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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Lukáš Linek; Michael Škvròák; Michal Šoltés; Vítìzslav Titl |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a new Czech Political Candidate Dataset (CPCD), which compiles comprehensive data on all candidates who have run in any municipal, regional, national, and/or European Parliament election in the Czech Republic since 1993. For each candidate, the CPCD includes their first name, last name, age, gender, place of residence, university degree, party membership, party affiliation, ballot position, and election results for candidates and for parties. We matched candidates over various elections by using algorithms that rely on their personal information. We add information on political donations made to political parties. We source donation information from the Czech Political Donation Dataset (CPDD), our other newly built dataset, in which we compile records of individual donations to 12 leading political parties from official records for the period from 2017 to 2023. CPDD is publicly available along with the CPCD. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp790 |
| By: | Andrej Cupak (National Bank of Slovakia); Pavel Gertler (National Bank of Slovakia); Daniel Hajdiak (National Bank of Slovakia); Jan Klacso (National Bank of Slovakia); Stefan Rychtarik (National Bank of Slovakia) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the findings from a novel survey examining awareness and interest in the future usage of the digital euro in Slovakia. Approximately 34% of the respondents have already heard or read about the digital euro. Around 26% express an intention to use this new digital currency. The likelihood of its usage depends on political preferences, trust in institutions such as the central bank, and preferences for cash payments, in addition to standard socio-economic factors. The survey also reveals that privacy and transaction security are among the top concerns for potential users. The majority of respondents plan to allocate nearly 20% of their net monthly income to digital euro holdings. These insights may provide valuable guidance for shaping the operational framework of the digital euro and informing future communication strategy. |
| JEL: | D14 E42 E51 E52 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svk:wpaper:1111 |
| By: | Marcin Rzeszutek (Faculty of Psychology [Warsaw] - UW - University of Warsaw); Jørgen Vitting Andersen (UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Adam Szyszka; Szymon Talaga (The Robert B. Zajonc Institute for Social Studies - UW - University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | This study aimed to connect the behavioral corporate finance perspective (micro level) with complexity theory via agent-based modeling to analyze the impact of selected psychological factors of chief executive officers (CEOs) on stock market volatility (macro level). Specifically, we wanted to explore whether Polish CEOs' subjective well-being (SWB) influenced their managerial decisions during the COVID-19 pandemic and how it might be related to the volatility of stock prices during this critical period in Poland. Our study was based on a survey of Polish CEOs who managed companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. In particular, 255 CEOs completed the Satisfaction with Life Scale, the Positive and Negative Affect Scale, and a business survey on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on company management. Using the results of this survey, we built an agent-based model to investigate how CEOs' decision-making, stemming from their SWB levels, influences the perception of prices by individual traders and, in turn, how it is translated into aggregate stock market volatility. The results indicate the pathways through which the microscopic-level SWB of CEOs influences market price formation at a macroscopic level. The findings obtained from our model may shed new light on the rational expectations theory applied to stock market volatility during the financial crisis. |
| Keywords: | Subjective well-being, CEO, COVID-19, Stock market volatility, Rational expectations theory, Agent-based model |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-04723512 |
| By: | Marian Vavra (National Bank of Slovakia) |
| Abstract: | Monitoring financial conditions can provide central banks with valuable information about risks to future GDP growth and other macroeconomic variables. In this paper, we follow the recent literature on growth-at-risk and use a linear quantile regression model to exploit the information content of the financial conditions index for tail-risk forecasting of output growth in Slovakia. |
| JEL: | C15 C22 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svk:wpaper:1110 |
| By: | Paweł Strawiński (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Aleksandra Majchrowska (University of Lodz) |
| Abstract: | Research background: The number of research regarding employment effects of minimum wages is enormous. Another problem examined by prior studies is the impact of minimum wage increases on the wages. The evidence shows that minimum wage increases compress the wage distribution. The same literature brings conflicting evidence regarding minimum wage spill-over effects. Purpose of the article: The study analyses the effects of a minimum wage increase on the wage distribution of low- and high-wage sectors and possible spill-overs. The analysed period 2014-2018 is characterized by relatively stable economic conditions, while the minimum wage increased by 25%. Methods: We follow case study method and as example Poland, the EU country with high share of minimum wage workers. We use individual data on wages and worker characteristics from the Structure of Earnings Survey in Poland for 2014–2018. We use reweighting and decompose counterfactual wage distribution. Findings & value added: In low-wage sector, a wage increase in the left tail of the distribution is almost entirely due to the increase in the minimum wage level and spill-over effects are present throughout the distribution. In high-wage sector the role of the minimum wage growth is weaker and also the workers’ characteristics have substantial impact on wages; no spill-over effects of a minimum wage increase are observed. We demonstrate that the conflicting evidence on the effects of minimum wage changes on the wage distribution may occur because the effects differ across the low- and high-paid economic sectors. They depend on sector productivity and openness. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wage, wage distribution, reweighting, low-wage sector, high-wage sector, spill-over effects |
