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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Suproń, Błażej |
| Abstract: | The contemporary economy depends on an effective transportation system, and road haulage assumes a crucial function in fostering dynamic economic growth and commerce. This article aims to investigate the influence of various road transportation modes on economic growth in the Visegrad countries. In this study, the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model was employed to scrutinize the asymmetrical impact of various transport modes on GDP. We used quarterly data from 2004–2021 for the Visegrad countries. In addition, a Toda-Yamamoto test was performed to establish causality between variables. The study found evidence of differing impacts of transport modes on economic growth in the examined countries. Specifically, international, and cross-trade transport had a balanced effect on GDP growth, whereas cabotage and domestic transport had an imbalanced impact. The Toda-Yamamoto method's causality analysis results demonstrate bidirectional causality between freight work and GDP in both international and domestic transportation for the Czech Republic, Poland, and Poland's cross-trade. On the other hand, unidirectional causality was established for cross-trade in Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. Based on the conducted estimation, it was deduced that the impact of specific transport modes on economic growth is uneven and reliant on both the transport mode and the country. The significant results obtained hold critical implications for economic policy, enabling the adaptation of strategies and regulations to foster growth based on variances in the influence of road transportation on the economy. |
| Keywords: | road transport; economic growth; NARDL; asymmetric effects; Toda-Yamamoto; causality |
| JEL: | C1 C32 E0 R40 |
| Date: | 2023–12–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125426 |
| By: | Dominika Langenmayr; Mikayel Tovmasyan; Sebastian Vosseler |
| Abstract: | Are sanctions bypassed by hiding money offshore? Using bilateral data on bank deposits, we compare how offshore deposits from sanctioned versus nonsanctioned countries develop after the U.S. and the EU impose financial sanctions. Sanctions targeting individuals increase offshore deposits, as (potential) targets attempt to hide their funds. Broader financial sanctions reduce offshore (and other foreign) deposits, as money is repatriated. A synthetic control case study of Russia following the annexation of Crimea confirms our main findings, showing a 15% post-sanction increase in offshore deposits. These findings highlight the limits of symbolic sanctions and the need for secondary sanctions and financial surveillance. |
| Keywords: | Sanctions, tax havens, illicit financial flows |
| JEL: | F51 H12 K42 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bav:wpaper:243_langenmayr_tovmasyan_vosseler.rdf |
| By: | Joop Age Harm Adema; Lasha Chargaziia; Yvonne Giesing; Sarah Necker; Panu Poutvaara |
| Abstract: | Refugees' decisions to return after conflict carry significant political and economic implications for the origin and host countries. We examine how conflict resolution, security, economic conditions, and corruption influence return decisions. To estimate the causal effect of post-war conditions, we conducted a single-profile conjoint experiment among 2543 Ukrainian refugees across 30 European countries. Respondents were asked how likely they would be to return to Ukraine under different hypothetical scenarios. Results show that territorial integrity and security guarantees are critical, while economic prospects and combating corruption also play an important role. Refugees planning to return are more responsive to different post-war scenarios, and younger respondents are particularly influenced by income opportunities, job prospects, and potential EU accession. Our findings suggest that targeted political and economic reconstruction policies can substantially influence post-conflict return. In the most optimistic scenario, the expected return rate is 47%; in the most pessimistic scenario, only 3%. |
| Keywords: | refugees, return migration, conflict, integration, Ukraine, conjoint experiment |
| JEL: | F22 D74 O15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12118 |
