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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Anienwe, Prince; Bhattarai, Keshab |
| Abstract: | A ten-equation Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model is designed to capture household optimization, firm production decisions, environmental dynamics, and banking sector vulnerabilities during Net Zero Emission transition periods. It is calibrated to Polish macroeconomic data from 2000 to 2019 to evaluate various policy scenarios, including gradual versus rapid carbon tax implementation and different emission reduction targets. Results highlight critical trade-offs among environmental goals, economic stability, and financial system resilience. The analysis shows that Poland can reach its net-zero emissions target while maintaining macroeconomic stability through coordinated policy measures, with productivity gains generating positive spillovers across the economy. This study addresses significant gaps in environmental macroeconomic modelling for Central and Eastern European contexts, providing new insights for Poland's EU-mandated decarbonization policy while preserving economic and financial stability. |
| Keywords: | DSGE Modelling; Net-Zero Transition; Carbon Taxation; Environmental Policy; Macroeconomic Stability; Financial Stability |
| JEL: | C54 E6 O5 Q5 |
| Date: | 2026–01–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127741 |
| By: | Leonard Gregor; Justus Haucap |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the effect of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 on refinery margins, i.e. the difference between wholesale prices for road fuels (gasoline and diesel) and oil prices in Europe and Germany in particular. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wholesale road fuel prices net of taxes rose by more than 50 cents per liter, whereas crude oil prices increased by only about 30 cents per liter. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we compare refinery margins in Germany with those on the Amsterdam–Rotterdam–Antwerp (ARA) spot market, which serves as a European benchmark price. The results indicate that refinery margins in Germany increased by approximately 5–6 cents per liter relative to the ARA region after the invasion. We attribute this differential primarily to Germany’s strong dependence on Russian Ural crude oil imports and to the presence of regional market power among German refineries. We further document substantial heterogeneity in treatment effects across both time and regions. In addition, the invasion was associated with a significant decline in fuel demand, with gasoline consumption falling by about 13% and diesel consumption by approximately 9%. |
| Keywords: | event study, Ukraine crisis, fuel prices, wholesale markets |
| JEL: | C33 G14 H56 L13 L71 Q41 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12553 |
| By: | Costa-Font, Joan; Nicińska, Anna; Rosello-Roig, Melcior |
| Abstract: | We compare inequality and social mobility trends in European countries exposed to Soviet Communist (SC) regimes with those not exposed, using similar welfare measures. We draw upon a rich retrospective dataset that collects relevant welfare measures across regimes including information on living space and self-reported health, and relevant inequality and mobility indices for ordinal and categorical data. Our results suggest evidence of comparable welfare inequality trends in countries exposed to SC and those unexposed. Although individuals exposed to SC enjoyed higher levels of social mobility, differences in inequality across countries exposed to different regimes were negligible. A plausible explanation lies in the countervailing role of the welfare state in countries not exposed to SC and the inefficiency of the bureaucratic allocation of private goods aimed at reducing inequality in countries exposed to SC. |
| Keywords: | bureaucracy; education; European Communist Regimes;; health inequality; living space; self-reported health; social mobility; Soviet Communism; welfare |
| JEL: | H53 I38 N34 P20 P29 P36 P46 |
| Date: | 2026–03–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128960 |
| By: | Muter, Magda |
| Abstract: | This paper explores fatherhood in Poland among dual-earner couples, having already at least one young child. The birth of a child usually results in more traditional division of labour among partners, including strongly gendered division of newly created childcare labour. However, there is visible intergenerational change, with new fathers expressing a desire to be more involved with their children (in comparison to their own fathers). Mothers support them, and they prioritise fathers building relationship with children over them doing more housework. The paper focuses on the results of 74 semi-structured individual interviews with 37 couples, conducted in 2019 in Poland. I explore how the concept of involved fatherhood is understood, and practiced, where there are a lot of contradictions. For example, despite generous, and seemingly gender-neutral social policies, like long parental leave available for both mothers and fathers, there is a strongly gendered uptake, with women using the vast majority of all leaves. For many of the fathers in my sample, fatherhood was a lifechanging experience. However, it is important to mention that even when a father is an active caregiver, it does not always transfer to more gender-equal division of labour. Through the experiences of my respondents, I argue that despite increasing cultural support for involved fatherhood, there are still challenges with practicing it. |
