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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Sona Siva (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic & Institute of Information Theory and Automation, Czech Academy of Sciences); Jaromir Baxa (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of the full-scale Russian invasion on regional banking activity in Ukraine, focusing on differences across regions directly affected by military operations, neighboring areas, and non-occupied regions. Using a dynamic difference-in-differences approach with multiple treatments, we find that war-induced disruptions extend beyond directly occupied regions, significantly influencing lending and deposit behavior also in regions neighboring the frontline. Lending in long-term occupied regions experienced the most severe decline, while short-term occupied areas and Kyiv also saw substantial reductions over time. Notably, the lending contraction in the regions neighboring occupied areas followed a pattern similar to that in the temporarily occupied regions, highlighting significant spillover effects. The shift toward short-term lending intensified in all affected regions, reflecting heightened financial uncertainty. The war also led to a widening of interest rate spreads, particularly in Kyiv and shortterm occupied areas, signaling elevated credit risk. Although deposits grew, lending remained limited after liberation, highlighting ongoing economic stagnation and constraint created by the partial dollarisation of the economy. These findings have crucial implications for post-war recovery policies, emphasizing the need for targeted financial support that should be extended beyond the regions directly involved in a war. |
| Keywords: | banking activity, lending, deposits, war |
| JEL: | G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2025_26 |
| By: | Olivier De Jonghe (National Bank of Belgium); Konstantīns Benkovskis (Latvijas Banka); Karolis Bielskis (Bank of Lithuania); Diana Bonfim (Banco de Portugal, Católica Lisbon School of Business & Economics); Margherita Bottero (Banca d’Italia); Tamás Briglevics (Central Bank of Hungary); Martin Cesnak (National Bank of Slovakia); Mantas Dirma (Bank of Lithuania); Marina Emiris (National Bank of Belgium); Pálma Filep-Mosberger (Central Bank of Hungary); Valentin Jouvanceau (Bank of Lithuania); Nicholas Kaiser (Central Bank of Ireland); Dmitry Khametshin (Banco de España); Viola M. Grolmusz (Central Bank of Hungary); Laura Moretti (Central Bank of Ireland); Artūrs Jānis Nikitins (Latvijas Banka); Angelo Nunnari (Banca d’Italia); Maria Rodriguez Moreno (Banco de España); Elitsa Stefanova (European Central Bank); Lajos Tamás Szabó (Central Bank of Hungary); Kārlis Vilerts (Latvijas Banka); Sujiao Emma Zhao (Banco de Portugal, Católica Lisbon School of Business & Economics) |
| Abstract: | We study heterogeneity in households’ credit across nine European countries (Belgium, Spain, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, and Slovakia) during 2022-2024 using granular credit register data. We first document substantial between- and within-country variation in mortgage and consumer lending by borrower age, loan maturity, and interest rate fixation. We then quantify the pass-through of the ECB’s recent tightening cycle to household borrowing costs and assess its heterogeneous impact across households. Pass-through is nearly complete for mortgages (around 0.9) but considerably weaker for consumer credit (around 0.4). While mortgage pass-through is relatively homogeneous across countries, consumer credit shows pronounced cross-country differences that cannot be explained by borrower or loan characteristics. Younger households face stronger mortgage pass-through but weaker consumer credit pass-through relative to older borrowers, and longer maturities are associated with stronger pass-through in both credit markets. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy transmission; household borrowing; credit registers; interest rate pass through; cross-country heterogeneity. |
| JEL: | E52 G21 D14 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:202511-485 |
| By: | Andrzej Torój; Joanna Bęza-Bojanowska; Rafał Chmura; Kareem Ismail; Dominika Kroschel; Mr. Waikei Raphael Lam; Agnieszka Szczypińska; Bartłomiej Wiśnicki |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the properties of Poland’s Stabilizing Expenditure Rule (SER) in the context of economic governance reform in the EU. The analysis uses a granular macroeconometric model (Chmura et al., 2024) that incorporates heterogeneous fiscal multipliers across expenditure items and endogenous tax bases. This novelty supports emprically-grounded simulations to analyze the impact of adverse shocks on output, fiscal balances, and debt dynamics, including through the binding expenditure rules and potential shifts in the composition of expenditures. Our results show that the SER generally ensures lower fiscal deficits (and debt path) than policies that only target the compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) thresholds. This is because of the inherent corrective mechanism built in the SER that requires a tightening of fiscal stance when rules are breached. The SER is shown to have counter-cyclical properties, although the extent depends also on the parameters in the correction mechanism. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Rules; Debt Sustainability; Stabilizing Expenditure Rule; Poland; Econometric Model |
