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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Egamberdiev, Bekhzod; Khamidov, Imomjon; Abdushukurov, Jasurbek |
| Abstract: | Environmental problems negatively affect air quality, biodiversity, and socio-economic life in Central Asia. The problems have a slow, gradual, and intense nature; therefore, detecting or following changes in human experience is challenging. This manuscript uses the Life in Transition dataset to analyse climate change awareness and willingness to mitigate among populations from Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Our findings confirm that public perceptions of environmental problems differ, showing the highest concern about air pollution, waste, species loss, temperature, natural disasters, and the spread of disease in Uzbekistan and the Kyrgyz Republic. However, awareness or concern about environmental problems in Tajikistan is relatively low. Although people are ready to contribute to climate change mitigation, citizens from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are less willing to contribute. From a policy point of view, understanding societal concerns about climate change and considering willingness to contribute are important to implementing the climatic policy. |
| Keywords: | environmental problems, climate change, public perception, willingness to contribute, Central Asia |
| JEL: | D70 P48 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126690 |
| By: | Emre Akusta |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes OECD countries in the context of the energy trilemma index and clusters countries with similar characteristics. In the study, the k-means clustering technique is used. The optimum number of clusters was determined using the Elbow method in combination with the Silhouette Index. Moreover, all results are visualized to enhance comprehensibility. The results show that countries such as Austria, Canada, Finland, and Denmark are in the high energy trilemma group with index scores of 82.2, 82.3, 82.7, and 83.3, respectively. Countries in the high group have achieved a high level of balance between energy security, energy equity, and environmental sustainability. In addition, countries such as Belgium, Hungary, Australia, the Czech Republic, and Estonia are in the medium energy trilemma group with index scores of 76.4, 76.6, 77.1, 77.6, and 78.7, respectively. Countries in the medium group have made progress in balancing the dimensions of the energy trilemma but have not yet reached excellence. However, countries such as Mexico, T\"urkiye, Colombia, and Costa Rica are in the low energy trilemma group with index scores of 63.1, 64.1, 64.8, and 69.3, respectively. These low energy trilemma group countries face significant challenges in balancing energy security, energy equity, and environmental sustainability and need to make improvements in these areas. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.00785 |
| By: | Michalek Jerzy; Ciaian Pavel (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Support for young farmers is an important objective in the EU’s agricultural policy framework, aiming to promote generational renewal as a means of enhancing the competitiveness and sustainability of the EU’s agricultural sector. This paper focuses on the economic prospects of young farmers by estimating the microeconomic impacts of rural development programme (RDP) support on the economic performance of young farmers in Poland and Germany between 2007 and 2012. Using the synthetic control method and Farm Accountancy Data Network panel data, we find that the support had mixed effects. In Poland, RDP-supported young farmers underperformed relative to their unsupported counterparts, probably due to the entry of less-performing farmers into the sector, high environmental compliance costs and/or insufficiently tailored policy design. Conversely, old farmers benefited more, probably due to their superior entrepreneurial skills and lower commitment to adopting environmental practices. In Germany, RDP support improved the performance of young farmers, suggesting that it probably addressed some market imperfections. These findings underscore the limitations of a one-size-fits-all approach to supporting young farmers and the need for region-specific policies. Policymakers should mitigate unintended consequences, such as incentivising less-performing entrants, and better tailor interventions to the needs of young farmers. While our findings are specific to Poland and Germany, they contribute to broader policy discussions on the effectiveness of agricultural support for young farmers and highlight the need for further research in different contexts. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc143803 |
| By: | Josef Simpartl (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This article examines forms of direct monetary policy communication and their impact on inflation expectations and the public’s perception of the central bank. To this end, an experiment was conducted in August 2024 with three groups of respondents representative of the Czech population, the first of which was exposed to a monetary policy statement, the second to a related Facebook post, and the third to no information. Respondents who were exposed to the above-mentioned texts significantly reduced their inflation expectations and the link between the inflation expectations and perceived current inflation. At the same time, their knowledge of the monetary policy of the Czech National Bank´s (CNB) improved somewhat. However, none of the groups of respondents changed their opinion on the CNB, with the exception of a slight improvement in the assessment of its communication in the case of the group exposed to the Facebook post. |
| Keywords: | inflation expectations, central bank, communication, social media, survey |
| JEL: | C83 D84 E31 E58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2025_29 |
