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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Hinz, Julian; Schularick, Moritz |
| Abstract: | A "Ukraine Support Tariff" on the remaining €57.2 billion in EU-Russia trade could generate €6-16 billion per year at moderate rates of 30-50% (partial equilibrium) and €3-11 billion (general equilibrium) - exceeding the €3 billion from frozen Russian asset interest income. General equilibrium simulations confirm that Europe has asymmetric leverage over Russia: Russia's value added falls 3-4 times more than the EU's, making the tariff sustainable as long-term leverage. Trade diversion to China is modest. Extreme tariff rates (300%+) are counterproductive, as long-run revenue falls to near zero. Economically, we analyse a combined import tariff and export-side levy on remaining EU-Russia trade. Institutionally, the import leg is more straightforward under EU trade law, while the export leg is less straightforward and would likely require a distinct legal route. That asymmetry matters for implementation, but not for the economic logic of the combined proposal. |
| Abstract: | Ein "'Ukraine-Unterstützungszoll"' auf den verbleibenden EU-Russland-Handel von knapp €60 Mrd. pro Jahr könnte bei Zollsätzen von 30-50% jährlich €6-16 Mrd. (partielles Gleichgewicht) bzw. €3-11 Mrd. (allgemeines Gleichgewicht) erbringen - mehr als die €3 Mrd. aus den Zinserträgen eingefrorener russischer Vermögenswerte Allgemeine Gleichgewichtssimulationen zeigen asymmetrische Kosten: Russlands-Wertschöpfung sinkt erheblich; das Instrument ist als langfristiges Druckmittel tragfähig. Handelsumlenkung nach China bleibt begrenzt. Extreme Sätze (300%+) sind kontraproduktiv. In diesem Papier analysieren wir ein kombiniertes Paket aus Importzöllen und Exportabgaben auf den verbleibenden EU-Russland-Handel. Institutionell ist die Importseite unter dem EU-Handelsrecht unkomplizierter, während die Exportseite rechtlich anspruchsvoller ist und voraussichtlich eine eigene rechtliche Ausgestaltung erfordert. An der ökonomischen Logik des kombinierten Vorschlags ändert diese Asymmetrie nichts - wohl aber an der Umsetzung. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine Support Tariff, EU-Russia Trade, Tariff Revenue, Laffer Curve, General Equilibrium, Ukraine-Unterstützungszoll, EU-Russland-Handel, Zolleinnahmen, Laffer-Kurve, Allgemeines Gleichgewicht |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:341425 |
| By: | Vanda Almeida; Jakub Caisl; Claire Hoffmann; Sebastian Königs; Mauricio Salazar-Lozada; Filippo Brunelli; Alessandro Giordano; Ana I. Moreno-Monroy; Tainá Pacheco |
| Abstract: | Access to enabling services is an important determinant of labour market participation and social inclusion. This paper examines the role of capacity constraints and public transport access in shaping the accessibility of early childhood education and care (ECEC), primary schools and Public Employment Services (PES) at the municipal level and across degrees of urbanisation in Estonia and the Netherlands, drawing on data on service locations, capacity, enrolment and local transport infrastructure. The results confirm a clear urban-rural gradient in physical accessibility. However, proximity alone provides an incomplete picture: people in urban areas benefit from shorter travel times, but high demand pressure and capacity constraints can result in lower competitive accessibility compared to less densely populated areas. In both countries, 13% to 14% of children in primary school face a double disadvantage of longer travel times and below-median competitive accessibility. For PES, geographic disparities in public transport provision can represent a source of vulnerability for people without access to a private motor vehicle. |
| Keywords: | Geographic disparities |
| JEL: | I24 J13 O18 R23 R53 |
| Date: | 2026–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:333-en |
| By: | Möller, Joachim (University of Regensburg and Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | During and after World War II, West Germany absorbed around eight million refugees and displaced persons, including nearly two million children. This provides a natural experiment to examine whether birthplace characteristics exert persistent effects on later labor-market outcomes. Using administrative labor-market biographies for the 1935–1950 birth cohorts combined with geocoded information on birthplaces and workplaces, we find that birthplace urbanicity is strongly associated with later labor-market outcomes not only among both native-born individuals but also among expellees. Individuals originating from urban regions earn systematically higher daily wages than those born in rural areas, even after controlling for workplace region, education, and occupation. Among displaced individuals, the effects are considerably stronger for women than for men and are especially pronounced for expellees from the Czech lands. The findings suggest that urban-origin advantages were transmitted across generations through education, occupational sorting, and family-specific social and cultural capital. |
| Keywords: | urban origins, forced migration, birthplace effects, lifetime earnings, labor-market outcomes, regional mobility, gender differences, intergenerational transmission |
| JEL: | R12 R23 J24 J61 N34 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18725 |
