|
on Transition Economics |
| By: | Mariusz Kapuściński (Narodowy Bank Polski) |
| Abstract: | In this research note I propose a simple yet novel method to decompose changes in the credit-to-GDP ratio. Instead of modelling or filtering the credit-to-GDP ratio directly, I make a historical decomposition of the components of the ratio. I use Bayesian structural vector autoregressive models identified with sign and zero restrictions. Then, I make a historical decomposition of the credit-to-GDP ratio based on the decompositions of its components. I apply the method to data for Poland. I find that between 64 and 70% of (the explainable part of) the decrease in the credit-to-GDP ratio in Poland after the COVID-19 pandemic can be attributed to shocks affecting mainly demand for credit, while credit supply shocks made up the remaining 30-36% of the decrease. |
| Keywords: | credit, banking, macro-finance, VAR modelling |
| JEL: | E51 G21 E44 C32 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:381 |
| By: | Muharrem Cevik (Bilecik Seyh Edebali University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how sanctions affect Russia's bilateral creative trade, focusing on the sanction episodes following the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Using annual bilateral data for 197 countries over the period 2002-2023 and drawing on recent advances in gravity-based trade estimation, the analysis situates sanctions involving Russia within a general-equilibrium-consistent global trade framework. The results show that sanctions involving Russia are associated with large and persistent declines in Russia's bilateral creative trade, with effects intensifying across successive sanction episodes. The magnitude of these effects varies substantially across partner countries and by sanction direction, suggesting notable heterogeneity in Russia's creative trade responses to sanctions. |
| Keywords: | Creative Trade; Sanctions; Gravity Model; Russia |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F51 Z10 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202601 |
| By: | Manzano, Andrea (IHE - The Swedish Institute for Health Economics); Czech, Marcin (Institute of Mother and Child); Gierczyński, Jakub (DEJG Health and Disease Management Institute); Hołownia-Voloskova, Malwina (Institute of Mother and Child, Warsaw, Poland; Certara, Krakow, Poland); Koczkodaj, Paweł (Cancer Epidemiology and Primary Prevention Department; Maria Sklodowska-Curie National Research Institute of Oncology, Warsaw, Poland); Nowakowski, Andrzej (Maria Sklodowska-Curie National Research Institute of Oncology, Warsaw, Poland); Rzucidło-Zając, Patrycja (Institute for Patients' Rights and Health Education Grzegorz Święch, OFF School Foundation); Święch, Grzegorz (OFF School Foundation); Mańczuk, Marta (Cancer Epidemiology and Primary Prevention Department, Maria Sklodowska-Curie National Research Institute of Oncology, Warsaw, Poland); Romeo, Silvia (European Cancer Organisation); Košir, Urška (IHE - The Swedish Institute for Health Economics) |
| Abstract: | Cervical cancer is one of the most preventable cancers, yet it continues to place a heavy and unnecessary burden on women in Poland. Poland now stands at a pivotal moment in the fight against HPV-related cancers. Despite one of the highest cervical cancer burdens in the EU, new momentum such as gender-neutral HPV vaccination and stronger national cancer strategies to improved health data systems, create a unique opportunity for change. <p> This report (white paper) sets out a clear, evidence-based roadmap to move from fragmented pilots to coordinated national action, accelerating progress toward the elimination of cervical cancer and the reduction of all HPV-driven cancers across the life course. |
| Keywords: | women’s cancers; cervical cancer; gynecological cancer; prevention; HPV vaccination; screening; cancer; Poland; Polen |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ihewps:2026_001 |
| By: | Mundschenk, Lovisa; Janssen, Lisa; Werner, Hannah (University of Zurich); Reiljan, Andres; Cicchi, Lorenzo |
| Abstract: | Climate change has become increasingly politicized, prompting concerns that it may generate new societal rifts. While elite-level rhetoric—particularly among radical right actors—has grown more adversarial, it remains unclear whether similar affective divisions have emerged among citizens. Using cross-national survey data, this paper examines affective polarization over climate change in France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, and Poland. Mirroring real-world debates that pit stricter climate protection against economic prosperity, we assess mutual affect between individuals on either side of this division, and estimate polarization across the full attitudinal spectrum. Across all countries, we find significant affective polarization with a clear asymmetric pattern: pro-climate citizens express clear in-group warmth and out-group coldness, whereas pro-growth citizens show little affective opposition and in some cases even evaluate climate-oriented individuals more positively than their own group. Moreover, affective polarization among pro-climate respondents is not associated with reduced political tolerance. These findings suggest that mass affective polarization over climate action is less entrenched than elite discourse implies. |
