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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Głodek Paweł; Dadas Grzegorz; Compano Ramon (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | This report proposes a consistent and robust methodology for identifying and comparing university spin-offs across European countries. The conceptual framework relies on observable ownership links, notably equity-based, between universities and spin-offs. The methodology was tested in Poland, Czechia, and Slovakia, countries with diverse legal and organisational contexts. The methodology has proven to compare university spin-off across the European Union irrespective of the national laws for academia to spin-off their ventures. A comparison the three case studies reveal that the number of spinoffs created is lower than expected with regard to the country’s R&D capacity and scientific output, manifesting a considerable untaped potential for innovative startups in Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc147605 |
| By: | Olivier De Jonghe (European Central Bank; National Bank of Belgium); KonstantÄ«ns Beņkovskis (Latvijas Banka); Karolis Bielskis (Lietuvos Bankas); Diana Bonfim (Banco de Portugal; Católica Lisbon); Margherita Bottero (Banca d’Italia); Tamás Briglevics (Central Bank of Hungary); Martin Cesnak (National Bank of Slovakia); Mantas Dirma (Lietuvos Bankas); Marina Emiris (National Bank of Belgium); Pálma Filep-Mosberger (Central Bank of Hungary); Valentin Jouvanceau (Lietuvos Bankas); Nicholas Kaiser (Central Bank of Ireland); Dmitry Khametshin (Banco de España); Tibor Lalinsky (National Bank of Slovakia); Viola M. Grolmusz (Central Bank of Hungary); Laura Moretti (Central Bank of Ireland); ArtÅ«rs JÄ nis Å…ikitins (Latvijas Banka); Angelo Nunnari (Banca d’Italia); Maria Rodriguez-Moreno (Banco de España); Elitsa Stefanova (European Central Bank); Lajos Tamás Szabó (Central Bank of Hungary); KÄ rlis Vilerts (Latvijas Banka); Sujiao Emma Zhao (Banco de Portugal) |
| Abstract: | We study heterogeneity in households’ credit across nine European countries (Belgium, Spain, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, and Slovakia) during 2022-2024 using granular credit register data. We first document substantial between- and within-country variation in mortgage and consumer lending by borrower age, loan maturity, and interest rate fixation. We then quantify the pass-through of the ECB’s recent tightening cycle to household borrowing costs and assess its heterogeneous impact across households. Pass-through is nearly complete for mortgages (around 0.9) but considerably weaker for consumer credit (around 0.4). While mortgage pass-through is relatively homogeneous across countries, consumer credit shows pronounced cross-country differences that cannot be explained by borrower or loan characteristics. Younger households face stronger mortgage pass-through but weaker consumer credit pass-through relative to older borrowers, and longer maturities are associated with stronger pass-through in both credit markets. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy transmission; household borrowing; credit registers; interest rate pass-through; cross-country heterogeneity |
| JEL: | E52 G21 D14 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2026/1 |
| By: | Csaba G. Tóth (ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies); Emese Kovács (Corvinus University of Budapest) |
| Abstract: | Population ageing is one of the most pressing demographic challenges, yet its main drivers remain contested. A key limitation of existing research is that the initial age structure is rarely treated as a separate driver, despite its influence on the pace and pattern of ageing. This study adapts a decomposition method based on the stationary population model to identify the separate contributions of fertility, mortality, net migration, and the initial age structure to changes in mean age. We apply this framework to Central and Eastern Europe, a region that has lost its earlier advantage of having a relatively young age structure compared with the rest of Europe. The results show that below-replacement fertility accounted for about half of the increase in mean age between 1990 and 2025. One of our main findings is that the contribution of the initial age structure exceeded the combined effect of mortality improvement and net migration. However, the latter showed substantial country-level variation. It also revealed the double burden of outmigration, as in countries affected by severe net outflows, it reduces population size while also accelerating ageing. The findings further indicate that the initial age structure was the main channel through which convergence in population ageing emerged in the region. Finally, cluster analysis identifies distinct groups of countries according to similarities in the demographic forces shaping their ageing processes. |
| Keywords: | population ageing; mean age; fertility; mortality; net migration; initial age structure; decomposition; Central and Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | J11 J13 J18 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2613 |
| By: | Vasilev, Aleksandar |
