|
on Transition Economics |
| By: | Alessandra Faggian (Gran Sasso Science Institute); Alessandra Michelangeli (University of Milan-Bicocca); Kateryna Tkach (Gran Sasso Science Institute) |
| Abstract: | The full-scale invasion of Ukraine has induced a large influx of refugees from Ukraine to the European Union (EU), becoming the largest humanitarian crisis in Europe since the World War II. Despite a growing interest in the topic, little is known about Ukrainian refugees’ skills and their economic integration in the hosting countries. This paper provides novel evidence on this topic by analysing employment patterns and skills of displaced Ukrainians in Italy. Using primary data, our results show that previous employment and proficiency in Italian are essential for refugees’ current employment status. Despite their high educational attainment, professional downgrading seems to be widespread as refugees with tertiary education perceive themselves as overqualified for their jobs. Moreover, regional context, namely the presence of Ukrainian immigrant community, also plays a role in refugees’ employment outcomes and job-related perceptions. Our findings underscore the importance of skill recognition and language training in facilitating economic integration of refugees. |
| Keywords: | forced migration; labour market inclusion; skill profiles; human capital; displaced persons |
| JEL: | F22 J61 R23 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp77 |
| By: | Gilles Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | Russia's response to sweeping Western sanctions since the invasion of Ukraine illustrates how logistical constraints can be transformed into instruments of geopolitical power. Sanctions have reshaped the corridors, hubs, and alternative networks mobilized by Moscow to maintain the continuity of strategic flows despite increasing isolation. Routes through Central Asia, expanding hubs in Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, as well as the Arctic Northern Sea Route, operate as vectors of State resilience, enabling the circumvention of external pressure while reinforcing territorial and political ambitions. In parallel, gray markets, informal intermediaries, and an expanding "shadow fleet" sustain energy exports and industrial activity, yet generate structural vulnerabilities linked to opacity, safety risks, and dependence on opportunistic actors. This dynamic raises a core research question: how do Western sanctions reconfigure Russia's logistics architecture, and to what extent do adaptive mechanisms-across formal, informal, and illicit channels-produce both resilience and systemic fragility within global supply chains? The article contends that Russia's adjustments do not merely mitigate the effects of sanctions but actively reshape global trade patterns. By combining established corridors with shadow networks, Moscow secures short-term autonomy while accumulating long-term risks, demonstrating that logistics has become a central arena of contemporary geopolitical competition. |
| Keywords: | geopolitics, gray markets, logistics, resilience, Russia, sanctions, shadow fleet, supply chains |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05511589 |
| By: | Filip Premik (Monash University); Dan Yu (University of Alberta) |
| Abstract: | We study how heterogeneity in capital inputs affects firm performance. Drawing on detailed data on municipal bus fleets in Poland, we exploit plausibly exogenous variation generated by public procurement and nationality coordinated sales behaviour of bus manufactures to identify the casual effects of variety fleet composition across brands and other technical dimensions. More heterogeneous fleets exhibit lower vehicle utilization and, for a fixed emphasize that the production capacity of capital depends on its internal structure, not only on its aggregate quantity or value. |
| Keywords: | Heterogeneous capital, capital utilization, productivity, fleet compositon, organization of production |
| JEL: | D24 L23 L62 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2026-02 |
| By: | Sofiana Sinani |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether a mother's extended provision of full-time childcare shapes her children's preferences for occupation choices. I analyze a natural experiment in the Czech Republic that extended parental allowances by one year. This induced many mothers to remain out of the workplace and caused them to face a higher likelihood of long-term employment. This shift reinforced a more traditional, mother-as-homemaker dynamic within households. Using a regression discontinuity design, I measure their children's later occupational preferences via their university applications. I find that boys who were exposed to the reform during early childhood were 20% less likely to apply to stereotypically feminine fields in adulthood, with no corresponding effect observed for girls. I examine potential channels and find no evidence that the reform altered children's academic ability (proxied by high school track) or their preferences for research- and mathematicsoriented tracks. The results are therefore consistent with the interpretation that longer exposure to a stay-at-home mother, which may accentuate traditional gender roles, can reduce boys openness to nurturing- and care-oriented careers. This study provides the first causal evidence that the duration of maternal care can influence the gender-specific occupational choices. |
| Keywords: | maternal care, field-of-study choice, occupation, RDD |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp812 |
| By: | Trebesch, Christoph; Nishikawa, Taro |
