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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Gjorgji Gockov (Faculty of Economics-Skopje, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, North Macedonia); Goran Hristovski (Faculty of Economics-Skopje, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, North Macedonia) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the dynamic return spillovers among ten Eastern European stock markets using an extended joint connectedness approach. We analyze daily log returns from 2010 to 2024 for equity indices of Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Slovenia, North Macedonia, Romania, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Ukraine. We employ the Diebold-Yilmaz connectedness framework, augmented with a Time-Varying Parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) model to capture evolving relationships, and incorporate the extended joint spillover methodology to address bias from normalization. The Connectedness Approach R package is used for implementation. Our results show that these markets exhibit a moderate degree of interconnectedness on average - the Total Connectedness Index is around 25%, indicating that roughly one-quarter of forecast variance is due to cross-market shocks. Spillovers are highly time-varying, with pronounced surges during major crises such as the European sovereign debt crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Directional spillover analysis reveals that larger markets (e.g., Romania, Poland, Czech Republic) tend to be net transmitters of shocks, whereas smaller frontier markets (e.g., Serbia, Bosnia, North Macedonia) are net recipients. The extended joint connectedness measures largely confirm the traditional spillover estimates while providing a more theoretically grounded aggregate index. These findings shed light on the evolving integration of Eastern European stock markets, offering insights for portfolio diversification and financial stability monitoring. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic connectedness, Eastern European stock markets, Spillovers, Extended Joint connectedness |
| JEL: | C32 G11 G15 |
| Date: | 2025–12–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoh:conpro:2025:i:6:p:46-60 |
| By: | Samkova, Mascha |
| Abstract: | This paper employs a novel approach in applying the cheap talk signalling game to study the EU accession game of the 10 Central and Eastern European states that joined the European Union in 2004 and 2007. The interdisciplinary application of a Bayesian game to international relations reveals the strategic interactions between the Union and applicant states in the light of the Copenhagen criteria and the unprecedented challenges countries faced during the post-Communist transition since 1989. The paper first presents the historical background about the EU accession process, debates on EU conditionality and existing game-theoretical approaches, before presenting the timeline and data on accession and reform speed of applicant states from 1989 to 2007. The model applies a signalling game to the negotiations process where the European Commission’s annual progress reports are seen as costless, unverifiable and observable signals to the applicant states about their final EU accession speed. It is demonstrated that possible equilibria outcomes can be uninformative or informative, depending on the players’ divergence of interests with regards to reform speed. Furthermore, the model is used to explain the outcomes seen in three ex-post case studies, taking into account additional domestic and external factors that shaped the varying outcomes of accession and reform speeds in the two EU enlargement waves in the 2000s. |
| Date: | 2026–02–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:43bwe_v1 |
| By: | Yuriy Gorodnichenko; Maurice Obstfeld |
| Abstract: | The monumental task of rebuilding postwar Ukraine requires early planning and identification of growth strategies. The earlier accession of Eastern European countries to the European Union and NATO offers a template that relies on massive foreign direct investment and public structural funds. This approach helps to raise incomes directly and can create a virtuous circle where capital deepening facilitates technological upgrades and repatriation of war refugees, which in turn stimulate more investment. We show theoretically that the government can refine this strategy by internalizing positive externalities from having a higher capital stock: Investment in physical capital relaxes borrowing constraints (thus allowing more capital inflows) and raises wages (thus encouraging more Ukrainian refugees to return home). |
| JEL: | E2 F2 F5 P2 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34715 |
| By: | Ana Paula Pellegrino; Benjamin R. Burnley; Laia Balcells |
| Abstract: | Does the outbreak of a major international war change political discourse? Drawing on theories of political communication and elite cueing, identity salience, and threat perception, we hypothesize that the outbreak of a war of aggression by a major power increases the use of nationalist rhetoric by heads of government in other, non-belligerent, states. To test this hypothesis, we analyse over 10, 000 tweets by heads of government from 130 countries before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. |
| Keywords: | Nationalism, Conflict, Social networks |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2026-2 |
| By: | Tamara Kaftandjieva (School of Economics and Business, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia); Metka Tekavčič (School of Economics and Business, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia) |
| Abstract: | The Balkan wine industry, dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), faces increasing pressure to adopt sustainability practices, yet efforts remain fragmented due to misaligned stakeholder interests and weak governance coordination. This paper applies stakeholder mapping to identify key actors, relationships, and governance levers influencing sustainability across Slovenia, Serbia, and North Macedonia. Using eight semi-structured interviews, document analysis, and triangulation through policy review, the study constructs a stakeholder map based on power, interest, and feasibility dimensions. Stakeholders were classified as internal or external and positioned within a power–interest matrix using qualitative coding and document triangulation. Findings reveal four clusters: Key Players, Context Setters, Subjects, and Minimal Stakeholders, whose interactions shape governance outcomes. Misalignments emerge between policy ambition and SME capacity, between market power and sustainability incentives, and between fragmented institutional levels. The analysis highlights how high interest often fails to produce action when feasibility is constrained. The study contributes a region-specific governance roadmap that links stakeholder alignment with actionable policy levers. It provides insights into how SMEs, associations and policymakers can strengthen coordination, integrate demand-side incentives and accelerate sustainability transitions in the Balkan wine value chain. |