| By: | Golebiowska-tataj Daria; Reimeris Ramojus (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | In the era of global geopolitical shifts, innovation and entrepreneurship are essential to Europe’s resilience, competitiveness, and strategic autonomy. This paper focuses on increase Europe’s competitiveness through instruments feeling innovation and entrepreneurial culture. The paper analyzes the position of European Union at national and regional level according to various global innovation indexes. It examines how to leverage the power of key innovation regions in Europe and how to tap on the potential of the most dynamic innovation hubs in Central and Eastern Europe. The authors examine quantitative databased and present two cases of Paris and Vilnius. The analysis leads to a conclusion that European innovation policy needs to reexamine innovation instruments which are not sufficiently focused on competitiveness and invest more in such instruments as for example the European Innovation Council. On the other hand, the most dynamic innovation ecosystems in CEE regions should be better networked with the leading hubs and used to test new policy approaches. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc142615 |
| By: | Dirks, Maximilian W. |
| Abstract: | Geopolitical conflicts significantly reshape global investment patterns, potentially creating unexpected economic opportunities. Using the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a quasi-exogenous shock, this study estimates the impact of redirected foreign direct investment (FDI) flows on economic output in bloc-free countries following this major geopolitical event. Employing a Difference-in-Differences model using Orbis Crossborder investment data, the findings reveal a sharp decline in Western FDI into Russia and Russia-leaning countries, alongside a significant increase in cross-border investment in bloc-free nations, with Brazil, India, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia among the primary beneficiaries. Using a Bayesian VAR, I estimate that these windfall FDI have increased GDP in the recipient countries by up to 2 %, underscoring the economic benefits associated with geopolitical neutrality. |
| Abstract: | Geopolitische Konflikte verändern die globalen Investitionsmuster erheblich und können unerwartete wirtschaftliche Chancen eröffnen. Die russische Invasion in die Ukraine bietet die Möglichkeit, die Auswirkungen umgeleiteter ausländischer Direktinvestitionen (FDI) auf die Wirtschaftsleistung blockfreier Länder im Zuge dieses bedeutenden geopolitischen Ereignisses zu untersuchen. Unter Verwendung eines Differenz-in-Differenzen-Modells und von Orbis-Daten zu grenzüberschreitenden Investitionen zeigen die Ergebnisse einen starken Rückgang westlicher FDI in Russland und russlandfreundlichen Staaten sowie einen deutlichen Anstieg der Investitionen in blockfreien Ländern. Zu den Hauptnutznießern zählen Brasilien, Indien, Mexiko und Saudi-Arabien. Mittels eines Bayesianischen VAR-Modells schätze ich, dass diese exogenen Direktinvestitionen das BIP in den Empfängerländern um bis zu 2% gesteigert haben - ein Befund, der die wirtschaftlichen Vorteile geopolitischer Neutralität unterstreicht. |
| Keywords: | Foreign direct investment, geoeconomics, fragmentation |
| JEL: | F21 F23 F51 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:325493 |
| By: | Dinarte-Diaz, Lelys; Gresham, James; Lemos, Renata; Patrinos, Harry A.; Rodriguez-Ramirez, Rony |
| Abstract: | This paper provides insights into human capital investments during wartime by presenting evidence from three experiments of an online tutoring program for Ukrainian students amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Conducted between early 2023 and mid- 2024, the experiments reached nearly 10, 000 students across all regions of Ukraine. The program offered three hours per week of small-group tutoring in math and Ukrainian language over six weeks, and used academic and psychosocial tools to address student challenges at different intensities of disruption. Results show that the program led to substantial improvements in learning-up to 0.49 standard deviations in math and 0.40 standard deviations in Ukrainian language-and consistent reductions in stress-up to 0.12 standard deviations. High take-up and engagement rates were observed, and four mechanisms were identified as drivers of impact: structured peer interactions, improved attitudes toward learning, enhanced socio-emotional skills, and increased student investments. A complementary experiment using information nudges to increase parental engagement highlights challenges in promoting parental investments in a conflict setting. The program was cost-effective across all experiments, with benefit-to-cost ratios ranging from 31 to 56, and scalable given its reliance on existing infrastructure and teaching capacity. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine, wartime, tutoring, student achievement, mental health |
| JEL: | I21 I24 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1663 |
| By: | Wataru Kodama (International Fund for Agricultural Development); Dina Azhgaliyeva (Asian Development Bank); Peter Morgan (PJM Consulting) |
