’s transport revolution and examines its contribution to economic growth during the Industrial Revolution. It reviews the important infrastructural and technological developments, documents the evolution of transport markets, and examines the developmental effects of transport. The most striking finding is that freight charges decreased by 95 percent in real terms from 1700 to 1870 implying an annual TFP of more than 2 percent. The broader conclusion is that transport improvements were major factor in raising the standard of living in Britain and were as significant as other innovations. At the same time, Britain's history shows that many transport improvements were difficult to implement because they required financial innovation and involved taxation and vexing property rights issues. |
| Keywords: | Transport Revolution; Industrial Revolution; Infrastructure; Railways, Canals; Turnpike; Shipping |
| JEL: | N43 N73 R4 |
| Date: | 2013–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irv:wpaper:121306&r=tre |
| By: | Robert Pietzcker (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Thomas Longden, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change); Thomas Longden (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change); Wenying Chen (3E (Energy, Environment and Economy) Research Institute, Tsinghua University); Sha Fu (National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation (NCSC)); Elmar Kriegler (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research); Page Kyle (Joint Global Change Research Institute, Paci?c Northwest National Laboratory); Gunnar Luderer (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) |
| Abstract: | Transportation accounts for a substantial share of CO2 emissions, and decarbonizing transport will be necessary to limit global warming to below 2°C. Due to persistent reliance on fossil fuels, it is posited that transport is more difficult to decarbonize than other sectors. We test this hypothesis by comparing long-term transport energy demand and emission projections for China, USA and the World from five large-scale energy-economy models with respect to three climate policies. We systematically analyze mitigation levers along the chain of causality from mobility to emissions, and discuss structural differences between mitigation in transport and non-transport sectors. We can confirm the hypothesis that transport is difficult to decarbonize with purely monetary signals when looking at the period before 2070. In the long run, however, the three global models achieve deep transport emission reductions by >90% through the use of advanced vehicle technologies and carbon-free primary energy; especially biomass with CCS plays a crucial role. Compared to the global models, the two partial-equilibrium models are relatively inflexible in their reaction to climate policies. Across all models, transportation mitigation lags behind non-transport mitigation by 10-30 years. The extent to which earlier mitigation is possible strongly depends on implemented technologies and model structure. |
| Keywords: | Transportation Scenarios, Carbon Emission Mitigation, Integrated Assessment, Energy-Economy Modeling, Advanced Light Duty Vehicles, Demand Reduction |
| JEL: | Q54 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2013–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2013.08&r=tre |
| By: | Ioannis Tikoudis (VU University Amsterdam); Erik T. Verhoef (VU University Amsterdam); Jos N. van Ommeren (VU University Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the interactions between congestion pricing and a tax-distorted labor market within a monocentric urban equilibrium model. We compute the efficiency gains of various second-best policies, i.e. combinations of toll schemes and revenue recycling programs, with a predetermined level of public revenue. We find that 35% of the space-varying road tax does not reflect marginal external congestion costs, but rather functions as a Ramsey-Mirrlees tax, i.e. an efficiency enhancing mechanism allowing space differentiation of the labor tax. Such a space-varying tax adds a quite different motivation to road pricing, since it can produce large welfare gains even in the absence of congestion. We show that both a cordon toll and a flat kilometer tax achieve over 80% of these gains when combined with specific types of revenue recycling, such as labor tax cuts or public transport subsidies. Sensitivity analysis shows that the optimal type of revenue recycling depends on the level of inefficiency in the provision of public transport prior to the introduction of congestion pricing. |
| Keywords: | Second-best road pricing; revenue recycling; monocentric city |
| JEL: | R41 R48 H23 H76 J20 R13 R14 |
| Date: | 2013–02–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20130031&r=tre |
| By: | Chèze, Benoit; Chevallier, Julien; Gastineau, Pascal |
