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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Gregor, Leonard; Haucap, Justus |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the effect of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 on refinery margins, i.e. the difference between wholesale prices for road fuels (gasoline and diesel) and oil prices in Europe and Germany in particular. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wholesale road fuel prices net of taxes rose by more than 50 cents per liter, whereas crude oil prices increased by only about 30 cents per liter. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we compare refinery margins in Germany with those on the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) spot market, which serves as a European benchmark price. The results indicate that refinery margins in Germany increased by approximately 5-6 cents per liter relative to the ARA region after the invasion. We attribute this differential primarily to Germany's strong dependence on Russian Ural crude oil imports and to the presence of regional market power among German refineries. We further document substantial heterogeneity in treatment effects across both time and regions. In addition, the invasion was associated with a significant decline in fuel demand, with gasoline consumption falling by about 13% and diesel consumption by approximately 9%. |
| Keywords: | Event Study, Ukraine Crisis, Fuel prices, Wholesale markets |
| JEL: | C33 G14 H56 L13 L71 Q41 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:339575 |
| By: | Frangiamore, Francesco; Saadaoui, Jamel |
| Abstract: | Using local projections, this paper documents that neither global geopolitical risk (GPR) shocks nor GPR shocks originating in smaller euro area countries have a significant impact on Euro Area sovereign stress, whereas GPR shocks originating in Germany generate sizable effects, against the backdrop of the recent surge in geopolitical risk following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitical Risk, Sovereign Stress, Local Projections. |
| JEL: | E44 F51 G01 |
| Date: | 2026–01–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127823 |
| By: | Abildgren, Kim; Jensen, Rasmus Mose; Sørensen, Rasmus Rold; Cucic, Dominic; Partsch, Emil Holst |
| Abstract: | Russia's invasion of Ukraine has prompted Denmark and other European countries to significantly boost their military spending. A scenario analysis suggests that meeting the new NATO target of 3.5 per cent of GDP in core defence spending from 2026 onwards may add moderately to capacity pressures in the Danish economy over the next few years. The impact on capacity pressures will depend on several factors including how quickly defence spending is increased and how much of the funds will be spent abroad. |
| Keywords: | defence spending, capacity pressures, NATO, fiscal policy, Denmark |
| JEL: | E62 H56 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:339393 |
| By: | Roeckert, Julian; Mogge, Lukas; Fluhrer, Svenja; Krähnert, Kati |
| Abstract: | This study examines whether receiving anticipatory cash transfers during an extreme winter affects households' demand for index-based livestock insurance. We exploit a randomized field experiment conducted during the 2020/21 winter disaster in western Mongolia and combine household panel survey data with administrative insurance records. We do not find evidence of charity hazard: the estimated effect of anticipatory cash transfers on insurance uptake is small and statistically indistinguishable from zero. The 95% confidence interval rules out large crowding-out effects but remains consistent with small negative effects of up to 2 percentage points. Treatment effects are heterogeneous: among households with prior insurance experience, estimated effects are positive and statistically significant, while effects among previously uninsured households are statistically indistinguishable from zero. These findings suggest that, in contexts where assistance is incomplete and index insurance is well-established, anticipatory assistance does not need to undermine insurance demand. |
| Abstract: | Diese Studie untersucht, ob der Erhalt antizipativer Geldtransfers während eines extremen Winters die Nachfrage von Haushalten nach indexbasierter Viehversicherung beeinflusst. Hierfür nutzen wir ein randomisiertes Feldexperiment, das während der Winterkatastrophe 2020/21 in der Westmongolei durchgeführt wurde, und kombinieren Paneldaten aus Haushaltsbefragungen mit administrativen Versicherungsdaten. Wir finden keine Hinweise auf "Charity Hazard": Der geschätzte Effekt antizipativer Geldtransfers auf den Abschluss von Versicherungen ist gering und statistisch nicht von null zu unterscheiden. Das 95%-Konfidenzintervall schließt große Verdrängungseffekte aus, bleibt jedoch mit kleinen negativen Effekten von bis zu 2 Prozentpunkten vereinbar. Die Effekte der Geldtransfers sind heterogen: Unter Haushalten mit vorheriger Versicherungserfahrung sind die geschätzten Effekte positiv und statistisch signifikant, während die Effekte bei zuvor nicht versicherten Haushalten statistisch nicht von null zu unterscheiden sind. Diese Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass in Kontexten, in denen Unterstützung unvollständig ist und indexbasierte Versicherungen bereits etabliert sind, antizipative Hilfe die Nachfrage nach Versicherungen nicht reduzieren muss. |
| Keywords: | Anticipatory humanitarian assistance, extreme weather events, impact evaluation, index-based insurance, randomized controlled trial, Mongolia |
| JEL: | G22 H84 Q12 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:339615 |
| By: | Dushamova, Khilola; Javed, Rashid; Suyunov, Gayrat; Zakirova, Munira |
