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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Gorodnichenko, Yuriy (University of California, Berkeley); Vasudevan, Vittal (UC Berkeley) |
| Abstract: | Using a short- and long-term macroeconomic forecasts, we estimate the cost of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine for countries in Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia. Shortly after the Russian attack, the projected cost (cumulative over six years) stood at $2.44 trillion for the region. Professional forecasters predicted a dramatic increase in macroeconomic uncertainty, significant spillover effects, some hysteresis effects as well as a changing nature of business cycles. We also use the war shock to study how professional forecasters acquire and process information. Our results point to state dependence as well as an important role of forward information in shaping macroeconomic outlook of professional forecasters. |
| Keywords: | defense, event analysis, geoeconomics, Ukraine, forecasting, conflict, military, uncertainty |
| JEL: | F51 C53 E3 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18017 |
| By: | Varypaiev, Olexii |
| Abstract: | This article examines the transformation of food culture in Ukraine during the full-scale Russian Ukrainian war (2022 to 2025), interpreting nutrition as a key element of cultural resistance, symbolic survival, and national identity. Based on empirical observations, historical analysis, and interdisciplinary methodology, the study explores how traditional Ukrainian food practices, especially the preparation and collective consumption of dishes such as borshch, varenyky, and salo, function as both a response to material deprivation and a reaffirmation of national belonging. The article highlights the role of wartime kitchens, food volunteering, refugee adaptation, and everyday cooking as domains where meaning is produced and cultural memory is maintained under extreme conditions. Particular attention is given to the symbolic and sensory dimensions of food, where taste and smell evoke collective memory and serve as anchors of psychological resilience in displaced and traumatized communities. The article also explores how the wartime experience reshapes the perception of everyday meals, turning them into rituals of continuity and defiance. Furthermore, it addresses the environmental and ethical challenges faced by food systems during the war, including the degradation and contamination of agricultural soils caused by shelling, chemical exposure, and the destruction of ecosystems. This aspect, often overlooked in philosophical or cultural discourse, reveals the deep entanglement between nutrition, ecology, and conflict. By analyzing food through the lens of philosophical anthropology, memory studies, and the sociology of everyday life, the article proposes that nutrition during wartime transcends physical survival and becomes a political, existential, and ethical phenomenon. It concludes that in the Ukrainian context, food practices offer not only nourishment but also resistance, healing, and the continuity of national identity through embodied and affective experience. |
| Date: | 2025–04–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:9xhkw_v1 |
| By: | Vîntu, Denis |
| Abstract: | The budget deficit, defined as the excess of government expenditures over revenues within a fiscal year, is a central indicator of a nation’s fiscal health and a critical variable in macroeconomic policy analysis. This paper examines the budget deficit from both theoretical and applied perspectives, integrating definitions, classifications, and competing economic interpretations. It explores the structural, cyclical, and political economy factors that contribute to fiscal imbalances, as well as the short- and long-term economic implications of persistent deficits for debt sustainability, inflation dynamics, private sector investment, and external sector stability. Special attention is given to the interaction between the budget deficit and the balance of payments through the twin deficits hypothesis, highlighting the mechanisms by which domestic fiscal policy can influence external imbalances. The paper also discusses the principal methods of financing budget deficits and assesses their macroeconomic consequences. The analysis culminates in a case study of the Republic of Moldova, providing historical trends, policy evaluations, and an assessment of fiscal–external linkages. The findings underscore the importance of maintaining a sustainable fiscal stance through a combination of prudent expenditure management, effective revenue mobilization, and coherent coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, while recognizing the role of temporary deficits in counter-cyclical economic management. |
| Keywords: | Budget deficit; Fiscal deficit; Primary deficit; Structural deficit; Cyclical deficit; Public debt; Fiscal policy; Twin deficits hypothesis; Balance of payments; Debt sustainability; No-Ponzi-game condition; Economic growth; Public finance; Government borrowing; Fiscal adjustment. |
| JEL: | E62 F32 F41 H62 H63 O23 P24 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125693 |
| By: | Dancikova, Zuzana |
| Abstract: | Since the 1990s, leave policies for fathers–typically parts of parental leave set aside for fathers–have been gaining popularity as a solution to persisting inequalities in the gendered division of leaves. Research has focused on their contribution to undoing gender and found that changes in parents' division of labour have varied within and across contexts. I argue that to understand the effectiveness of leave policy for fathers, it is helpful to look beyond undoing gender (changes to parents' division of leave), to unstructuring gender (policy effects on multiple dimensions of the gender structure, which, if unchanged, may limit policy effectiveness). To illustrate my argument, I investigate the 2011 Slovak leave policy for fathers, introduced into a context characterized by an inegalitarian gender structure, including societal gendered norms on the division of leave, inegalitarian individual gendered identities and unequal patterns of leave division. Drawing on interviews with 38 mothers and fathers, I find that while the policy has affected a change in parents' leave-division, there was little evidence of change to the prevalent norms or parents' identities. Instead, these dimensions of the gender structure persisted and continued constraining fathers' uptake of the policy and parents' more equal division of leave. |
