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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Artikova, Aziza; Egamberdiev, Bekhzod; Khamidov, Imomjon; Primov, Abdulla |
| Abstract: | The development of appropriate climate change makes people perceive it in a certain way, and is critical to formulating appropriate environmental policies and environmental education campaigns. In this article, the authors discuss the perception of climate change in four Central Asian countries — namely, the Kyrgyz Republic, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan —as well as the Caucasus region and Eastern Europe. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Perception, Central Asia, Eastern Europe and Caucasus |
| JEL: | Q54 Q56 P48 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:330338 |
| By: | Jaan Masso; Maja Breznik; Liis Roosaar; Tibor T Meszmann |
| Abstract: | The growth of immigrant labour in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has put pressure on labour market institutions and actors shaping industrial relations. Estonia, Slovakia and Slovenia – countries representing different models of capitalism – have adopted different regulatory strategies to address the growing need for temporary migrant labour. In some sectors, the high presence of migrant workers on temporary contracts puts pressure on wages and working conditions, creating conditions for sectoral and company-based migrant labour regimes (MLR). Starting with the thesis on the divergence of industrial relations in the EU's eastern periphery, we investigate the roles of employers and trade unions in Estonia, Slovakia, and Slovenia in addressing the issues arising from the temporary employment of migrant workers. While there are convergences towards similar outcomes, there are also clear differences: from the near-absence of trade union action to help migrant workers to new forms of employee representation. In all three countries, the driving force behind the increased reliance on migrant labour has been some employers’ economic need to fill low-paid jobs. Our article shows that trade unions and employer organisations are involved to varying degrees in the national regulatory processes concerning changes to the labour market access of TCNs. However, their influence on sectoral or company-level migrant worker employment practices is low to non-existent. While these sector- and company-based MLRs are growing in significance, trade unions in particular are caught in a vicious cycle of deregulation and reregulation. |
| Date: | 2025–10–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:dpaper:73 |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad |
| Abstract: | This study examines the evolution of Azerbaijan’s tourism sector in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on the economic and policy consequences of prolonged land-border closures. Drawing on official statistics, international datasets, and comparative analysis with Georgia and Armenia, the paper investigates trends in inbound tourism, revenue generation, employment, and investment across 2016–2024. The findings reveal that while the sector has demonstrated signs of recovery—particularly through growth in higher-value and diversified visitor segments—Azerbaijan’s performance remains significantly below pre-pandemic levels and lags behind regional peers. The analysis identifies structural inefficiencies, methodological weaknesses in statistical reporting, and policy misalignments that constrain sectoral growth. It concludes that restrictive border and mobility policies are incompatible with Azerbaijan’s stated objectives of tourism-led diversification and sustainable development. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, tourism policy, COVID-19 recovery, border closure, non-oil economy, South Caucasus, UNWTO standards, economic diversification |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:330399 |
| By: | Dang, Hai-Anh H (World Bank); Nguyen, Cuong Viet (National Economics University Vietnam) |
| Abstract: | Obtaining comparable poverty estimates over time is critical for monitoring poverty trends and informing effective poverty reduction policies. Yet hardly any developing countries could construct consistent poverty trends over extended time periods due to changes to the consumption survey questionnaires and poverty lines that reflect changing consumption patterns and living standards. Furthermore, spatial and temporal deflators could be unavailable or could have been unsystematically employed, which could result in worsening incomparability of consumption aggregates. We propose a solution to these data challenges by applying data imputation to 13 survey rounds for Viet Nam during 1993-2022. Our results provide new, comparable, and smoother estimates of poverty trends for Viet Nam. We also offer a useful case study for other similar contexts. |
| Keywords: | poverty, living standard, poverty imputation, household surveys, Viet Nam |
| JEL: | C15 I32 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18236 |
| By: | Perrotta Berlin, Maria (Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics); Lvovkskyi, Lev (BEROC) |
| Abstract: | In the wake of international sanctions, Russia has intensified its engagement in Africa, with potential ramifications for democracy, international relations, and conflict dynamics. This paper examines whether the expanding presence of Russian actors has influenced the allocation and composition of development aid from Western partners, particularly after the invasion of Ukraine. Given established evidence on the local socioeconomic and political effects of foreign aid, such shifts could shape public perceptions of Western development efforts and carry wider geopolitical and developmental implications. |