| Abstract: | · This brief provides a big-picture overview of support for Ukraine after four years of war. The key finding from 2025 is that Europe has almost offset the collapse in US support. · US aid fell by 99 percent. At the same time, Europe sharply increased its aid allocations, by 59 percent for financial and humanitarian aid and by 67 percent for military aid compared to the 2022-24 average. As a result, total aid in 2025 remained close to previous years. · Within Europe, financial and humanitarian aid is now dominated by EU institutions, as EU loans and grants account for 89 percent of these flows in 2025. Military aid is ever more concentrated on a few countries. Northern and Western Europe accounted for about 95 percent, in particular Scandinavia, Germany, the United Kingdom. In contrast, the military aid from Southern and Eastern Europe continued to fall. · To help replace US support, NATO launched the PURL initiative, through which donors purchased US weapons for Ukraine worth EUR 3.7 billion in 2025, including HIMARS and Patriot systems. Donors also increasingly procured weapons directly from Ukraine's defense industry. The share of procurement in Ukraine reached 22 percent in late 2025. |
| Abstract: | · Diese Kurzanalyse liefert einen Überblick zur Ukraine-Hilfe nach vier Jahren Krieg. Eine zentrale Erkenntnis ist, dass Europa das Einfrieren der US-Hilfen fast ausgeglichen hat. · Die US-Unterstützung brach 2025 um 99 Prozent ein. Gleichzeitig erhöhte Europa seine Hilfszuweisungen deutlich, um 59 Prozent bei finanzieller und humanitärer Hilfe und um 67 Prozent bei militärischer Unterstützung. Das Gesamtvolumen der Hilfe blieb 2025 damit nahe am Niveau der Vorjahre. · Die finanzielle und humanitäre Hilfe aus Europa wird inzwischen überwiegend über EU-Institutionen geleistet. 90 Prozent der Finanzhilfe für die Ukraine kamen 2025 über EU-Kredite und Zuschüsse. Die militärische Hilfe ist dagegen immer stärker konzentriert. Nord- und Westeuropa trugen etwa 95 Prozent bei, insbesondere aus Skandinavien, Deutschland und dem Vereinigten Königreich. Die Zuweisungen aus Süd- und Osteuropa sanken weiter. · Zur Kompensation der US-Waffenhilfe startete die NATO die PURL-Initiative, über die 2025 US-Waffen im Wert von 3, 7 Mrd. Euro für die Ukraine gekauft wurden, z.B. HIMARS- und Patriot-Systeme. Zugleich gewann die Beschaffung der Geberländer über die ukrainische Verteidigungsindustrie an Bedeutung. Der Anteil wuchs bis Ende 2025 auf 22 Prozent. |
| Keywords: | International Aid, Defense Industry, Geoeconomics, Ukraine, Internationale Hilfe, Verteidigungsindustrie, Geoökonomie, Ukraine |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:336813 |
| By: | Van Le Thy Ha |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the persistent effects of Vietnam War (1955–1975) bombing on occupations and incomes of different cohorts in 2018. To do this, I link the US National Archives bombing data to a Vietnamese representative household survey. I employ an instrumental variable approach that leverages rounding thresholds used to target villagelevel airstrikes. The results show that bombing increases the share of post-war young cohorts working in low-skilled occupations by 10 percentage points and reduces their income by over 50% in 2018. The effects are even more pronounced for older cohorts who were directly exposed to the war. I estimate that heavily bombed villages lag approximately 1.3 to 1.6 generations behind in occupational transformation. My analysis indicates that educational accessibility and wartime village governance partially mediate these effects. This paper provides the first evidence that bombing distorts occupational and income structures for the post-war generation, causing bombed villages to lag in structural transformation. |
| Keywords: | bombing, cohorts, income, occupation, Vietnam War |
| JEL: | F51 J62 N45 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp813 |
| By: | Bobojanov, Shakhrukh; Ilyosov, Imron |
| Abstract: | This study examines the determinants of access to bank financing for enterprises in Uzbekistan, addressing both the decision to apply for credit and the probability of approval conditional on applying. Using World Bank Enterprise Survey data (n=1, 008 enterprises), we employ a twostage analytical framework: binary logit regression models examine factors associated with having an existing loan, and Heckman probit selection models jointly estimate the loan application decision and approval probability, accounting for potential selection bias. The study reveals severe credit rationing in Uzbekistan, with only 13.3% of enterprises holding bank loans and 10.1% applying for new credit. The most striking finding is the dominant effect of existing banking relationships: enterprises with current loans achieve 87.0% approval rates compared to 41.7% for first-time applicants. The Heckman outcome equation confirms this relationship banking effect, representing approximately 30-35 percentage point higher approval probability. Medium-sized enterprises enjoy substantial advantages in both application propensity and approval probability. Export activity and checking account ownership significantly enhance credit access. Contrary to international evidence, female-managed enterprises show positive approval coefficients, though statistical significance is marginal. The highly significant selection parameter confirms substantial selection bias, validating the Heckman approach. |
| Keywords: | SME financing, Credit access, Heckman selection model, Relationship banking, financial inclusion, Transition economies, Uzbekistan |