| Abstract: | The aim of this article is to investigate whether anticipated technological progress can be expected to be strong enough to offset carbon dioxide (CO2)emissions resulting from the rapid growth of air transport. Aviation CO2 emissions projections are provided at the worldwide level and for eight geographical zones until 2025. Total air traffic flows are first forecast using a dynamic panel-data econometric model and then converted into corresponding quantities of air traffic CO2 emissions, through jet fuel demand forecasts, using specific hypothesis and energy factors. None of our nine scenarios appears compatible with the objective of 450 ppm CO2-eq. (a.k.a. “scenario of type I”) recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). None is either compatible with the IPCC scenario of type III, which aims at limiting global warming to 3.2◦C. Thus, aviation CO2 emissions are unlikely to diminish over the next decade unless there is a radical shift in technology and/or travel demand is restricted. |
| Keywords: | Air transport; CO2 emissions; Forecasting; Climate change; |
| JEL: | C53 L93 Q47 Q54 |
| Date: | 2013–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ner:dauphi:urn:hdl:123456789/9262&r=tre |
| By: | Nolan Ritter; Christoph M. Schmidt; Colin Vance |
| Abstract: | We provide evidence that motorists respond to short-run fluctuations in fuel prices at the gas pump and not on the road. Employing variants of censored panel regression to control for unobserved heterogeneity and censoring of the dependent variable, we find that the fuel price has a large and negative impact on the quantity of fuel purchased, but no significant impact on the subsequent distance driven per day until the next refill. Over the short-run, drivers thus appear to cope with high fuel prices by adjusting fuel purchases with each visit to the filling station, but without altering their daily mileage |
| Keywords: | Panel data; households; driving behavior; tanking behavior, fuel price |
| JEL: | C33 Q41 R41 |
| Date: | 2013–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rwi:repape:0401&r=tre |
| By: | Christopher R. Knittel; Ryan Sandler |
| Abstract: | A basic tenet of economics posits that when consumers or firms don't face the true social cost of their actions, market outcomes are inefficient. In the case of negative externalities, Pigouvian taxes are one way to correct this market failure, where the optimal tax leads agents to internalize the true cost of their actions. A practical complication, however, is that the level of externality nearly always varies across economic agents and directly taxing the externality may be infeasible. In such cases, policy often taxes a product correlated with the externality. For example, instead of taxing vehicle emissions directly, policy makers may tax gasoline even though per-gallon emissions vary across vehicles. This paper estimates the implications of this approach within the personal transportation market. We have three general empirical results. First, we show that vehicle emissions are positively correlated with vehicle elasticities for miles traveled with respect to fuel prices (in absolute value)—i.e. dirtier vehicles respond more to fuel prices. This correlation substantially increases the optimal second-best uniform gasoline tax. Second, and perhaps more importantly, we show that a uniform tax performs very poorly in eliminating deadweight loss associated with vehicle emissions; in many years in our sample over 75 percent of the deadweight loss remains under the optimal second-best gasoline tax. Substantial improvements to market efficiency require differentiating based on vehicle type, for example vintage. Finally, there is a more positive result: because of the positive correlation between emissions and elasticities, the health benefits from a given gasoline tax increase by roughly 90 percent, compared to what one would expect if emissions and elasticities were uncorrelated. |
| JEL: | H21 H23 L91 Q48 Q51 Q52 Q53 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2013–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18849&r=tre |
| By: | Roland Döhrn |
| Abstract: | There is a broad agreement that transportation activity is closely linked to the business cycle. Nevertheless, data from the transportation sector have not been part of the tool kit of business cycle analysts due to long publications lags. With the disseminations of electronic road pricing systems, up to date figures on transportation activity are available for an increasing number of countries. This paper analyses the performance of the German toll statistics for nowcasting industry production. It confirms that between January 2007, when the toll data were published first, and July 2012 the seasonally adjusted toll data show a closer correlation with industry production than business surveys like the ifo business climate or the PMI. Compared to this the forecasting power out of sample is disappointing. Though showing somewhat smaller forecast errors than the alternative models tested the advantage of the toll based models is not statistically significant as a rule. Given the small publication lead against industry production and the publication lag against business sentiment indicators one should not be over-enthusiastic on the opportunities of the toll data as a nowcasting tool, though they surely mean an addition to the business cycle analysts’ tool box. |
| Keywords: | Transportation data; nowcasting; forecasting performance |
