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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Nieuwenhuis, Aukje; Postepska, Agnieszka; Alessie, Rob; Voloshyna, Anastasiia |
| Abstract: | The Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 triggered one of the largest refugee movements in Europe since World War II, with millions of Ukrainians seeking safety abroad. Czechia, Germany, and Poland emerged as primary destinations. Activation of the EU's Temporary Protection Directive granted Ukrainian refugees immediate access to host-country labor markets, creating substantial labor supply shocks. This study examines the impact of the inflow of Ukrainian refugees into the workforce in these three countries using quarterly individual-level microdata from the European Union Labor Force Survey (EU-LFS) between 2017 and 2023. Leveraging regional variation in exposure to Ukrainian employees, we estimate the effects of refugee employment on local employment, unemployment, inactivity, and working hours. We find no population-wide displacement effects, consistent with prior evidence for Czechia. However, subgroup analyses reveal heterogeneous impacts across countries. In Czechia, low-educated men benefited from increased labor demand, whereas in Poland, low-educated men experienced adverse effects. In Germany, secondary-educated men faced greater competitive pressure, reflected in an acceleration of early retirement. These differences likely stem from cross-country variation in refugee skill composition and bureaucratic barriers to labor market entry. Our findings highlight how institutional context shapes refugee integration and mediates the effects of large labor supply shocks on vulnerable segments of the local workforce. |
| Keywords: | Ukrainian refugees, Immigrants, Local labor market, Labor supply |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1769 |
| By: | Petra Landovska (Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic); Jana Votapkova (Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | Population ageing and declining fertility challenge public pension systems and raise concerns about financial preparedness for retirement. While wealth accumulation depends on socioeconomic characteristics such as income, education, and health, family size may also shape long-term saving outcomes. Two competing mechanisms may operate: childrearing may reduce wealth accumulation through higher expenditures and lower labour supply, while parents may also accumulate wealth to secure retirement and support their children's transition to adulthood. Using data from Wave 9 of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), this study examines the association between completed fertility and household wealth among individuals aged 50 and older in the Czech Republic. We analyze more than 2, 000 households using ordinary least squares regression with multiple imputation and Rubin's rules. The analysis tests for non-linear fertility effects, distinguishes between real and nancial assets, explores age heterogeneity, and conducts robustness checks using alternative wealth definitions and restricted age samples. We find that fertility is more strongly associated with the accumulation of real assets than with financial wealth, consistent with the Czech-specific preference for saving through housing and other real assets. We also observe cohort-specific patterns linked to the pronatalist policies of the 1970s in Czechoslovakia, highlighting the potential importance of policies that reduce the economic burden of childrearing for young families. However, institutional and cohort-specific contexts should be taken into account when interpreting these results. |
| Keywords: | Fertility, Household wealth, Private savings, Old-age security, Czech Republic |
| JEL: | J13 D14 J14 H55 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2026_12 |
| By: | Tahir, Sumiya; Audi, Marc; Ali, Amjad |
| Abstract: | This paper examined the effect of green and brown foreign direct investment on economic growth in ten Central and Eastern European countries. It also examines how trade openness, inflation, and consumption of renewable energy determine long and short-term economic performance, and the asymmetric impacts of foreign direct investment composition are also highlighted. The Annual data between 1995 and 2024 was estimated by Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) models to estimate the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships. To establish the order of integration, stationarity tests, such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron, were performed. The analysis of cointegration and asymmetry effects was done to measure the relative contribution of green and brown foreign direct investment to GDP growth. Empirical evidence shows that the impact of green foreign direct investment on the GDP is positive and statistically significant both in the long-term and in the short-term (effective only limited or even negative) in the short-term. Trade openness and the consumption of renewable energy have a positive effect on the growth of the economy, which shows the advantages of entering global markets and producing low-carbon technologies. Inflation negatively impacts the GDP, which proves the significance of macroeconomic stability in investment productivity. The results of the analysis also indicate a cointegration relationship amongst variables in the long run, and the asymmetric tests indicate that positive inflows of green foreign direct investment have stronger growth effects compared to the similar effects of reductions. The paper highlights how green foreign direct investment should be encouraged with strategic significance to support the long-term economic growth of transition economies. The policy measures that promote environment-based investments, trade facilitation strategy, and energy transition strategies have a significant impact on the attainment of low-carbon and inclusive development. The findings suggest that policy frameworks should prioritize environmentally sustainable investment and strengthen renewable energy transitions to achieve long-term economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Green Foreign Direct Investment, Brown Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth, Trade Openness, Inflation, Renewable Energy, Central and Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | F21 O4 Q3 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128997 |
