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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Pierre-Louis Vézina; Cevat Giray Aksoy; Piotr Lewandowski |
| Abstract: | We examine business creation by Ukrainian refugees in Poland following the Russian invasion. We find that Ukrainians started 38, 833 firms in 2022–23, accounting for 7% of all registrations. Our survey shows that 58% of post-invasion Ukrainian founders are refugees, and cross-county regressions show that a 10% increase in adult male Ukrainian refugees is associated with a 2.7% increase in Ukrainian firm registrations. We then show that new Ukrainian businesses stimulate Polish entrepreneurship. Using a shift-share strategy based on refugee shocks and Ukrainians’ comparative advantage, we find that a 10% increase in Ukrainian registrations led to 2.3% more Polish firms. |
| Keywords: | migration, firms, entrepreneurship, multiplier |
| JEL: | F22 L26 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:wpaper:wp072025 |
| By: | Jaan Masso; Maja Breznik; Liis Roosaar; Tibor T. Meszmann |
| Abstract: | The growth of immigrant labour in Central and Eastern Europe has put pressure on labour market institutions and actors shaping industrial relations. Estonia, Slovakia, and Slovenia – countries representing different models of capitalism – have adopted different regulatory strategies to address the growing need for temporary migrant labour. In some sectors, the high presence of migrant workers on temporary contracts puts pressure on wages and working conditions, creating conditions for sectoral and company-based migrant labour regimes (MLR). We investigate the roles of employers and trade unions in Estonia, Slovakia, and Slovenia in addressing the issues arising from the temporary employment of migrant workers. While everywhere the driving force behind the increased reliance on migrant labour has been some employers’ economic need to fill low-paid jobs, countries differ in terms of union action and new forms of employee representation. We show that trade unions and employer organisations are involved to varying degrees in the national regulatory processes concerning changes to the labour market access of TCNs. However, their influence on sectoral or company-level migrant worker employment practices is low to non-existent. While these sector- and company-based MLRs are growing in significance, trade unions are caught in a vicious cycle of deregulation and reregulation. |
| Keywords: | migrant labour regime, temporary migrant labour, regulation of migration, industrial relations, Central and Eastern Europe |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtk:febawb:151 |
| By: | Tamar Taralashvili (Department of Law, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Italy); Alessandro Belmonte (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Marche Polytechnic University, Italy.); Desiree Teobaldelli (Department of Law, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Italy) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of geopolitical shocks on public trust in international institutions, using the 2014 conflict in Ukraine as a quasi-natural experiment. Drawing on individual-level survey data from the Caucasus Barometer covering the period 2009-2019, we assess changes in trust in the European Union and the United Nations, as well as support for NATO membership, before and after the conflict among respondents in Georgia and Armenia. Although neither country was directly involved in the conflict, the crisis generated substantial geopolitical spillover throughout the South Caucasus. Employing a Difference-in-Differences design, we find a significant decline in trust toward these organizations in Georgia after 2014, a country characterized by a pro-Western foreign policy orientation and unresolved tensions with Russia, and therefore more exposed to the conflict's geopolitical consequences. In contrast, Armenia-more closely aligned with Russia and less directly affected-serves as a credible control case. We further examine how individual-level characteristics condition these effects. Our results show that individuals with a pro-Western identity, proxied by support for English as a mandatory school language, experienced smaller declines or even increases in institutional trust. Conversely, respondents with pro-Russian orientations exhibited significantly larger decreases in confidence. Overall, these findings highlight the polarizing effects of external geopolitical shocks and underscore the importance of cultural and political identity in shaping public attitudes toward international institutions in small states bordering Russia. |
| Keywords: | External threats, trust, international organizations, South Caucasus. |
| JEL: | D7 F52 F53 O19 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wpaper:502 |