| By: | Sinara Gharibyan (IOS - Ost- und Südosteuropa verstehen); David Gomtsyan (CREI - Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional - UPF - Universitat Pompeu Fabra [Barcelona]); Èric Roca Fernández (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the relationship between geographic mortality differentials and human capital investment patterns in the Malthusian setup of 19th-century Armenia. We examine how variations in altitude are associated with mortality rates, human capital accumulation, and fertility decisions. Using detailed historical census and parish records, we document that higher-altitude areas tend to have lower population density, lower respiratory disease mortality, and lower overall mortality. Our empirical analysis also shows that individuals in these environments tend to display better numeracy skills and lower fertility rates. These findings align with the Ben-Porath hypothesis, suggesting that longer life horizons encourage shifting from child quantity to quality. Furthermore, these patterns are not driven by income differences or increased female autonomy arising from pastoral agriculture |
| Keywords: | Human capital formation, Mortality, Disease environment, Geography, Armenia |
| Date: | 2026–05–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05654079 |
| By: | Kasprzak, Przemysław |
| Abstract: | The study offers a multidimensional account of the culture of spectacle in the United States, Poland and Europe, examined through the sociology of popular music, the economics of mass events, media, politics, sport, advertising, sponsorship and audience expectations. It discusses major American mega-events such as the Super Bowl Halftime Show, the Grammy Awards and Coachella, alongside European and Polish models of cultural organization, funding, infrastructure and event production. The work shows how contemporary spectacle culture is shaped by a complex interplay of market, social, media-related and institutional factors. |
| Date: | 2026–05–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:q6859_v1 |
| By: | de Nicola, Francesca; Ragoussis, Alexandros; Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim; Tran, Trang Thu |
| Abstract: | Letters of credit are a key trade finance instrument that covers more than 10 percent of global trade, with a notably larger role in low- and middle-income economies. Studying detailed trade data from Viet Nam, this paper documents how the use of letters of credit varies with firm characteristics. The paper shows that the probability of using a letter of credit is systematically lower for younger, smaller, and foreign-owned trading firms. Importers that are less diversified or have less trading experience are more likely to use letters of credit. Firm characteristics have the strongest effects in markets where information is scarce and enforcement is weak. These patterns are consistent with a model in which the ability to screen trading partners and the cost of bank intermediation vary with firm characteristics, and where a firm’s screening ability and country institutions are substitutes. Any policy or intervention that aims at increasing the use of bank-intermediated trade finance will therefore need to take firm heterogeneity into account. |
| Date: | 2026–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11404 |
| By: | Timilsina, Govinda R.; Tran, Chau; Hochman.Gal |
| Abstract: | Viet Nam is committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 15.8% by 2030 and meeting its net-zero emission target by 2050. The industrial sector, including the power sector, is the primary emitter and its active participation is necessary to achieve the targets. This study uses a stated-preference survey Vietnamese firms to understand their preferences in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The study finds that Vietnamese firms prefer to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions through improving energy efficiency, substituting fossil fuels with non-fossil fuels and changing production processes. The ranking of preferences differs across the size, type, ownership and geographical location of firms. Their willingness to reduce emissions is driven by anticipated future regulations, social image, and global trends. They consider the lack of finance to be the main barrier to investing in climate change mitigation measures. The study also finds that if a carbon tax were imposed at 100, 000 local currency (around US$5) per ton of carbon dioxide, over 60% of firms would be willing to invest less than 5% of their annual revenue in greenhouse gas mitigation; only less than 10% of the firms are willing to allocate more than 10% their revenue for greenhouse gas mitigation. The findings also show that larger firms and state-owned firms have a higher willingness to pay for emission mitigation measures. Given the small sample size and static preference approach, the findings should be interpreted as indicative rather than conclusive. |
| Date: | 2026–06–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11406 |