| Abstract: | Literature links food insecurity to adverse welfare outcomes, including the educational performance of children. This paper investigates whether food insecurity, exacerbated by recent food inflation, has hindered schoolchildren’s recovery from learning loss following coronavirus disease-related school closures. We examine this relationship using household data collected in 2023 from nine countries (Afghanistan, Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan)—severely affected by food inflation. Our data document high severity of food insecurity and limited perceived learning progress after schools reopened in many countries. Using a novel instrumental variable, the relative severity of food inflation compared to general inflation, we find a causal link between households’ food insecurity and delays in learning progress after schools reopened. This effect is particularly pronounced among schoolchildren in higher grades and those who experienced longer durations of school closure, suggesting that food insecurity hampered recovery from learning loss during the school closure. |
| Keywords: | food inflation;food security;learning progress;Central Asia and Caucasus;South Asia |
| JEL: | I32 I24 Q18 D12 |
| Date: | 2025–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:021552 |
| By: | Vîntu, Denis; Balaban, Georgiana |
| Abstract: | This paper presents two objectives: in the first part, we make a presentation of interest rate equations in a historical overview, from Irwing Fisher to John Maynard Keynes. Second part is designed to quarterly estimated structural macro econometric model for the Republic of Moldova, denoted A Classical Macroeconometric Data Model for the Republic of Moldova (MDM) in context of Neo-Classical Approach of the Economy. This model has been developed with four uses in mind: the assessment of economic conditions in the Republic of Moldova, macroeconomic forecasting, policy analysis and deepening understanding of the functioning of market economy. |
| Keywords: | Republic of Moldova, macroeconometric modelling, open and small economy; inflation; interest rate; economic growth; Classical economics; Keynesian economics. |
| JEL: | C13 E21 E30 E41 E44 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125856 |
| By: | Vîntu, Denis |
| Abstract: | We contend that ambivalence or uncertainty regarding the error terms may be the root cause of many methodological misunderstandings in time-series econometrics. Macroeconomic time series have imprecise relationships, and early econometricians invariably discovered that any estimated relationship would only fit with errors. Second part is designed to quarterly estimated structural macro econometric model for the Republic of Moldova, denoted A Classical Macroeconometric Data Model for the Republic of Moldova (MDM) in context of Neo-Classical Approach of the Economy. We have interpreted the term error from the perspective of 7 macroeconomic indicators, namely Gross Domestic Product (error, pension), Inflation Rate (error, wage and salary, ) Interest Rate (error, unemployment) Unemployment Rate (error inflation rate), Budget Fiscal Deficit (error, ra-gap vat gap estimation), Public Debt (ra-gap vat gap estimation) and Exchange Rate (error, gross domestic product). |
| Keywords: | error term, time-series, dynamic models, simultaneous-equations models, interpretation, econometrics. |
| JEL: | B23 C15 C22 C30 C32 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125855 |
| By: | Otto, Christian; Schult, Christoph; Vogt, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Vietnam, a lower-middle-income economy, faces severe climate risks from heat waves, sea-level rise, and tropical cyclones, which are expected to intensify under ongoing global warming. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, we analyze economic transition dynamics from 2015 to 2100, incorporating heat-induced labor productivity losses, agricultural land loss, and cyclone-related property damage. We compare a Paris-compatible scenario limiting warming to below 2 êC with a high-emission scenario reaching 4-5 êC. While output and investment impacts remain highly uncertain and statistically indistinguishable across scenarios until 2100, consumption losses are significantly larger under high emissions, mainly driven by heat-related productivity declines, with cyclones contributing most to uncertainty. These findings underscore the importance of considering multiple impact channels beyond output damages in climate-development research. |
| Keywords: | climate change impacts, dynamic general equilibrium model, impact channels, mitigation |
| JEL: | O44 Q13 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:325836 |