| Keywords: | Stakeholder mapping; Power–interest matrix; Wine value chain; Sustainability governance; Balkan region; Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs); Stakeholder clusters; Value chain governance |
| JEL: | Q56 |
| Date: | 2025–12–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoh:conpro:2025:i:6:p:218-230 |
| By: | Zhiwu Hong (China University of Political Science and Law); Linlin Niu (Xiamen University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk (GPR) transmits to Eurozone sovereign bond yields using an affine macro-finance yield net model. We find GPR shocks raise inflation expectations immediately with significance and persistence, subsequently lifting sovereign yields most sharply at the medium term, explaining about 30\% of yield variation at a five-year horizon. Surprisingly, transmission is strongest in fiscally robust members, not high-debt countries. This pattern aligns with national commitments to Ukraine, revealing that direct fiscal engagements---enabled by their fiscal space---drive risk pricing, underscoring the monetary-fiscal trade-offs facing policymakers under geopolitical stress. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitical risk; Eurozone; Sovereign risk premia; Fiscal exposure; Affine term structure models |
| JEL: | C32 E31 E43 F51 G15 |
| Date: | 2026–01–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wyi:wpaper:002614 |
| By: | Bojan Shimbov (University Jaume I, Castellon); Oliver Morrissey (University of Nottingham); Maite Alguacil (University Jaume I, Castellon) |
| Abstract: | Purpose Remittances are a significant source of household income and foreign exchange inflows for the Republic of North Macedonia (MKD) due to the relatively large share of workers who have emigrated, mostly to the EU. This paper analyses data from a survey of almost 2000 households that receive remittances to investigate how households use the income. Although remittances are mostly used for consumption spending, a specific focus of the analysis is on the almost 20% of households that invest or save the money. What are the characteristics of these households, and the determinants of the amount and share invested or saved? The paper then estimates the macroeconomic impact of remittances in terms of the effect on consumption, investment, and saving. Design/methodology/approach This paper makes use of a survey of almost 2000 households receiving remittances in North Macedonia (MKD) in 2021 to empirically investigate how the income is used and if this is related to characteristics of the migrants and households. Unfortunately, the survey was only for receiving households (it is not possible to compare with non-receiving households), data on household characteristics are limited, and it is only a cross-section (although some retrospective questions were included). The decision of how to use remittances received is analyzed by a set of discrete choice models. On the one hand, we have considered the characteristics of the households receiving the remittances (family income, employment, age, gender, ethnicity, settlement type, place of residence), and on the other hand, we have considered factors like: i) remittance timing, ii) trends, and iii) migrant’s home country attachment. For robustness checks, we have used PPLM regressions like I/S/C (%)*total RR and the Zero-inflated Model. Findings North Macedonia is facing a growing trend of migration, which, if not addressed, can potentially cause significant socio-economic disruptions in the country going forward. The stock of migrant population to total population ratio stood at 37 percent in 2020, which is the third highest in the region after Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina, and well above the average for developing countries. Most of the migrants go to the EU (mostly Germany and Italy) or Switzerland, as well as to Turkey. Finally, migrants from North Macedonia tend to be young people in their most productive years, which may pose serious challenges to development going forward. Figure 1: Stock of migrants from North Macedonia and migration rate |
| Keywords: | Migration, Remittances, Economic growth |
| JEL: | F22 F24 F43 E21 |
| Date: | 2025–12–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoh:conpro:2025:i:6:p:293-298 |
| By: | Davis, Elizabeth; Ruppert, Kirstie A.; Le, Chau My Thi; Cao, Dat; Cao, Trung |
| Abstract: | Bear bile is a highly demanded medicinal product in certain areas of Vietnam, which contributes to the decline of Asiatic black bears and sun bears. Multiple conservation strategies, such as closing bear farms and raising awareness, have been enacted in Vietnam to address this issue, but there have been few targeted demand reduction efforts. Here, we present the design and evaluation of a campaign to reduce demand for bear bile, founded on the principles of conservation marketing. We used a Theory of Change informed by baseline consumer research and consultations with international and local stakeholders to guide the design of the campaign. We used quantitative surveys to measure the prevalence of bear bile use in a Before-After-Control-Treatment (BACT) design (n = 1, 690 individuals (pre-campaign: 767; post-campaign: 923)). Bear bile use declined by 97% in our treatment site (from 16% (CI: 12 – 19%) to 1% (CI: 0.3 – 2%)), and did not change significantly in the control site. We can conclude that our campaign did change behavior, and reduced demand for bear bile in our target community. We also found a significant shift to disagreement for the belief “Bears are easy to find in the wild”, indicating that accurate knowledge about bear population decline in Vietnam increased in the treatment site. Our results illustrate the conservation potential of demand reduction campaigns, particularly when paired with efforts to decrease the available supply of wildlife products. |
| Date: | 2026–02–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:mdwjy_v2 |