| By: | Grover, Arti; Vézina, Pierre-Louis |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how armed conflict affects the global allocation of foreign direct investment using monthly conflict fatality data matched with project-level greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) and cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) from 2010–2023. The presence of an armed conflict is associated with a decline in the number of greenfield projects (16.5%), FDI associated jobs (15.6%), the number of origin countries (12.4%), and the number of sectors (15.6%). The sensitivity of FDI to conflicts has intensified during 2020–2023, especially so for one-sided violence against civilians. Conflict fatalities that are geographically dispersed within a country are more strongly negatively correlated with FDI, while conflict in neighboring countries also deters FDI. Across sectors, we find that semiconductor and biotech investments are most sensitive to conflict, while sectors like coal, oil, & gas are less affected. A synthetic counterfactual analysis of Ukraine reveals that it lost approximately 10, 000 jobs annually that were directly associated with FDI following the 2014 annexation of Crimea. These patterns quantify the role of conflict in perpetuating development traps and highlight the broader economic stakes it has for development policy. |
| Date: | 2026–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11402 |
| By: | Grzegorz Pakier (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Kateryna Zabarina (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses geographically weighted regression to examine the impact of transport accessibility on the registered unemployment rate. It utilises a transport accessibility index that was previously developed for municipalities in Poland. Analysis of three econometric models revealed that transport accessibility has a significant negative impact on the unemployment rate, which varies across the regions studied. The model using the average transport accessibility of municipalities within a given county showed a stronger relationship with the unemployment rate. This suggests that accessibility at the county level is more important than local accessibility. Furthermore, it was found that the type of municipality had no impact on the strength or direction of the examined relationship. The research confirms that public transport availability significantly influences unemployment levels in Poland, with considerable spatial variation in this relationship. The results emphasise the importance of considering the regional context of transport accessibility when devising anti-unemployment policies. |
| Keywords: | transport accessibility, unemployment rate, geographically weighted regression, transport exclusion, spatial mismatch |
| JEL: | C21 R40 O18 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2026-24 |
| By: | Anna Janicka (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Hayk Amirkhanyan (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Understanding the transition from migration intentions to actual movements remains a challenge in demographic research, often hampered by a persistent intention-behavior gap. This research examines how linguistic variations in individuals' stated migration intentions, particularly on social media, help predict actual movements. We hypothesize that the specific phrasing of the intention reflects the strength and proximity to realization. To verify this claim, we compiled a unique dataset based on migration-related tweets from Polish users posted between 2006 and 2021, identifying potential migrants via Polish keywords that indicated some form of migration intent. The collected statements were manually categorized for linguistic nuances and contextual factors. Actual migration was subsequently tracked by detecting significant country changes (minimum 30 or 180 days) in users' geotagged tweet histories, and logistic regression models were applied to assess the predictive power of different formulations. Our findings demonstrate that the linguistic phrasing of migration intentions correlates significantly with their realization: users employing “planning” keywords were most likely to migrate, while those expressing mere “preferences” were the least likely. Additionally, intentions communicated through multiple tweets, as well as those linked to concrete goals, such as education, positively predicted actual movement. Conversely, tweets with negative contexts, hypothetical conditions, or perceived obstacles were related to a reduced actual migration probability. This study empirically confirms that subtle linguistic variations and contextual elements within spontaneous social media expressions may be treated as indicators of migration intention strength and its likelihood of translating into actual behavior. Our results highlight the importance of differentiating intention forms to enhance migration predictions and refine future survey designs. |
| Keywords: | migration intentions, migration behavior, migration decision-making, intention-behavior gap, social media analysis, Twitter data, geolocated data, linguistic cues, migration prediction, human mobility, Poland |
| JEL: | J61 D91 J10 C55 D83 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2026-23 |
| By: | Kuliš, Zvonimir; Mikulic, Josip; Srhoj, Stjepan |
| Abstract: | This study conceptualizes tourism-led grocery inflation as a cost-of-living externality affecting everyday goods. Using retailer-published price microdata for Croatia, it aggregates 1.3 billion daily observations into monthly datasets covering May-October 2025. Prices are already higher in tourism-intensive coastal municipalities in May and then show additional coastal price growth over the summer, tracing an inverted U-shaped pattern that peaks in July-August and moderates by October. The pattern persists for essential goods and identical barcode-matched products. Retailer responses are heterogeneous: some chains show stronger coastal price increases during the peak season, while others show little or no coastal-inland differential. The findings identify a resident-facing tourism externality and support local cost-of-living monitoring to inform place-sensitive policy. |
