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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Tereza Vesela (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic & The Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Information Theory and Automation); Jaromir Baxa (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic & The Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Information Theory and Automation) |
| Abstract: | To estimate the impact of disagreement about expected inflation on the transmission of monetary policy in the Czech Republic, this article makes three novel contributions to the literature. First, we reconstruct a series of inflation expectations and calculate their disagreement from qualitative expectations of future price developments back to 2001. We document the limited anchoring of expectations despite consistently low inflation close to or below the inflation target. Second, we infer monetary policy shocks from high-frequency financial data, bringing a novel perspective on the policy of the Czech National Bank. Third, using smooth-transition local projections, we find that when disagreement about future inflation is high, the transmission of unanticipated monetary policy surprises is weakened: inflation and inflation expectations display muted or even counterintuitive (positive) responses to policy tightening. This suggests that in such environments, policy surprises are interpreted less as changes in the stance of policy and more as signals about underlying economic conditions, consistent with the signalling effect of monetary policy highlighted in recent literature. Our findings suggest that unanticipated monetary policy is more effective when disagreement is low, implying that clear communication strategies and, where needed, stronger policy reactions to inflation can play a role in improving transmission. Our results have profound implications for the formulation and implementation of monetary policy in small open economies where central banks in practice consider interest rate differentials vis-Ã -vis main central banks in their policy decisions. |
| Keywords: | Inflation Expectations; Monetary Policy Transmission; Disagreement; High-Frequency Identification; Regime-Switching Models; Local Projections |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 C32 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2025_19 |
| By: | Khakimov, Parviz; Ashurov, Timur; Goibov, Manuchehr; Aliev, Jovidon |
| Abstract: | This study examines the growth and challenges in Tajikistan’s agriculture sector, highlighting its role as a key driver of the country’s development despite significant constraints and challenges, including inputs scarcity and climate change. The agriculture sector has seen an increase in gross outputs and sectoral value added, contributing to domestic needs due to population and income growth. However, Tajikistan still has the lowest agricultural value added per worker in Central Asia and remains a net importer of agrifood products, primarily due to the underdevelopment of the food processing sector. Key growth drivers include sectoral reforms, shifts in land allocation, and government incentives. Despite these efforts, regional disparities in productivity persist, and access to inputs such as fertilizers and mechanization remains limited. The paper emphasizes the need for improved access to finance, agricultural inputs, and extension services to ensure sustainable development and food security. Recommendations include enhancing the capacity of national agricultural research and development institutions, promoting climate-smart agriculture, and improving water and irrigation management. Additionally, the study underscores the importance of developing the livestock sector through improved feeding, breeding, and veterinary services. Overall, a comprehensive approach addressing policy, institutional, economic, and technological gaps is crucial for the sustainable advancement of Tajikistan’s agriculture sector. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; development; policy analysis; reforms; Tajikistan; Asia; Central Asia |
| Date: | 2024–12–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:168997 |
| By: | Pechtl, Sarah; Mardonova Tolibkhonovna, Mohru; Ergasheva, Tanzila; Lambrecht, Isabel B. |
| Abstract: | Tajikistan faces food insecurity and multiple forms of malnutrition in its population, with women particularly at risk. Social norms related to gender and intrahousehold hierarchy are pervasive and are commonly upheld in household roles. Yet, how gender may impact dietary intake in Tajikistan remains to be studied. Understanding this mechanism is critical to develop adequate strategies for effective, equitable progress in mitigating malnutrition and food insecurity. mixed-methods study was conducted to assess the extent and identify the drivers of gender-based and intrahousehold differences in dietary intake in Khatlon Province, Tajikistan. Predictors of food intake and dietary diversity were statistically assessed using quantitative survey data from 1, 704 individuals collected in winter- and springtime 2023. Qualitative data from 12 focus group discussions, 20 individual interviews, and 22 Photovoice interviews collected in winter- and springtime 2024 was analyzed using reflexive thematic analysis to further ascertain and understand these drivers. We find gender differences in dietary diversity, with women reporting lower dietary diversity than men, even when comparing men and women living in the same household. Among women, there are