| By: | Chencen Guo (Institute for International and Area Studies (IIAS), Tsinghua University); Hong Ma (Department of Economics, Tsinghua University) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effects of increased trade exposure to China on the Polish labor market during the period 2011–2019. Utilizing detailed industry-level data and an instrumental variable strategy based on trade flows from other Visegrad Group countries, we disentangle the impacts of import competition and access to imported intermediate inputs. We find that while import competition induced job losses in specific sectors, industries benefiting from access to Chinese intermediate inputs experienced substantial employment gains. Critically, this positive input channel effect was sufficient to offset the majority of displacement losses caused by import competition. Although manufacturing as a whole faced a slight net decline, the aggregate economy experienced net employment expansion. These results identify a “China Boost” driven by intermediate inputs, suggesting that Chinese imports act as strategic complements to domestic labor in Poland, contrasting sharply with the “China Shock” observed in the United States. |
| Keywords: | China shock, global value chain, intermediate input, Poland |
| JEL: | F14 F16 F66 P33 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fme:wpaper:117 |
| By: | Singh, Rahul |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the Industrial Relations (Central) Rules, 2026, notified by the Ministry of Labour and Employment on 8 May 2026 through Gazette notification G.S.R. 342(E), and assesses their implications for manufacturing-led growth and Comprehensive National Power. The analysis situates the rules within the scholarly debate between Bhagwati and Panagariya on labour-intensive manufacturing, Rajan on domestic-oriented growth, and Rodrik on premature deindustrialization. Four provisions are documented: the 300-worker threshold for prior permission on lay-offs, retrenchments, and closures; the 14-day strike notice with a 60-day validity period applicable across all establishments; the 30 percent secret-ballot threshold for sole negotiating union recognition; and the Worker Re-skilling Fund under Rule 37. A comparative review of labour regimes in China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany indicates that India retains a prior-permission architecture for collective dismissals while peer jurisdictions operate on notice-and-consult models. The paper applies Bhonsle's framework on Comprehensive National Power to read the rules as a mechanism mediating economic, governance, social-harmony, and human-capital objectives, and identifies limits in coverage, digital access, and unemployment protection. |
| Date: | 2026–05–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:du3gb_v1 |
| By: | Karadja, Mounir (Uppsala University); Khan, Akib (House of Sustainable Society (HoSS)); Martén, Linna (Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | We study how expatriates cope when conflict breaks out in their homeland. Using Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine as a natural experiment, we identify causal effects using a matched difference-in-differences design, comparing incumbent Ukrainian migrants in Sweden to matched migrants from other countries. We show that Ukrainian expatriates experience immediate and persistent mental health deterioration—a 30 percent increase in psychiatric prescription use that remains elevated three years later—while simultaneously increasing employment and earnings. A simple framework rationalizes this pattern through two channels operating in opposite directions: concern for family safety worsens mental health and raises the disutility of work, while heightened financial responsibilities raise the return to earning income. Consistent with reduced reservation wages, Ukrainians take on secondary jobs, exit unemployment faster into lower-quality jobs, and earn less than comparable coworkers. Earnings effects concentrate among migrants from more war-exposed regions, while mental health effects attenuate in Swedish municipalities with more Ukrainian refugee arrivals. Results replicate in European and US survey data. As global migration and armed conflict both reach historic highs, the findings show that the welfare costs of war extend across borders, shaping the well-being and economic behavior of expatriates worldwide. |
| Keywords: | Migration; Armed conflict; Mental health; Labor supply; Earnings; Refugees; Diaspora populations; Natural experiments |
| JEL: | D74 F22 I12 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–06–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:hamisu:2026_002 |
| By: | Sillero Illanes Carmen (European Commission - JRC); Ramiro Troitiño David; Kasper Agnes |
| Abstract: | In 2007, Estonia was the first state to experience a coordinated large-scale cyberattack targeting government, financial, and media infrastructure. For a small, highly digitalised country on NATO's eastern border with Russia, cyber resilience means survival. Since then, Estonia has pioneered a Total Defence concept that seamlessly integrates civilian and military cyber capabilities, positioning the nation as Europe's digital security laboratory and host to NATO's Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence. Estonia is the third case study framed in the exploratory research activity on regions, dual-use and open strategic autonomy (REGDUALOSA) of the Joint Research Centre. This report presents the findings of an in-depth review of the Estonian cybersecurity and cyberdefence ecosystem, applying an adapted version of the Joint Research Centre's POINT methodology and extracting lessons from its experience. With a whole-of-society approach, Estonia has developed dedicated mechanisms and pioneering infrastructure to convert national security requirements into innovation capacity, start-up development, and cyberdiplomacy. However, tensions are also present in this small country, including talent availability and retention, the appetite of foreign investors, and the risk of scale-up company delocalisation. These findings offer evidence for policy design of relevance to European policymakers, in a context of unprecedented geopolitical uncertainty. As the EU prepares the new financial framework 2028–2034 in which defence, preparedness, and strategic autonomy are on the rise, these priorities must go hand in hand with sustainable competitiveness and the right to stay in your own territory |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc145753 |