| Date: | 2025–11–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/238 |
| By: | Mongelli Ignazio (European Commission - JRC); Avila Uribe Antonio (European Commission - JRC); Maes Joachim; Duran Laguna Jorge; Feyen Luc (European Commission - JRC); Ciscar Martinez Juan Carlos (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | This report examines the magnitude and geography of the economic consequences of climate risks in European NUTS3 regions using a new regional economic growth model that accounts for spatial spillover effects. The assessment, based on the JRC PESETA V project, focuses on a 2⁰C scenario of global warming by 2050 and considers seven climate impact categories: labor productivity, droughts, coastal flooding, river flooding, storms, wildfires and transport infrastructure. By 2050, the 2°C global warming scenario could result in an average 0.7% EU GDP loss (0.8% EU consumption loss), accumulating to an undiscounted €2.5 trillion in GDP losses, highlighting a significant economic burden. The results also indicate that there is a large spatial asymmetry in climate risks, affecting more regions in Southern and Eastern European countries (Greece, Cyprus, Croatia, Portugal, Spain and Italy). Northern European regions are more vulnerable to river and coastal flooding, while Southern and Eastern European regions are disproportionately affected by productivity losses, droughts and coastal flooding. The current allocation of European cohesion funds partially mitigates this asymmetric pattern of climate risks. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc143093 |
| By: | David Kurjak (Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effects of selected policy decisions and energy supply disruptions on electricity prices from 2015 to 2025. Announcements elicited modest, transitory movements. Realized disruptions such as armed conflict or interruptions to gas pipeline flows generated sharp and persistent price increases. Results indicate that electricity prices are highly sensitive to gas and carbon markets. These findings provide new evidence on the drivers of electricity pricing in integrated European markets. |
| Keywords: | electricity prices, event study, energy policy, carbon costs, natural gas prices, market integration |
| JEL: | C32 G14 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:men:wpaper:106_2025 |
| By: | Magorzata Rymarzak |
| Abstract: | Campus managers need to balance the competing claims of different stakeholders of higher education institutions (HEIs). Previous studies in general management have indicated that the decision-making process is highly related to stakeholders’ attributes (power, legitimacy and urgency). However, such studies have not yet been conducted in the field of campus management. Therefore, this paper aims to identify the importance of key stakeholders and relevant key performance indicators (KPIs) that can be considered in campus management to support their goals. To explore the underlying importance of campus stakeholders, a theory on stakeholder silence and a questionnaire survey among Polish public HEIs were employed. In turn, to identify various KPIs, the content analysis of institutions’ strategies was conducted. Empirical research suggests that in Polish public HEIs, authorities and academic staff continue to be regarded as the most important stakeholders. This contrasts with the growing market-oriented approach seen in higher education globally. Moreover, the KPIs presented in HEIs' strategies are predominantly result-oriented and rarely user-centric (which have begun to be perceived as the most significant with respect to building performance). |
| Keywords: | Campus Management; higher education institutions; Key performance Indicators; Stakeholders |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_211 |
| By: | Marangé, Céline (Ed.); Stewart, Susan (Ed.) |
| Abstract: | This joint study by the SWP and the Institute for Strategic Research (IRSEM, Paris) starts from the premise that Ukraine's and Russia's visions of European security are fundamentally incompatible. Ukraine aims to join existing Western structures and contribute to their reinforcement, whereas Russia intends to gain control of Ukraine and undermine the foundations of the European and transatlantic security architecture. A vast majority of European actors see Russia as a serious threat to European security and democracy. This means that Europe's main external focus will be on deterring and defending itself from Russia in at least the medium term. A critical mass of actors views NATO and the EU as the principal pillars of security in Europe. They intend to find ways to strengthen both