nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2026–03–23
eight papers chosen by
Maksym Obrizan, Kyiv School of Economics


  1. A reexamination of the firm innovation process: sensitivity to sample and estimation methods By Océane Vernerey
  2. New evidence on consumer price rigidity in Poland By Paweł Macias; Damian Stelmasiak; Karol Szafranek; Krzysztof Makarski
  3. Regulation in the Network Sectors: Impact on the Innovation Process and the Employment Rate By Océane Vernerey; Jimmy Lopez
  4. Food price responses to VAT changes: Price rigidity perspective from official and online data By Damian Stelmasiak; Karol Szafranek; Paweł Macias; Krzysztof Makarski
  5. Blue Transitions in the Black Sea: Multi-Actor Forums to Advance a Sustainable Blue Economy By Lydia Papadaki; Ebun Akinsete; Phoebe Koundouri
  6. The Clock on Compassion: How Settlement Misperceptions Shape Support for Refugee Policy By Giani, Marco; Krakowski, Krzysztof; Târlea, Silvana
  7. Non-linear effects of monetary policy shocks on housing: evidence from a CESEE country By Carlos Cañizares Martínez; Adriana Lojschová; Alicia Aguilar
  8. Overnight Interbank Rate Volatility Across Liquidity States: Key Drivers and Policy Implications By Elmir Mukhtarov; Ali Hajili; Aygun Garayeva; Vugar Ahmadov