| JEL: | J21 J31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2024-17 |
| By: | Cuong Viet Nguyen; Finn Tarp |
| Abstract: | This study provides an introduction to major discussions and core findings on inequalities in Viet Nam, drawing on a review of recent research, consideration of how inequality is discussed in legal documents, and an analysis of inequality using household survey data from Viet Nam. Inequality is widely mentioned in legal documents. As of May 2024, there are 443 legal documents that mention the term 'gap between the poor and the rich' and 2, 200 legal documents mentioning the term 'social equity'. The term 'gender equality' is mentioned in 6, 744 legal documents. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, Equity, Income distribution, Gini coefficient, Viet Nam |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2024-61 |
| By: | Ludmila Fadejeva (Latvijas Banka); Valentin Jouvanceau (Lietuvos Bankas); Alari Paulus (Eesti Pank) |
| Abstract: | The Baltic states experienced the most substantial consumer price inflation of any of the EU countries shortly after the COVID-19 pandemic. The year-on-year all-items inflation rate averaged 11% from January 2021 to September 2023, peaking at around 22% in late 2022. This study examines how consumer price rigidity in the region during this period of high inflation differed from the preceding period of low inflation in 2019-2020. We use the detailed price records that underlie the official consumer price indexes to assess the frequency and the size margins of price changes. The average frequency of price changes increased by about four percentage points when inflation was high, as an increase of five percentage points in the frequency of price increases combined with a fall of one percentage point in the frequency of price cuts. The average size of price changes increased by 2.8 percentage points, mainly because the share of price increases changed. We further show that structural shocks in energy prices and aggregate demand contributed significantly to fluctuations in the inflation rate through the frequency of price changes during the period of high inflation. All this points to pricing being state-dependent in the Baltic states. |
| Keywords: | consumer price rigidity, price-setting, high inflation, frequency of price changes |
| JEL: | D40 E31 |
| Date: | 2024–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ltv:wpaper:202403 |
| By: | Ludmila Fadejeva (Latvijas Banka); Krista Kalnberzina (Latvijas Banka) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we use boosted forests method to identify the main childhood circumstances associated with inequality of opportunity in Europe. The five main factors that influence income are the education of parents, financial situation of the household, gender, country of birth, and degree of urbanisation. The ranking of those factors differs between countries; however, these top factors are at the highest importance in both 2011 and 2019 at the aggregate level. We show that countries can be grouped into regions by the main factors driving inequality of opportunity - Southern European countries (country of birth), Central European countries (gender and highest education level of a parent), others (highest education level of a parent and financial situation). We also demonstrate that the importance score of various childhood circumstances is associated to the extent to which policies actively tackle these issues at the time of the respondents’ childhood. Furthermore, a correlation between reduction in inequality of opportunity between 2011 and 2019 and improvement in education quality and wider social support coupled with improvement in governance effectiveness between 1995-2000 and 2003-2008 is established. |
| Keywords: | inequality of opportunity, childhood circumstances, inter-generational trans- mission of disadvantages, boosted forest, EU-SILC database |
| JEL: | D31 D63 E24 C39 I14 I24 |
| Date: | 2024–10–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ltv:wpaper:202404 |
| By: | Mr. Serhan Cevik |
| Abstract: | Lithuania’s immediate fiscal challenges are national security and higher costs of borrowing, but fiscal prospects are further exacerbated by long-term pressures stemming from climate change and a shrinking and aging population. The country has experienced a rapidly decreasing population—from 3.7 million in 1991 to 2.8 million in 2023—and its old-age dependency ratio is consequently expected to increase from 33 percent in 2023 to 53.4 percent by 2050. The resulting long-term spending pressures are projected to amount to as much as 11.2 percent of GDP, which is about 30 percent of the current level of spending. Debt sustainability concerns would not allow financing additional spending with more debt. Hence, a comprehensive strategy will help address these long-term fiscal challenges, including tax policy changes to raise additional revenue while primarily reducing expenditure needs through pension and healthcare reforms. |
| Keywords: | Military spending; interest rates; climate change; demographics; pension; healthcare; tax policy; fiscal sustainability; Lithuania |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/201 |