organisations while ensuring that the United States remains involved in protecting European security. A large consensus has emerged around consolidating a "European pillar of NATO". At the same time, the EU has managed to become a recognised and influential actor in the field of European security with surprising rapidity. Minilateral and ad hoc formats such as the "Nordic-Baltic 8" and the "Coalition of the Willing" are gaining traction, in part because they allow the consensus requirements of larger organisations to be circumvented, thus providing more flexibility. There is broad agreement on continuing Ukraine's integration into both the EU and NATO. However, not only the degree of commitment to Kyiv, but also the tempo of Europe's actions will determine the extent to which Ukraine becomes part of the European security order. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swprps:331859 |
| By: | Tho, Le Canh Bich; Umetsu, Chieko |
| Abstract: | The Vietnamese government has developed a strategy for rice production with the goal of reducing export volumes and concentrating on the quality of aromatic and high-quality rice. There are approximately 1 million hectares of aromatic paddy cultivation in the Mekong Delta (MKD) provinces each year, which accounts for about 25% of the total paddy area. Understanding the overall efficiency of aromatic rice in VMKD becomes essential due to the potential development of both domestic and export markets for aromatic rice. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to examine how MKD's farmers produce aromatic rice and determine the factors determining its production efficiency. Primary data were collected through a survey of 247 aromatic rice cultivators. The non-radial data envelopment analysis, a slack-based measure (SBM), was employed to consider the overall efficiency and agrochemical overutilization of each rice farm. In general, aromatic rice production in the MKD achieved an overall efficiency of 63%. In this regard, the RVT variety has the highest SBM score at 0.72, while Jasmine 85 has the lowest SBM score at 0.61. The factors that contribute to household efficiency include obtaining a larger farm size, participating in cooperatives, and practicing eco friendly farming. In addition, aromatic rice producers still use much more than the required amount of inputs for production. The aromatic rice sector should follow climate-smart agricultural practices in order to comply with export standards. This includes a significant reduction in the use of seeds, agrochemicals, and water. |
| Keywords: | Farm Management, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344329 |
| By: | Michal Skara (Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic); Ladislava Issever Grochova (Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between household debt and economic output in the context of income inequality, emphasizing the role of fiscal redistribution through personal taxes and social transfers. Based on an unbalanced panel dataset of 36 countries covering the period 1980–2023, the study employs panel local projection (LP) methods to analyze the dynamic effects of household debt on GDP growth, assessing how this effect is influenced by the degree of income redistribution achieved through the tax system and transfers. While existing research shows that household debt may initially stimulate economic activity, it constrains consumption and exacerbates downturns in the medium run, especially in economies with high inequality. The results suggest that fiscal redistribution dampens the negative effects of household debt associated with inequality, with the strongest mitigating impact observed at the seventh horizon after a debt shock, when debt-service burdens peak. The findings underline the importance of an effective system of fiscal redistribution – encompassing both personal taxes and transfers – in reducing the macroeconomic costs of household indebtedness and contributing to the debate on sustainable growth and inequality reduction. |
| Keywords: | Income inequality, direct taxes, GDP growth, household debt |
| JEL: | D14 D31 E21 E62 H24 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:men:wpaper:108_2025 |
| By: | Papathanasopoulos, Athanasios; Varoutas, Dimitris |
| Abstract: | This study evaluated the regulatory efficiency and performance of Over-the-Top (OTT) streaming platforms across ten European countries—France, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands, UK, Norway, Serbia, Greece, Italy, and Turkey—using a two-stage Network Data Envelopment Analysis (NDEA) framework. It also compared Europe to a global dataset that included countries from North America, South America, the Middle East & North Africa, and Asia-Pacific. The results from Stage revealed that European countries with modernized legislation, such as the UK, Germany, and France, demonstrated superior regulatory efficiency compared to those with outdated frameworks, such as Serbia. This highlighted the importance of up-to-date regulations, including net neutrality and data protection policies like