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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Thu Thi Phuong Nguyen (Mekong Development Research Institute); Tinh Doan (Adelaide University and University of Economics , Ho Chi Minh City); Maria Isabel Santana (University of East Anglia); Huong Thi Pham (University of Economics, Ho Chi Minh City) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the joint role of education and health in wage determination and labour-force participation among Vietnamese working-age individuals, using pooled 2014-2020 Viet Nam Household Living Standards Survey data and a health-augmented Mincerian framework with Heckman selection correction. Comparing hourly and monthly wage specifications reveals a severity gradient in the healthrelated wage penalty: under the broad morbidity measure, poor health reduces monthly earnings by approximately 9% with no significant hourly wage effect, consistent with a reduction in working time; under the narrower bedridden-days measure of poor health, poor health also reduces hourly wages by approximately 7%, alongside a larger monthly wage penalty of approximately 16%, consistent with a productivity loss due to poor health among those who remain at work. Education does not significantly moderate the wage penalty but is positively associated with labour-force participation among severely ill individuals. Returns to education range from approximately 4.5% to 4.8% per additional year. The findings suggest that the economic cost of poor health in Viet Nam is severity-dependent and operates partly through labour-force attachment, with implications for policies addressing paid sick leave and social health insurance. |
| Keywords: | Returns to education; Health; Wage penalty; Heckman selection; Viet Nam |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adl:wpaper:2026-12 |
| By: | Kovácsné Bosnyák, Eszter |
| Abstract: | The study examines the effects of Hungary's family policy credit programmes-particularly the Baby-expecting loan and the family housing allowance (CSOK) scheme-from a behavioral economics perspective. While these programmes were designed to promote childbearing and improve access to housing, birth trends suggest that their impact has been temporary rather than lasting. The analysis draws on time series from 2010 to 2024, statistics from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) and the National Bank of Hungary (MNB), as well as survey evidence. The research focuses specifically on decision-making biases: present bias, "now-or-never" framing, and over-optimism. Our findings indicate that although the programmes did contribute to a short-term increase in births, they primarily generated brought-forward births rather than a durable demographic turnaround. In addition, the side effects of the subsidies distorted the housing market: they contributed to rapid house-price growth, reinforced social inequalities, and further widened regional disparities. The research is novel in that it assesses the effects of family policy loans not only within an economic framework but also through a behavioral lens. It shows that well-targeted subsidies, on their own, are insufficient to achieve sustainable demographic growth if they overlook households' psychological decision-making biases and the long-term social consequences. |
| Keywords: | behavioral economic, fertility, housing market, baby-expecting loan and family housing allowance (CSOK), present bias |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:343871 |
| By: | Anna Alberini; Levan Bezhanishvili; Milan Ščasný; Roberton C. Williams III |
| Abstract: | We examine the response of residential customers to an extreme price change – namely that imposed by the government in the Republic of Georgia during the pandemic lockdown in the winter of 2020 and early 2021. As of November 2020, the government paid the gas bill directly to the utility, effectively making gas free, as long as consumption was below or exactly 200 m3/month. The policy was lifted at the end of February 2021. We use quasi-experimental causal methods based on a control group comprised of permanent residents of an area along the North-South pipeline, who receive gas for free (up to the generous allowance of 700 m3/month) every winter, while the treatment group is comprised of households living in areas with similar climates and similar population density who received gas for free only during the pandemic free gas months. Controlling for the weather, the ATT of the policy is a 2-7% increase in gas consumption (in the treatment group compared to the control group). Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest a price elasticity of demand of -6.5% to -11%. |
| JEL: | H23 L95 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35759 |
| By: | Huong Thi Pham (University of Economics, Ho Chi Minh City); Tinh Doan (Adelaide University and University of Economics , Ho Chi Minh City); Canh Nguyen (Dong Thap University) |