| Keywords: | foreign aid; Russia; World Bank |
| JEL: | F35 O12 O19 O55 P45 |
| Date: | 2025–11–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:hasite:0064 |
| By: | Tamilina, Larysa |
| Abstract: | Using Ukraine as an example, this study explores how performance-based and ideational factors interact in shaping institutional trust under wartime conditions. Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) is employed to analyse their joint presence in configurations associated with high and low levels of trust in state institutions. The findings suggest that trust is primarily shaped by performance indicators—economic satisfaction, perceived corruption, and personal safety—while ideational factors such as national identity, war-related ideologies, and democratic values play a secondary role. However, misalignment with dominant ideational narratives tend to exacerbate distrust during conflict, especially when institutional performance is perceived as weak. These results are used to argue that a divergence may appear between regime and institutional legitimacy in conflict-affected regions. |
| Keywords: | Institutional trust, interstate conflicts, legitimacy, Ukraine, fsQCA. |
| JEL: | C1 K4 P2 |
| Date: | 2025–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126536 |
| By: | Nestorova, Nedialko; Ventsislavova Georgieva, Daniela |
| Abstract: | The paper analyses the geographical concentration and sustainability of furniture exports from Bulgaria for the period 2015-2024. The focus of the research is on the main trading partners and the dynamics of foreign trade relationships. The methodology used is based on the application of geographical concentration (GCr) and geographical sustainability (GSr) indicators. The findings of the analysis indicate that a balanced structure, sustainability over time, and limited dependence on external shocks characterise the export of furniture from Bulgaria. Major trading partners account for approximately 51% of total exports, with 74% of them maintaining their positions in the top 5 over the entire analysed period |
| Keywords: | furniture trade, export concentration, trade stability |
| JEL: | F1 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126241 |
| By: | Adrjan, Pawel (Indeed Hiring Lab); Gromadzki, Jan (Vienna University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether exclusionary government rhetoric targeting a minority group affects residents' migration decisions. In 2019, almost 100 local governments in Poland voted to declare their localities "free from LGBTQ ideology, " providing a unique setting in which government narratives suddenly changed, but the legal situation of targeted minorities remained the same. We study the impact of these resolutions on migration intentions using novel data on domestic and international job search from a large global job site. Comparing counties with anti-LGBTQ resolutions to neighboring counties in a difference-in-differences design, we find that the resolutions increased domestic out-of-county job search by 12 percent and international job search by 15 percent. Our results are likely driven by the shock to beliefs about local social norms, as we find the largest effects in counties with relatively low prior support for far-right parties. We also present suggestive evidence that the rise in job search translated into actual migration, with the treated counties losing nearly 1 percent of their young adult population. |
| Keywords: | job search, migration intentions, migration, discrimination, LGBTQ |
| JEL: | F22 R23 N40 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18217 |
| By: | Maja Breznik; Nermin Oruč; Veronika Bajt; Amela Kurta; Katerina Kočkovska Šetinc |
| Abstract: | This paper examines higher education institutions as a factor facilitating international labour migration. Drawing on the notion of the education-migration nexus, it explores the role of higher education institutions as channels of labour migration in Slovenia and Bosnia and Herzegovina within the transnational labour migration regime. Our research data, obtained through the compilation of statistics, contextual factors, and interviews, show that educational institutions have resolved internal contradictions, such as declining enrolment in Slovenia and the lack of labour market absorption capacity in Bosnia and Herzegovina, by aligning with migration policies. These linkages have led to international students being exploited as a workforce for sweatshops in Slovenia and to a workforce being produced for foreign labour markets in Bosnia and Herzegovina. This paper provides both a theoretical contribution and new empirical insights into the education-migration nexus from the perspectives of two Western periphery countries that have been largely neglected in the existing literature. |
| Date: | 2025–10–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:dpaper:75 |
| By: | Anahit Matinyan (Central Bank of Armenia); Ardash Kilejian (Central Bank of Armenia); Gevorg Minasyan (Central Bank of Armenia); Aleksandr Shirkhanyan (Central Bank of Armenia) |