significant differences in dietary diversity based on their role in the household. Gendered social norms and intrahousehold power relations influence food acquisition, preparation, distribution, and consumption. Men, particularly household heads, and children tend to be prioritized over women in consuming food products that are deemed more nutritious (e.g., meat). Women adapt their food intake to meet the expectations and needs of other household members. This study highlights the importance of considering household dynamics and gender roles when creating programs and policies aiming to equitably address food and nutrition insecurity and malnutrition. The findings suggest that mitigating malnutrition in Tajikistan will necessitate gender equity-focused social behavior change interventions targeting women and men across different generations. |
| Keywords: | food security; malnutrition; gender; diet; intrahousehold relations; dietary diversity; Tajikistan; Central Asia |
| Date: | 2024–11–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:162924 |
| By: | Deininger, Klaus W.; Ali, Daniel Ayalew; Nataliia, Kussul; Lemoine, Guido; Shelestov, Andrii; Shumilo, Leonid |
| Abstract: | This paper explores whether satellite imagery can be used to derive a measure to estimate conflict-induced damage to agricultural production and compare the results to those obtained using media-based conflict indicators, which are widely used in the literature. The paper combines area for summer and winter crops from annual crop maps for 2019–24 with measures of conflict-related damage to agricultural land based on optical and thermal satellite sensors. These data are used to estimate a difference-in-differences model for close to 10, 000 Ukrainian village councils. The results point to large and persistent negative effects that spill over to conflict-unaffected village councils. The predicted impact is three times larger, with a distinctly different distribution across key domains (for example, territory controlled by Ukraine and the Russian Federation) using the preferred image-based indicator as compared to a media-based indicator. Satellite imagery thus allows defining conflict incidence in ways that may be relevant to agricultural production and that may have implications for future research. |
| Date: | 2025–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11221 |
| By: | Benfica, Rui; Hossain, Marup; Davis, Kristin E.; Boukaka, Sedi Anne; Azzarri, Carlo |
| Abstract: | Sustainable agrifood systems (AFS) provide food security and nutrition without compromising economic, social, and environmental objectives. However, many AFS generate substantial unaccounted for environmental, social, and health costs. True cost accounting (TCA) is one method that adds direct and external costs to find the “true cost” of food production, which can inform policies to reduce externalities or adjust market prices. We find that for Kenya— considering the entire food system, including crops, livestock, fishing, and value addition sectors at the national level—external costs represent 35 percent of the output value. Social costs account for 73 percent of the total external costs, while environmental costs are 27 percent. In contrast, in Viet Nam, where total external costs represent 15 percent of the output value, the environmental costs (75 percent) dominate social costs. At the subnational level, in the three Kenyan counties (Kisumu, Vihiga, and Kajiado) covered by the CGIAR Research Initiative on Nature-Positive Solutions (NATURE+), external costs (or the true cost gap) represent about 30 percent of all household crop production costs. Those external costs are overwhelmingly dominated by social (84 percent) over environmental (16 percent) externalities. In Viet Nam's Sa Pa and Mai Son districts, external costs represent about 24 percent of all household crop production costs. Environmental externalities (61 percent) are greater than social ones (39 percent). In Kenya, forced labor is the main social (and overall) external impact driven by factors ranging from "less severe" financial coercion to "more severe" forms of physical coercion. Land occupation is the most important environmental impact, resulting from occupation of lands for cultivation rather than conservation, while underpayment (low wages) and low profits are important social costs that are closely associated with the prevailing gender wage gap and occurrence of harassment. Soil degradation is the only other environmental impact, linked with the use of inorganic fertilizers (60 percent of households) and pesticides (36 percent). In Viet Nam, land occupation is the most important external impact, followed by soil degradation and contributions to climate change, primarily due to widespread use of inorganic fertilizers (98 percent of households) and pesticides (93 percent). Underpayment and insufficient income are significant social costs, followed by the gender wage gap and child labor. Crop production systems in Kenya exhibit relatively high labor-related costs compared with nonlabor inputs, with relatively lower intensity in the use of inorganic fertilizer and other chemical inputs and lower crop yields. This production system leads to relatively greater social externalities. Conversely, crop yields in Viet Nam are significantly higher than those in Kenya, likely due to the extensive use of inorganic fertilizers representing the largest direct cost component and leading to a relatively higher level of environmental externalities. Because external costs represent a significant part of the total cost of food production, policy and investments to minimize these costs are essential to a nature-positive AFS that is environmentally sustainable and socially equitable. Strategies to reach this goal include regulatory adjustments, investments in resource efficient infrastructure and technologies that minimize costs, and the prudent management of environmentally impactful production inputs and factors. |