| By: | Michał Łesyk (Narodowy Bank Polski); Grzegorz Wesołowski (Narodowy Bank Polski) |
| Abstract: | We examine the demand for retail treasury bonds and time deposits in Poland, a typical small open economy with an independent monetary policy. To this end we first employ instrumental variable, OLS and two GMM regressions based on asset demand functions derived from the microfounded household utility maximization model. We find that bonds and deposits are imperfect substitutes with the elasticity of substitution somewhat higher than the US counterpart. Next, we construct an asset aggregate consisting of bonds and deposits and find that it depends negatively on interest rate in Poland consistent with theoretical predictions with the price elasticity being close to the one estimated for the United States. Our findings suggest an effective monetary policy transmission to household assets as well as a need for active bond issuance policy of the government in countries like Poland. |
| Keywords: | demand for deposits and government bonds, substitutability between bonds and deposits |
| JEL: | E43 G11 G23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:378 |
| By: | Agata Gałkiewicz (University of Potsdam, IAB, CEPA) |
| Abstract: | Random disturbances such as air pollution may affect cognitive performance, which, particularly in high-stakes settings, may have severe consequences for an individual’s productivity and well-being. This paper examines the short-term effects of air pollution on school leaving exam results in Poland. I exploit random variation in air pollution between the days on which exams are held across three consecutive school years. I aim to capture this random variation by including school and time fixed effects. The school-level panel data is drawn from a governmental program where air pollution is continuously measured in the schoolyard. This localized hourly air pollution measure is a unique feature of my study, which increases the precision of the estimated effects. In addition, using distant and aggregated air pollution measures allows me for the comparison of the estimates in space and time. The findings suggest that a one standard deviation increase in the concentration of particulate matter PM2.5 and PM10 decreases students’ exam scores by around 0.07–0.08 standard deviations. The magnitude and significance of these results depend on the location and timing of the air pollution readings, indicating the importance of the localized air pollution measure and the distinction between contemporaneous and lingering effects. Further, air pollution effects gradually increase in line with the quantiles of the exam score distribution, suggesting that high-ability students are more affected by the random disturbances caused by air pollution. |
| Keywords: | air pollution, particulate matter, education, cognitive performance, test scores, Poland |
| JEL: | I20 I21 I24 Q53 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pot:cepadp:96 |
| By: | Viktor Yarovyi |
| Abstract: | This research investigates the impact of tax policy changes on Ukraine's rural economy and local communities during the ongoing war. The study analyses how these reforms balance the need for revenue mobilization with the support of the agricultural sector. A mixed-methods approach combines quantitative fiscal data with qualitative insights from interviews with small-scale farmers. The findings reveal that, while wartime taxation has increased state revenue, its effects have been uneven and often disproportionate. |
| Keywords: | Taxation, War, Smallholder farmers, Local communities, Land tenure, Ukraine |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-105 |
| By: | Mr. Tigran Poghosyan; Davaasukh Damdinjav; Dulamzaya Batjargal; Tserendavaa Tsend-Ayush; Bat-Orgil Bat-Erdene; Gerelmaa Baatarchuluun |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of credit supply shocks in Mongolia. Using bank credit surveys and a newly constructed indicator of changes in lending standards, adjusted for macroeconomic and bank-specific factors influencing credit demand, we identify the impact of credit supply disruptions on key macroeconomic variables. Our findings reveal that one standard deviation shock to credit supply leads to an initial reduction in total lending growth, output growth, and inflation. Decomposing the shocks into credit supply components we find that shocks to enterprise and household lending also have similar effects on respective lending growth rates. However, household credit supply shocks have a stronger impact on output growth, while enterprise credit supply shocks have a stronger impact on inflation. Variance decomposition analysis suggests that adjusted credit supply shocks purged from demand fluctuations hold significant power in explaining the variability of macroeconomic variables. Overall, our results confirm the importance of credit supply shocks for macroeconomic variables in Mongolia. |
