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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Lesya Kolinets; Vygintas Gontis |
| Abstract: | The integration of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries into the European Economic Area serves as a valuable experiment for the regional economic development theory. The long-lasting convergence of these economies with more advanced Western Europe exhibits a few standard features and varying policies implemented. Even the Baltic countries, which started from very similar starting positions, demonstrate their unique trajectories of development. We employ a panel data regression model that allows coefficients to vary over time to compare the contributions of a few macroeconomic factors to the GDP growth of CEE countries. In particular, we regress the annual change of GDP per capita in PPP terms as a function of achieved GDP, price, trade, investment, and debt levels. Time-varying common slope coefficients in this approach describe the external economic environment in which countries implement their own policies. The panel consists of 11 Central and Eastern European countries (Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, and Slovakia), which have been observed annually from 1995 to 2024. While the main selected factors of this investigation contribute to economic growth, in agreement with previous findings, the role of private debt appears vital in determining the pace of economic growth. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.04211 |
| By: | Weiss, Michael |
| Abstract: | The article examines legislative turnover rates of MPs in 11 Central and Eastern European countries using an original dataset of turnover rates and compares them to turnover rates in other democracies. Despite turnover rates being higher than in Western Europe, there are large differences between individual countries and an overall declining trend of turnover rates. Utilising multilevel hierarchical regression models, five most commonly used legislative turnover determinants are tested in regards of their effects on turnover rates. The analysis shows that the type of electoral system, term length, change in chamber size and electoral volatility all contribute to legislative turnover. |
| Date: | 2025–09–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2kdsh_v1 |
| By: | Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Ergasheva, Tanzila |
| Abstract: | Nutrition-sensitive agricultural diversification continues to receive interest among developing country stakeholders as a viable option for achieving dual goals of poverty reduction and food/nutrition security improvements. Assessing the effectiveness of this strategy is also essential in countries like Tajikistan. We attempt to enrich the evidence base in this regard. We assess the linkages between household-level agricultural diversification and dietary diversity (both household- and individual-levels) using unique panel samples of households and individual women of reproductive ages in the Khatlon province. Using difference-in-difference propensity-score methods and panel fixed-effects instrumental variable regressions, we show that higher agricultural diversification together with greater overall production per worker and land at the household level leads to higher dietary diversity, particularly in areas with poor food market access. Typology analyses and crop-specific analyses suggest that vegetables, fruits, legumes/nuts/seeds, dairy products and eggs are particularly important commodities for which a farmer’s own production contributes to dietary diversity improvement. Furthermore, decomposition exercises within the subsistence farming framework suggest that nutritional returns and costs of agricultural diversification vary across households, and expected nutritional returns may be partly driving the adoption of agricultural diversification. In other words, households’ decisions to diversify agriculture may be partly driven by potential nutritional benefits associated with enhanced direct on-farm access to diverse food items rather than farm income growth alone. Our findings underscore the importance of supporting household farm diversification in Tajikistan to support improved nutrition intake, especially among those living in remote areas. In a low-income setting with limited local employment opportunities that is vulnerable to a wide range of external shocks, this will likely continue to be one of the most straightforward and realistic paths to improving household’s nutrition resilience. |
| Keywords: | dietary diversity; food security; nutrition; propensity score matching; agriculture; modelling; Tajikistan; Asia; Central Asia |
| Date: | 2024–04–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:140750 |
| By: | Mr. Julien Acalin; Mr. Leonardo Martinez; Mr. Francisco Roch |
| Abstract: | Both policy advice and economic theory advocate for fiscal rules with a clear anchor that reflects fiscal risk and a robust correction mechanism that implements a more ambitious fiscal consolidation when fiscal risk is higher. However, among more than 120 countries with fiscal rules, only six are identified as implementing such robust correction mechanisms: Armenia, Costa Rica, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovakia. Using synthetic control methods and dynamic panel regressions, this paper finds that the introduction of fiscal rules with robust correction mechanisms has been particularly effective in these countries, triggering a persistent median spread reduction of about 25 percent, or 75 basis points, over one year. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Rules; Fiscal Risk; Sovereign Spreads; Robust Correction Mechanisms |
| Date: | 2025–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/195 |
| By: | Dzhamilya Nigmatulina; Konstantin Egorov; Alexey Makarin; Vasily Korovkin |
| Abstract: | How effective are trade sanctions? We examine the economic impact of the unprecedented sanc- tions imposed on Russia following February 2022, when Western countries banned exports ac- counting for 36% of Russia's prewar import value. Combining novel, manually collected records of these sanctions with Russian customs data, firm balance sheets, domestic railway shipments, and government procurement contracts, we provide the most comprehensive analysis of the economic impact of trade sanctions on a target country to date. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that imports of sanctioned country-product varieties into Russia saw a sharp 62% decline following the war's onset. While we see substantial rerouting through third countries, it did not fully offset the direct import losses: total imports of sanctioned products fell by 27%. Firms that had relied on soon-to-be-sanctioned imports experienced a 14% decline in output, also observed in manufacturing, technology, and firms linked to military supply chains. Affected firms also saw reduced government procurement sales and incurred additional losses when their buyers or suppliers were exposed to sanctions. Overall, our findings suggest that, contrary to widespread claims of ineffectiveness, import sanctions on Russia had far-reaching adverse effects. |