| Abstract: | Housing stock, and the accumulation of utility-enhancing housing capital are introduced as an additional mechanism into a real-business-cycle setup augmented with a detailed government sector. The model is calibrated to Bulgarian data for the period following the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999-2024). The quantitative importance of the presence of housing capital accumulation is investigated for the propagation of cyclical fluctuations in Bulgaria. In particular, allowing for housing considerations in the setup improves the model fit vis-a-vis data by increasing the variability of employment and decreasing the variability of consumption and investment. However, those improvements are at the cost of decreasing the volatility of wages. The model severely over-predicts variability of housing investment, and wrongly concludes that it is counter-cyclical. Still, the model with housing is a clear improvement relative to the standard RBC setup. |
| Keywords: | housing, business cycles |
| JEL: | E32 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:344032 |
| By: | Ngov, Meng Yu; Vézina, Pierre-Louis; Tran, Trang Thu; Nayyar, Gaurav |
| Abstract: | This paper documents how foreign firms, inputs, and subsidies have shaped the development of Viet Nam’s solar panel industry. The analysis uses firmto-firm transaction data from Panjiva as well as firm-level data from the Viet Nam’s Enterprise Survey to trace solar panel value chains. It uncovers three key findings. First, parts and components from subsidizing countries are 30 percent cheaper than alternatives. Those from China, which provides the majority of solar inputs to Vietnamese producers, are cheapest. Foreign green subsidies may thus spill over across countries via value chains. Second, Chinese FDI firms dominate Viet Nam’s solar industry, accounting for 75% of exports and 50 percent of jobs, and they export solar panels that are 38 percent cheaper than those of other producers in Viet Nam. Third, local firms supplying parts and components to these Chinese FDI firms experience positive productivity gains. The findings show how Viet Nam’s solar boom emerged through deep integration into China’s subsidized supply chains. |
| Date: | 2026–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11478 |
| By: | Radoslaw Kotkowski; Michal Polasik; Andrzej Meler |
| Keywords: | Generative AI; Technology adoption; Digital divide; Gender gap; Diffusion of innovations |
| JEL: | C25 D83 J16 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cxu:wpaper:64 |
| By: | Juhászová, Tereza |
| Abstract: | This article explores patterns of post-socialist reindustrialization in Eastern Slovakia—a region deeply shaped by heavy socialist industrialization and subsequently exposed to the tumultuous “manager’s privatization” of the 1990s. Bridging social and economic history, it argues that inherited industrial legacies—in know-how, infrastructure, workforce, and export orientation— persisted even after a sharp decline in the first decade following the fall of socialism. Through two case studies—the “giant” East Slovak Ironworks near the regional capital Košice and a smaller metalworking factory in the nearby town of Medzev—the article shows how foreign investment, limited state intervention, and local agency jointly enabled the partial revitalization of regionally significant industries, despite the absence of a coherent industrial policy and the dismantling of state coordination after 1989. Drawing on archival records, contemporary press, and biographical interviews, the study traces the long-term trajectories of these sites within both socialist development agendas and post-socialist restructuring. By demonstrating how industrial continuity and reactivation emerged largely in the absence of strategic governance and industrial policy, the article contributes to broader debates on post-socialist varieties of capitalism, state capacity, and the uneven geography of industrial transformation. By foregrounding continuity and reinvention, this nuanced perspective challenges binary accounts of post-socialist change. |
| Date: | 2026–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:e698d_v1 |
| By: | Ismail, Nasrul |
| Abstract: | Compliance with judgments of the European Court of Human Rights is conventionally recorded as a terminal status: a case is open or closed, a judgment executed or pending, an obligation met or unmet. These measures enable scholarly comparison, but they cannot show how a state engages with the supervision of a judgment or whether reform of prison conditions endures. As such, this article treats compliance as conduct and asks whether the closure of supervision reflects durable improvement in the conditions a judgment addressed. Drawing on the documentary record of Committee of Ministers supervision in three pilot-judgment jurisdictions (i.e., Italy, Romania, and Hungary), with two contextual comparators (i.e., Spain and England and Wales), it codes state disclosures for opacity and stance and reconstructs responsiveness descriptively from the dated supervisory sequence. Two independent coders reached strong agreement (Krippendorff’s alpha of 0.88 for stance and 0.90 for opacity, on small, well-specified eligible data sets). The cases did not form a single compliance scale but displayed