| Keywords: | Bank lending standards; credit supply shocks; Mongolia |
| Date: | 2025–12–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/262 |
| By: | Bachev, Hrabrin |
| Abstract: | The term governance is widely used in a number of scientific disciplines, as well as by international, state, business, non-governmental, etc. organizations. The interdisciplinary New Institutional Economics has contributed greatly to the modern understanding of the nature and factors of governance in general, and of governance in individual areas of social activity and levels of analysis – from the governance of individual transactions to the governance of global affairs. Almost ninety years after the “discovery” of transaction costs by Coase (1937) and the “reasons” for the existence of economic organizations of different types, today this “new” methodology is an integral part of the general (mainstream) economic theory and analysis. Of course, Williamson (1985) - in operationalizing this concept, and North (1991) - in revealing the role of institutions in economic development, significantly contributed to the development of the New Institutional Economics. Many other economists have also made a great contribution to the development of this new "branch" of economic science, which has been well summarized by Furubotn and Richter (2005) and Ménard and Shirley (2022). The author of this study was among the first to adapt the achievements of the New Institutional Economics in the analysis of agrarian governance and institutional modernization in Bulgaria (Bachev, 1996) and elsewhere (Bachev, 1995). Over the past three decades, Bulgarian economists have made numerous publications with analyses of the forms, factors, effectiveness and evolution of the governance of the main types of agrarian transactions, farmer organizations, and levels of governance during the period of transformation, pre-accession and full membership of the country in the European Union (https://agro-governance.alle.bg/#). Here we would like to underline our close cooperation with the leading scholars in the institutional analysis of agrarian contracts and organizations from the University of Missouri in the USA, which began in 1992 and has been deepening to the present day. We are especially grateful to Michael Cook and Michael Sykuta for their training, inspiration, continuous support and long-term cooperation. The paper presents the results of current research in the field of agrarian governance in Bulgaria. Without claiming to be comprehensive, it provides an idea of the Bulgarian experience in agrarian governance, and of the modest Bulgarian contribution to the implementation of the institutional analysis of the modes and mechanisms of agrarian governance. First, a holistic approach to understanding and analysing agrarian governance is presented. Then, the economic role of agrarian contracts is revealed, their types are classified, and an approach to assessing their effectiveness is presented. This is followed by an assessment of the quality of the system of agrarian governance in Bulgaria at the present stage of development. Then, an analysis of the governance and contractual structures of major functional areas of Bulgarian farms is made. Then, the forms, factors and effectiveness of land and labour supplies in Bulgarian farms are identified. The identification of modes, factors and efficiency of the provision of ecosystem services by the Bulgarian farms follows. After that, the levels and evolution of governance efficiency of Bulgarian farms are evaluated. Then, a holistic assessment of the comparative and absolute competitiveness of Bulgarian farms is made. Finally, the state, evolution, efficiency and factors of governance of agricultural inclusion in sustainable wastewater management in Bulgaria are presented. |
| Keywords: | governance, modes, mechanisms, agriculture, transaction costs, Bulgaria |
| JEL: | K40 Q12 Q13 Q15 Q18 Q5 |
| Date: | 2025–12–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127439 |