| Keywords: | involved fatherhood; Poland; equality; gender; division of labour |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–03–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137586 |
| By: | Piotr Dybka; Magdalena Karska; Maciej Łopusiński; Andrzej Torój |
| Abstract: | We estimate the personal income tax (PIT) gap in Bulgaria using the Pissarides and Weber (1989) methodology (“traces of true income” approach), which compares the relationship between food expenditure and income of self-employed and other employees. Our analysis relies on a unique anonymized dataset prepared by the National Statistical Institute from Household Budget Survey and National Revenue Administration records, providing a more reliable measure of income than survey data alone. Extending the standard PW framework, we estimate under-reporting not only among the self-employed but also among private-sector employees. Our results show that unreported labour income averaged 6.37% of GDP during 2017–2021 (excluding 2020), with private-sector employees contributing 5.36% and the self-employed 1.01%. The PIT gap amounted to 13.8% of theoretical revenues, while the social security contribution gap reached 16.5%, corresponding to lost revenues of 0.54% and 1.71% of GDP, respectively. Moreover, our analysis also shows that households with children and younger earners are more prone to under-reporting. These findings underscore the importance of accounting for household characteristics when designing policies to mitigate tax non-compliance. |
| Keywords: | Shadow economy, PIT gap, PIT, Tax gap |
| JEL: | C51 E26 H21 H26 O17 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2026119 |
| By: | Piotr Dybka; Stanisław Bartha; Anna Komisarska; Michał Kowalczuk |
| Abstract: | The goal of this paper is to estimate the level and provide a sectoral decomposition of the VAT gap in Bulgaria based on the unique dataset provided by the National Revenue Agency in Bulgaria (NRA). We focus on the output VAT gap. Our potential VAT estimate takes into account the value of output VAT based on the estimate of sales. Our study also seeks potential macroeconomic factors that affect the VAT gap and obtained results indicate that a higher VAT gap can be associated with a larger share of micro enterprises, changes in the business cycle (i.e. increase in firm death rate and unemployment). Moreover, firms with higher shares of revenues from sales to government observe markedly lower output VAT gap. In Bulgaria, the largest share of the VAT gap in overall value of VAT is observed in the trade sector, followed by the information and communication sector and professional, scientific, and technical activities. |
| Keywords: | Shadow economy, VAT gap, VAT, Tax gap |
| JEL: | C51 E26 H21 H26 O17 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2026118 |
| By: | Reiner Martin (National Bank of Slovakia); Piroska Nagy Mohacsi (London School of Economics and Political Science); Tatiana Evdokimova (Joint Vienna Institute); Jan Klacso (National Bank of Slovakia); Olga Ponomarenko (Caplight) |
| Abstract: | Central bank communication on financial stability has been less studied than on monetary policy. Our paper aims to contribute to the growing literature in this area. Our focus is the region of Central Europe, where financial sectors are intertwined through close cross-border ownership, and about half of the countries are members of the euro area. Using large language models (LLMs) combined with country-specific contextual analysis, we study executive summaries of Financial Stability Reports (FSRs) published since the early 2000s by seven Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European (CESEE) central banks, as well as by Austria and the European Central Bank (ECB). We construct a novel financial stability sentiment index and document that central bank communication is strongly risk-focused, most notably in the case of the ECB. In addition, prior to the Global Financial Crisis, the Austrian central bank was much less concerned than other central banks in the region although Austria plays a pivotal role in the financial system in the region. Our analysis of the link between financial stability sentiment communication and macroprudential policy action highlights that many central banks actively use and communicate about borrower-based measures, while most countries activated non-zero counter-cyclical capital buffers belatedly or not at all. Finally, comparing central banks’ communication on financial stability and monetary policy, we find that euro area national central banks and the ECB’s FSR communicated about the rising risks of post-Covid inflation in a timely manner, ahead of the ECB’s monetary policy communication. |