| By: | Viktoria Alaverdyan (Central Bank of Armenia); Gevorg Minasyan (Central Bank of Armenia); Aleksandr Shirkhanyan (Central Bank of Armenia) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether macroprudential foreign exchange (FX) regulations unintentionally shift currency risk to sectors not directly targeted by such measures. Using a difference-indifferences framework and a highly granular dataset combining loan-level credit registry data with bank-level balance sheet information, we analyse how Armenian banks adjusted their portfolios following the introduction of a differentiated loan-to-value (LTV) regulation that imposed stricter limits on FX-denominated mortgages. The results show that the differentiated LTV, while tightening borrowing conditions for FX-denominated mortgages, also led to an increase in the dollarization of business loans and a higher share of foreign-currency bonds in banks' portfolios. These shifts imply that FX-related macroprudential policies can reallocate rather than reduce currency risk, emphasizing the need for system-wide oversight to prevent its build-up in unregulated segments of the financial system. |
| Keywords: | Macroprudential policy; Foreign exchange regulation; Loan-to-value limits; Dollarization; Bank portfolio reallocation |
| JEL: | E58 G21 G28 F31 E44 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ara:wpaper:wp-2025-04 |
| By: | Anahit Matinyan (Central Bank of Armenia) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to inflation in Armenia using monthly data from 2008-2023. Combining reduced-form estimation with a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, it provides evidence on both average and shock-specific ERPT. The analysis yields three key findings. First, exchange rate fluctuations affect domestic prices primarily through the U.S. dollar exchange rate, confirming the relevance of the dominant currency paradigm. Second, ERPT is highly heterogeneous across consumer price index (CPI) components, with larger effects for tradable and imported goods and limited responses for non-tradables and services. Notably, imported prices display a short-run asymmetry, with depreciations eliciting stronger responses than appreciations of comparable size. Third, ERPT is shock-dependent: monetary policy shocks generate the strongest and most persistent pass-through, underscoring the importance of the exchange rate channel in Armenia's monetary transmission mechanism. The results remain consistent across methods, reinforcing their robustness and offering policy-relevant insights for small, dollarized economies pursuing inflation targeting under external volatility. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Price Level, Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate Pass-Through |
| JEL: | E31 E52 F31 F41 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ara:wpaper:wp-2025-05 |
| By: | Viet Lien Le (Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Suite 305 - 307, 12 Trang Thi Street, Hoan Kiem, Hanoi); Tu Anh Bui (Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Suite 305 - 307, 12 Trang Thi Street, Hoan Kiem, Hanoi); Anh Ngoc Nguyen (Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Suite 305 - 307, 12 Trang Thi Street, Hoan Kiem, Hanoi); Ngoc-Minh Nguyen (Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Suite 305 - 307, 12 Trang Thi Street, Hoan Kiem, Hanoi) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops and tests a Nash bargaining model of household labor allocation. The model explains how spouses allocate their time to housework by maximizing joint utility while accounting for outside options such as income opportunities. In this framework, the spouse contributing more earnings gains stronger bargaining power and can negotiate a smaller share of housework. Using Vietnamese panel data from 2018 and 2020, we estimate a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) system to examine how relative income influences household labor division. The results show that women with higher relative income reduce their housework time. Moreover, relative income affects the reallocation between spouses: husbands increase their contribution to domestic tasks while wives reduce theirs. For specific activities, relative income decreases wives’ time on both pure household chores and caregiving. Our findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence from a developing Asian country and underscore the importance of women’s economic empowerment in promoting gender equality in unpaid work. |
| Keywords: | Household decisions, Nash, |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpc:wpaper:0196 |
| By: | Nguyen Quang Thanh (Faculty of Economic Law, University of Economics and Law, VNU-HCM, Vietnam Author-2-Name: Author-2-Workplace-Name: Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | " Objective - This paper aims to analyze the Vietnamese legal framework on the prevention and abolition of child labor under the influence of the EU–Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA). The study explores how EVFTA commitments, particularly those embedded in the Trade and Sustainable Development (TSD) Chapter, shape Vietnam's legal reforms, institutional adjustments, and enforcement responsibilities relating to child labor. Methodology - The research employs a qualitative approach based on analysis, synthesis, and comparison of secondary data, including international conventions, Vietnamese legislation, academic publications, policy reports, and EVFTA provisions. The study examines the interaction between trade law and labor standards using theoretical lenses such as legalization theory and normative diffusion. Findings - The results show that Vietnam has aligned key elements of its domestic legal framework with ILO Conventions Nos. 138 and 182 following the EVFTA. This alignment is reflected in the establishment of a statutory minimum working age, clearer prohibitions on hazardous work, strengthened child protection standards, and increasing attention to child labor data collection. However, significant enforcement challenges persist, including limited inspection capacity, inconsistent administrative reporting, a large informal labor sector, and socio-economic drivers that continue to push children into labor. Novelty - The originality of this study lies in its integrated analysis of Vietnam's child labor regulations within the broader context of new-generation FTAs, highlighting how trade commitments can influence domestic labor governance. The paper contributes a legal-institutional perspective that links EVFTA obligations with practical implementation barriers, offering insights into compliance expectations shaped by recent developments in EU trade policy. Type of Paper - Review" |
| Keywords: | Commitment to abolish child labor; EVFTA; Labor standards; New-generation FTA; Vietnamese law. |
