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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Zuchowski, David; Maciel, Mateus |
| Abstract: | Most empirical research finds that immigration has no effect on crime. Nevertheless, public concerns about immigration and crime persist, possibly driven by misperceptions. In this paper, we examine how an immigration shock affects crime perception. Specifically, we analyze the impact of the sudden and large-scale arrival of Ukrainian refugees in Poland following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Using unique data on reported safety concerns, we find a persistent decline in perceived risk in regions more affected by the refugee inflow. We provide additional evidence that this effect stems from a shift in local crime perception due to exposure to war refugees, rather than from a reduction in actual safety threats. |
| Keywords: | Crime, Crime Perception, Safety Concerns, Refugee Migration |
| JEL: | F22 J15 K42 |
| Date: | 2025–11–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127411 |
| By: | Borsekova, Kamila; Korony, Samuel; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Styk, Michal; Westlund, Hans |
| Abstract: | The importance of institutions and innovation for regional development is well established. How these two factors interact under different historical legacies and urban-regional contexts remains, however, insufficiently understood. This paper identifies which combinations of institutional and innovation indicators most effectively classify regions into distinct developmental archetypes, revealing critical thresholds that redirect regional trajectories. Employing decision-tree analysis on 233 EU NUTS-2 regions, we analyse 15 indicators spanning institutional quality, technological readiness, business sophistication, and innovation. This methodology uncovers non-linear relationships that traditional approaches cannot capture. The findings demonstrate that institutional quality acts as a necessary condition for innovation-led growth. High-performing regions, predominantly in Western and Northern Europe, benefit from robust institutions and strong innovation outputs. Many lower-performing regions, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe, exhibit innovation potential but are constrained by governance deficits. By integrating institutional and innovation indicators within a single analytical framework, we underscore how addressing governance and innovation in tandem can result in balanced and sustainable growth across Europe. |
| Keywords: | regional development; institutions; innovation; decision tree modelling; regional competitiveness |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2026–02–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130741 |
| By: | Aleksandar Vasilev (Lincoln International Business School, UK) |
| Abstract: | Housing stock, and the accumulation of utility-enhancing housing capital are introduced as an additional mechanism into a real-business-cycle setup augmented with a detailed government sector. The model is calibrated to Bulgarian data for the period following the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999-2024). The quantitative importance of the presence of housing capital accumulation is investigated for the propagation of cyclical fluctuations in Bulgaria. In particular, allowing for housing considerations in the setup improves the model vis-a-vis data by increasing the variability of employment and decreasing the variability of consumption and investment. However, those improvements are at the cost of decreasing the volatility of wages. The model severely over-predicts variability of housing investment, and wrongly concludes that it is counter-cyclical. Still, the model with housing is a clear improvement relative to the standard RBC setup. |
| Keywords: | business cycles, housing, Bulgaria |
| JEL: | E24 E32 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sko:wpaper:bep-2026-01 |
| By: | Micha{\l} \'Cwi\k{a}ka{\l}a; Dariusz Baran; Gabriela Wojak; Ernest G\'orka; Piotr Czarnecki; Patryk Pa\'s; Marcin Kubera |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of employment flexibility in enhancing the competitiveness of firms using temporary staffing services, with empirical evidence from Poland. The study focuses on how flexible employment arrangements influence operational efficiency, cost reduction, workforce scalability, market responsiveness, and client satisfaction. A quantitative survey was conducted among managers and owners of Polish enterprises that cooperate with temporary staffing agencies, using purposeful sampling to capture informed managerial perspectives. The findings show that employment flexibility significantly reduces downtime, accelerates onboarding processes, and lowers personnel and recruitment costs. Flexible staffing enables rapid workforce scaling during demand fluctuations and facilitates access to specialized skills without long-term commitments. The results also indicate that employment flexibility enhances organizational responsiveness, improves profitability in short-term projects, and strengthens resilience to seasonal and market volatility. Additionally, flexibility is identified as a key determinant of client satisfaction and loyalty toward staffing service providers. The study demonstrates that employment flexibility is not merely a cost-control mechanism but a strategic human resource capability that supports competitiveness, operational adaptability, and sustainable performance in dynamic labor markets. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.14293 |
| By: | Mazen Diwani (Faculty of Social Science, Northeastern University, London (UK)); Al Mamun (Center for Policy and Economic Research (CPER), Dhaka (Bangladesch)); Sherif Hassan (M&S Research Hub) |
| Abstract: | European energy markets experienced unprecedented disruptions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, exposing long-standing structural vulnerabilities in fossil fuel–dependent systems and threatening progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7). This study provides a causal analysis of the conflict’s immediate impact on European energy markets using a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) that leverages the sharp temporal cutoff created by the invasion. Drawing on monthly data for 25 European countries from 2019–2024, we examine four core outcomes: natural gas import volumes, crude oil import volumes, Title Transfer Facility (TTF) natural gas prices, and wholesale electricity prices. Our findings reveal significant supply-side adjustments following the conflict, with natural gas and crude oil imports exhibiting heterogeneous responses depending on pre-war Russian dependency levels. Price dynamics show pronounced but short-lived spikes in TTF gas prices, while electricity market responses are more ambiguous due to bandwidth sensitivity. The results provide empirical evidence of how European energy systems absorbed an exogenous geopolitical shock, highlighting the interplay between supply diversification, market integration, and vulnerability to price volatility. The study contributes to the literature on energy security under geopolitical stress and offers policy-relevant insights into resilience strategies needed to uphold SDG 7 targets during crises. |