| Keywords: | Tourism-led inflation, cost-of-living externality, retail price microdata, seasonality, resident welfare, Croatia |
| JEL: | E31 L83 D12 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1774 |
| By: | Kateřina Mazancová (Faculty of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The main objective of this article is to assess whether changes in agricultural policy instruments influence the structure and volume of agricultural production in the Czech Republic (CR) and whether spatial disparities exist in the distribution of subsidies and payments. The analysis is based on time series data for 2000-2024 (2002-2024 for selected commodities) from the Czech Statistical Office and the Ministry of Agriculture, with nominal values adjusted to constant prices. The relationship between subsidies and production was examined using time-series methods, including causality tests, while spatial patterns were analyzed at the district level using Global and Local Moran's I. The results indicate that total agricultural subsidies are not significantly linked to overall sector performance but show a strong relationship with livestock production, with a lag of approximately five years. At the commodity level, no significant causality was found in most cases. Spatial analysis reveals that most area-based payments do not form stable regional clusters, although significant spatial autocorrelation was identified for selected measures, particularly payments for areas with natural constraints and animal welfare support. The findings suggest that the effects of agricultural policy instruments are structurally selective and spatially differentiated, highlighting the need to consider both sectoral and regional heterogeneity when evaluating policy effectiveness. |
| Keywords: | Common Agricultural Policy, Czech Republic, agricultural subsidies, structural transformation |
| JEL: | Q11 Q18 R12 |
| Date: | 2026–06–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boh:wpaper:01_2026 |
| By: | Gilles Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | By the end of WWII, the distribution of consumer goods in authoritarian regimes-Soviet Union, Maoist China, and Eastern Bloc satellites-transcended its economic role to operate as a strategic instrument of social control and political legitimation. Centralized planning combined quotas, hierarchical store networks, and subtle surveillance mechanisms to shape citizen behavior, organize daily routines, and enforce compliance with ideological objectives. While ensuring political stability, these mechanisms generated structural rigidities and inefficiencies. Comparative analysis of Soviet, Chinese and North Korean trajectories reveals how distribution systems adapted to economic constraints, striking a precise balance between controlled openness and consolidation of central power. Logistics functioned as a decisive lever, modulating public behavior, reinforcing legitimacy, and enhancing organizational performance far beyond conventional convenience good allocation. The historical and ideological specificity of authoritarian regimes highlights contextual limitations yet offers a framework for analyzing contemporary distribution practices. An interdisciplinary approach integrating history, managerial economics, and political science demonstrates how distribution simultaneously advances economic, social, and political goals. These lessons provide concrete benchmarks for designing resilient distribution systems in highly regulated environments. |
| Keywords: | Authoritarian regimes, Distribution, Logistics, Convenience good allocation, Social control |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05640589 |
| By: | Artyom Ghazaryan (Central Bank of Armenia); Anahit Matinyan (Central Bank of Armenia); Gevorg Minasyan (Central Bank of Armenia); Aleksandr Shirkhanyan (Central Bank of Armenia) |
| Abstract: | Quantifying the transmission of monetary policy in emerging markets remains a significant challenge due to data scarcity and structural shifts. This study addresses these constraints by identifying monetary policy shocks in Armenia through a dual approach: a high-frequency method following Bu et al. (2021) and a modified narrative strategy adapted from Romer & Romer (1989). We propose a specific modification to the narrative approach that allows identification even when qualitative information is limited, thereby extending the utility of narrative methods to economies outside the advanced-market spectrum. Despite their distinct methodologies, the shocks identified by both approaches exhibit qualitative consistency. Using these shocks within a Local Projection framework, we estimate the impulse responses of the economic activity index, inflation, the real effective exchange rate, and short-term government bond yields. Our findings indicate that while financial variables respond immediately and sharply to monetary policy, the effect on inflation materializes with a lag. These findings provide a refined empirical basis for understanding monetary policy propagation in Armenia and offer a methodological roadmap for identification in data-limited environments. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy; Shock Identification; High-Frequency; Narrative; Monetary Policy Transmission |