| JEL: | E32 E37 |
| Date: | 2013–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rwi:repape:0395&r=tre |
| By: | Gilles Duranton; Peter Morrow; Matthew Turner |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of interstate highways on the level and composition of trade for us cities. Highways within cities have a large effect on the weight of city exports with an elasticity of approximately 0.5. We find little effect of highways on the total value of exports. Consistent with this, we find that cities with more highways specialize in sectors producing heavy goods. |
| Keywords: | interstate highways, transportation costs, trade and specializartion |
| JEL: | F14 R41 R49 |
| Date: | 2013–03–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-479&r=tre |
| By: | Jie Zhang (Graduate School of Economics, Keio University) |
| Abstract: | Infrastructure can affect sectoral productivity and lead to industrial structure changes. Under the framework of Harrigan (1997), this study provides an empirical analysis of the effect of infrastructure on China's industry-level productivity and regional specialization during the period of 1987-2007. We calculate the total factor productivity of 9 manufacturing industries in 28 provinces and study the effects of roads networks, telecommunications, and electric power supply on regional variations in sectoral TFP. We also examine the effect of these infrastructures on the sectoral output share across provinces. By using a structure model of infrastructure accumulation and the 3SLS estimation strategy to control for endogeneity of infrastructure provisions, we find that telecommunications and electric power have positive effects on sectoral TFP performance, while road networks and telecommunications help to explain the regional comparative advantage and production specialization. |
| Date: | 2013–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kei:dpaper:2012-034&r=tre |
| By: | Pittman, Russell; Choi, Sunghee |
| Abstract: | South Korea, like many countries, is engaged in a policy debate concerning possible railways reforms. However, unlike most countries, here the focus of discussion has been the government’s proposal to open high-speed passenger train lines to a second train company that would supply on-track competition to KTX trains. While such a policy may indeed lead to lower fares and greater efficiency, worldwide experience casts doubt on the government’s hope that it would lead to such dramatic increases in ridership that the level of subsidies to the overall rail system could be reduced. We argue that a more promising reform strategy may be to introduce competition into freight rail. Based on the Latin American experience, creating independent, vertically integrated, competing freight railway companies could be expected not only to lower shipper rates and increase efficiency but also to raise considerable revenues from the private sector in franchising fees and new investments. |
| Keywords: | railways, restructuring, competition, South Korea |
| JEL: | L9 L92 O1 O18 R4 R48 |
| Date: | 2013–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:44992&r=tre |
| By: | He, Xiaobo |
| Abstract: | Using China Household Income Project Survey (2002) data, this paper addresses the causal relationship between individual wages and access to international markets. The ordinary least squares estimates show statistically insignificant and quantitatively zero effects of accessibility to international markets proxied by the length of contemporary transport routes connecting the origin city and its nearest major seaport. However, using prefecture-level population density in 1820 as exogenous variation in current transport routes, the two-stage least squares regressions provide an opposite picture indicating that every 1 percent increase in distance from the origin city to international markets (i.e. the nearest seaport), ceteris paribus, has a negative impact on individual wages of 0.086 percent. This causal effect remains robust to various sensitivity tests which include current labor market structure, historical factor endowments and initial population development. |
| Keywords: | O12, O15, F16 |
| JEL: | F16 O12 O15 |
| Date: | 2013–02–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:44537&r=tre |
| By: | Xu, Hangtian; Nakajima, Kentaro |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effects of highways (Gaosu Gonglu) on economic development in China’s county-level cities from 1998 to 2007, a period in which China experienced sharp growth in highway mileage, using a micro level data set on industry and highway placement and the double difference propensity score matching method. After extracting the core regions, empirical estimates indicate that highway placement promotes industrial development in related cities with higher output and more investments, and these results are robust to two different checks. However, county-level cities more than 300 km away from large cities do not benefit from new highways. Furthermore, highways tend to promote the development of heavy industry but not that of light industry. Labor productivity exhibits few positive effects. |