| Keywords: | Russia–Ukraine Conflict; Energy Security; Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD); Geopolitical Supply Shocks; European Energy Markets; SDG 7; Sustainability; Market Resilience |
| Date: | 2025–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:msrwps:021995 |
| By: | Milda Valentinaite; Egle Ceponyte; Ingars Zustrups |
| Abstract: | The shift in monetary policy has different repercussions on bank profits depending on the prevalence of fixed or floating interest rates charged on loans. The Baltic states provide a case study of the impact of monetary tightening on profits in predominantly floating interest rates setup amid high liquidity. This paper examines the drivers of the profit surge following 2022-2023 tightening cycle, reviews the fiscal policy responses chosen by Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, and draws tentative lessons on the design and effectiveness of sector-specific windfall taxation. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy, Interest rates, Fiscal policy, fiscal rules, inflation, Baltic countries. |
| JEL: | H25 E43 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:euf:ecobri:086 |
| By: | Drin, Svitlana (Örebro University School of Business); Zhuravlova, Anastasiia (National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy) |
| Abstract: | imely assessment of regional economic activity in Ukraine is severely constrained by institutional and data-related limitations. Official regional gross regional product (GRP) statistics are available only at low frequency, are published with substantial delays, and, in the post-2022 period, are further affected by disruptions to statistical production caused by martial law. At the same time, a growing set of potentially informative regional indicators derived from administrative records and official short-term statistics is available at higher frequencies but only over short and heterogeneous time spans. These features make the direct application of standard regional nowcasting models infeasible. This paper develops a mixed-frequency factor-augmented vector autoregressive framework tailored to the Ukrainian data environment and designed to incorporate short and incomplete regional indicators into the nowcasting of regional GDP. The model explicitly exploits the hierarchical structure of Ukrainian regional statistics by combining information from quarterly and annual measures of economic activity and by linking regional dynamics to national output developments. Short regional indicators are summarised through latent regional factors extracted using missing-data factor estimation techniques that are robust to ragged edges at both the beginning and the end of the sample. The proposed framework is implemented using Ukrainian macro-regional aggregates constructed from official data published by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Particular attention is paid to the treatment of labour market indicators, housing price dynamics, and other short-term variables that exhibit discontinuities or limited availability. A pseudo-real-time nowcasting exercise shows that conditioning regional GDP nowcasts on factor information derived from short regional data improves predictive performance when contemporaneous national GDP estimates are not yet available. Once national aggregates are released, the marginal informational contribution of regional short-term indicators diminishes. Overall, the results demonstrate that mixed-frequency factor-augmented VAR models provide a coherent and empirically viable framework for regional GDP nowcasting in Ukraine. The approach is particularly well suited to data environments 1 characterised by short samples, publication delays, and institutional disruptions, and thus offers a valuable tool for real-time regional economic monitoring in periods of heightened uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | MF-FAVAR; FAVAR; Nowcasting; EMPCA; GRP; Google Trends |
| JEL: | C53 E37 |
| Date: | 2026–01–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2026_001 |
| By: | Primov, Abdulla |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses food security in Uzbekistan, focusing on agricultural diversification, policy reforms, and sustainability challenges. Since gaining independence, Uzbekistan has reduced its reliance on cotton and wheat, expanding production of fruits, vegetables, and livestock to enhance self-sufficiency and improve rural livelihoods. Using secondary data, international reports, and policy analyses, the study identifies progress in reducing hunger and increasing the output of high-value crops. However, constraints such as limited processing infrastructure, water scarcity, dependence on imports, and rural micronutrient deficiencies persist. Recommendations emphasize diversification, technological innovation, and aligning strategies with the Sustainable Development Goals to ensure resilient and sustainable food systems and improved national food security outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Food security, Crop diversification, Agricultural policy, Sustainable development, Uzbekistan |
| JEL: | Q1 Q10 Q18 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:334548 |
| By: | Markevich, Andrej M.; Santavirta, Torsten |
| Abstract: | During the Soviet Union's First Five-Year Plan, Western know-how and technology were extensively infused into industry through technical assistance agreements and work contracts with specialists and foreign companies. We study the causal effects of this purposeful state-led policy on labor productivity using the largest single recruitment effort of Western expertise, namely Karelian Technical Aid. This allows us to exploit exogenous variation in transfer of technology within one sector: the wood processing industry. Combining detailed individual-level data on over 5, 000 North American specialists with a novel panel of accounting data on the universe of Soviet enterprises in Karelia and the Northern Region during the interwar period, we document large and persistent causal productivity gains. Important drivers of successful technology absorption were local human capital and the absence of language barriers. |
| Keywords: | Industrial policy, Technology, Technical assistance, Soviet Union |
| JEL: | J24 N64 O14 O3 P2 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitp:334521 |