| JEL: | E52 E58 E65 E31 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ara:wpaper:wp-2026-01 |
| By: | de Hoyos, Rafael; Munteanu, Andrei; Pop-Eleches, Cristian |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the impact of the Romania Secondary Education Project, which was designed to improve student retention, graduation rates and pass rates on a national end-of-high-school exam for low-achievement high schools in Romania. The program was implemented in three waves, September 2017, September 2018, and September 2020, with eligible high schools randomly assigned to each. The study exploits this staggered implementation to measure the project’s causal impacts on students. The estimates indicate that the Romania Secondary Education Project had no significant impact on (i) student preferences for attending a program high school, (ii) student retention rates, (iii) high school graduation rates, (iv) enrollment in the post-high school baccalaureate exam, (v) baccalaureate exam pass rates, or (vi) baccalaureate exam scores. There was a small increase in girls’ passing rates (3 percentage points). However, there was little heterogeneity in the null effects by grant size, urban-rural status, student achievement levels, town income levels, and type of curriculum taught. |
| Date: | 2026–06–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11408 |
| By: | Gondauri, Davit |
| Abstract: | This article develops a theoretical and methodological framework for measuring agentic capital through historical indices, using the Georgian Church as a longitudinal institutional case. It argues that durable institutional status emerges from the cumulative interaction of legitimacy, knowledge accumulation and transfer, monastic networks, effective institutional leadership, autonomy, external recognition, and post-shock recovery. Accordingly, the Georgian Church is analyzed as an institution that converted knowledge, canonical authority, reputation, and organizational memory into long-term resilience and international positioning. The empirical foundation is an author-constructed historical-index dataset covering AD 33-1990. Historical events, ecclesiastical statuses, monastic centres, hagiographic evidence, Georgian knowledge networks abroad, and episodes of external recognition are coded on a 0-100 scale and organized into twelve interrelated indices. The analysis combines descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, principal component analysis, HAC-OLS, interaction and threshold specifications, ridge regression, and first-difference event regressions. These techniques are used to examine structured associations, cumulative co-development, and conditional effects within the coded dataset; they are not intended to establish direct historical causality. The results associate the Georgian Church's international institutional positioning with the combined operation of knowledge capital, institutional autonomy, external recognition, and recovery capacity. Georgian monasteries abroad, the network legacy of the Syrian Fathers, the academic traditions of Gelati and Ikalto, and the intellectual and canonical activity of George the Hagiorite and other ecclesiastical actors provide the principal mechanisms through which knowledge was converted into status, and institutional memory was transformed into a resource for recovery. The sequence of abolition in 1811, restoration in 1917, and formal recognition by the Ecumenical Patriarchate in 1990 further shows that the loss of formal autonomy did not eliminate accumulated legitimacy or knowledge capital. The article contributes an econometric framework based on historical indices that connects historical ecclesiology, institutional economics, knowledge-capital theory, and the concept of the agentic economy. Its numerical estimates are generated from an explicit author-coded database and should be interpreted as model-based representations of historical institutional relationships, not as direct statistical observations from the medieval period. |
| Keywords: | agentic capital, Georgian Church, historical institutional economics, monastic knowledge networks, institutional autonomy, external recognition, knowledge capital, historical-index coding, econometric modelling, principal component analysis, HAC-OLS |
| JEL: | B52 C22 C43 C51 D02 N33 N43 O33 O33 Z12 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:341517 |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Mongolia has set out ambitious plans to expand its transport infrastructure in the coming years. As climate-related risks such as floods and droughts intensify, ensuring that transport assets are planned and managed in a climate-resilient way will be critical to avoid locking in long-term vulnerabilities and costs. This policy paper presents findings from an OECD policy dialogue conducted in Mongolia on mainstreaming climate resilience into transport infrastructure planning and design. It outlines the rationale for strengthening climate resilience, takes stock of current policy practices and explores options to adapt transport infrastructure to a changing climate. |
| Keywords: | climate adaptation, climate change, climate resilience, infrastructure, transport |
| Date: | 2026–06–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaac:50-en |