| By: | Anahit Gasparyan (Central Bank of Armenia); Aleksandr Shirkhanyan (Central Bank of Armenia) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates structural demand for business loans and household deposits in a small, highly dollarized banking system. Using quarterly bank-level data from Armenia over 2012–2024, we estimate discrete-choice demand models, with a focus on the Random Coefficient Logit specification, to recover product-level own- and cross-price elasticities. These elasticities provide behavioral measures of competition, capturing how borrowers and depositors substitute across banks, currencies, and maturities over time. The results reveal substantial heterogeneity and directional asymmetry in substitution patterns, with systematically stronger price responsiveness in AMD-denominated products: while substitution from AMD to USD lending declines steadily, substitution toward AMD remains comparatively more responsive, particularly during periods of macro-financial stress. Regulatory-driven consolidation in 2015–2016 is associated with a marked reduction in price sensitivity across both loan and deposit markets. Deposit markets are less price-elastic overall, but competitive conditions vary systematically by currency and demographic characteristics, with older and male depositors exhibiting stronger preferences for USD-denominated savings. |
| Keywords: | Banking competition; Demand elasticities; Random coefficient logit; Dollarization; Loan and deposit markets |
| JEL: | G21 L11 D12 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ara:wpaper:wp-2025-07 |
| By: | Margaryan, Tamar; Yedigaryan, Knarik |
| Abstract: | Armenia's information-communication-technology (ICT) exports climbed to US $1.1 billion in 2023, a 43 percent year-on-year surge that places the small Caucasus republic among the world's ten fastest-growing tech exporters. This paper asks how Armenia's digital capacities can be operationalised in the European Union's Global Gateway to deliver secure, sustainable, and inclusive connectivity between Europe and the Global South. We combine gravity-model trade simulations, layer-three latency mapping, venture-capital deal analytics, and 27 expert interviews to identify three high-impact leverage points: Trusted Data Corridors that scale the 2024 EU4Digital cross-border e-ID pilot; Dual-use SpaceTech Hubs building on Armenia's first national satellite and Starlink rollout; Diaspora-backed Innovation Funds such as Formula VC II (US $30 million, 35-40 deals). A risk-adjusted Monte-Carlo model suggests that a €180 million Armenian Digital Gateway Facility (ADGF) could unlock €1.2 billion in additional trade and 9 000 ICT jobs by 2030 while cutting data-transit latency to Frankfurt by 32 ms (73 Ç 41 ms). Comparative analysis with Estonia's e-Residency programme demonstrates the viability of small-state digital-hub strategies. A five-year implementation road-map and policy recommendations on cyber-resilience, skills mobility, and ESG governance offer a replicable template for other middle-income innovation hubs. |
| Keywords: | digital connectivity, Global Gateway, Armenia, EU-Global-South relations, trusted data corridors, ICT exports |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:333908 |
| By: | Nenovsky, Nikolay; Marinova, Tsvetelina |
| Abstract: | We focus on two of the leading representatives of the Bulgarian intelligentsia during the late Ottoman Empire, Ivan Bogorov and Georgi Sava Rakovski, who engaged in discussions on economic issues. Each of them believed that the collective national and economic goal of the Bulgarians could be solved within the framework of a certain economic worldview, which seems eclectic and contradictory to the contemporary economist, but consistent and logical when taking into account the era in which the two authors lived and wrote. |
| Keywords: | economic modernization, Ottoman Empire, bulgarian economic thought, Bulgaria, Ivan Bogorov, Georgi Sava Rakovski |
| JEL: | B1 B10 B31 N00 N93 |
| Date: | 2025–12–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127299 |
| By: | Maciej Albinowski; Piotr Lewandowski; Karol Madoñ; Mateusz Smoter |
| Abstract: | The report analyses patterns of nicotine product consumption in Poland and the potential effects of regulatory interventions. The survey (June 2025, over 4, 500 respondents aged 18–64) shows that traditional cigarettes remain the dominant product, although their popularity and frequency of use are lower in younger age groups. While most traditional cigarette users do not combine them with other products, consumers of alternative products typically use more than one nicotine product. Perceived harmfulness is low, especially for alternative products: only 38% of daily e-cigarette users consider them very harmful, and among heated tobacco users this figure is just 30%. Demand is price sensitive, with multiproduct users responding more strongly, though they are less likely to quit nicotine altogether. Price increases for e-cigarettes introduced in 2025 may reduce the number of primary e-cigarette users by 659 thousand (62%), of whom 178 thousand would quit nicotine. To substantially reduce the number of nicotine consumers, price increases for traditional cigarettes are also necessary. |
| Keywords: | Nicotine consumption, excise tax |
| JEL: | I18 D12 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:report:rr012025 |
| By: | Bui Van, Vien; Vo Huu, Khanh; Tran The, Tuan |
