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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Clifton-Sprigg, Joanna (University of Bath); Homburg, Ines (University of Antwerp); Vujic, Suncica (University of Antwerp) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of immigration on voting behaviour. Exploiting a unique natural experiment, we research parliamentary election results in Poland following the 2022 inflow of Ukrainian refugees. We exploit the variation in hosted refugees across Polish counties and utilise a shift-share instrument based on the past settlement of Ukrainian immigrants. We find increased support for far-right and right-wing (incumbent) political groups, at the expense of centre parties. There is important regional variation in this overall pattern. The more liberal areas in west Poland experienced political polarisation, with both far-right and left-wing parties gaining support. Furthermore, the rise in far-right support is particularly pronounced in rural counties, low wage counties, and those bordering Ukraine. The effects are driven by changing voter preferences, rather than election participation or natives’ internal mobility, and are not rooted in adverse economic effects. Our findings show that exposure to refugees, even those with a similar background and favourable profile, can still be associated with natives’ backlash. |
| Keywords: | election results, refugee exposure, forced migration, Russia-Ukraine war |
| JEL: | D72 D74 J15 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18157 |
| By: | Konstantin Egorov; Vasily Korovkin; Alexey Makarin; Dzhamilya Nigmatulina |
| Abstract: | How effective are trade sanctions? We examine the economic impact of the unprecedented sanc- tions imposed on Russia following February 2022, when Western countries banned exports ac- counting for 36% of Russia’s prewar import value. Combining novel, manually collected records of these sanctions with Russian customs data, firm balance sheets, domestic railway shipments, and government procurement contracts, we provide the most comprehensive analysis of the economic impact of trade sanctions on a target country to date. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that imports of sanctioned country-product varieties into Russia saw a sharp 62% decline following the war’s onset. While we see substantial rerouting through third countries, it did not fully offset the direct import losses: total imports of sanctioned products fell by 27%. Firms that had relied on soon-to-be-sanctioned imports experienced a 14% decline in output, also observed in manufacturing, technology, and firms linked to military supply chains. Affected firms also saw reduced government procurement sales and incurred additional losses when their buyers or suppliers were exposed to sanctions. Overall, our findings suggest that, contrary to widespread claims of ineffectiveness, import sanctions on Russia had far-reaching adverse effects. |
| Keywords: | sanctions, international trade, Russia-Ukraine war, geoeconomics |
| JEL: | D22 D74 F14 F51 H56 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1920 |
| By: | Grigoryan, Karen; Chapanyan, Taguhi |
| Abstract: | This article examines the impact of government spending, as well as current and capital expenditures, on economic growth. Current and capital expenditures have distinct roles in shaping a countries' economic trajectory. For one hand, current expenditures are essential for maintaining short-term economic stability and supporting immediate needs and, while on the other hand, capital expenditures, contributes to long-term economic growth by enhancing productivity, improving efficiency, and fostering innovation. The article identifies the necessary balance between these spending categories to maximize both short-term economic stability and longterm growth potential. Furthermore, the article also discussed how Armenia's government spending can align with global initiatives such as the European Union's Global Gateway strategy, which aims to foster smart, clean, and secure connections in key sectors like digital, energy, and transport. This study uses the Vector Autoregression (VAR) and least squares (LSM) models to analyze the relationships of government revenues, public debt, total government expenditures, as well as current and capital expenditures, with economic growth. The model results indicate that increase of government revenues leads to increase of economic growth, and government expenditures. At the same time increase of economic growth contributes to an increase of government expenditures, while increase of public debt suppresses economic growth. |
| Keywords: | government expenditure, economic growth, current expenditure, capital expenditure, global gateway, vector autoregressive model |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:328269 |
| By: | Bertoni, Fabio; Colombo, Massimo G.; Quas, Anita |
| Abstract: | This working paper evaluates the impact of the COSME Loan Guarantee Facility (LGF) on SMEs in Greece, Poland, Spain, and Romania between 2015 and 2023. Using advanced econometric methods, we compare SMEs that received a guarantee with a control group of similar companies. We find that SMEs benefiting from guaranteed loans outgrow their counterparts three years after the signature year, in terms of total assets, sales, and both tangible and intangible fixed assets. Moreover, beneficiary companies are less likely to go bankrupt by the end of 2023, particularly smaller and older firms. The results confirm that guaranteed loans support SME growth without adverse long-term effects on productivity or business survival. This paper is part of the ongoing work of the Impact Assessment division to support the EIF's transition to an impact-driven institution by designing and implementing a comprehensive Impact Assessment Framework. Ex-post impact studies, such as this report, play a key role in this Framework by informing and refining future support measures, while also enhancing the accuracy of predicted outcomes. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:eifwps:328255 |