| Date: | 2026–01–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:pm3qd_v1 |
| By: | Trinh Phuc Hung; Aleksandar Vasilevv |
| Abstract: | This research aimed to identify existence of a New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Vietnam. The examined period was 2012Q2 – 2025Q2, using secondary macroeconomics data and the Generalised Moments Method at 95% level of confidence. The dependent variables were price inflation and wage inflation, while the independent variables were the expected future inflation, three proxies of real marginal cost (the output gap, unit labour cost and labour income share), and the long-short interest rate spread. Findings from the research confirmed the existence of the traditional NKPC in Vietnam, with inflation positively influenced by the real marginal cost. Among the proxies, the conventional output gap is not totally outdated, having a positive, weak but statistically significant impact on wage inflation. Still, proxies related to the labour market were much stronger, positive determinants of both price and wage inflations. The inclusion of the interest rate spread made the effects of the proxies (on inflation) slightly stronger. A positive relationship was also found between current and expected future inflation, and inflation persistence in Vietnam was witnessed. Compared to some other emerging, open economies in the world, the Phillips curve in Vietnam in the period was flatter. The research wrapped up with some implications for academic researchers and Vietnam’s central bank, specifically regarding the cautious application of the structural NKPC model to explain short-run inflation dynamics in monetary decisions in Vietnam. |
| Keywords: | New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC), price inflation, wage inflation, output gap, unit labour cost, labour income share, Generalised Moments Method (GMM). |
| JEL: | E31 J31 J33 |
| Date: | 2026–01–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2026_02 |
| By: | Petrick, Martin; Robinson, Sarah; Kosimov, Alisher |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the transformation of livestock value chains in peri-urban areas of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, focusing on the dynamics of livestock production, land use, and downstream supply chains. Drawing on unique farm-level data and qualitative research, we examine the limited progress of agri-food value chain modernisation in the region. Findings reveal that while urban demand for meat and processed food has grown, the smallholder-dominated livestock sector remains constrained by deficient fodder resources, fragmented production, and limited access to modern processing and retail channels. Despite massive growth of livestock numbers kept in rural households, livestock intensification has progressed only slowly, with large-scale enterprises representing a small but dynamic segment. Our survey data shows that smallholders rely heavily on informal market arrangements and local sales channels, often constrained by insufficient vertical coordination and limited quality enforcement. Large enterprises and feedlots often benefit from government support and exhibit advanced integration, with enhanced genetics, own processing plants, and branded retailing. This bifurcated structure in the livestock sector underscores challenges in transitioning toward modern value chains. Government interventions, including subsidies and cooperative development, have largely failed to integrate smallholders or address systemic bottlenecks. We discuss the options for inclusive strategies, such as strengthening public governance or leveraging medium-scale farmers. Our findings highlight the delayed transformation of Central Asia's livestock value chains compared to other emerging economies. We suggest that in Central Asia, intensive larger farms have some potentials to overcome many of the trade-offs inherent in the prevailing smallholder livestock systems. |
| Keywords: | Livestock value chains, Central Asia, Smallholder farming, Agri-food transformation, Peri-urban livestock systems |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamodp:336247 |
| By: | Arinc, Ibrahim Said (SOCAR Türkiye) |
