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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Andriy Tsapin (National Bank of Ukraine) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effects of the russia's full-scale invasion on the Ukrainian corporate labor market. We use the DID technique to analyze a panel data set of over 100, 000 firms linked to geolocation and industry data spanning 2021-2024 and show how war harms the corporate labor market in Ukraine. Specifically, our findings evidence that destructive military shocks adversely affected the number of employees hired, productivity, and wages paid in the corporate sector. We emphasize that the war effects are heterogeneous across firm size and labor intensity and depend on external debt and bank financing. The results obtained have considerable policy implications, making them valuable to both researchers and policymakers. |
| Keywords: | Labor market; War; employment; productivity; wages; Ukraine |
| JEL: | H56 J21 J23 J31 O12 |
| Date: | 2026–02–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp03-2026 |
| By: | Lüpnitz, Jonas |
| Abstract: | This working paper investigates the tension between market forces and welfare policies by applying Karl Polanyi's "double movement" study to pre- and posttransformation Poland. The analysis aims at providing a comprehensive perspective on how poverty relief policies impacted and have been impacted by social, economic and political changes. Under socialism, the centralised welfare system promoted egalitarianism but failed to efficiently alleviate poverty. Solidarno´s´c, acting as a Polanyian countermovement, turned against the lack of adequate welfare policies. After the transition to capitalism the neoliberal shock therapy with its subsequent retrenchment increased inequality and, hence, poverty remained a substantial issue. Strikes and the electoral success of right-wing populism are analysed as a Polanyian countermovement advocating stronger social protection. The findings highlight how Polish history has been affected by a close interaction between Polanyian counter movements and expanding market forces that were not adequately met by poverty relief policies. |
| Keywords: | Marxism, Poverty Distribution, Welfare Effects, Economic History, Political Economy, Transition Economies, Former Socialist States |
| JEL: | B24 D33 I32 I38 N34 P16 P2 P36 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ipewps:336777 |
| By: | Nolke, Andreas; Schnyder, Gerhard; Sallai, Dorottya; Kinderman, Daniel |
| Abstract: | The treatment of foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) by populist right-wing governments presents a puzzle: At times, these governments support, at times they take aggressive action against foreign MNEs. Allegorically speaking, rather than using their one hundred hands to slay the Titans like the Centimanes of Greek mythology, right-wing populist governments seem to use fifty hands of the state to support and fifty others to handicap foreign MNEs. How can we explain the ambiguity of populist international business policy adopted by governments that adhere to economically nationalist rhetoric, ideologies, and goals? Our article contributes to these debates by theorising the factors that determine right-wing populist governments’ multi-handed approach to MNEs. We empirically discuss these factors based on a mixed methods design by comparing host country cases (Hungary, Poland), home country cases (China/Russia vs. Western countries), and industry cases (finance, manufacturing). We demonstrate that the common denominator of the multi-handed approach by right-wing populist governments is their desire to decrease the presence of foreign multinationals in politically valuable sectors, but that this desire is tempered by political and economic restrictions, notably including their electoral fragility, the need for technology transfer, and limited alternative sources of foreign direct investment (FDI). |
| Keywords: | East Central Europe; right-wing populism; economic policy; foreign direct investment; multinational enterprises |
| JEL: | L81 |
| Date: | 2026–02–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137314 |
| By: | Nebiler, Metin; Park, Kyunglin |
| Abstract: | Digital skills are becoming increasingly more important in the labor market as demand for them is increasing in all sectors. This paper explores the determinants of digital skill acquisition and estimates the impact of digital skills on wages in developing countries by using the latest round of the Life in Transition Survey from 30 countries in the Europe and Central Asia region. The results show that acquisition of digital skills is correlated with individual characteristics including age, education, and gender but also with household characteristics such as household income, place of residence, and parents’ educational attainment. These disparities translate directly into labor market outcomes: individuals with advanced digital skills earn, on average, 18.9 percent higher wages than those without such skills, with substantial heterogeneity within and between regions. The wage premium for high digital skills is higher in Central Asia, the South Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe. Moreover, the results show that larger firms offer significantly higher premiums for digital skills. |
| Date: | 2026–02–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11308 |
| By: | Tamilina, Larysa |
| Abstract: | Social trust constitutes a central component of social cohesion, a key determinant of economic development, and a foundational element of stable and effective democratic systems. Exposure to violence can undermine trust by disrupting collective cooperation and altering the established patterns of social interaction. This study uses the ongoing Russian–Ukrainian war to explore how social trust changes during conflict, while distinguishing between two primary influences – ideological and experiential. The former are defined as individuals’ alignment with wartime ideologies. The latter are limited to perceived deteriorations in personal safety and mental health caused by experiences of violence. The analysis is based on structural equation modelling, using data collected from 1, 224 respondents through an online survey conducted in 2024. The findings show that experiential influences erode trust not only directly but also indirectly, mainly through reduced confidence in state institutions. Ideological influences provide a partial buffer against these negative consequences, insufficient, however, to offset them. As a result, the net effect of the war on social trust remains negative and sizeable among Ukrainians. |