| By: | Gorodnichenko, Yuriy (University of California, Berkeley); Sologoub, Ilona (VoxUkraine); Fedyk, Yuriy (AI for Good Foundation) |
| Abstract: | Using a representative sample of more than 7, 000 Ukrainians, we study how information treatments affect corruption perceptions and prosocial behavior. We document a large gap between perceived and experienced corruption: while most respondents view corruption as widespread and a major national problem, far fewer report direct exposure. Through a randomized controlled trial, we find that informing citizens about successful prosecutions raises perceived government willingness to fight corruption but does not reduce overall corruption perceptions. Communicating the scale of corruption alone generates no significant effects. Information treatments have little effect on hypothetical or actual donations and volunteering, suggesting a limited pass-through from changed beliefs to prosocial action. Thus, while information interventions can strengthen institutional credibility, they alone are not enough to tangibly improve civic engagement or reduce perceptions of corruption. |
| Keywords: | corruption, beliefs, RCT |
| JEL: | D73 O17 O52 P2 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18663 |
| By: | Nguyen, Son |
| Abstract: | Vietnam’s International Financial Centers (IFCs) in Ho Chi Minh City and Danang represent a strategic pivot toward deep integration into the global financial architecture. Established under Resolution 222/2025/QH15, these centers promise flexible legal frameworks, preferential tax regimes, and specialized dispute resolution mechanisms. Yet, implementation reveals both visible and hidden legal risks that can undermine predictability and investment efficacy. Employing doctrinal legal analysis, comparative institutional benchmarking, and contrarian critique, this paper dissects two risk strata: visible risks (ambiguous legal status, fragmented governance, foreign exchange controls, and AML/CFT gaps) and hidden risks (enforcement discretion, judicial conservatism, cross-border data sovereignty conflicts, and geopolitical friction). Challenging the traditional “legal enclave” paradigm, the study argues that IFC success depends on systemic alignment with Vietnam’s domestic legal ecosystem rather than institutional isolation. The paper proposes a strategic architecture encompassing hybrid dispute resolution, dynamic contracting with stabilization clauses, co-regulatory dialogue, and climate-aligned ESG compliance. Its primary contribution lies in a multi-layered legal risk taxonomy and a paradigm shift from risk mitigation toward adaptive institutional co-creation, offering actionable frameworks for multinational enterprises, legal practitioners, and policymakers navigating emerging market financial hubs. |
| Date: | 2026–05–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8r9cx_v1 |
| By: | Pagarani, Vicky |
| Abstract: | The analysis carried out in this research paper attempts to understand the trade dynamics in the Vietnam-USA telecommunications corridor from 2023 to 2025 under the recent tariff regime. The macroeconomic backdrop is characterized primarily by the historic decoupling, with the share of US imports from China fell to 9% by July 2025 (Alfaro and Chor 2025). In a Two-Way Fixed Effects DiD design (N=4, 464; T=36; G=124), we find a rather unusual nominal routing hardware (HS 851762) surge of 978.03M dollars. Further, the application of Rambachan & Roth (2023) Honest Bounds resulted in this aggregate dollar figure being statistically subsumed by compounding pre-trend volatility. Cutting off this financial noise, a strong statistically significant underlying signal becomes visible: a negative density anomaly (Honest Bounds [-2151, -607] Kg/M-USD). The effect of this is that post-policy imports are structurally lightened in relation to their reported financial worth. The SCM asserts that semiconductor fabrication (HS 8542) is not responsive (gap=-$14.23M, Abadie p=0.67). To conclude, the reaction is primarily not volume dumping but a compositional change, hardware substitution and a complicated supply-chain reallocation in response to the new rules of origin. For the identification of the exact firm-level mechanisms, future micro-data research is needed. |
| Keywords: | Vietnam-USA telecommunications corridor; Trade decoupling; Difference-in-Differences (DiD); Synthetic Control Method (SCM); Rambachan & Roth Honest Bounds; HS 851762; Negative density anomaly; Compositional trade shifts; Hardware substitution; Rules of origin; China Plus One; Transshipment penalty; HS 8542; SHA-256 FE83194CE17084A872E6CB7DC176D562A8E0BFD7CE70D37DC43C6412D3ADFDF7 |
| JEL: | C23 F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2026–03–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128483 |
| By: | Giovanni Mellace; Rok Spruk |
| Abstract: | We estimate long-run effects of Cuba's 1961 National Health Service and contemporaneous National Literacy Campaign using synthetic-control methods on newly assembled series for 21 former European colonies in the Americas, 1900--2022. Relative to synthetic Cuba, infant mortality falls 15--29 percent and average years of schooling rise 1.5--2 years; both effects are large, persistent, and robust to augmented SCM, synthetic difference-in-differences, interactive fixed effects, and matrix completion. Life-expectancy gains attenuate after 1990, consistent with the post-Soviet Special Period, suggesting that bundled health and literacy reforms permanently raise early-life survival and human capital, with smaller and less robust effects on adult longevity. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.29785 |