| Keywords: | agrifood systems; environment; food security; sustainability; true cost accounting; food production; Kenya; Vietnam; Africa; South-eastern Asia; Asia; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–09–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:152074 |
| By: | Glauber, Joseph W.; Mamun, Abdullah |
| Abstract: | Rice is a major food crop supplying, on average, 516 kcal per capita per day or roughly 17.3% of total calories consumed globally in 2022. Rice production and consumption is concentrated in Asia though rice has grown as an important staple crop outside of Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa currently accounts for 7 percent of global rice consumption but account for over 28 percent of total rice imports. Rice is a thinly traded crop compared to other staples like wheat and maize. Rice imports account for about 10 percent of total consumption today but import penetration is expected to grow to about 11 percent by 2033. India is the world’s largest exporter accounting for about 40 percent of total exports in recent years. Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam and the United States account for an additional 40 percent of world exports. Mid-range projections for the next 10 years suggest that trends in place will likely continue. Yields are assumed to keep pace with global consumption trends. Sub-Saharan Africa will account for a significant share of the overall growth in consumption. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that Sub-Saharan Africa will account for 27 percent of the growth in global rice consumption and 47 percent of the growth in global imports over the next 10 years. Climate and government distortions remain the single largest vulnerabilities to the rice market. Because of the large concentration of rice production in South and Southeast Asia, crop production is vulnerable to El Niño and other climatic events like the Indian Ocean Dipole which can bring hot and dry weather and disrupt the monsoon season. Since rice is so thinly traded, market restrictions imposed by one of more of the major exporting countries can cause large price impacts. In 2007/08, export bans affected as much as 80 percent of rice trade which caused global prices to almost triple. In July 2023, India imposed export restrictions fearing that domestic production would be harmed by a developing El Nino event. Global rice prices rose by 30 percent as a result. Importing countries bore much of the brunt of those increases, particularly poorer countries in the rice-importing areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. Other potential vulnerabilities include logistical issues, particularly bottlenecks in the major shipping lanes of Asia. |
| Keywords: | climate; rice; risk; trade; vulnerability |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:168523 |
| By: | Tomic, Slobodan; Dragicevic, Ognjen |
| Abstract: | This article examines the transformation of Serbia’s regulatory state under the populist regime of Aleksandar Vučić (2012–2025), a period marked by democratic backsliding and heavy reliance on foreign direct investment (FDI). Focusing on competition policy and a subsidy programme for foreign investors, it shows how the regime has reshaped the regulatory state in ways distinct from other autocratic populist contexts. Core institutional carriers of the regulatory state have remained in place as non-majoritarian institutions and were even granted greater de jure insulation from government, yet in practice they have been undermined and their authority - along with that of other institutions in the wider regulatory ecosystem (law enforcement bodies, inspectorates, and others) - systematically suppressed. The result is an eroded, hybridised model of the regulatory state: the government has carved out a role for itself to decisively shape and direct sectoral policy, often in an arbitrary manner, with a distinct form of deregulation, namely through the outright non-enforcement of substantial regulatory standards. |
| Date: | 2025–09–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:3zt62_v1 |
| By: | Cao, Gewei (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, Microeconomics & Public Economics); Rusch, Hannes (RS: GSBE UM-BIC, Microeconomics & Public Economics, RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research) |
| Abstract: | Human trafficking is a modern form of slave trading. While we know that it inflicts substantial damage on its victims, its broader societal impact is not well understood. Inspired by Nunn & Wantchekon (2011, AER), we study whether human trafficking shapes interpersonal trust in two severely affected countries for which suitable criminal statistics and survey data are available: Romania and India. We find that victimization rates at the sub-national level are robustly linked to lower interpersonal trust. Our results corroborate those of Nunn & Wantchekon, conceptually replicate them in the economics of crime, and highlight their persistent contemporary relevance. |
| JEL: | J47 D91 J83 K42 O17 |
| Date: | 2025–09–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umagsb:2025008 |