  1. By: Océane Vernerey (LISA - Laboratoire « Lieux, Identités, eSpaces, Activités » (UMR CNRS 6240 LISA) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Università di Corsica Pasquale Paoli [Université de Corse Pascal Paoli], LEDi - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dijon [Dijon] - UBE - Université Bourgogne Europe)
    Abstract: In this article, we re-examine the innovation process through the CDM model. Compared to the existing literature, this study offers several contributions. First, it relies on an unusually large dataset of 509, 033 firms from nine European countries – Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Spain, Hungary, Lithuania, Portugal, Romania, and Slovakia – over the period 1998–2016. This extensive dataset allows us to explore cross-country heterogeneity, as well as potential temporal trends across multiple survey waves. Second, the paper provides a systematic and detailed review of the vast CDM literature, offering a structured synthesis of prior findings and highlighting the main areas where results diverge across studies. Third, methodologically, we compare three alternative estimation strategies, which enables us to evaluate the robustness of our findings and to identify potential sources of heterogeneity in estimated relationships. Across all specifications, we find that R&D investment has a positive effect on the share of new products in sales, which subsequently enhances firm performance. Promoting innovation can have a substantial impact on performance. However, the magnitudes of these effects vary depending on the country, the estimation method, and the treatment of potential biases. In some countries, innovation generates stronger positive spillover effects on firm performance, while others are more effective at transforming R&D into innovation but face challenges in converting this innovation into productivity gains. This implies, on the one hand, that public policies must be context-specific, and on the other hand, that the choice of estimation method and the treatment of potential biases can significantly affect the robustness and validity of the results.
    Keywords: Innovation process, CDM model, Methodological comparison
    Date: 2026
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05536446
  2. By: Paweł Macias (Narodowy Bank Polski); Damian Stelmasiak (Narodowy Bank Polski); Karol Szafranek (Narodowy Bank Polski); Krzysztof Makarski (Narodowy Bank Polski)
    Abstract: Nominal rigidities play a central role in monetary policy transmission, shaping how inflation and real activity respond to various shocks. Using a large longitudinal dataset of granular price data for Poland covering 2000–2024, we contribute to the literature on price stickiness across several dimensions. First, we document the price-setting behaviour in Poland. Second, we show how the process was affected by the turbulent post-COVID-19 period and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, evaluating the importance of the intensive and extensive margins of price adjustments. Third, we distinguish between sticky and flexible sectors, revealing heterogeneity in prices response to economic variables and shocks. We also compare the price-setting process in Poland with those in the euro area and the US. Finally, we complement these analyses with simulations performed on a two-sector DSGE model. Overall, we provide new, comprehensive evidence on price rigidity and discuss its implications for monetary policy transmission.
    Keywords: price rigidity; stickiness; consumer prices; micro data; inflation
    JEL: D40 E31
    Date: 2026
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:383
  3. By: Océane Vernerey (LEDi - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dijon [Dijon] - UBE - Université Bourgogne Europe); Jimmy Lopez (UBE - Université Bourgogne Europe)
    Abstract: We investigate both the innovation and labor market effects of network sector regulation in a consistent framework. The estimated impact of regulation on the innovation process is based on the Community Innovation Survey and a system of equations modelling the firm's choice of R&D expenditure, propensity to innovate, and performance. We then examine the regulation and innovation impact on the labor market using the European Union Labor Force Survey. From a sample of 330, 604 firms and 8, 594, 055 individuals over the period 1998-2016 and five countries that have undergone important reforms (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Portugal, Slovakia and Spain), we find a strong negative effect of network regulation on firms' performance and individuals' employment probability. According to our estimates, the overall impact of the reforms implemented would be an average increase in the employment probability of 12.8%, almost entirely explained by an increase in firms' performance.
    Keywords: Employment, Innovation, Regulation
    Date: 2026–01–29
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05536453
  4. By: Damian Stelmasiak (Narodowy Bank Polski); Karol Szafranek (Narodowy Bank Polski); Paweł Macias (Narodowy Bank Polski); Krzysztof Makarski (Narodowy Bank Polski)
    Abstract: This paper explores potential asymmetry and heterogeneity in price responses to two identical VAT shocks of opposite sign. To this end, we study how Polish food retailers reacted to a temporary VAT cut from 5% to 0% in February 2022 and its reversal in April 2024. Combining monthly CPI micro data together with high-frequency (daily) web-scraped prices allows us to identify price adjustments with greater precision and to distinguish immediate reactions from medium-term dynamics. We find that the VAT cut was passed through almost fully and immediately across all retailers via a sharp increase in the frequency of price decreases. By contrast, the VAT increase generated only partial and heterogeneous pass through: among small retailers it was immediate and complete, whereas large retailers raised their prices only modestly on impact and continued to do so with a delay. To rationalize this key asymmetry in prices response, we outline a simple framework in which price hikes trigger psychological menu costs—stemming from consumer loss aversion and customer anger— while price cuts do not, leading to weaker and delayed pass-through of VAT increases.
    Keywords: price rigidity; VAT rate change; pass-through; individual prices; web-scraped prices
    JEL: D40 E31
    Date: 2026
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:384
  5. By: Lydia Papadaki; Ebun Akinsete (ICRE8); Phoebe Koundouri
    Abstract: The Blue Economy, encompassing coastal, oceanic, and sea-related economic activities, is crucial for sustainable global development. The Black Sea, located between Asia and Europe, has significant potential for expansion.. DOORS Black Sea, an EU-funded initiative, aims to revitalize the Black Sea by fostering "blue economy" opportunities through collaboration among industry, academia, and local communities, addressing climate change and human activities' effects on the marine ecosystem. Multi-Actor Forums (MAFs) facilitate the col-laboration of diverse national stakeholders from Georgia, Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey in order to assist scientists in the prioritisation of Black Sea issues, with an emphasis on innovations to address gaps and blue economy policies. This method also contributes to the co-design of the region's System of Systems, which provides the necessary datasets for researchers to address environmental challenges and advance the blue economy. The results from the first round of MAFs show the sectors which should be prioritized in the Black Sea and the most significant challenges per country that need to be put at the forefront of the public dialogue.
    Keywords: Living Labs, Co-creation, Blue Economy, Black Sea, Systems Approaches
    Date: 2026–03–16
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2609
  6. By: Giani, Marco; Krakowski, Krzysztof; Târlea, Silvana
    Abstract: Humanitarian responses to refugees are typically framed as temporary, yet protracted conflicts blur the line between short-term protection and permanent settlement. We argue that public support for inclusive refugee policies depends on whether refugees are perceived as temporary guests or long-term residents. Using a survey experiment in Poland during the Ukrainian refugee crisis, we study whether citizens misperceive refugees’ intentions to settle permanently and whether correcting such “settlement misperceptions” affects support for inclusive refugee policy. Poles substantially overestimate the share of Ukrainians intending to remain indefinitely. These beliefs are strongly associated with lower support for inclusive refugee policy. Providing factual information about refugees’ actual settlement plans leads to meaningful belief updating and shifts in policy preferences. Corrections increase support among overestimators and decrease it among underestimators, with a net positive effect overall. Effects are strongest for welfare-related policies and extend to generalized affect, though not to social distance. Humanitarian attitudes thus hinge partly on temporal expectations.
    Date: 2026–03–13
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:56pyj_v1
  7. By: Carlos Cañizares Martínez; Adriana Lojschová; Alicia Aguilar
    Abstract: This paper estimates the effects of standard monetary policy shocks on housing and other macro variables in Slovakia, a CESEE country. For that purpose, we use a non linear local projection model which uncovers asymmetries in these effects around three different dimensions: high versus low economic growth, interest rates and infla tion. The main findings in this study are as follows. First, we often find no evidence of standard monetary policy eliciting a contractionary response in house prices or housing investment. Second, evidence is weakest during recessions and periods of low interest rates or low inflation. Third, these findings may be linked to the inability of monetary policy to trigger significant contractionary effects on household lending, which in turn may be linked to the effective lower bound on interest rates, the pre dominance of fixed-rate mortgages in Slovakia, or interaction between monetary and macroprudential policy. We also provide a discussion on the possible country charac teristics that might drive these results and policy implications.
    Keywords: Monetary policy, nonlinearities, local projections, euro area.
    JEL: C32 C36 E42 E52 E58 R21 R31
    Date: 2026–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcl:bclwop:bclwp202
  8. By: Elmir Mukhtarov (Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan); Ali Hajili (Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan); Aygun Garayeva (Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan); Vugar Ahmadov (Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan)
    Abstract: Effective monetary policy requires maintaining the short-term interbank rate close to the policy rate while limiting its volatility, ensuring smooth transmission, and reducing banks' liquidity and interest rate risks. This paper seeks to identify and explain the drivers of volatility in short-term interbank rates, while examining the impact of the reserve averaging framework on banking sector liquidity. Drawing on evidence from an emerging market, this study demonstrates that deviations of cumulative reserves from their trend exert a significant influence on interbank rate volatility. Specifically, the results identify distinct states in the money market: a high-responsiveness state and a low-responsiveness state, depending on prevailing liquidity conditions. The findings imply that central banks should closely monitor cumulative reserve positions and proactively guide liquidity toward its trend path.
    Keywords: overnight interbank rate; required reserve; markov-switching model; liquidity state
    JEL: C22 E53 E58 G21
    Date: 2026–03–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp07-2026

This nep-tra issue is ©2026 by Maksym Obrizan. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at https://nep.repec.org. For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <director@nep.repec.org>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the Griffith Business School of Griffith University in Australia.