| Keywords: | gender structure; leave policy for fathers; undoing gender; unstructuring gender |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–08–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129035 |
| By: | Gogova Lea; Hledik Juraj (European Commission - JRC); Klacso Jan |
| Abstract: | Climate change is expected to lead to more frequent and intense extreme weather events, such as floods and droughts, which in turn increase physical risks. In this paper, we assess the direct exposure of Slovak banks' corporate loan portfolios to riverine flood risk. We propose several monitoring metrics and estimate exposures at risk due to riverine flooding. Our analysis leverages a comprehensive dataset that integrates flood risk maps from the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, cadastral data on firm properties, credit register data, and firms' financial statements. While a significant share of firms are located in flood-prone areas, only a subset are likely to face flood levels that exceed critical thresholds. Consequently, the direct impact of riverine flooding on corporate credit risk appears to be relatively moderate — with the estimated increase of exposure at default ranging from 2 to 10 basis points of the corporate loan portfolio under standard scenarios, and up to 50–60 basis points in conservative stress cases accounting for asset value declines. Under counterfactual scenarios assuming a fivefold increase in the frequency of floods, the estimated increase exceeds 1 percentage point of the loan portfolio. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrs:wpaper:202508 |
| By: | Jupić, Nedžad; Gadžo, Amra |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the degree of implementation of artificial intelligence (AI) tools within accounting information systems in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Bosnia and Herzegovina, with the objective of identifying the perceived benefits, key barriers, and their effects on business performance. The research was conducted on a sample of 99 enterprises, utilising a structured questionnaire. Findings reveal that only 21.21% of enterprises currently employ AI tools in their accounting processes, while a mere 20% of respondents make use of advanced document management systems (DMS) or cloud-based solutions—technologies that facilitate integration with AI. The research highlights a generally positive attitude among respondents regarding the impact of AI application on SME operations. The highest average rating was attributed to the statement that AI enhances the efficiency of accounting processes (4.22), followed by improved quality of financial reporting (4.02) and more effective managerial decision-making (3.93), indicating a recognised added value of AI tools in the areas of analytics and decision support. The main obstacles to AI adoption, as identified by respondents, include a lack of knowledge and expertise (3.80) and insufficient regulatory framework (3.73). In terms of financial readiness to invest in AI technologies, 44.40% of enterprises indicated willingness to invest up to approximately EUR 500 annually, 37.40% between EUR 500 and 1, 000, and only 18.20% more than EUR 1, 000. Overall, the findings suggest a significant, yet underutilised potential of AI tools in SME accounting, characterised by favourable user perceptions but constrained by educational, financial, and legislative limitations. |
| Keywords: | AI tools, accounting digitalisation, business enhancement, small and medium-sized enterprises |
| JEL: | M41 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:324135 |
| By: | Davit Gondauri |
| Abstract: | Modern economic systems face unprecedented socioeconomic challenges, making systemic resilience and effective liquidity flow management essential. Traditional models such as CAPM, VaR, and GARCH often fail to reflect real market fluctuations and extreme events. This study develops and validates an innovative mathematical model based on the Navier-Stokes equations, aimed at the quantitative assessment, forecasting, and simulation of liquidity flows and systemic risks. The model incorporates 13 macroeconomic and financial parameters, including liquidity velocity, market pressure, internal stress, stochastic fluctuations, and risk premiums, all based on real data and formally included in the modified equation. The methodology employs econometric testing, Fourier analysis, stochastic simulation, and AI-based calibration to enable dynamic testing and forecasting. Simulation-based sensitivity analysis evaluates the impact of parameter changes on financial balance. The model is empirically tested using Georgian macroeconomic and financial data from 2010-2024, including GDP, inflation, the Gini index, CDS spreads, and LCR metrics. Results show that the model effectively describes liquidity dynamics, systemic risk, and extreme scenarios, while also offering a robust framework for multifactorial analysis, crisis prediction, and countercyclical policy planning. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.05287 |
| By: | Jakub Karnowski; Przemys{\l}aw Szufel |
| Abstract: | Oligarchic control exerts significant distortions on economic efficiency. Ukraine exemplifies this phenomenon, where oligarchs dominate key sectors and achieve economies of scale through vertical integration of coal mines, steel mills, and power plants while controlling critical infrastructure (e.g. access to transportation networks) to stifle competition. Their Soviet-era production chain monopolization strategies, coupled with political patronage networks (including both local and national governments), reinforce systemic inefficiencies and barriers to market entry. Although existing studies highlight the developmental benefits of de-oligarchization, this work advances the literature through computational modeling. We develop an agent-based model of a partially oligarch-controlled economy, where firms with heterogeneous production functions interact within a value-added network. Through numerical simulations, we quantify how different de-oligarchization policies affect aggregate GDP growth. The results indicate that the optimal de-oligarchization strategies are determined by the position of the oligarch in the production chain. Depending on the oligarch's position, dismantling oligarchic structures should either focus on removing oligarchs' access to raw materials or on breaking oligarchs' influence on other transactions in the production chain. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.02949 |