| Abstract: | Vietnam’s expansion of university admission pathways has raised questions about whether high school (HS) transcripts or national exam scores better predict student success. Examining five entry cohorts (11, 127 students) at a Mekong regional university, this study compares how high school grades and national exam scores forecast first-year college performance across different fields of study. Results show that high school transcripts are a stronger and more reliable predictor of university academic performance than single-occasion national exam scores. Overall high school academic rank also serves as a clear indicator of achievement, with top-ranked high school students consistently outperforming their peers in college. The strength of these admission measures varies by discipline, showing the strongest predictive power in Natural Science and Technology programs and the lowest in Education. These findings demonstrate that consistent high school performance offers a clearer and more reliable forward-looking signal of university readiness than a single exam. Higher education leaders should retain transcript-based entry while standardising high school grading practices and adopting field-specific admission criteria. These findings support the Vietnam Ministry of Education and Training’s decision to retain high school transcripts in university admissions despite some public calls for their abolition. |
| Keywords: | admissions pathway; predictive validity; first-year GPA; transcript vs. exam; higher education, Vietnam |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adl:wpaper:2026-13 |
| By: | Dang, Hai-Anh (World Bank); Do, Minh (University of Economics and Business, Vietnam National University, Hanoi); Le, Duy-Anh (Department of Economics, College of Arts and Sciences, VinUniversity, Viet Nam) |
| Abstract: | Viet Nam’s timely reduction of 63 province-level units to 34 renders its number of provinces typical of countries of its size. International evidence, however, shows that savings and development gains are neither automatic nor evenly shared. Reclassifying 2002–2020 household data onto the new map leaves national measures of poverty and inequality unchanged but moves part of measured inequality from between provinces to within them. Administrative poverty rates also reveal large differences among areas now sharing one provincial budget. This essay offers tentative policy suggestions such as keeping poorer places visible, allocating resources according to need, protecting access to benefits and public services, and connecting lagging areas to jobs and markets. |
| Keywords: | administrative consolidation, provincial mergers, decentralization, poverty, inequality, social protection, modifiable areal unit problem, Viet Nam |
| JEL: | D6 H1 I3 O1 R5 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18920 |
| By: | Jianu, Ionuț; Tudorache, Maria-Daniela |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the recent dynamics of income inequality and poverty in Romania in comparison with the European Union, focusing on their main determinants. The analysis combines descriptive and comparative approaches with correlation techniques to explore the relationship between social indicators and key variables such as education, labour market conditions, and institutional quality. The results show that, although Romania has recorded a significant reduction in income inequality and a moderate decline in the poverty rate over the last decade, major challenges persist, particularly in rural areas and among vulnerable groups. The findings highlight the important role of social transfers in reducing inequality, but also their limited effectiveness in addressing relative poverty. At the same time, education and institutional quality are critical factors negatively associated with poverty and inequality. |
| Keywords: | inequality, poverty, institutions, social transfers, Gini coefficient |
| JEL: | D63 I32 O17 F43 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:344071 |
| By: | Lukić, Miloš |
| Abstract: | Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming public governance worldwide, enabling states to provide services faster, more efficiently, and more transparently. In Serbia, AI has the potential to reshape public administration, strengthen democratic accountability, and support sustainable development. Yet, it also poses ethical, legal, and institutional challenges that must be addressed with foresight and responsibility. This paper explores how Serbia can integrate AI into its governance system in an ethical, effective, and citizen-centered manner. Through comparative analysis, theoretical synthesis, and policy recommendations, the paper outlines a roadmap for aligning Serbia's public administration with European and global standards of AI governance. |
| Keywords: | artificial Intelligence, public Administration, ethics, Republic of Serbia, digital transformation |
| JEL: | H83 O33 O38 D73 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:343876 |
| By: | Delić, Erna; Gadžo, Amra |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study is to explore how Swedish sustainability reports can serve as a reference point for Bosnia and Herzegovina in building a more coherent and comparable reporting system. This study focuses on sustainability reports from Swedish listed companies aligned with the CSRD as a benchmark for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2024. By conducting a comparative and content analysis highlight how the structured and detailed form of Swedish reports can inform the development of BiH's practices, which at present lack consistency and formalization. The findings suggest that implementing the CSRD could accelerate BiH's transition toward systematic and internationally comparable reporting. The paper concludes on how Swedish experiences and reporting practices can be adapted to the Bosnian context. The findings indicate that Swedish reports are characterized by a high degree of standardization, sectoral comparability, and integration with European sustainability frameworks, while Bosnian reports show inconsistency and limited stakeholder orientation. The study concludes that gradual adoption of the CSRD, accompanied by institutional support and sector-specific guidelines, could accelerate Bosnia and Herzegovina's transition toward systematic, transparent, and internationally comparable reporting. Swedish experiences thus offer concrete lessons for designing a more coherent sustainability reporting system in Bosnia and Herzegovina. |
