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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Jan Bazyli Klakla; Maciej Duszczyk |
| Abstract: | Over the last dozen years Poland became an immigration country. The 178th mBank-CASE Seminar proceedings is devoted to this process – from various perspectives. The data speak for themselves. Immigration provides significant support for the Polish labour market. Poland is facing a rapid population decline. According to projections by the Ministry of Finance in 2022, by 2030 the population of Poland could decrease from the current 37.75 million to 36.6 million, and by 2050 to 34.1 million. The percentage of people of working age will decrease, while the elderly population will increase. Immigration may provide a solution to this problem. In 2022, around 100, 000 people from Belarus arrived in Poland, most of them actively participating in the labour market. In addition, there are 1.2 million Ukrainians who stayed in Poland after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It is therefore necessary to develop a long-term immigration, education and social policy to retain immigrants and integrate them into society and the labour market. This is what eminent experts who have been researching migration processes for years write about in the first two chapters of these Notebooks: Dr Maciej Duszczyk, as well as Dr Agata Górny and Dr Paweł Kaczmarczyk, from the Centre for Migration Research, operating within the University of Warsaw. The third chapter is devoted to the situation of female domestic workers. |
| Keywords: | country of emigration, country of immigration, migration policy, visa policy, immigrant integration, war refugees, economic migrants, labour market, domestic work sector, Poland, Ukraine |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J48 J61 J68 |
| Date: | 2024–05–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:mbanks:0178 |
| By: | Rudolf Holik (Prague University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | Cohesion policy is a cornerstone of the European Union?s efforts to reduce regional disparities and promote balanced development. As the EU prepares for the post-2027 period, this policy is under review to ensure it responds to emerging challenges such as climate change, digital transformation, demographic shifts, and geopolitical uncertainty. For the Czech Republic, a key cohesion fund beneficiary, this reform represents both a challenge and a strategic opportunity.This paper examines the Czech Republic?s implementation of cohesion policy during the 2021?2027 programming period, identifying persistent barriers including administrative complexity, slow absorption, and limited territorial flexibility. It then analyses the Czech Republic?s engagement in shaping the future policy framework, including contributions to EU-level debates, strategic alliances, and formal position papers. Particular attention is paid to recent milestones such as the 9th Cohesion Report, the High-Level Group?s recommendations, and joint declarations by Member States.Building on this context, the paper identifies five strategic options for the Czech Republic: securing adequate cohesion funding; applying place-based, integrated territorial development tools; strengthening flexibility and crisis resilience; simplifying implementation while focusing on results; and preparing for EU enlargement. These options form the basis for concrete recommendations to develop a post-2027 national cohesion strategy.The study concludes that the Czech Republic must move beyond defending financial allocations and adopt a proactive, future-oriented stance. A well-structured strategy that aligns domestic priorities with EU reform will help the country maximize its cohesion investments and contribute meaningfully to shaping a more resilient and inclusive Europe. |
| Keywords: | Cohesion Policy; Regional Development; Structural Funds; Czech Republic; European Union; Multiannual Financial Framework; EU Policy Reform; Territorial Governance; Smart Specialisation; EU Budget |
| JEL: | R58 H77 H50 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:15116866 |
| By: | Agnieszka Kulesa |
| Abstract: | Climate change is a global problem – it requires the cooperation of countries all over the world and the implementation of sustainable development concepts. In mBank-CASE Seminar Proceedings no. 177 authors describe the ways selected Polish regions tackled the challenges of transition towards sustainable energy. Agnieszka Kulesa, Vice-President of CASE Management Board, focuses on Lusatia, Upper Nitra and Greater Poland and the way these regions handled the transition, highlighting the role of lignite mining. Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk, Energy Forum expert and director of the Electricity comments on Agnieszka’s findings. Next chapters focus on the way two cities in Poland managed to make their way through an energy transition: Konin – described by Piotr Korytkowski, Its President, and Wałbrzych – by Andrzej Kosiór, Head of the Strategic Management Office. |
| Keywords: | energy transition, lignite, Greater Poland, Upper Nitra, Lusatia, Lower Silesia, Konin region, local government |
| JEL: | P28 Q32 |
| Date: | 2024–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:mbanks:0177 |