| JEL: | C55 E58 E61 H12 D83 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svk:wpaper:1139 |
| By: | Nita Handastya |
| Abstract: | Childhood socioeconomic disadvantage is a well established determinant of health in later life. Less is known about how early-life deprivation unfolds when individuals experience major institutional transformation and migration in adulthood. Cohorts socialized under Soviet institutions provide a useful setting to examine life-course divergence under systemic change. This study uses harmonized data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) on older adults residing in Estonia, Latvia, and Israel to examine the association between retrospectively reported childhood deprivation and multiple health outcomes in later life, including poor self-rated health, chronic disease burden, functional limitation, depression, and a composite multifrailty indicator. Logistic regression models and predicted probabilities assess whether childhood deprivation predicts late-life health across different adult institutional contexts and whether associations vary by linguistic affiliation. Higher levels of childhood deprivation are consistently associated with poorer health outcomes across all three countries. Individuals in the highest deprivation quintile show substantially higher odds of adverse health outcomes, including multifrailty. Stratified analyses for Estonia and Latvia indicate broadly similar deprivation-health gradients among national-language and Russian-speaking populations. These findings highlight the persistence of childhood disadvantage and the importance of early-life conditions in shaping health inequalities in ageing populations exposed to systemic transformation. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.14118 |
| By: | Crude Accountability (Ed.) |
| Abstract: | The Board of Directors of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) reviews and submits Azerbaijan's Country Strategy for discussion every five years. The draft strategy was published on the EBRD website in both English and Azerbaijani, with the public invited to provide feedback from October 4 to November 17, 2024. Following this consultation period, the Board approved the final Azerbaijan Country Strategy 2025-2030 on January 29, 2025.1 Throughout this process, the EBRD emphasized transparency, acknowledging various comments from civil society organizations and experts. However, it noted that input submitted jointly with Crude Accountability partner organizations was not incorporated into the final version, resulting in minimal differences between the draft and the approved document. According to the EBRD's statement, an in-person public consultation meeting with civil society organizations (CSOs) in Azerbaijan was held on April 22, 2024. However, the list of participating local NGOs has not been disclosed. Given the absence of independent NGOs in Azerbaijan, the inclusion of pro-government organizations in such consultations appears to be largely symbolic, creating the illusion of public participation rather than facilitating meaningful dialogue. Therefore, the assessment presented in the final version lacks depth and comprehensive analysis. The absence of independent NGOs and free media-both essential for fostering open dialogue and diverse perspectives-has severely restricted the possibility of meaningful public discussion and critical engagement with the document. The state of civil society in Azerbaijan has significantly deteriorated since the EBRD's last country strategy was written, and engagement with local civil society organizations has declined in the EBRD's activities. There is limited evidence of concrete outcomes from the Bank's purported closer collaboration with Azerbaijani authorities in critical economic sectors during this period. |
| Keywords: | EBRD, Azerbaijan, Investment, Fossil Fuels, Renewable Energy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:338614 |
| By: | Tjantana Barro (University of Konstanz); Michal Marencak (National Bank of Slovakia); Giang Nghiem (Leibniz University Hannover) |
| Abstract: | We provide causal evidence that the economic framing of a structural policy changes households’ macroeconomic expectations. In a randomized survey experiment in the Bundesbank Online Panel of Households, all participants first read an identical neutral primer about climate policy measures and are then randomly assigned to receive no further text or an additional narrative interpreting the policy primarily as a negative demand or supply shock. Both narratives reduce expected growth. However, only the supply-shock framing raises inflation expectations, while the demand-shock framing does not reduce them—contrary to a simple demand-channel benchmark. These findings suggest that communication that makes different macro channels salient can materially shape expectations, with implications for economic policy communication during structural transitions. |