| Keywords: | transport infrastructure project, double di erence propensity score matching (DD-PSM), regional development |
| JEL: | H54 R12 |
| Date: | 2013–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:primdp:33&r=tre |
| By: | Astrid De Witte; Joachim Hollevoet; Frédéric Dobruszkes; Michel Hubert; Cathy Macharis |
| Abstract: | Modal choice is determined by a whole range of factors that are interrelated to a larger or smaller extent. It is often the result of a very compound choice process that can take place consciously or unconsciously and that includes objective as well as subjective determinants. Despite its significance in our daily life, there is no uniform way to define and analyze the concept of modal choice. The aim of this review is to fill this gap by elaborating a common modal choice definition and by providing a comprehensive review on the concept of modal choice through linking it to Kaufmann’s motility concept. By doing so, this review will not only contribute to an improved knowledge on different modal choice determinants and their interdependencies, but can also assist to the understanding and modeling of modal choice decisions. The review can therefore help increasing the effectiveness of policy measures taken by environmental, urban and transport policy makers. |
| Keywords: | Travel behavior; Modal choice; Determinants; Motility |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/138176&r=tre |
| By: | van der Vooren; Eric Brouillat |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an agent-based model that simulates the market for passenger cars in which firm strategies, market structure, consumer choices and policy instruments co-evolve. The main contribution of the paper is to show that this type of simulation model can be used to explore interactions and additional effects when different policy measures are combined to reduce CO2 emissions. We show the impact of policy portfolios on economic and technological decisions of firms, on consumer choice and on global CO2 emissions. In particular, we show how the dynamics of the system can lead to a technological lock-in into internal combustion technologies and demonstrate the ways in which policy instruments can help to break this lock-in. We show that policy portfolios can be relevant to achieve the best of different stand-alone policy measures, but not necessarily. Ex ante evaluation is therefore recommended. |
| Keywords: | agent-based simulation, CO2 emissions, low emission vehicle technologies, policy portfolio, technological change, transition |
| Date: | 2013–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uis:wpaper:1301&r=tre |
| By: | Meghan R. Busse; Nicola Lacetera; Devin G. Pope; Jorge Silva-Risso; Justin R. Sydnor |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether the first digit of an odometer reading is more salient to consumers than subsequent digits. We find that retail transaction prices and volumes of used vehicles drop discontinuously at 10,000-mile odometer thresholds, echoing effects found in the wholesale market by Lacetera, Pope and Sydnor (2012). Our results reveal that retail consumers devote limited attention to evaluating vehicle mileage, and that this drives effects in the wholesale market. We estimate the inattention parameter implied by the price discontinuities. In addition, our results suggest that estimating consumer-level structural parameters using data from an intermediate market can give misleading results. |
| JEL: | D03 D12 L0 L62 |
| Date: | 2013–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18820&r=tre |
| By: | Vincent van den Berg (VU University Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | Consider a government tendering the right to operate, for example, an airport, telecommunication network, or utility. There is an 'incumbent bidder' who owns a complement or substitute facility, and one entering 'new bidder'. With a 'standard auction' on the payment to the government, the incumbent is willing to bid higher than its expected profit from the facility as winning implies that it is a monopolist instead of a duopolist. The incumbent is therefore more likely to win. However, it tends to have a lower expected surplus unless the new bidder can never win, which occurs with 'private values' when the facilities are strong complements or substitutes and always with 'common values'. The 'standard auction' leads to an unregulated outcome which hurts consumers as tendered facilities tend to have limited competition. The government could improve the outcome by endogenously regulating using a 'price auction' on the price to be a sked to consumers. Now, it depends who is advantaged: with complements, the incumbent bids below its marginal cost and is more likely to win; with substitutes, it bids above and is less likely to win. The same effects occur in auctions on service quality or number of users. In many settings, the advantaged bidder always wins, and this can greatly affect the competition for the field. |
| Keywords: | tendering; overbidding; advantaged bidders; network markets |
| JEL: | D43 D44 L51 R42 |
| Date: | 2013–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20130033&r=tre |