| By: | Tur Cardona Juan (European Commission - JRC); Ciaian Pavel (European Commission - JRC); Antonioli Federico (European Commission - JRC); Fellmann Thomas (European Commission - JRC); Rocciola Francesco; Ierardi Irene; Crimeni Rocco; Anastasiou Evangelos |
| Abstract: | "The digitalisation of the EU agricultural sector is an essential part of the broader EU Digital Agenda and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) aiming to promote competitiveness, sustainability, and resilience in agriculture through digital transformation. This report analyses the current state of digitalisation in EU agriculture, covering the adoption of general IT and software tools and farm-specific technologies, key drivers and barriers, perceived sustainability aspects, and farm-level practices in data collection, management and sharing. The analysis is based on farm survey data from 1 444 respondents in nine EU Member States – Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Lithuania, Hungary and Poland – collected between June and October 2024. The results show that while general IT and software tools are widely used, more expensive technologies specific to crop or livestock production have been less widely adopted. Adoption rates are higher among larger farms, those with better internet connectivity and those with specialised training. Key drivers of adoption include efficiency gains, cost savings, regulatory pressures and improved quality of life, while high costs and limited skills remain notable barriers. Farmers expect digital technologies to have positive economic, environmental and social impacts. Farm-level data collection is still largely manual or based on basic digital tools, which increases the administrative burden on farmers. Farmers appear to take a selective approach to data sharing, mainly due to concerns about privacy, security and data control. Promoting transparent data policies, ensuring farmers benefit from sharing and adopting a targeted policy approach for advanced technologies can help build trust and support wider digital adoption." |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc141259 |
| By: | Markosyan, Meruzhan; Matevosyan, Elyanora; Markosyan, Ashot |
| Abstract: | Foreign trade plays a central role in Armenia's economic development, shaping GDP through both internal and external factors. In small and open economies such as Armenia, external trade and integration strategies are decisive for growth. The state budget data for 2022-2024 underline this dependence: VAT revenues from imports formed 65.2% in 2022, 67.4% in 2023, and 57.5% in 2024, while excise taxes from imports accounted for 61.0%, 76%, and 60% respectively. These figures demonstrate that Armenia's fiscal stability is largely driven by foreign trade flows. Between 2019 and 2024, Armenia's trade structure shifted notably, with the share of "other countries" (primarily Global South states) rising from 39% to 53.8%. This trend reflects diversification, new markets, and more efficient partnerships. For Global South countries, international trade integration provides access to growth, technology transfer, and investment inflows, making foreign trade a cornerstone of their development path. For Armenia, improving the export structure, fostering high value-added production, and reducing reliance on raw materials are critical. Strengthening competitiveness, enhancing the investment climate, and adopting international best practices are equally important. This study therefore analyzes Armenia's foreign trade dynamics during 2021-2024 and outlines strategic directions for inclusive growth, regional integration, and cooperation within the Global South. |
| Keywords: | Global South, foreign trade strategy, economic diversification, competitiveness, economic integration, international trade, developing countries, export promotion, economic stability |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:328270 |
| By: | Ferlenga, Francesco (Department of Economics, University of Warwick); Kang, Stephanie (Market Development, ISO New England) |
| Abstract: | We study how expanding immigrants' rights affects their political and social integration by leveraging Romania's 2007 EU accession, which granted Romanian immigrants in Italy municipal voting and residency rights. Using municipality-level event studies, we find: (1) Enfranchisement increased the election of Romanian-born councilors - especially in competitive races - despite limited changes in candidacy rates. It also increased Romanian turnout, suggesting that electoral gains stem from an expanded voter base. An instrumented difference-in-differences analysis shows this is driven by pre-existing Romanian residents, not new arrivals. (2) Consent to organ donation rose among Romanians post-2007, indicating that the expansion of rights extends to prosocial behavior. (3) Nonetheless, immigrant presence continues to raise support for right-leaning parties and security spending while reducing social spending, highlighting persistent native backlash that outweighs immigrant political influence. |
| Keywords: | JEL Classification: |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:775 |