| JEL: | C33 D84 E31 E52 Q4 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svk:wpaper:1138 |
| By: | Murphy, Mike; Hoffmann, Vivian; Ambler, Kate; Ha Thi Thanh Nguyen; Sinh Dang-Xuan; Hung Nguyen-Viet; Unger, Fred; Bett, Bernard K. |
| Abstract: | Vietnam is a global hotspot for wildlife trade and farming, with thousands of licensed operations raising species such as civets, porcupines, bamboo rats, snakes, and wild boar for meat, traditional medicine, and the exotic pet trade (Van Thu et al., 2023). The sector poses significant public health risks due to the potential for transmission of novel zoonotic diseases (Latinne & Padungtod, 2025). Understanding the economics of this sector is critical to developing effective policy for managing and de-risking wildlife sup-ply chains but data is scarce, typically based on small sample sizes and limited study sites (Thuy et al., 2021). This note provides descriptive statistics regarding the economics of wildlife farming in two provinces of Vietnam, based on a survey of wildlife farming households. |
| Keywords: | economic aspects; wildlife; wild animals; trade in species; useful animals; zoonoses; supply chains; Vietnam; Asia; South-eastern Asia |
| Date: | 2025–12–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:178945 |
| By: | Łukasz Wiktor Olejnik; Marcin Grygo |
| Abstract: | To date, there have been dozens of publications confirming the existence of alignment bias or hometown bias in the allocation of intergovernmental grants. However, the assumption is typically made that members of one party support one another in principle. Meanwhile, in proportional systems, candidates from one party compete with one another for a seat in parliament, which may affect the distribution of grants. This paper analyses the distribution of investment grants to local governments from the Polish Covid-19 Response Fund in 2021-2023. It presents results suggesting that if the distribution of discretionary investment grants is controlled by the members of a single party faction, local governments with ties to the hometowns or birth towns of members of parliament (MPs) representing that faction receive significantly more funding than other local governments. The hometowns or birth towns of opposition members receive significantly lower grants, while the hometowns or birth towns of politicians from the opposite faction of the ruling party receive the lowest grants. This supports the hypothesis that intra-party rivalry and the desire to reduce the re-election chances of rivals can have a powerful impact on the distribution of discretionary grants. |
| Keywords: | alignment bias, hometown bias, core vs. swing voters hypothesis, intra-party competition |
| JEL: | D72 H72 H73 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2024104 |
| By: | Dushamova, Khilola; Javed, Rashid; Suyunov, Gayrat; Zakirova, Munira |
| Abstract: | In this study, we use data from the recent round of the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) to estimate the effect of son preference on reproductive behaviour in Uzbekistan. We find strong evidence of differential stopping and spacing behaviour among Uzbek women. Women are significantly less likely to have a subsequent birth if they have at least one son at a given birth order. The effect is particularly strong among rural women at higher birth orders. The likelihood of discontinuation of childbearing increases as the number of sons increases. However, the sex of the firstborn child, whether male or female, plays no role in women's decisions about having additional children. We find that the probability of a subsequent short or risky birth interval is lower among women with at least one son. In addition, women with at least one son are more likely to use contraceptives. These patterns persist regardless of women's age. The findings have important implications for policymakers and practitioners in helping to design targeted interventions and programs in the country to improve reproductive health outcomes, promote gender equality, increase access to family planning services, and support women's reproductive autonomy. |
| Keywords: | Son Preference, Birth Spacing, Fertility, Uzbekistan |
| JEL: | D13 J13 C13 Z10 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:338885 |