| Abstract: | Central banks increasingly rely on communication to anchor inflation expectations, yet evidence from developing economies is limited. This paper uses a randomized survey experiment in Armenia to examine how central bank communication affects inflation perceptions and expectations. The experiment tests three treatments: actual inflation, the Central Bank of Armenia’s (CBA) 4 percent target, and an unrelated numerical cue. Information on actual inflation improves perceptions and expectations, aligning them with observed inflation, while the CBA’s target influences expectations indirectly through perceptions. In contrast, the irrelevant numerical cue has no effect, underscoring the role of context and informational relevance. Comparing results with similar survey data from Armenia’s high-inflation episode in 2023 shows that target communication is more effective when inflation is elevated. Taken together, these findings offer new evidence on the effectiveness of central bank communication, emphasizing the importance of informational relevance and its dependence on the prevailing inflationary environment. The paper also contributes to the literature by showing how personal inflation experiences – anchored in salient “marker products†– shape perceptions and expectations in a developing economy context. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy, Inflation Expectations, Inflation Perceptions, Central Bank Communication, Randomized Controlled Trial, Anchoring |
| JEL: | E31 E52 D84 C93 E58 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ara:wpaper:wp-2025-02 |
| By: | Stephen Ayerst; Nina Chebotareva; Oksana Dynnikova; Amanda Edwards; Charles Zhang |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a structural model of interconnected European labor markets to examine how further EU integration would impact the Western Balkan economies and how policy can improve output and employment in these countries. Risks of increased emigration from further integration can be managed through promoting faster productivity growth, including through structural reforms. Model simulations show that productivity increases of 30 percent, similar to previous EU accession cases, would results in wage growth, help close the unemployment gap, and offset increased emigration through higher immigration and labor participation. Policies to improve the efficiency of the labor market (participation, job search, production) are essential to boost employment and support output. |
| Keywords: | Western Balkans; Labor Markets; Migration; EU Accession |
| Date: | 2025–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/226 |
| By: | Perju, Genoveva-Elena |
| Abstract: | This study examines the long-term economic consequences of institutional discrimination through an analysis of the formal exclusion of the Romanian majority from Transylvania's feudal institutions between 1366-1437. Using path dependence theory as a theoretical framework, we investigate whether this historical exclusion created persistent trajectories of institutional underdevelopment and economic inequality that continue to influence the region's socioeconomic structure today. Our empirical analysis employs county-level data across Romania, comparing Transylvanian counties to other historical regions using regression models that control for contemporary socioeconomic factors. The results indicate that counties in historical Transylvania exhibit significantly lower GDP per capita (€2, 150 less on average) and higher income inequality (3.5 percentage points higher Gini coefficient) compared to other Romanian regions. These findings provide robust empirical evidence supporting the hypothesis that medieval institutional exclusion created path-dependent trajectories that continue to shape economic outcomes seven centuries later. The study contributes to the broader literature on institutional economics, historical determinants of development, and the persistence of inequality, while offering insights into how privilege structures can become embedded in regional economic systems across centuries. |
| Keywords: | · Path dependence · Institutional discrimination · Economic development · Historical persistence · Regional inequality · Transylvania · Feudal institutions · Extractive institutions |
| JEL: | N93 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125924 |
| By: | Lazar, Cristina; Bostan, Ionel; Asalos, Nicoleta |
| Abstract: | Romania is facing a structural labor shortage, caused by factors such as demographic decline, massive external migration, an aging active population, and the mismatch between the education system and labor market demands. In this context, one of the solutions identified by the authorities is the controlled admission of quotas of foreign workers. This article analyzes the measures adopted to facilitate the legal import of labor and follows recent developments concerning the employment and posting of non-EU citizens in Romania, in parallel with trends in repeatedly declared vacant jobs. It presents relevant statistical data for the period 2021–2024 and puts forward concrete proposals for making the work permit and visa system more flexible, simplifying administrative procedures, and incentivizing employers through fiscal measures. The goal is to help balance the labor market and mitigate the negative effects of migration by promoting a model of legal and sustainable mobility that benefits both the national economy and foreign workers and their countries of origin. |
| Keywords: | Romania, labor market balance, deficit, labor import, quotas of foreign workers. |
| JEL: | J08 J11 J21 J23 J61 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126172 |
| By: | Miklós Koren; Krisztina Orban |