| Abstract: | Export performance has become increasingly important for Vietnamese manufacturing SMEs as they face digital transformation and stronger global competition. This study investigates how resource-based determinants affect the export performance of Vietnamese manufacturing SMEs, with absorptive capacity (mediation) and international competition (moderation). Cross-sectional survey data from 420 manufacturing SMEs in Vietnam, collected during February–August 2025 and completed by authorized firm representatives (owners/ directors/ senior managers). Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (SmartPLS 4.1) with 5, 000 bootstraps was employed. Digital transformation (β = 0.304, p |
| Keywords: | exports; SMEs; RBV; absorptive capacity; competition; digital transformation |
| JEL: | F14 L25 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–12–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127537 |
| By: | Krištofóry, Tomáš |
| Abstract: | Do you want to know more about an economist who before Mises conceived of economics as a science of human action? Someone who at the same time was an ordoliberal sooner than Eucken? Someone who added politics to his many talents and who saved Czechoslovakia from hyperinflation then raging in Mises' Vienna, as well as in Budapest, Berlin and other major European cities? A Neoliberal deprived of his liberties by the Nazis and communists alike? Someone who then didn't give in to the dictatorship but fought for democracy with his mighty pen? Then feel free to read my publication titled Meet Karel Engliš (1880-1961), A Prominent Czech Economist, Logician and Scholar. Introduction and his Bibliography in Foreign Languages. The publication contains an international bibliography of the works of Karel Engliš, founder of Masaryk University, a prominent Czech economist whose work was also appreciated by representatives of the Austrian school such as L. von Mises, F. A. von Hayek and I. M. Kirzner. Karel Engliš was one of the most prominent figures in European economics in the interwar period, but after 1948 the communist regime banned his publishing, lecturing and foreign activities, and his books were withdrawn from library collections. An overview of his works in English, German, French and other languages, supplemented by links to online resources and secondary literature, provides a valuable basis for a new research of his work and significance. The aim of the publication is to renew international awareness of Engliš's teleological economics and to facilitate further research into his legacy. |
| Keywords: | Karel Engliš, teleology, praxeology, ordoliberalism, Czechoslovakia, Central Europe, Mises, Eucken, history of economics, Austrian school, Iron Curtain |
| JEL: | A31 B13 B25 B31 B41 P50 |
| Date: | 2025–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126795 |
| By: | Gondauri, Davit |
| Abstract: | Situated on the Eurasian transit axis, the Georgian railway corridor is a strategic artery for freight, capital, and innovation. This paper develops an integrated, model-driven assessment of its impact on economic development by combining: (1) Navier-Stokes equations adapted to economics to simulate operational flows and systemic risk; (2) a multidimensional Ricci Flow model to track inequality dynamics and structural transformation; and (3) an Economic Value Added (EVA) framework to evaluate long-term value creation and capital allocation. Using 2022-2024 data, we find that infrastructure modernization and efficiency gains increase liquidity velocity and lower systemic risk in the Navier-Stokes module. Stress tests reveal high sensitivity to external shocks, underscoring the need for dynamic operational and policy optimization. The Ricci Flow analysis maps how freight turnover, income growth, energy efficiency, and innovation shape inequality trajectories: parameters with positive curvature are associated with inclusive growth and sustainability, whereas negative curvature flags zones of persistent risk. EVA matrix modeling shows that higher growth and freight volumes lift GDP, added value, and competitiveness; importantly, a positive EVA margin emerges when annual growth reaches at least 3%. The study offers a transferable methodology for evaluating complex infrastructure under uncertainty and regional competition. Policy recommendations include institutionalizing real-time monitoring and stress testing, prioritizing inclusive-growth parameters, and aligning investment optimization with the integrated modeling stack to support sustainable, corridor-led development. |
| Keywords: | Georgian Railway Corridor, Navier-Stokes Equations, Ricci Flow, Economic Value Added (EVA), Multilayer Analysis, Curvature Analysis, Stress Testing, Mathematical Economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:333914 |