distinct configurations. Specifically, Italy was transparent but shifted in its stated position before closure in 2016; Romania combined continuing engagement with capacity explanations; and Hungary combined formal but insubstantial engagement with selective disclosure. Set against current prison occupancy, the state that had completed supervision was the most overcrowded: Italy recorded 120.7 occupants per 100 places, exceeding Hungary's 114.5 and Romania's 111.2. Because the occupancy snapshot postdated Italy's closure, it could not reveal whether closure caused the later overcrowding, but it did manifest that closure did not secure lasting improvement in reforms. The article frames this durability gap as a problem of means-ends decoupling and offers a reproducible method for distinguishing compliance conduct from the substantive conditions oversight exists to change. |
| Date: | 2026–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:fdbma_v1 |
| By: | Leidorf-Tidå, B.J.A.; König, Pascal |
| Abstract: | Trust in artificial intelligence (AI) applications is deemed crucial for uptake of the technology and the development of an AI market. In the present article, we argue that the institutional design of regulatory regimes matters for whether citizens trust AI systems. We study how trust in AI systems depends on who the responsible regulator is, the scope of the regulator’s scrutiny of AI systems, and the involvement of external stakeholders in regulatory oversight. Based on a conjoint design, we examine how respondents value these institutional design choices for the case of high-risk AI systems used in health care. Using samples from Lithuania, Romania, Sweden, and the Netherlands, with 4001 respondents overall, the pre-registered experiment shows that citizens have more trust in AI systems if vendors, civil society and especially independent researchers are involved in oversight, and if regulators actively scrutinize AI systems rather than relying solely on self-reporting. At least in two countries, citizens also seem to have more trust in AI systems if the sectoral health care regulator is the responsible regulator instead of a cross-sectoral regulator such as the national Data Protection Authority or a specific AI regulator. |
| Date: | 2026–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:by96n_v1 |
| By: | Fernando E. Alvarez; David Argente; Alberto Cavallo; Francesco Lippi |
| Abstract: | We use the euro cash changeover, a large-scale and purely nominal reform that requires all firms to redenominate posted prices, to distinguish among theories of price rigidity. We develop a nonstationary menu-cost model in which firms anticipate the changeover date and may combine currency adoption with real price adjustment. The announcement makes the firm’s inaction region time-varying, a singular control problem with a moving boundary for which closed-form characterizations are rarely available. We solve this problem analytically by perturbation, recovering the whole path of the boundary, the date at which firms begin adopting the new currency, and the implied pricing moments. The model predicts that, as the changeover approaches, firms adjust more frequently but by smaller amounts, compressing the distribution of price changes. We test these predictions using historical CPI micro data from Austria, Finland, Greece, and Slovakia, a UK benchmark, and daily price data from the recent changeovers in Croatia and Bulgaria. Across changeovers, adjustment frequency rises while the size and dispersion of price changes fall. The model adds a single parameter to the standard menu-cost setup, the cost of pricing in the wrong currency. Calibrating it to the observed rise in adjustment frequency, the model reproduces the decline in the size of price changes and its subsequent recovery, neither of which is targeted. The evidence supports state-dependent price-setting models over models in which nominal redenomination leaves real pricing behavior unchanged. |
| JEL: | D40 E31 E42 F33 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35790 |
| By: | Grillitsch, Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University); Cobos-Cabral, Francisco (CIRCLE, Lund University); Horvat, Andrej (U-LEAD with Europe - Ukraine Local Empowerment, Accountability and Development Programme at GIZ) |
| Abstract: | Local agency on the edge relates to situations that are particularly harsh and difficult, places where regional development is most needed but also most difficult to achieve. We study the role and relevance of local agency in such situations, as well as enabling and hindering conditions for local agency to emerge. We do this in two peripheral municipalities in Ukraine that were attacked and temporarily occupied by Russian forces but have shown a high degree of resilience. Theoretically, we propose a broad conception of development, which includes human wellbeing and social resilience. Such a broad conception also necessitates a more comprehensive understanding of local agency underpinning development, including social and technological innovation, institutional entrepreneurship and place-based leadership. The cases provide evidence for the potential development impact of bottom-up initiatives, which may unfold if local actors