| By: | Dominika Langenmayr; Mikayel Tovmasyan; Sebastian Vosseler |
| Abstract: | Are sanctions bypassed by hiding money offshore? Using bilateral data on bank deposits, we compare how offshore deposits from sanctioned versus non-sanctioned countries develop after the U.S. and the EU impose financial sanctions. Sanctions targeting individuals increase offshore deposits, as (potential) targets attempt to hide their funds. Broader financial sanctions reduce offshore (and other foreign) deposits, as money is repatriated. A synthetic control case study of Russia following the annexation of Crimea confirms our main findings, showing a 15% post-sanction increase in offshore deposits. These findings highlight the limits of symbolic sanctions and the need for secondary sanctions and financial surveillance. |
| Keywords: | sanctions, tax havens, illicit financial flows |
| JEL: | F51 H12 K42 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12086 |
| By: | Gigi Ormotsadze; Tedo Evgenidze |
| Abstract: | The publication is a comprehensive analysis by the Economic Policy Research Center (EPRC). It investigates the multifaceted effects of the Ukraine war on Georgia’s economic landscape, combining insights from historical developments, current vulnerabilities, and future prospects. Authored by Gigi Ormotsadze and Tedo Evgenidze, the report highlights the country’s integration into global systems, its dependency on external economic factors, and the challenges posed by political and economic shifts. The document explores key sectors such as trade, energy, and finance, and scrutinizes how inflows of migrants, financial assets, and geopolitical instability have created both opportunities and risks. It underscores the resilience Georgia has demonstrated in its recovery from crises like COVID-19 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, while noting systemic weaknesses such as high debt levels, governance inefficiencies, and a reliance on external markets. The report closes with targeted policy recommendations aimed at mitigating vulnerabilities and fostering sustainable growth. |
| Keywords: | Georgia, economic growth, economic security, energy dependence, foreign trade, financial sector, current account |
| JEL: | E01 E21 E22 E23 E31 E42 E58 E63 F10 F21 G21 H20 J11 K32 |
| Date: | 2025–01–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:report:0509 |
| By: | T\'imea Kov\'acs; D\'ora Gr\'eta Petr\'oczy; G\'abor P\'asztor |
| Abstract: | As of 2022, the European Union has taken several steps regarding enlargement. We focus on the accession of countries with which the Union is actively negotiating membership. This is examined under two enlargement scenarios: first, the enlargement along the lines of the Western Balkan countries, and second, the accession of a trio (Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia) to the already enlarged Union. We determine the a priori power of the member states based on the Banzhaf and Shapley--Shubik indices. Various coalitions are also assumed to assess the power and influence of member states, considering both pre- and post-enlargement scenarios. We found a rare case when the two indices give different rankings. In the case of the Western Balkan countries' accession, the smaller population member states gain power, presenting an example of the new member paradox. While in a Union of 36 members, every member state loses some of their current power. However, some coalitions are better off with the EU36 enlargement than a EU33 one. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.08914 |
| By: | Michał Brzoza-Brzezina; Witold M. Orłowski; Jakub Karnowski; Andrzej Rzońca; Ewa Balcerowicz |
| Abstract: | 179th mBank-CASE Seminar Proceedings presents economic scenarios for Poland discussed by Polish economists in November 2023, shortly after the parliamentary elections that ended the eight-year rule of the Law and Justice party. The experts analyzed the country’s macroeconomic situation, growth prospects, and the consequences of the populist policies from 2016–2023. They highlighted current challenges such as labor market imbalances, high inflation, an expansionary fiscal policy, and the issue of an aging population. They also provided recommendations for monetary, fiscal, educational, and immigration policies. In addition to short-term challenges like very low unemployment and rising labor costs, the authors emphasize the need for a deliberate approach to economic policy. In the longer term, we face the challenge of diminishing potential to converge further with the more developed economies of the European Union. An aging population and the anticipated slowdown in productivity growth require us to take structural action. The experts suggest that only by increasing innovation, improving education quality, and creating conditions for well-integrated immigration will we be able to maintain sustainable economic growth in the coming decades. |
| Keywords: | economic growth, stagflation, public finances, internal balance, external balance, stability, inflation, institutions, economic policy, populism, European integration, Poland, European Union |
| JEL: | D72 E02 E22 E24 E31 E61 E62 E65 I25 J11 O11 O43 |
| Date: | 2024–10–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:mbanks:0179 |
