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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Klepacka, Anna M.; Florkowski, Wojciech J.; Revoredo-Giha, Cesar; Neupane, Sulakshan |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Farm Management, Livestock Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343848 |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the design, implementation, and outcomes of the State Program for the Socio-Economic Development of the Regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the country's most comprehensive long-term development initiative spanning 2004-2023. Drawing on official statistical data and fiscal records, the paper evaluates four consecutive program cycles and complementary urban development schemes to determine their effectiveness in promoting balanced regional growth, reducing spatial disparities, and fostering economic diversification. Findings reveal that despite cumulative investments of approximately 92.2 billion Azerbaijani manats, regional inequality has not diminished. Economic activity remains overwhelmingly concentrated in the Baku-Absheron area, which generates over 80 percent of GDP while covering just 2.5 percent of the country's territory. The analysis demonstrates that regional policy outcomes have closely followed the cyclical pattern of hydrocarbon revenues, with the bulk of financing disbursed during oil-boom periods. The study also identifies the persistent procyclical character of public expenditure, weak institutional decentralization, and limited private sector engagement as key constraints undermining the program's developmental impact. The paper concludes that Azerbaijan's regional development strategy has achieved partial infrastructural improvements but failed to alter the highly centralized spatial structure of its economy. Future policies should prioritize institutional reforms, fiscal diversification, and enhanced regional autonomy to ensure inclusive, sustainable, and post-oil development |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Regional Development, Spatial Inequality, Resource Dependence, Oil Revenues, Fiscal Decentralization, Economic Diversification, Development Policy, Development Policy, State Programs |
| JEL: | R58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:333327 |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of Azerbaijan's economic trajectory over three decades of post-Soviet transformation, emphasizing the interplay between hydrocarbon dependence, fiscal fragility, and institutional weakness. Drawing upon national statistics, official budget data, and projections by international financial institutions-including the World Bank, IMF, EBRD, and ADB-the study traces macroeconomic dynamics from 1996 to 2025 and examines long-term sustainability prospects through 2050. The findings reveal that while hydrocarbon revenues have enabled rapid early growth and large-scale public investments, they have simultaneously entrenched structural vulnerabilities. Declining oil production, exchange-rate rigidity, weak diversification, and opaque fiscal governance have left the economy increasingly exposed to external shocks and domestic inefficiencies. Institutionally, Azerbaijan's governance environment has deteriorated, characterized by shrinking civic space, weakened judicial independence, and rising authoritarian control over economic and financial institutions. These systemic deficiencies have undermined investor confidence, constrained innovation, and reinforced monopolistic market structures. The study integrates macroeconomic, institutional, and geopolitical dimensions into a unified analytical framework, demonstrating that Azerbaijan's short-term fiscal surpluses mask deeper mid-term vulnerabilities and long-term structural risks. World Bank long-term growth simulations project average annual GDP growth of only 0.5 percent between 2024 and 2050-insufficient to achieve high-income status within the century under current policy conditions. The paper concludes by identifying key reform priorities, including institutional modernization, fiscal transparency, exchange rate flexibility, and the promotion of innovation-driven non-oil growth, as essential for achieving sustainable and inclusive economic transformation in a post-oil future. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Resource Dependence, Diversification, Institutional Reform, Hydrocarbon Revenues, Economic Governance, Macroeconomic Sustainability, Post-soviet Transition |
| JEL: | O11 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:333326 |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an empirical assessment of Azerbaijan's Strategic Roadmap for the National Economy, adopted in 2016 with targets set through 2025. Drawing on official statistics and the author's own calculations, the study evaluates performance against four core objectives: (i) raising average annual real GDP growth above 3 percent; (ii) increasing the share of foreign direct investment (FDI) in non-oil GDP to 4 percent; (iii) boosting non-oil exports per capita from USD 170 to USD 450; and (iv) reducing the state budget's dependence on transfers from the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) to 15 percent. The analysis shows that none of these targets have been met. Average annual GDP growth over 2016-2025 is estimated at 1.46 percent, well below the planned threshold. The share of FDI in non-oil GDP declined from 6.9 percent in 2016 to 0.7 percent in 2024, while per capita non-oil exports reached only about USD 330-more than 20 percent short of the 2025 target. At the same time, SOFAZ transfers still account for more than one-third of state budget revenues and are projected to remain structurally high. Labour-market indicators reveal additional fragility, with inflated job-creation figures, substantial job closures, and persistent reliance on public sector employment. The findings point to a systematic implementation gap between strategic planning and actual outcomes, rooted in structural and institutional constraints rather than exogenous shocks alone. The paper concludes that without significant reforms in governance, investment climate, and statistical transparency, Azerbaijan's strategic planning exercises will continue to underperform as instruments of genuine diversification and structural transformation. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Strategic Roadmap, Economic Diversification, Foreign Direct Investment, Non-Oil Exports, SOFAZ, Fiscal Dependence, Labour Market, Implementation Gap, Policy Evaluation |