are sufficiently empowered. In the context of the study, a governance reform played an important role comprising decentralisation and municipal amalgamation in the wider context of a mindset change in favour of approximation towards the European Union. Local actors changed institutions, leading to better governance and participation from the citizens. Empowerment of local actors allowed for the successful implementation of multiple projects impacting citizens' wellbeing, improving health and education institutions, as well as cultural, sports and recreation facilities. These changes opened opportunities for increased entrepreneurial activity, contributing towards employment and tax revenue. Moreover, resilience to the Russian invasion rested on improved governance, relationships, citizen engagement, and capacities for project management developed before the war. |
| Keywords: | local agency; regional development; human wellbeing; social resilience |
| JEL: | I31 O18 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2025_005 |
| By: | Christl, Michael |
| Abstract: | Value-added tax (VAT) systems in EU Member States deviate substantially from a uniform-rate benchmark through reduced rates and exemptions, typically motivated by distributional concerns. This paper provides microsimulation evidence on the fiscal and distributional effects of the full set of VAT expenditures, including both reduced rates and the non-actionable exemption gap covering healthcare, education and financial services mandated by the EU VAT Directive, in five major EU economies (Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland) under the 2024 policy baseline. Using EUROMOD and its Indirect Tax Tool with EU-SILC 2022 microdata matched with EU-HBS 2015 expenditure data, and following a compensating variation welfare approach, we simulate a universal standard-rate VAT counterfactual and find that abolishing all VAT expenditures would reduce post-consumption-tax disposable income by 9-21% for bottom-decile households versus 3-5% for the top decile, with Italy and Spain displaying the most regressive reform-cost profiles. The difference in welfare loss between the bottom and top income deciles ranges from -6.3 percentage points in Poland to -16.3 percentage points in Italy. While VAT expenditures offer meaningful purchasing-power protection to lower-income households in proportional terms, this protection is poorly targeted in absolute terms because richer households capture a larger share of the implicit subsidy in absolute cash terms, and could be replicated more efficiently through targeted income transfers. We discuss implications for revenue-neutral VAT reform and the efficiency-equity trade-off in EU indirect taxation. |
| Keywords: | value-added tax, VAT expenditures, reduced rates, exemptions, income inequality, microsimulation, EUROMOD, indirect taxation, European Union |
| JEL: | H23 H25 D31 C15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1828 |
| By: | König, Pascal; Leidorf-Tidå, B.J.A. |
| Abstract: | This article examines EU citizens’ support for EU policy to attain digital sovereignty regarding Artificial intelligence (AI). Promoting domestic industries in AI is crucially important for attaining AI sovereignty. Yet, AI sovereignty policy ultimately hinges on support by the European public, and protective policy intervening in the EU AI market may be felt directly – and negatively – by citizens. Using survey data from Lithuania, the Netherlands, Romania, and Sweden, we examine how much citizens support AI sovereignty policy even if this comes with costs and study how political and AI attitudes are associated with this trade-off evaluation. The analysis shows that EU-centrism is positively associated with support for AI sovereignty policy whereas positive attitudes toward AI and higher trust in US and Chinese tech companies show negative associations. The results have important consequences for the EU’s possibilities to garner public support for an AI sovereignty policy agenda. |
| Date: | 2026–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:263yj_v1 |
| By: | Ágnes Szabó-Morvai (ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies; University of Debrecen); Anna Adamecz (Social Research Institute, University College London; ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies); Flavia Cavallini (Department of Economic Research, Bank of Italy); Jessica Nisén (INVEST Research Flagship Centre, University of Turku); Jitka Slabá (Department of Demography and Geodemography, Charles University); Csaba G. Tóth (ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies); Sofia Trommlerová (Institute of Public Policy, Comenius University Bratislava) |
| Abstract: | This article provides descriptive evidence on induced abortions over the past 25 years in Eastern, Northern, Western, and Southern Europe, combining publicly available abortion data with restricted-access administrative datasets. We document diverse abortion-related institutional environments across European regions, the evolution of the total abortion rate, and differences by age, parity, and education. We find a decreasing trend with strong convergence across European countries, regardless of institutional settings and social norms. The largest declines occurred in Eastern Europe, while rates changed comparatively little elsewhere. The declines were the steepest among women with at least one child. Abortion rates were consistently the highest among women with primary education and lowest among those with tertiary education. However, the long period of convergence appears to have come to an end recently: since 2021, abortion rates have risen substantially in several Northern, Western, and Southern European countries, while continuing to decline in Eastern Europe. |