| Abstract: | Management quality drives firm performance and aggregate productivity, yet the supply of managerial talent remains poorly understood. A key friction is that hired managers cannot fully appropriate the surplus they generate, unlike entrepreneurs who own their firms, creating a wedge between private and social returns to management. Here we develop a general equilibrium model to quantify how this corporate governance friction distorts talent allocation between entrepreneurship, management, and employment. Using the universe of Hungarian firms and CEOs (1986--2022), we exploit the transition to capitalism—when the count of enterprises increased from 21, 000 to 115, 000 in three years—to identify the parameters of the model. We find that managers capture only 60% of the surplus they create, resulting in too few professional managers and too many less-productive entrepreneurs. Eliminating this friction would raise GDP per worker by 4% through improved occupational composition. Uniform subsidies fail to correct the misallocation, raising GDP by only 0.1%. Our results show that management interventions' aggregate effects depend critically on targeting the specific friction between hired managers and entrepreneurs rather than expanding the overall pool of business leaders. |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ceu:econwp:2025_2 |
| By: | Dragan Aleksić; Mihail Arandarenko; Ines Chrťan; Tibor T Meszmann |
| Abstract: | Serbian migrant workers have played a prominent role in the expansion of the Slovak automotive sector in the 2016-2019 period, but became a less dominant migrant group by 2023. Analysing statistical data on Serbian labour migrants in Slovakia, migrant workers in Slovak automotive companies, as well as secondary sources and interviews, in this article we shed light on the determinants of temporary or circular labour migration and its interrelation with a sectoral and company-based labour regime. Our assessment incorporates factors such as the needs of employers, sector-specific considerations, the role of intermediaries and the motivations of migrant workers. We show that migrant workers’ labour was a key factor in subsidiaries of global automotive companies' strategy to expand production and employment, and simultaneously cut costs, putting constant pressure on working conditions and wages. Thus we found that employers - user companies were consciously shaping such a migrant labour based regime. Unions could only modestly remedy the highly flexible arrangement. Finally, our exercise shows that Serbian workers integrated in a highly precarious manner in Slovak automotives, which corresponds to declining migration trends from Serbia since 2019. |
| Date: | 2025–10–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:dpaper:77 |
| By: | Quivine Ndomo; Elif Naz Kayran; Ilona Bontenbal; Simona Brunnerová; Sarah Tornberg; Mirjam Pot; Selma Kadi; Martin Kahanec |
| Abstract: | This article investigates how migrant labour regimes shape long-term care (LTC) work in Austria, Finland, and Slovakia, amid rising demographic pressures and EU-wide care workforce shortages. Drawing on 39 qualitative interviews with migrant care workers and stakeholders, we apply a layered theoretical framework combining labour process theory and migrant labour regime theory centred on legal dualism, transnationalism, and labour agency to analyse the lived experiences of migrant LTC work. The study reveals how migration, industrial relations, and welfare regimes interact with labour agency to produce segmented and structurally marginal care roles for migrants. Despite divergent pathways into LTC including circular self-employment in Austria, education-based integration in Finland, and informal agency recruitment in Slovakia, all three regimes converge in their reliance on precarious, undervalued migrant labour. Migrant workers navigate these conditions through individualised strategies of resilience and reworking, with limited access to collective representation. Our findings highlight the emergence of niche migrant labour regimes that sustain care provision while reinforcing exclusion from core labour protections. The article contributes to industrial relations scholarship by theorising migrant LTC work as a labour process shaped by legal differentiation, constrained agency, and multi-scalar governance, raising critical questions about equity and sustainability in European care systems. |
| Date: | 2025–10–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:dpaper:74 |
| By: | Miklós Koren; Krisztina Orban; Bálint Szilágyi; Almos Telegdy; András Vereckei |
| Abstract: | How much do CEOs matter for firm performance? We estimate the causal effect of CEO quality on productivity using comprehensive administrative data covering the universe of Hungarian firms and CEOs from 1992--2022. We develop a production function framework that separates owner-controlled strategic decisions from CEO-controlled operational decisions. To address the severe measurement error in CEO fixed effects arising from short tenures, we introduce a placebo-controlled event study design: we compare actual CEO transitions to randomly assigned fake transitions in firms with stable leadership. The results reveal that a CEO better than the incumbent increases firm performance by 3% while a worse CEO decreases it by 2%. CEO changes contribute to the variance growth of productivity by 30% in the first 10 years of the firm's existence. The placebo-controlled methodology provides a general solution for estimating individual effects in short-panel settings. |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ceu:econwp:2025_1 |