| Keywords: | sustainability reporting, content analysis, corporate sustainability reporting directive |
| JEL: | M40 M41 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:343409 |
| By: | Muratović, Alma; Nanić, Arnela; Herić, Erna |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the attitudes of employees and management regarding selected characteristics of communication within internal marketing in banks operating in the market of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The research objectives are: 1) to determine the attitudes of employees and management toward the internal communication system in banks in Bosnia and Herzegovina, 2) to identify the existence of statistically significant differences in attitudes between employees and management regarding internal communication in these banks, 3) to examine the influence of employees' socio-demographic characteristics on their attitudes toward internal communication in banks in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Using the independent samples t-test, it was found that the attitudes of employees and management differ significantly in 5 out of 15 observed elements through which internal communication in Bosnian and Herzegovinian banks was analyzed. Furthermore, the results of the χ² test indicate that, with the exception of six observed characteristics, there is no statistically significant influence of employees' socio-demographic attributes on their attitudes toward the analyzed elements of internal communication in banks in Bosnia and Herzegovina. |
| Keywords: | internal marketing, internal marketing communication, banking sector |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:343873 |
| By: | Schröder, Maximilian |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomic policy increasingly requires assessments of risk rather than point forecasts alone. This paper develops a framework to compute impulse responses for scenario probabilities and the full predictive distribution of macroeconomic outcomes. The approach combines a regime-dependent mixture VAR with endogenous state probabilities and heteroskedastic shock identification, complemented by sparse sign and narrative restrictions. Applied to the euro area and U.S., the framework addresses a central policy question following the outbreak of the 2026 Iran war: do geopolitical shocks imply a return to the risk profile observed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, or is this time different? Results show that shocks differ not only in their effects on expected outcomes, but also in how they reshape scenario probabilities, tail risks, and transitions into high-volatility states. JEL Classification: C11, C32, C34, C53, E37 |
| Keywords: | Bayesian econometrics, density forecasting, macroeconomic risks, scenario analysis, state-dependent transmission |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263290 |
| By: | Umihanić, Bahrija; Sakić, Amir |
| Abstract: | The halal industry, as a value-based business system, has become one of the most dynamic segments of the global economy, with increasing significance for Southeast Europe. This paper provides a theoretical foundation and empirically tests an originally conceived framework for halal competencies based on KSAH approach. The authors develop it as an integration of employees' knowledge, skills, attitudes, and habits, operationalize it within halal context into composite measures, and examine its impact on organizational efficiency through process management, internal halal audit, nonconformity management, and customer satisfaction. The research was conducted on a sample of 225 respondents from 79 halal-certified companies in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, and Serbia. Empirical analysis shows that the reliability of the scales is high, intercorrelations among competency dimensions are pronounced, while associations with efficiency outcomes are low but stable. All four regression models are globally significant with determination coefficients. Partial effects are differentiated: skills reliably predict internal halal audit, while habits significantly contribute to customer satisfaction. For process management and nonconformity management, no significant individual predictors stand out, although the effects are in the expected direction. The contribution of the paper is twofold: first, in the original conceptualization and measurement validation of the KSAH framework adapted to the halal context, and second, in the empirical explanation of the mechanisms that translate competencies into measurable domains of efficiency, offering clear guidelines for workforce development and integration with quality management systems. |
| Keywords: | halal competencies, KSAH, organizational efficiency, halal industry |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:343872 |