| By: | Gregorio Impavido |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the relative contribution of domestic and external factors to headline inflation in Kazakhstan. We confirm earlier results that inflation is primarily imported, and we provide novel details on the sources of imported inflation and its transmission channels. We find that domestic factors like fiscal policy and more recently utility tariff increases are the key determinants of domestic inflationary pressures. We provide new information on the likely determinants of inflation expectations through which domestic and external factors affect inflation. We find that monetary policy has only been partially successful at containing domestic and external pressures with insufficient liquidity sterilization, likely contributing to weakening of the interest rate transmission channel. Finally, we find that shocks are highly persistent and bringing back inflation to its target is likely to be a difficult and long process for the Central Bank. |
| Keywords: | Inflation determinants; domestic factors; external factors; monetary policy; fiscal policy; inflation expectationsl SUR |
| Date: | 2025–10–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/209 |
| By: | Andrea S. Gubik; Zoltan Bartha |
| Abstract: | Modern universities may play a significant role in entrepreneurial ecosystems by boosting the entrepreneurial activity of the region. One way to achieve this is through entrepreneurship education. In this study we suggest that one reason why entrepreneurship education has a weak impact on entrepreneurial activity is that the effect of courses and extracurricular programmes depends on how students perceive the entrepreneurial activity. We use the 2018 GUESSS database, which includes 9, 667 answers for Hungary, to develop a general linear model. The model suggests that students' entrepreneurial intentions, attitudes toward entrepreneurship, self-efficacy, social norms, as well as the university, and the field of study all have a small but statistically significant impact on how students perceive the entrepreneurial ecosystem within the university. Our conclusion is that more emphasis on shaping attitudes and arousing student interest can increase the efficiency of entrepreneurship education. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.21414 |
| By: | Tomic, Slobodan; Pavlovic, Dusan |
| Abstract: | This article examines how competitive authoritarian regimes reshape state administration through informal, extralegal structures that bypass formal institutional frameworks. While prior research highlights how regimes centralize power by restructuring bureaucracies and appointing loyalists, the formal institutional framework typically remains the main conduit through which partisan control and management of state administration are exercised. This article presents a distinct model of partisan control under competitive authoritarianism — showing how these strategies may be reinforced, or even replaced, by party-run parallel networks that redirect authority flows. Drawing on the case of Serbia under Vučić, it documents a “para-state” shadow governance system that displaces formal command. This model enables centralized, discretionary control across the entire public sector while shielding elites from accountability. Conceptually, the article argues that Serbia’s model blurs the line between competitive authoritarianism and totalitarian rule. |
| Date: | 2025–10–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ympvd_v2 |
| By: | Atoyan, Vardan; Khachikyan, Sos; Petrosyan, Nushik |
| Abstract: | In an era of global systemic transformations, small states encounter heightened challenges in safeguarding their sovereignty and maintaining strategic relevance. This article examines Armenia's foreign policy as a representative case of small state behavior in a contested geopolitical environment. Positioned at the intersection of competing regional and global powers, Armenia exemplifies the struggle to balance regional cooperation with broader international integration. Through the lens of strategic flexibility, societal resilience, and institutional adaptation, this study highlights the mechanisms by which small states respond to hybrid threats, navigate asymmetrical dependencies, and pursue multilateral diplomacy. The findings underscore the critical importance of coherent foreign policy, internal cohesion, and diversified international partnerships in reinforcing the security and agency of small states. |
| Keywords: | small states, foreign policy, regional geopolitics, Armenia, international relations |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:328268 |
| By: | MENG, WEI |
| Abstract: | This study aims to deepen open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysis of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence International Corps through artificial intelligence methods, exploring AI's application potential and methodological value in complex warfare information environments. The core objectives address two questions: First, how can AI technologies be effectively integrated into the OSINT cycle to enhance information screening, pattern recognition, and risk prediction? Second, can AI-driven OSINT provide more forward-looking and systematic support for strategic decision-making? Methodologically, this study adopts a multidisciplinary mixed methodology, integrating text metrology, semantic network analysis, risk radar modeling, and time-series projection to form a comprehensive framework: “Data Collection → AI Processing → Risk Assessment → Timeline Analysis → Insight Output.” The research process extensively leverages multilingual datasets (English, Ukrainian, Russian) and cross-platform information sources (official, media, social networks), utilizing visualization modeling to present data and risks in multidimensional formats. Results demonstrate that AI significantly enhances the depth and breadth of information processing in OSINT analysis. It outperforms traditional methods in misinformation detection