| Keywords: | Abortion rate, Abortion ratio, Abortion trends, Abortion heterogeneity |
| JEL: | I12 J13 J65 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2614 |
| By: | Zoltan Bartha |
| Abstract: | The middle-income trap is usually identified by comparing a country's income to a threshold. This reveals that convergence has stalled but not where the blockage lies, and it leaves unexplained why the trap is still debated in countries that have already passed the threshold. This study treats the trap as a configuration problem, measuring development along three dimensions - future, outside, and inside potential - with indices built from standardised indicators. The indices are calculated for 34 OECD members in 2000, 2010, and 2020, so that changes in configuration become visible, and the resulting country clusters are interpreted through factor analysis. Two traps and two transition strategies emerge. The first strategy attracts foreign investment and technology, but can itself become a trap: domestic value added stays limited and rising wages erode export competitiveness. The second adds a developmental state focused on the quality of education, building the human capital that raises productivity and innovation. All six CEE members of the OECD had adopted the first strategy by 2010; by 2020 only Estonia had completed the second. Configuration levels and changes track relative income convergence. |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2610.07974 |
| By: | Lajos Tamás Szabó (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the Central Bank of Hungary)); Ã lmos Telegdy (Corvinus University of Budapest); András Borsos (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the Central Bank of Hungary), Complexity Science Hub Vienna, Institute for New Economic Thinking, University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how interfirm trade relationships shape job†to†job mobility along domestic supply chains. Using Hungarian administrative data of firm†to†firm transactions and matched employer–employee records from 2015–2022, we estimate event†study models with dyadic fixed effects and matched non†trading controls. Trade roughly doubles worker mobility between partners, with larger effects for pairs characterized by high trade shares, and when the partner has a high wage, is a superstar, or growing. Downstream mobility always exceeds upstream mobility. We find no consistent differences between high†and low†skill mobility, and mobility along supply chains does not generate systematically higher wage growth. |
| Keywords: | Production Network, Interfirm Worker Mobility, Hungary |
| JEL: | F16 J60 F14 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2026/4 |
| By: | Akbulut-Yuksel, Mevlude (Dalhousie University); Aydemir, Abdurrahman (Sabanci University); Kirdar, Murat (Koc University); Turan, Belgi (TOBB University of Economics and Technology) |
| Abstract: | We ask whether cultural constraints are a development bottleneck in conservative middle-income economies, limiting women's entry into manufacturing and slowing fertility decline and human-capital accumulation. We exploit the 1989 forced migration of ethnic Turks from Bulgaria to Turkiye. Refugee women shared native women's language, religion, and ethnicity but had much higher employment, especially in manufacturing. We combine difference-in-differences with an instrument based on where the state settled earlier ethnic Turkish migrants. Exposure to refugee women raised native women's participation and employment a decade later, especially in male-dominated tradable manufacturing. Native men saw no significant gains. A one-percentage-point higher refugee-to-native ratio raises native women's manufacturing employment by 0.9 percentage points, about 23 percent of the 1990 mean. Exposure reduced fertility and raised middle-school completion among native girls and boys. The results suggest that an exogenous cultural shock relaxed a binding constraint on women's modern-sector entry, a margin central to structural transformation and demographic transition. Intermarriage and World Values Survey evidence is consistent with this view. |
| Keywords: | structural transformation, demographic transition, cultural barriers, refugees, women's employment, manufacturing |
| JEL: | J16 J13 O11 O14 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18983 |
| By: | José Manuel Díaz Pulido; Nick Thijs |