| JEL: | F13 J83 J88 K31 K33 |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jber263 |
| By: | Tatul Hayruni (Central Bank of Armenia); Mane Pirumyan (Central Bank of Armenia); Aleksandr Shirkhanyan (Central Bank of Armenia) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines depositor behavior during two episodes of system-wide withdrawal pressure in Armenia, a small, open, and highly dollarized economy. Using depositor-level administrative data covering 60–73 percent of the national deposit portfolio, we study early withdrawals during the 2014 exchange-rate and financial-market shock and the 2020 geopolitical shock, both characterized by sizable outflows despite the absence of bank-specific solvency stress. This environment allows us to analyze how contract characteristics, currency denomination, and depositor–bank relationships shape withdrawal decisions under uncertainty. We exploit Armenia’s dual-currency deposit insurance regime to assess how currency-specific coverage interacts with exchange-rate risk, and we use legally defined insider classifications to identify individuals with formal ties to bank governance. We find that deposit insurance has a clear stabilizing effect, though insured depositors still adjust behavior modestly as balances approach the coverage limit. Insiders, despite lacking insurance and plausibly possessing superior information, do not withdraw more aggressively than the broader public. Prior crisis experience reduces the likelihood of withdrawal in subsequent shocks, and dual-currency depositors disproportionately redeem AMD deposits, consistent with depreciation-driven precautionary motives. These results underscore how currency composition, contract design, and relational ties shape withdrawal pressures under macro-financial stress. |
| Keywords: | Depositor Behavior, Deposit Insurance, Early Withdrawals, Financial Shock, Geopolitical Shock |
| JEL: | D81 G01 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ara:wpaper:wp-2025-06 |
| By: | Vladimir Yeghiazaryan (Central Bank of Armenia); Arthur Grigoryan (Central Bank of Armenia); Ashot Sargsyan (Central Bank of Armenia) |
| Abstract: | In recent years, macroprudential policy has gained importance as a tool to handle cyclical and structural vulnerabilities in the financial system. These vulnerabilities, if left unmonitored, can amplify during periods of financial stress and pose significant risks to economic growth. This paper attempts to quantify these vulnerabilities and the effects of macroprudential policy on them through the use of an empirical growth-at-risk (GaR) framework. Using Bayesian quantile regression, we assess how systemic risks impact GDP growth and explore the potential costs and benefits of macroprudential policy on its growth distribution. Our findings are consistent with earlier studies suggesting that any policy measure introduces a trade-off between mitigating systemic risks and preserving median GDP growth. We contribute to the existing literature by two main ways 1. we estimate the long term sustainable level of systemic risks relative to the resilience of the financial system using estimates of a panel model with 41 countries, 2. we offer improvements to existing macroprudential policy rule frameworks in the current literature to augment the decision-making process. Lastly, we check whether the outputs of some well-known papers in this field hold in a small open economy like Armenia. |
| Keywords: | Systemic risk, Macroprudential policy, Financial stability, Policy stance |
| JEL: | E58 E44 G21 E61 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ara:wpaper:wp-2025-01 |
| By: | Thesia Garner; Peter F. Lanjouw; Brett Matsumoto; Gintare Mazeikaite; Teresa Munzi; Jörg Neugschwender; Heba Omar; Jake Schild |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to take stock of the different conceptual elements of consumption as defined and applied in emerging and advanced countries, and data collection efforts based on household surveys. This work diverges from the Eurostat-OECD EG and other country-specific analyses that focus on consumption from a national accounts’ perspective (OECD 2024; Zwijnenburg et al. 2021). In doing so, we contribute to the discussion of how to guide statistical authorities in building a consumption-based economic well-being measure at the household level. The purpose of this paper is twofold: (1) to further clarify the conceptual framework for defining a comparable consumption-based well-being concept; and (2) to provide an empirical, descriptive, distributional analysis by consumption components and demographic groups across low, middle and high-income countries. This comparative work is based on nine country case studies: Mali, Laos, Palestine, Peru, Georgia, Italy, France, the United Kingdom (U.K.), and the United States (U.S.). We first provide an update of Mancini and Vecchi (2023) concerning the aggregation plan and variable detail in a potential Luxembourg Consumption Study database and provide comparisons to the OECD ICW framework (2013) and COICOPs 2018 definitions of consumption components. The empirical section first presents the core differences in the analyzed surveys and then provides a distributional analysis. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first analysis of consumption patterns across low, middle and high-income countries as a set. We conclude that there are challenges concerning what to include or exclude in consumption, for example, with regard to what to consider as durables, shelter maintenance and repairs, and accounting for insurance. In addition, we discuss the major considerations as to whether health and education expenditures should be part of an economic well-being measure. We also find that data for own-produced goods for consumption are often collected for emerging economies, but they are systematically missing in expenditure surveys conducted by high-income countries. The importance of equivalence scales is discussed with reference to major differences in consumption inequality across countries. Finally, the decomposition of the Gini coefficient highlights how the structure of consumption and its impact on inequality shifts with economic development, with basic needs driving inequality in poorer countries and more diverse consumption patterns driving it in wealthier nations. |
| JEL: | D3 E2 I3 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:912 |