| Abstract: | This article examines critical mineral supply chains through a geo-economic and governance-oriented lens, drawing on Global Value Chain (GVC) theory and insights from asymmetric interdependence. It argues that supply vulnerabilities extend beyond geological endowment and extraction, increasingly reflecting coordination failures across transnational value chains, particularly at midstream and downstream stages involving refining, processing, logistics, certification, and regulatory alignment. While existing scholarship has largely treated hydrocarbon corridors and critical mineral supply risks as separate domains, limited attention has been paid to corridor-based governance arrangements capable of coordinating extraction, transit, processing, and market access across Eurasia. The study adopts a qualitative, policy-oriented methodology combining conceptual analysis, review of institutional and policy frameworks, and an embedded case study of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC). The SGC serves as an institutional reference to examine how geographically connected actors, including Central Asian producers, Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and European markets, have managed asymmetric interdependence through long-term cooperation, intergovernmental frameworks, and coordinated state and commercial participation. Building on these insights, the article develops a corridor-based governance perspective for Eurasian critical mineral supply chains. It conceptualizes the Eurasian Critical Minerals Corridor not as an existing institutional structure, but as an analytical framework for examining how variable-geometry cooperation can structure interdependence, reduce exposure to value-chain vulnerabilities, and support more resilient supply arrangements. In doing so, the article advances a governance-centered interpretation of critical mineral supply chains and demonstrates how institutional lessons from energy corridors can inform policy debates on critical mineral security and the political economy of the energy transition. |
| Date: | 2026–01–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:exjsp_v1 |
| By: | Kokubun, Axl |
| Abstract: | The paper analyses the breakup of Yugoslavia, the escalation of the Bosnian war, and the evolution of international peace diplomacy, in order to clarify the political and military conditions that led to the 1995 Dayton Accords. It argues that Yugoslavia’s collapse stemmed not from a simple state breakup but from the interaction of complex ethnic configurations, deep economic crisis, and nationalist mobilisation by political elites, especially hardline Serbian nationalism which shattered federal cohesion and made Bosnia and Herzegovina’s multiethnic landscape a focal point of violent contestation and international concern. Comparing Slovenia and Croatia, where ethnic homogeneity, limited territorial objectives, and early international recognition facilitated relatively short conflicts, with Bosnia, where highly mixed populations and overlapping territorial claims produced protracted, all‑out war, the paper shows why Bosnia required full‑scale external intervention. Humanitarian and strategic crises such as the Sarajevo siege, the Srebrenica massacre, and mass displacement exposed the powerlessness of traditional UN peacekeeping and the ineffectiveness of diplomacy without credible force. The study then traces how fragmented and militarily unsupported early initiatives by the UN, EU, and the United States gradually gave way, under the pressure of changing battlefield dynamics, sanctions, domestic politics in Western states, and U.S. congressional pressure to a more unified Western strategy that combined military pressure with coercive diplomacy. It highlights the decisive role of active U.S. engagement, which shifted from conflict management to conflict resolution and leveraged the interests of Milošević, Tuđman, and Izetbegović to push negotiations forward. Overall, the thesis concludes that the Bosnian conflict was structurally produced by intertwined domestic and international factors, and that an effective peace settlement became possible only when military and diplomatic instruments were aligned under a strategy capable of exerting clear coercive leverage, offering broader lessons about the possibilities and limits of international intervention in civil wars. |
| Date: | 2026–01–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:rz7tm_v1 |
| By: | Sebastian Ottinger; Elizaveta Zelnitskaia |
| Abstract: | Why do cities emerge where they do? This paper exploits a rule-based transport network in Imperial Russia to study the origins of urban centers. The yams postal system, introduced by the Mongols in the thirteenth century and maintained by Muscovy, required relay stations in regular intervals to change horses, creating an infrastructure grid whose spacing reflected logistics rather than geography or pre-existing settlements. We digitize all stations listed in the 1777 Russian Road Guide along a sample of 15 major routes, and divide rays between consecutive stops into 0.5 km cells. In modern satellite data, cells located at the historical interval where horses were changed are about thirty percent brighter today than neighboring cells before or after that range. The effect is robust to first- and second-nature controls, ray fixed effects, and controlling of pre-1800 settlements, and is absent for the later Trans-Siberian Railway. Additional analyses show that subsequent city growth correlates little with geographic endowments, but was amplified by later infrastructure investments, suggesting that administrative accidents – not natural advantages – seeded some of Russia’s urban geography. The findings illustrate how spatial inequality can arise from arbitrary historical coordination points, with lasting consequences for the distribution of economic activity. |