| Abstract: | This report provides a regional perspective on the state of play of digital public services across public administrations in the Western Balkans. It offers an in‑depth analysis of the availability and quality of digital public services, benchmarked against relevant EU policy objectives and requirements. The report also examines the maturity of key enablers underpinning service digitalisation, including governance arrangements, interoperability and electronic identification. It is conceived as a comparative analytical reference paper to inform EU accession dialogue and reform design on the digitalisation of public administrative services in the Western Balkans. |
| Keywords: | cross-border public services, data exchange, digital decade 2030, digital government, digital identity, digital public infrastructure, digital public services, digital registries, digital transformation, egovernment, eIDAS, EU accession, interoperability, once-only principle, online public services, service accessibility, service transparency, user-centred services, Western Balkans |
| Date: | 2026–10–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:govaac:82-en |
| By: | Goraya, Sampreet Singh (House of Sustainable Society (HoSS)); Srhoj, Stjepan (University of Split); Zrnc, Jurica (Croatian National Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how government demand affects the labor share of income. Winning a procurement contract lowers a firm’s labor share. The decline is driven by higher revenue per worker with limited pass-through to wages, and these revenue productivity gains reflect rising firm-level markups rather than improvements in physical efficiency. The effects are strongest for firms winning contracts as the only bidder. Evidence from bids, award prices, and political connections points to limited competition in procurement as the driving force. Government demand thus shapes the division of income between firm owners and workers, with implications for inequality. |
| Keywords: | public procurement; market power; labor share; competition; political connections |
| JEL: | D24 D43 H57 L11 L22 |
| Date: | 2026–09–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:hamisu:2026_005 |
| By: | Beáta Horváth (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)); Tamás Berki (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)); Lívia Réka Ónozó (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)); Csanád Temesvári (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a sentiment-based financial stress indicator for Hungary based on occurrence of financial crisis related terms and explores its relationship with macrofinancial variables related to financial uncertainty. Sentiment analysis was conducted on textual data from two major Hungarian news portals covering the period from 2005 to 2020. The terms used in the analysis carry negative connotations, making them suitable for capturing financial instability and stress. The index successfully identifies stress periods that are not adequately reflected by other available sentiment indices related to Hungary. Overall, we propose a novel type of index that enables timely, even real-time monitoring of financial stress situation in Hungary across different time frequencies. |
| Keywords: | sentiment; financial stress; text analysis |
| JEL: | C32 E44 G01 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2026/3 |
| By: | Csaba Burger (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)); Péter Szabó (Eötvös Loránd University); Rita Pongrácz (Eötvös Loránd University) |
| Abstract: | Climate change elevated the relevance of fire risk projections for the future, which are essential for estimating the potential changes to expected economic losses, including the changing risk exposure of banking assets and insurance policies. And while the use of empirical models is required to lend credibility to this undertaking, human-induced fires, particularly stubble (or crop residue) fires, distort the observed relationship between weather and fire risk. This paper presents an empirical-statistical model to estimate future fire risk using MODIS satellite data for fire occurrences, the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) as weather-based input, and CORINE Land Cover information. The model is developed for Hungary at a 5 km resolution over the period 2001-2024. In addition, we account for the Human Factor (HF) in fire risk by introducing a Google Trends-based proxy reflecting legislation and public awareness of fire. Alternative definitions of this variable are also tested. Incorporating the HF mitigates omitted variable bias, improves the explanation of past fire occurrences, and reverses the overall KBDI-fire risk relationship to the expected positive sign. Under the pessimistic RCP8.5 scenario, current fire occurrence risk is projected to double by the end of the century, with a potential of reaching a fivefold increase in extreme years, assuming the present HF in fire prevention and land cover flammability remain constant. |
| Keywords: | climate change; fire risk; central banking; KBDI; causal graphs |
| JEL: | G21 G22 Q10 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2026/2 |
| By: | Kowalik, Zuzanna (Institute for Structural Research (IBS), University of Warsaw); Lewandowski, Piotr (Institute for Structural Research (IBS)); Pompei, Fabrizio (Università degli Studi di Perugia); Stichnoth, Holger (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW)); Szymczak, Wojciech (Uppsala University); Thil, Laurène (KU Leuven) |