| Abstract: | In this study, we use data from the recent round of the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) to estimate the effect of son preference on reproductive behaviour in Uzbekistan. We find strong evidence of differential stopping and spacing behaviour among Uzbek women. Women are significantly less likely to have a subsequent birth if they have at least one son at a given birth order. The effect is particularly strong among rural women at higher birth orders. The likelihood of discontinuation of childbearing increases as the number of sons increases. However, the sex of the firstborn child, whether male or female, plays no role in women's decisions about having additional children. We find that the probability of a subsequent short or risky birth interval is lower among women with at least one son. In addition, women with at least one son are more likely to use contraceptives. These patterns persist regardless of women's age. The findings have important implications for policymakers and practitioners in helping to design targeted interventions and programs in the country to improve reproductive health outcomes, promote gender equality, increase access to family planning services, and support women's reproductive autonomy. |
| Keywords: | Son Preference, Birth Spacing, Fertility, Uzbekistan |
| JEL: | D13 J13 C13 Z10 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1730 |
| By: | Nguyen, Duc Manh (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how the experience of conflict and the framing of post-conflict identity affect trust. In a pre-registered laboratory experiment in Vietnam, implemented shortly after the celebration of the 50th anniversary of the end of the war, 534 partici- pants were randomly assigned to either a treatment group that engaged in a multi-round competitive game intended to simulate conflict (called the “Attacker/Defender†game) (Gross et al., 2022) before playing the Trust game under four identity framings: paired with someone from the opposing group of the conflict, the same group, with no information about partner’s prior group, or with a new, neutral group identity designed to symbolically represent an absence of relation with conflict, or a control group which only take part in the Trust Game. We find that playing the Attacker/Defender game (i.e., being exposed to conflict in the lab) lowers trust by 13–21%, regardless of which side participants were in the conflict. |
| Keywords: | Trust ; Intergroup Conflict ; Identity Framing ; Laboratory Experiment JEL classifications: D91 ; Z13 ; D83 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:wrkesp:94 |
| By: | Narhulan Halimbekh (Unknown); Olympia Campbell (IAST - Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse); Yishan Xie (Unknown); Anar Erjan (Unknown); Anna Dmitrieva (Unknown); Almagul Aisarieva (Unknown); Zhamila Zhalieva (Unknown); Damira Toktorova (Unknown); Cholpon Kabylovna Sooronbaeva (Unknown); Ruth Mace (Unknown) |
| Abstract: | Bride kidnapping, where Women are abducted for marriage, persists in Kyrgyzstan despite being illegal. Although it is estimated that up to one-third of marriages in Kyrgyzstan result from abduction, the true prevalence of this practice is unknown. Estimates are based on self-reporting of a practice that has become illegal. Here we examine whether there are sex and intergenerational differences in this reporting, that reflect a changing legal and social environment that might influence the self-reporting of bride kidnapping marriage. Using data from 468 participants in two Kyrgyz villages collected through 2023, this study examines self-reporting discrepancies in kidnap marriages among married couples. Significant differences were found in how husbands and wives report their marriages: husbands often describe the marriages as consensual, while wives see them as non-consensual. These discrepancies show a convergence over time, with couples married more recently agreeing on the marriage type. Furthermore, fathers often reported their son's marriages as consensual, while the sons themselves reported them as non-consensual, highlighting a generational divide. Our findings suggest a normative transformation driven by cohort replacement, where evolving attitudes toward consent erode the cultural mechanisms sustaining bride kidnapping. This offers insight into the evolutionary dynamics of such gender-biased harmful practices, highlighting how legal reforms and societal pressures reshape perceptions over time. |
| Keywords: | Forced marriage, Bride kidnapping, Kyrgyzstan, Misreport, Misperception |
| Date: | 2025–09–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05551193 |
| By: | Mitja Devetak; Antoine Mandel |
| Abstract: | A number of recent contributions have put forward the topological structure of production networks as a key determinant of macro-economic dynamics. However, firm-to-firm production networks data is generally not available. Against this background, reconstruction method based on firms' size have been developed. This paper enriches this set of reconstruction methods by integrating input-output sectoral flows in the reconstruction process. We derive analytical expressions for the maximum entropy solutions to the firm network reconstruction problem with sectoral input-output constraints, first for binary networks and then for weight reconstruction. We perform a numerical analysis comparing standard and input-output based reconstruction methods using Hungarian production network data. Our results show that adding input-output constraints substantially reduces deviations from the input-output structure compared with standard methods. Our augmented method provides an almost perfect fit to input-output data, though all methods have difficulties reproducing other structural characteristics. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.21895 |