| Keywords: | Conflict, ideological mobilization, social trust, structural equation modelling, Ukraine. |
| JEL: | C01 D74 Z10 |
| Date: | 2025–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127475 |
| By: | Costa-Font, Joan; Nicińska, Anna |
| Abstract: | Education systems serve various purposes, including the enhancement of later‐life health, though effects can differ by sociopolitical regime. This paper examines the effect of communist education, which exposed children to a distinct curriculum and ideological content, on later‐life health. We exploit a novel dataset that collects information on compulsory education reforms in several European countries, with different cohorts exposed and unexposed to Soviet communist education. Using a difference‐in‐differences (DiD) design, we show that while the extension of compulsory education improved some relevant measures of health, communist education encompassed an additional health‐enhancing effect. We document that the effect remains robust when using staggered DiD approaches and various robustness tests, and that it is explained by the priority given to physical education in the school curricula, together with an increased likelihood of marriage. |
| Keywords: | communist education; health education gradient; later-life health; physical activity; Europe; Soviet communism |
| JEL: | I18 P36 |
| Date: | 2026–02–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130480 |
| By: | Glathoud, Romain |
| Abstract: | This study aims to identify strategies for the development of agritourism in the Gauja bioregion (surrounding the national park of the same name, in Latvia), in order to better valorize both economically and socially the local productions, particularly through short supply chains, in the face of the decline of typical agriculture threatened by land pressure, lack of generational renewal, dependence on imported inputs, and market difficulties. This study is an exploratory study during which 27 stakeholders of the bioregional agritourism system were interviewed through hybrid interviews. These interviews made it possible to identify an assortment of barriers and drivers that manifest at several levels: at the level of the agritourism system in general, at the level of intra-bioregional dynamics, and at the level of the local product itself. These barriers and drivers, combined with the expectations of the interviewed stakeholders, led to the proposal of 3 strategies to develop this agritourism: clearly defining the agritourism system to make it an attractive and coherent tourist destination, establishing governance to structure this system and encourage the development of initiatives, and taking into account sustainability constraints to ensure the long-term continuation of this agritourism system. |
| Date: | 2025–09–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:nf3re_v1 |
| By: | Cocioc, Paul |
| Abstract: | Starting from the widely held idea in Romanian football (and not only) that a higher budget is almost the only requirement for better performance for a club, our study investigates the existence and intensity of such a correlation. At the same time, we sought to deepen the correlations within club expenditures, through those related to the player roster as an expression of its value, where we expect a to see a higher intensity in relation to sports results. Due to data availability considerations, the analysis is limited to the latest seasons of the domestic championship. The approach is based on rank correlation, and the tools used are Kendall’s coefficient and Spearman’s coefficient. The results obtained con�irm expectations regarding the existence of a direct relationship between the amounts spent by a club and its position in the rankings, but the intensity of this correlation is signi�icantly lower than expected, at least at the level of total expenditures. |
| Keywords: | budget, sport performance, rank correlation |
| JEL: | C12 L83 M19 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126947 |
| By: | Ibrahimov, Oktay |
| Abstract: | AI is emerging as a general-purpose infrastructure whose technical capabilities and governance institutions co-evolve. Societies are increasingly embedding algorithmic decision support across public administration, resource allocation, and production. This produces divergence in outcomes: effective integration yields compounding improvements in efficiency and productivity; ineffective integration risks persistent capability gaps. This paper develops the Societal Intelligence Thresholds (SINT) framework, a diagnostic model that explains when AI systems—and the AI-intensive digital infrastructures surrounding them—become functionally non-optional under sustained human governance. Building on companion studies of Cultural–Technological Synergy (CTS), which conceptualizes culture as adaptive coordination infrastructure, and AI as Public Infrastructure (AIPI), which defines measurable infrastructural maturity through the Infrastructure Status Index (ISI), this paper isolates the missing transitional layer: the Policy–Demand equilibrium, modulated by AI-readiness, that governs AI threshold dynamics. SINT formalizes how policy intent, societal demand, and AI-readiness interact to determine the pace of threshold crossing and the persistence of infrastructural dependence. Societies oscillate across four characteristic quadrants—Dormant Drift, Mandate Compliance, Grassroots Pull, and Convergent Momentum—each associated with distinct fragility patterns. Cultural architectures (heritage adaptability, cross-civilizational competence, innovation ethos, strategic determination) modulate these trajectories by influencing legitimacy, trust, and learning capacity. An interpretive application to Azerbaijan (2012–2025) illustrates pre-threshold alignment and AI-readiness asymmetries typical of transitional economies. The paper concludes with a typology of AI thresholds, a sequencing model for policy interventions, and a research agenda for comparative validation. Recognizing threshold mechanics clarifies that sustainable AI integration depends less on technology supply than on governing how societies build, coordinate, and institutionalize AI capacity—the collective ability to turn technological possibility into stable, legitimate infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | Societal Intelligence Thresholds; policy–demand dynamics; cultural drivers; AI and society; human–AI collaboration; Azerbaijan |
| JEL: | O1 O15 O3 O33 O35 |
| Date: | 2025–12–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127366 |