| Keywords: | City Location, Path Dependence, Transport Infrastructure, Natural Advantage |
| JEL: | N73 O18 R11 R12 H11 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp807 |
| By: | Hiroyuki Yamada (Keio University); Anh Tuyet Nguyen (Independent Researcher); Yasuharu Shimamura (Aoyama Gakuin University); Midori Matsushima (University of Tsukuba) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates whether asymmetric information in the public health insurance market remains empirically relevant as coverage approaches universal levels. Focusing on Vietnam’s public health insurance system – characterized by a uniform benefit package and a gradual transition toward universal health coverage – we analyze five waves of nationally representative survey data spanning 2004 to 2020. Following the methodology of Chiappori and Salanié (2000), we test for a conditional correlation between insurance enrollment and realized health risks. Our results consistently demonstrate the persistence of asymmetric information throughout the study period, even as aggregate coverage among working-age adults exceeded 80% by 2020. Subgroup analyses reveal that while selection effects weaken in groups subject to near-automatic enrollment, such as government employees and students, they remain deeply entrenched among private-sector workers, the self-employed, and dependents who retain greater discretion in participation. These findings underscore that high aggregate coverage does not mechanically eliminate informational frictions. Consequently, the study highlights the critical importance of enrollment design and effective enforcement mechanisms in sustaining robust risk pooling and financial viability during the final stages of the transition to Universal Health Coverage. |
| Keywords: | Asymmetric Information; Public Health Insurance; Universal Health Insurance Coverage; Vietnam |
| JEL: | I13 I15 I18 O17 |
| Date: | 2025–02–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:dp2026-001 |
| By: | Ogurcova, Ilona |
| Abstract: | The efficiency and quality of healthcare services increasingly depend on the application of advanced governance, risk management, and control models. Internal audit, when conducted in line with international professional standards, has the potential to act not only as a control mechanism but also as a strategic partner contributing to organizational resilience and value creation. In 2024, The Institute of Internal Auditors (IIA) introduced the Global Internal Audit Standards, strengthening the emphasis on professionalism, independence, competence, and strategic alignment of the internal audit function across all sectors, including the public healthcare system. This article examines the challenges of applying these global standards within the Lithuanian healthcare sector, focusing on a specific regulatory requirement that mandates medical or health sciences education for the head of internal audit (the so-called internal medical audit). Through a systematic analysis of the Global Internal Audit Standards, national legislation on public sector internal audit, and sector-specific regulations issued by the Ministry of Health, the study identifies a fundamental normative tension between international audit professionalism and sectoral qualification restrictions. The article argues that internal audit effectiveness derives primarily from professional audit competencies, independence, and risk-based methodologies rather than from subject-specific clinical education. Drawing on an analogy with information technology audits, the analysis demonstrates that complex, knowledge-intensive sectors can be audited effectively through professional internal auditors who engage subject matter experts without compromising objectivity. The findings suggest that the current regulatory model risks professional isolation of healthcare auditors, reduced audit value, weakened organizational resilience, and inefficient allocation of scarce healthcare resources. The article concludes that aligning national healthcare audit regulation with the Global Internal Audit Standards would strengthen governance, enhance risk management, and enable internal audit to function as an integral component of professional management and innovation within healthcare institutions. |
| Date: | 2026–01–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:sav3b_v1 |