| Abstract: | We study platform workers' preferences for social protection — in the form of sick pay and paid annual leave — distinguishing between workers who entered platform work out of economic necessity (the "pushed") and those attracted by its flexibility and advantages (the "pulled"). Using a discrete-choice experiment administered to nearly 800 taxi, delivery, and cleaning platform workers in Germany, Italy, and Poland, we find an average willingness to pay at 3.7% of earnings for sick pay coverage and 4.6% for paid annual leave. Preferences, however, differ sharply by motivation: pushed workers are willing to forgo on average 5.3% of earnings for sick pay, and 5.6% for paid annual leave, while pulled workers' valuations are substantially lower (3.1% and 4.2%, respectively). This difference is most pronounced among workers without access to these benefits, suggesting that the absence of protections is particularly consequential for those who entered platform work under greater economic constraint. The findings indicate that the welfare impact of extending social protections to platform workers — as proposed by the EU Platform Work Directive — might depend on the share of necessity-driven workers in the platform workforce. |
| Keywords: | platform work, willingness to pay, discrete choice experiment, social protection, job quality |
| JEL: | J32 J28 J81 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18967 |
| By: | Christopher A. Hartwell |
| Abstract: | Organizations may perceive disorder in their environment as a threat which can impede the attainment of desired goals. In such a situation, organizations may become single minded, obsessed, and rely on brute force to attempt to bend the external environment to their will. These efforts may be enabled by perceived power imbalances between the organization and other actors in the environment, but they may also be stymied by the complexity of other organizations in the institutional field. This paper examines such an example in Soviet Kazakhstan from 1929 to 1933, when the All Union Communist Party pursued a policy of sedentarization of the nomadic people. Forcibly migrating nomads to collective farms under a brutal policy of repression, the Soviet bureaucracy at all levels saw no policy as off-limits to achieving its goals but continued to run up against resistance from the complex organizational forms inherent in Kazakh nomadism. Using archival documents, testimonies from Kazakhs, and arrest records from this time period, I show just exactly how the Soviet apparatus pulled the devil from the machine and how, ultimately, the machines were doomed to failure. However, the human cost of forced migration continues to linger. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.31916 |
| By: | László Czaller; Virág Ilyés; Gergő Tóth |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether unemployed workers searching in dense urban labor markets are better able to realize their occupational search goals. We use linked employer–employee administrative data from Hungary that record theoccupation in which unemployed workers primarily seek work and compare these targets with their subsequent occupations. We find that workers searching in denser labor markets are more likely to find employment in their targeted occupation or in some closely related occupation. These results are robust to a rich set of control variables and alternative specifications. To address potential endogeneity concerns, we use historical data on population and railway infrastructure to construct instruments for contemporary employment density. Finally, examining the role of search targets in post-unemployment occupational mobility, we find that denser labor markets are associated with greater occupational continuity among workers who seek to return to their previous occupation, while those seeking to change occupations tend to move to occupations that are more similar to their previous ones in terms of skill requirements. |
| Keywords: | Labormarketdensity, Occupationaltargets, Unemployment, Jobsearch, Matching |
| JEL: | J24 J62 J64 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2622 |
| By: | Korneliusz Pylak (Lublin University of Technology, Lublin, Poland); Michael Fritsch (Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany); Michael Wyrwich (University of Groningen, The Netherlands, and Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the dynamics of regional innovation activity in Europe from 2000 to 2020 using patent applications. Standard convergence measures indicate that regional disparities are narrowing, with initially lagging regions catching up to the leading ones. Our analysis reveals two persistent ‘clubs’: the ‘lagging’ and the ‘advanced’ regions. Although these groups are becoming increasingly similar, the differences between them remain largely unchanged. Despite two decades of growth, the disparity between the two clubs still accounts for a great deal of the total variation in regional patenting. These patterns suggest a convergence illusion that is overlooked in the current scholarly debate. |
| Keywords: | regional innovation, convergence, convergence clubs, European regions |
| JEL: | O31 R11 O47 |
| Date: | 2026–09–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2026-011 |