GDPR, in fostering a strong regulatory environment. In Stage and the overall efficiency rankings (θoverall), the UK emerged as the top performer in Europe with a score of 0.5454, driven by its coherent regulatory framework, effective taxation policies, and robust market competition. Germany (0.5171) and Italy (0.4449) followed, benefiting from structured regulations and diverse OTT offerings. However, countries like Serbia (0.0484), Greece (0.1527), Ireland (0.1243) and the Netherlands (0.1710) lagged, reflecting inconsistencies in translating regulatory strengths into market success. Globally, Europe achieved a mean regulatory efficiency score of 0.7823, surpassing other regions in Stage 1 except North America, but its overall efficiency (θoverall = 0.3059) trailed North America (0.5631) and Asia-Pacific (0.3746). Europe's fragmented regulatory frameworks across countries and inconsistent implementation of taxation of international OTT platforms and OTT-specific policies hindered its ability to achieve unified market performance, despite its regulatory strengths. The findings underscored the need for European countries to adopt cohesive taxation frameworks for international streaming platforms, modernized OTT-specific regulations, and a more integrated regulatory approach to enhance the overall market efficiency. |
| Keywords: | OTT, OTT regulation, Network DEA, EU, Europe, Media policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itse25:331297 |
| By: | Anahit Poghosyan (Central Bank of Armenia); Gevorg Minasyan (Central Bank of Armenia) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether financial behaviour, defined through credit history and current debt burden, can improve the modelling of automobile accident risk. Drawing on rich administrative data from Armenia's compulsory motor third party liability insurance system (CMTPL) combined with credit registry records, the study finds that weaker repayment histories are strongly associated with higher accident probabilities and larger claim amounts, potentially reflecting core behavioural traits that carry over into driving behaviour. Indicators of short-run financial strain add further explanatory power by capturing situational pressures not reflected in long-run patterns, with accident risk peaking when adverse credit histories coincide with elevated financial burden. These relationships hold across a range of empirical approaches - including negative binomial models and a monthly driver-level panel that accounts for congestion, weather, and other time-specific conditions - and they remain robust once driver income is included. In the panel estimates, both between-driver and within-driver components remain significant, indicating that even for the same individual, a deterioration in credit history or an increase in financial burden corresponds to a material rise in accident risk. In terms of distributional effects, Tweedie-based simulations show that gains in pricing accuracy come with disproportionate premium increases for financially vulnerable households, highlighting a central efficiency-equity trade-dilemma for regulators. |
| Keywords: | Credit History, Financial Distress, Driving Risk, Claim Severity, Credit-Based Underwriting |
| JEL: | G22 D14 D12 C23 C25 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ara:wpaper:wp-2025-03 |
| By: | Heibel, Jakob; Dominy, Jonas; Kapeller, Jakob |
| Abstract: | East Asia exhibits remarkable economic heterogeneity, yet debates on the region's development have centered predominantly on the most successful cases, such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, all examples of the so-called "developmental state" model, or China's economic upswing. Building on the notion that economic development follows qualitatively different trajectories that give rise to structurally distinct development models across countries, this paper employs a data-driven approach based on a multidimensional cluster analysis of 15 East Asian economies across 12 macroeconomic dimensions for the period 2000-2019 to develop a concise typology of development models in East Asia. In doing so, we find evidence for the presence of four different development models in East Asia: aside from the canonical developmental states (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan), we identify emerging economies (China, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines), financial hubs (Hong Kong, Singapore), and peripheral countries (Indonesia, Mongolia, Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia). Our results indicate that findings from past studies focusing on specific cases - such as the countries associated with developmental state model or the rise of China - can be embedded in a more general account that also considers the distinct characteristics and complementary characters of alternative development models present in the same region. |
| Keywords: | Development models, developmental state, cluster analysis, path dependence, East Asia |
| JEL: | B5 C38 F63 N15 O10 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifsowp:331892 |