| By: | Dariusz Filar; Andrzej Reich; Michał Polasik; Ewa Balcerowicz |
| Abstract: | The subject of this publication, reflecting the discussion held between experts on 30 March 2023, is that of housing loans in Poland. The publication focuses primarily on discussing the state of mortgages (at the end of the first quarter of 2023). This state is the effect of (a) legislation, (b) institutional solutions, (c) past processes in the financing of housing loans, and recently also (d) the high level of inflation dampening both lending by the banks and the level of interest among bank customers. The publication’s second purpose is to present recommendations which, once put into effect, could rectify today’s lamentable situation. All of the proposals presented in this publication lead to one general recommendation: the answer to the current shortcomings lies not in isolated, single changes; what is essential is a new system for the market. This new system should be (a) flexible, (b) free of legal risk while at the same time (c) better protected against market risk, and (d) it should also contain a more comprehensive range of products; on this market (e) the state, as the regulator, should intervene ex-ante and not only ex-post (as has been the case in Poland for the last 20 years), while (f) customers should have the essential minimum of financial knowledge, first and foremost regarding awareness of the risk related to, which by their very nature are long-term loans. |
| Keywords: | home loan, mortgage, Swiss franc loans, balanced mortgage, new loans, banking system, legal risk, market risk, interest rates, home loans market, financial education, Poland |
| JEL: | G21 G28 G51 G53 |
| Date: | 2024–01–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:mbanks:0176 |
| By: | Gadžo, Amra; Babajic, Amra; Nuhanović, Amra |
| Abstract: | This study explores the impact of educating households on energy savings and its subsequent effect on reducing energy consumption and pollution. The research was conducted on a sample of 10, 044 household owners in the Tuzla Canton of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. During the first round of household visits, data on individual household electricity consumption for the past twelve months were collected, education on possible energy savings in households was conducted, and four standard light bulbs were replaced with four LED light bulbs. After one year, a second round of data collection on household electricity consumption for twelve months was conducted. The paper presents comparative indicators of electricity consumption before and after education, achieved savings in consumption, and the calculation of reduced harmful emissions into the air. The research results showed that educating household owners about possible energy savings resulted in an increase in their efforts to achieve energy savings. The value of the achieved energy savings amounts to 4.47% in percentage terms, 1, 962, 676.50 kWh in absolute terms, the recalculated value of savings in EUR amounts to 166, 079, while the value of reduced air emissions amounts to 2, 345, 398.42 kg CO2. The highest energy savings were achieved in the municipality of Kalesija at 8.76%, while the lowest were in the city of Živinice at 2.64%. The results of this study will contribute to the literature gap in understanding the importance of educating the population, their behavioural characteristics, potential energy savings, and the cost-benefit analysis of such energy-saving projects. |
| Keywords: | education of household owners, energy savings, reduction of energy consumption, reduction of air pollution |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:324466 |
| By: | Drenkovska, Marija; Lenarčič, Črt |
| Abstract: | The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) highlighted the importance of early identification of systemic financial stress and timely macroprudential policy responses. In this context, financial stress indices have become essential tools for monitoring systemic risk in real time. While composite indicators exist for the euro area and several member states, Slovenia has lacked such a measure, primarily due to limited financial market depth and data constraints. This paper introduces the Financial Markets Stress Indicator for Slovenia (FIMSIS), the first composite financial stress indicator developed specifically for the Slovenian financial system. FIMSIS aggregates volatility-based indicators across market segments using three alternative approaches - exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA), multivariate GARCH (BEKK) and principal component analysis (PCA) - allowing for a comparative evaluation of aggregation techniques. The indicator captures both the intensity and systemic dimension of financial stress and is evaluated through robustness checks and regime classification using a Markov-switching model. To assess predictive performance, we apply a Growth-at-Risk framework with Adaptive LASSO and non-crossing constraints. Results confirm FIMSIS's relevance for signalling downside macroeconomic risk. |
| Keywords: | financial systemic stress, financial stress indicator, financial stability, financial system, macroprudential policy |
| JEL: | E44 G01 G10 G20 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125551 |