accuracy, multilingual keyword extraction efficiency, and predictive power for risk patterns. Military risks and information warfare risks were assessed as highest priority, followed by public opinion risks and legal risks, revealing an overall “military-information warfare-public opinion” triple-high-risk configuration. Concurrently, time-series analysis revealed rhythmic patterns in risk evolution, providing quantitative foundations for future strategic planning. The study concludes that AI not only transforms OSINT's technical framework but also propels it toward structured, systematic, and forward-looking intelligence generation. AI-driven OSINT effectively bridges the tension between data fragmentation and systematic strategic analysis, enabling a qualitative leap in the intelligence cycle from “information accumulation” to “strategic insight.” This study provides an empirical paradigm for interdisciplinary research at the intersection of artificial intelligence and intelligence studies, holding significant theoretical and practical implications for future military conflicts, national security, and policy formulation. |
| Date: | 2025–10–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:y8nwk_v1 |
| By: | Moritz Lubczyk; Maria Waldinger |
| Abstract: | What are the long-run effects of sustained exposure to air pollution? A unique natural experiment allows us to examine this question. In 1982, a sudden cut in Soviet oil forced Socialist East Germany to switch to highly polluting lignite coal. While the shock sharply increased air pollution near mining regions, authoritarian restrictions on mobility, housing, and jobs prevented sorting responses. We document persistent labor market impacts over three decades. Exposed individuals work less, earn lower wages, and retire earlier. Health is a key mechanism: infant mortality rises by 9\% and the long-run incidence of asthma and cardiopathy increases significantly. |
| Keywords: | air pollution, labour supply |
| JEL: | I15 J24 J60 N54 Q53 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12197 |
| By: | Sundberg, Trude; del Río, Santiago Leyva; Robertson, Laura |
| Abstract: | This report is the first part of our effort to create an understanding of what ‘experiences’ of receiving benefits are, and which aspects of experiences matter for different people in and across countries. It discusses findings from discussions groups with people receiving disability and/or unemployment or minimum income benefits in Estonia, Hungary, Norway, Spain and the United Kingdom. Workshops were designed and led by co-production research partner organisations in each of the nations, supported by the national academic teams as and when needed.This report provides an overview of findings from the discussion groups, and will, together with an academic literature review, form the basis for the conceptual framework used in the quantitative and qualitative research on the project. |
| Date: | 2025–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:aq23v_v1 |
| By: | Zoltan Bartha; Adam Bereczk |
| Abstract: | Our study presents a model of factors influencing the financial viability of Hungarian social enterprises, and tests the model on a sample of 220 Hungarian firms involved in social entrepreneurship. In the model we suggest that the most important factors for financial viability are the Regulatory environment (the transparency of regulations); the Entrepreneurial attributes of the entrepreneur (business orientation, business skills and experience, business planning tendencies); the Financial support provided by the environment (the ratio of grants, donations and subsidies within the total revenues of the firm); and the Strategy followed by the firms (the presence of such generic strategies as cost leadership or differentiation). We find that only two of the model's four factors are significantly associated with Financial viability: Entrepreneurial attributes and Financial support. The results suggest that the best way of strengthening the viability of social enterprises is through entrepreneurship training (to enhance the business skills and experience of the entrepreneurs, and to propagate business planning), and to provide grants and subsidies to these firms. As no significant association was found between Financial viability and Strategy, we can conclude that the role of market competition is probably relatively week among Hungarian social enterprises. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.21415 |
| By: | Atoyan, Vardan; Matevosyan, Diana |
| Abstract: | The growing geopolitical tensions and regional instabilities in Eurasia raise urgent questions about the resilience of trade routes and infrastructure connectivity. This paper applies a graphbased approach to model the EU-Asia trade network and explores Armenia's potential as a transit hub within the framework of the Global Gateway strategy. The authors construct a weighted network of major regional players based on bilateral trade volumes, geographic distances, and route accessibility. In this network, nodes represent key countries, while edges capture trade relationships, with weights reflecting trade intensity and logistical characteristics. Using a set of graph-theoretical metrics, including degree centrality, betweenness centrality, closeness centrality, and eigenvector centrality, the authors assess the country's importance within the network, identifying its position as a potential chokepoint or facilitator of alternative trade routes. Stress-testing scenarios, including border closures, sanctions, or the reopening of previously closed borders, are simulated to evaluate the impact on trade flows and regional logistics. These scenarios simulate the dynamic nature of trade flows, considering disruptions that could reshape existing networks. Results indicate significant shifts in the network structure under stress, highlighting opportunities for Armenia to strengthen its strategic position as an alternative node in critical corridors. |