| By: | Nguyen, Thi Huong; Nguyen, Thi Mai Hanh |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the evolving structure of Vietnam’s economy after ĐổiMới by analyzing output, value-added, and import multipliers for the years 1989, 1996, 2000, 2007, 2012, 2019, and 2025. Unlike conventional approaches, multipliers are decomposed into intra-industry effects and spillover effects components, capturing direct, indirect, and inter-industry feedback loops effects and spillover effects for output, value added, and imports. The results reveal substantial shifts in industrial roles and highlight previously underappreciated channels through which economic activity propagates. By distinguishing these components, the analysis identifies sectors with disproportionate influence on production and trade, offering a refined perspective on structural transformation. These findings provide actionable insights for policymakers aiming to streng then sectoral linkages, enhance value-added generation, and strategically manage import dependence in a rapidly evolving economic landscape. |
| Keywords: | Input-Output analysis, internal effects, Intra-industry effects, Spillover effects, Structural transformation, Vietnam economy. |
| JEL: | C67 |
| Date: | 2026–03–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128387 |
| By: | Alexandra Bykova (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Francesca Guadagno (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Ioannis Gutzianas (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Europe’s innovation bottleneck increasingly manifests in the difficulty of scaling promising startups into globally competitive firms. Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) is particularly exposed to this due to limited finance and local acquirers, which lead to serious risks of relocation particularly beyond the EU’s borders. This policy note documents the sectoral structure and dynamics of CESEE small enterprises (10-49 employees) across six broadly defined macro-sectors Digital Economy, Life Sciences, Media, Creative Economy, Production, and Neighbourhood Economy. It uses Eurostat’s Structural Business Statistics and patent data from the OECD Patent Database. An analysis of the most influential rankings of innovative clusters and related outcome indicators complements the descriptive analysis. The note finds that Production and the Neighbourhood Economy represent the lion’s share of the region’s small enterprises, while Digital Economy is the clear growth champion. Creative Economy activities show solid, if uneven, expansion. And while the Media macro-sector stagnates, Life Sciences exhibits highly concentrated but distinctive niche specialisations, especially in smaller economies. Ecosystem rankings and unicorn outcomes reveal an intensely urban, highly heterogeneous innovation landscape. Some small CESEE states, such as Estonia, Lithuania, and Croatia, achieve exceptional unicorn densities, yet many of these firms relocate their headquarters to the US or the UK to access deeper capital markets. The paper posits that strategic intra-EU relocation and dual-hub models – particularly leveraging, for instance, Vienna’s role as a proximate, research-intensive hub – can help to keep CESEE firms and value creation within the European innovation system while Capital Markets Union reforms remain incomplete. |
| Keywords: | CESEE, Startups, Scaleups, Unicorns, Innovation, Sectoral specialisation, Patents, Urban hubs, Capital markets |
| JEL: | L26 O30 O52 R11 R58 G24 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:105 |
| By: | Melecky, Martin; Ruiz Ortega, Claudia; Bizhan, Asset; Jambal, Ganbaatar |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the employment and sales effects of two widely used financial support instruments for small and medium-sized enterprises, interest rate subsidies and credit guarantees, using administrative program data from Kazakhstan matched to the universe of firms. Utilizing staggered intervention rollouts and a difference-in-differences design, the analysis reveals significant differences across program designs and local labor market conditions. Interest rate subsidies, despite their large fiscal costs, fail to improve firm performance: beneficiary firms experience a 10 percent decline in employment and no significant increase in sales. Fully subsidized credit guarantees show no discernible effects on sales or employment. By contrast, a market-aligned, fee-based partial credit guarantee that ensures lender and borrower risk-sharing increases employment by 24 percent and sales by 21 percent, with particularly stronger effects among women-led and formally incorporated businesses. These employment gains are substantially larger in regions with higher pre-program unemployment, suggesting that well-designed credit guarantees are more likely to generate net job creation in labor markets with greater slack, rather than merely reallocating workers across firms. Overall, the findings underscore the pivotal role of incentive-compatible program design and local labor market condit ions in determining the effectiveness of financial policies for small and medium-sized enterprises. |
| Date: | 2026–03–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11344 |