| JEL: | O21 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:333328 |
| By: | Chen, Qianmiao |
| Abstract: | Public procurement is highly susceptible to corruption, especially in developing countries. Although open auctions are widely adopted to curb it, this paper finds that corruption remains prevalent even within this procurement format. Procurement officers can collaborate with firms to manipulate scoring rules, ensuring predetermined winners, while corrupt firms submit noncompetitive bids to meet minimum bidder requirements. Using extensive data from Chinese public procurement auctions, the paper introduces model-driven statistical tools to detect such corruption, identifying a corruption rate of 65 percent. A procurement expert audit survey confirms the tools’ reliability, with a 91 percent probability that experts recognize suspicious scoring rules when flagged. Firm-level analysis reveals that local, state-owned, and less productive firms are favored in corrupt auctions. Lastly, the paper explores policy implications. Analysis of the national anti-corruption campaign since 2012 suggests that general investigations may be insufficient to address deeply ingrained corrupt practices. Using counterfactuals based on an estimated structural model, the paper shows that implementing anonymous call-for-tender evaluations could improve social welfare by 10 percent by eliminating suspicious rules and encouraging broader participation. |
| Date: | 2025–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11267 |
| By: | Costa-Font, Joan (London School of Economics); Nicinska, Anna (University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | Education systems serve various purposes, including the enhancement of later-life health, though its effect can differ by socio-political regime. This paper examines the effects of exposure to communist education, which exposed children to a distinct curcurriculum and ideological content on later-life health. We exploit a novel dataset that collects information on compulsory education reforms in several European countries, with different cohorts exposed and unexposed to Soviet communist education. Using a difference-in-differences (DiD) design, we show that while the extension of compulsory education improved some relevant measures of health, communist education encompassed an additional health-enhancing effect. We document that the effect remains robust when using staggered DiD approaches and various robustness tests, and that it is explained by the priority given to physical education in school curricula, together with an increased likelihood of marriage. |
| Keywords: | physical activity, later-life health, health education gradient, communist education, Europe, Soviet Communism |
| JEL: | I18 I26 P36 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18304 |
| By: | Filipova, Fanya; Atanasov, Atanas; Marinova, Rumyana; Zapryanoava, Teodora |
| Abstract: | As sustainability becomes a core concern for financial institutions, the integration of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations into lending practices is reshaping credit assessment criteria, especially in resource-intensive industries. This paper explores how information derived from cash flow statements influences sustainable bank lending decisions within the wood-based sector in Bulgaria. By focusing on the intersection of financial transparency and corporate sustainability, the study highlights the importance of cash flow data in evaluating a company’s financial resilience, investment in sustainable practices, and long-term viability. Our study investigates how cash flow indicators such as operating cash flows, capital expenditures, and liquidity metrics interact with ESG disclosures to support or hinder access to green financing. The paper contributes to the growing dialogue on sustainable finance by emphasizing the role of traditional financial statements in complementing ESG information. Implications for regulators and financial institutions are also discussed, with recommendations for integrating cash flow-based and non-financial metrics into sector-specific credit risk frameworks. |
| Keywords: | creditworthiness, cash flow ratios, ESG reporting, sustainability, wood industry, natural wood furniture production |
| JEL: | G21 M41 Q56 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126628 |
| By: | Yhlas Sovbetov; Muhittin Kaplan |
| Abstract: | The empirical literature provides mixed results on the relationship between inflation and unemployment, therefore, there is no consensus on validity and stability of the Phillips Curve. It also seems to be closely related with country-specific factors and the examination time periods. Considering the importance of this trade-off for policy-makers, this study aims to examine validity and stability of expectations-augmented Phillips Curve across 41 countries focusing on three different time periods between 1980 and 2016. The study documents several findings both in country-specific and in panel estimation analysis. First, we find that forward-looking characteristic of inflation picks up weight after 1990's which indicates that inflation became more sensitive to the expected prices. Second, we observe that inflation in developed markets is more forward-looking comparing to emerging and frontier markets. This indicates that developed markets dear forward-looking price expectations more than other markets. Third, we find that that both forward- and backward-looking Phillips Curve fails to work in Brazil, Greece, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, Romania, and Turkey. We address it to their long history of high and volatile inflation. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.22786 |