| JEL: | G21 G32 O16 P34 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127588 |
| By: | Erwan Gautier (Banque de France; Universite Paris-Dauphine); Cristina Conflitti (Banca d'Italia); Daniel Enderle (Oesterreichische Nationalbank); Ludmila Fadejeva (Latvijas Banka); Alex Grimaud (Oesterreichische Nationalbank; TU Wien); Eduardo Gutierrez (Banco de Espana); Valentin Jouvanceau (ECB; Lietuvos Bankas); Jan-Oliver Menz (Deutsche Bundesbank); Alari Paulus (Eesti Pank); Pavlos Petroulas (Bank of Greece); Pau Roldan-Blanco (Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona; Barcelona School of Economics); Elisabeth Wieland (ECB; Deutsche Bundesbank) |
| Abstract: | We use CPI micro data for nine euro area countries to document new evidence on consumer price stickiness in the euro area during the 2021-2024 inflation cycle. In 2022, the monthly frequency of price changes reached 12%, compared with an average of 8% over 2010-2019, roughly a fourpercentage-point increase; it then fell quickly in 2023 and more slowly in 2024, ending close to its pre-pandemic level. The decline in the frequency of price changes was faster for food and nonenergy industrial goods (NEIG) than for services, where frequencies remained elevated in 2024. The overall frequency rose mainly because there were more price increases, while the magnitude of the average size of the price increases or decreases changed only marginally during the surge. Products with a larger imported-energy cost share responded more strongly, and hazard-rate evidence shows that the probability of price adjustments increases with the gap between actual and optimal prices, consistent with state-dependent pricing and a steepening of the Phillips curve. To illustrate the implications of this state dependence, a macro model suggests that peak inflation would have been almost 1 percentage point lower if the frequency had not responded to the inflation surge. |
| Keywords: | price rigidity, euro area, inflation surge, micro price data |
| JEL: | E31 E52 F33 L11 |
| Date: | 2026–02–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ltv:wpaper:202601 |
| By: | Isabella Damiani (LIMEEP – PS - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire sur les Mutations des Espaces Économiques et Politiques – Paris Saclay - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - Université Paris-Saclay); Marie Hiliquin (TVES - Territoires, Villes, Environnement & Société - ULR 4477 - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille) |
| Abstract: | This article examines the role of Khorgos, a special economic zone located on the border between China and Kazakhstan, within the framework of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In less than a decade, Khorgos has become a strategic hub for rail freight between China and Europe, increasing from 25 trains in 2013 to more than 8, 700 in 2024, reflecting China's efforts to strengthen overland connectivity and establish alternative corridors to maritime trade. This paper, drawing on satellite data and spatial analysis through remote sensing, focuses on three main dimensions. First, it analyses the peripheral urbanisation of the city of Khorgos, which is embedded in China's territorial strategies to connect the western region to the rest of the country through infrastructure development, securitisation, and territorial control. Second, it situates Khorgos within a regional scale, namely the Khorgos-Yining-Qingshuihe economic complex. This analysis highlights the functional division of employment between Yining, the true administrative centre, Qingshuihe as the production core, and Khorgos, which remains primarily a transit point for Chinese exports, thereby illustrating an asymmetry in cross-border exchanges with Kazakhstan. Third, the paper examines territorial production and environmental differentiation. Remote sensing analyses reveal pronounced asymmetries in land use and ecological transformations between the Chinese and Kazakh sides of the border: China has developed a diversified and tightly regulated territorial model, combining urban and agricultural infrastructures, whereas the Kazakh side remains less structured and less developed. Chinese ecological initiatives, such as photovoltaic projects and urban greening policies, further reinforce cross-border territorial asymmetries and raise critical questions about the actual impacts of the BRI and the associated "win-win" cooperation rhetoric. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Urban planing, Borders, Kazakhstan, China, Belt Road Initiative, Khorgos |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05486194 |
| By: | Thomas Dohmen; Frauke Meyer; Gari Walkowitz |
| Abstract: | This paper provides clear evidence that concerns for basic needs satisfaction (BNS) represent a distinct distributional motive. Using a unified theoretical and experimental framework across five dictator-game experiments in Germany and Georgia (N=446), we disentangle BNS from motives such as maximin, selfishness, efficiency, generosity, and envy. A substantial share of participants displayed BNS-driven choices and were willing to forgo income and efficiency to satisfy others’ basic needs. BNS remained robust across contexts, incentive schemes, and countries, and increased when needs satisfaction had strategic relevance. The results highlight the importance of BNS for understanding distributional preferences and policy design. |
| Keywords: | Basic Needs, Redistribution, Distributional Motives, Maximin, Public Policy, Field Experiment, Laboratory Experiment |
| JEL: | D31 D63 H23 C93 C91 D01 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_729 |