| Keywords: | Graph, Logistic Network, Eurasian Corridors, Trade, Armenia |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:328267 |
| By: | Quinet, Alain; Jaravel, Xavier; Schularick, Moritz; Zettelmeyer, Jeromin |
| Abstract: | • We present five guiding principles for European rearmament. Europe's rearmament should be (i) innovation-driven to support European technological capabilities, competitiveness, and productivity growth; (ii) aim for a rapid increase in production capacities for a high-low mix of military capabilities; (iii) rely on quantitative goalpost for R&D expenditures and an unmanned autonomous systems; (iv) build on independent European capabilities alongside NATO to reduce dependence on increasingly unreliable American assets; (v) substantially increase military support for Ukraine as the cost-efficient way towards European security in the short-run. • The central steps are the creation of a European defense single market, the reduction of national fragmentation, and the development of joint European defense capabilities. |
| Abstract: | • In diesem Papier formulieren wir fünf Leitprinzipien für die europäische Aufrüstung. Die europäische Aufrüstung sollte (i) innovationsgetrieben sein, um die technologischen Fähigkeiten, die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und das Produktivitätswachstum Europas zu stärken; (ii) auf einem schnellen Hochfahren industrieller Kapazitäten sowohl im Hoch- als auch im Niedrigtechnologiebereich abzielen; (iii) auf quantitativen Zielvorgaben für FE-Ausgaben und den Ausbau unbemannter autonomer Systeme beruhen; (iv) unabhängige europäische Fähigkeiten neben der NATO aufbauen, um die Abhängigkeit von zunehmend unzuverlässigen amerikanischen Ressourcen zu verringern; (v) die militärische Unterstützung für die Ukraine substanziell ausweiten, da eine siegreiche Ukraine kurzfristig der günstigste Weg für mehr Sicherheit in Europa darstellt. • Zentrale Schritte dorthin sind die Schaffung eines europäischen Verteidigungsbinnenmarktes, der Abbau nationaler Fragmentierung und der Aufbau gemeinsamer europäischer Verteidigungskapazitäten. |
| Keywords: | Europe, defense, single market, procurement, Europa, Verteidigung, Gemeinsamer Markt, Beschaffung |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:328252 |
| By: | Nóra Kungl (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Hana Ross (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); George Stefan |
| Abstract: | In August 2025, as part of a large fiscal package, Romania announced an increase in tobacco and alcohol excise taxes, news welcomed by proponents of public health. However, the announcement turned into a disappointment for the tobacco control community when the final increase in cigarette excise tax amounted to only 2.25%. This policy note outlines the reform and uses a simulation model to demonstrate the missed opportunity to adopt pro-health tobacco tax policy. By not implementing a 10% increase, as for other excises, the newly adopted schedule not only fails to reduce smoking prevalence but also deprives Romania of an opportunity to collect RON 1.657bn (EUR 326.6m) in additional tax revenues in 2025-2027. Moreover, an accelerated tax roadmap aligning Romania with the proposed EU Tobacco Taxation Directive by 2027 would raise an additional RON 4.73bn (EUR 932m), reduce smoking prevalence by 4%, and avert nearly 50, 000 smoking-related premature deaths. |
| Keywords: | Excise, Taxation, Tobacco, Smoking |
| JEL: | H24 I18 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:100 |
| By: | Zoltan Bartha |
| Abstract: | This study aims to reveal different varieties of capitalism and to uncover new patterns of development that emerged between 2010 and 2020. A hybrid model is applied that quantifies three pillars of development (Future - F, Outside - O, Inside - I) using supply-side and demand-side indicators that measure norms, institutions, and policies. Investigating 34 OECD members, this study describes five varieties of capitalism: traditional, dualistic, government-led, open market-based, and human capital-based models. It is suggested that the most significant cut-off point in the development of OECD economies in this period was along the green growth dimension, where European countries with a tradition in coordinated markets outperform the rest. Using Israel and Estonia as an example, it is also suggested that institutional and policy changes that enhance the quality of governance and make coordination more effective are the way out of the middle-income trap. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.19416 |
| By: | Tomic, Slobodan |
| Abstract: | AI systems are increasingly active agents in political discourse, shaping reputations, narratives, and public perceptions. This commentary examines three real-world cases from Serbia where AI chatbots—Grok and ChatGPT—asserted false claims, spreading false narratives about political collectives or regime-critical individuals. These incidents illustrate how, under the guise of technical neutrality, AI can reinforce dominant narratives, amplify disinformation, and undermine dissent. Drawing on a recently proposed framework for AI regulation (Tomić & Štimac, 2025), we show how failures across three dimensions—decision models, data sourcing, and interface semantics—create pathways for political manipulation and reputational harm. We conclude by reflecting on implications for political deliberation and calling for targeted regulatory and empirical responses. |
| Date: | 2025–10–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:w6az2_v1 |