| Keywords: | geopolitics, international trade, Russia-Ukraine war, sanctions |
| JEL: | D22 D74 F14 F51 H56 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1516 |
| By: | Yana Kostiuk (University of Pavia); Paola Cerchiello (University of Pavia); Arianna Agosto (University of Pavia) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyse the immediate market response of the coal industry to the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. We apply the event study methodology to identify the impact of the war on the coal firms’ share prices. Subsequently, we use a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Auto Regressive (TVP-VAR) approach to analyse changes in market interconnectedness. The results reveal significant cumulative average abnormal returns (CAARs) for the Titans sub-sample, indicating that coal-related firms headquartered in the United States, the UK, Canada, and Australia outperformed the stock market on a cumulative basis after the outbreak of the war. Our findings also show that the onset of the Russo-Ukrainian war resulted in an approximately 11% increase in average interconnectedness among the defined groups and led to shifts in their roles as transmitters and receivers. Specifically, while Europe and the Titans transitioned from net transmitters to net receivers, East Asia became a major net transmitter of shock. |
| Keywords: | Russo-Ukrainian war, Event study, Coal Markets |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pav:demwpp:demwp0229 |
| By: | Emiel Sanders; Rudi Vander Vennet (-) |
| Abstract: | How does geopolitical risk affect banks and their lending behavior? Using the attack of Russia on Ukraine in February 2022 as an unanticipated geopolitical risk event and exploiting the syndicated loan exposures of European banks, we document that Russia-exposed banks experience a more pronounced increase of their cost of equity compared to banks with limited Russian lending exposure. In a difference-in-differences setup, we find that Russia-exposed banks significantly curtail their syndicated lending and that this contraction is most pronounced for lending to new borrowers and unsecured loans. We find no relationship between (changes in) the cost of equity of banks and their credit supply. We conclude that geopolitical risk shocks affect banks’ risk profiles and may cause a contraction in lending. Hence, geopolitical risk is a relevant concern for bank supervisors. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitical risk; cost of equity; syndicated lending |
| JEL: | E51 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:25/1122 |
| By: | Zoltan Bartha |
| Abstract: | Hungary's convergence to the developed western economies have been much slower than initially expected. Applying the FOI model, this study investigates whether there were any changes in the convergence process during the second decade of the 21st century. It is found that the future (influencing the long-term competitiveness of the economy), and inside (determining the current well-being of the country) potential of the Hungarian economy did not improve at all compared to the 34 countries that were OECD members in 2010. Hungary's position is in fact really bad, it is ranked 33rd in both areas. The country does somewhat better in the outside potential (characterising the world market position), prompting that Hungary follows a growth model that is focused on external resources. This feature is not new, however: the same development model patterns were detected in 2010, too. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.02366 |
| By: | Davit Gondauri |
| Abstract: | Inflation forecasting is a core socio-economic challenge in modern macroeconomic modeling, especially when cyclical, structural, and shock factors act simultaneously. Traditional systems such as FPAS and ARIMA often struggle with cyclical asymmetry and unexpected fluctuations. This study proposes a hybrid framework (FPAS + $\zeta$) that integrates a structural macro model (FPAS) with cyclical components derived from the Riemann zeta function $\zeta(1/2 + i t)$. Using Georgia's macro data (2005-2024), a nonlinear argument $t$ is constructed from core variables (e.g., GDP, M3, policy rate), and the hybrid forecast is calibrated by minimizing RMSE via a modulation coefficient $\alpha$. Fourier-based spectral analysis and a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) are employed for cycle/phase identification, and a multi-criteria AHP-TOPSIS scheme compares FPAS, FPAS + $\zeta$, and ARIMA. Results show lower RMSE and superior cyclical responsiveness for FPAS + $\zeta$, along with early-warning capability for shocks and regime shifts, indicating practical value for policy institutions. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.02966 |
| By: | Dagiene, Eleonora (Mykolas Romeris University); Aibar, Eduard |
| Abstract: | National research assessment policies, designed to boost international competitiveness, have intensified “publish or perish” pressures and reshaped the global academic publishing landscape. However, the impact of these pressures on the domestic publishing infrastructures of semi-peripheral nations remains underexplored. This paper investigates how a nation’s domestic publishing infrastructure shapes whether new, high-volume open-access publishing models function as a portfolio addition or a systemic substitute. Using a comparative mixed-methods analysis of Spain and Lithuania, we combine bibliometric data from the Web of Science (2004–2024) with 28 semi-structured interviews with researchers. The findings reveal two divergent, rational strategies. In Spain, a resilient domestic publishing infrastructure, accommodated by a flexible evaluation system, allowed researchers to adopt new publishers as a pragmatic portfolio addition to an already diverse set of options. In stark contrast, Lithuanian research assessment policies actively marginalised domestic journals, creating acute strain on the country’s publishing ecosystem. Researchers in Lithuania thus adopted these same new publishing models as a systemic substitute and a survival measure. We conclude that control over a community-managed domestic publishing infrastructure is a key factor shaping the autonomy of a national academic system. It is this infrastructure that separates a strategy of dependent displacement from one of autonomous coexistence: a crucial lesson for policymakers engaged in global research assessment reforms. |
| Date: | 2025–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ucgzm_v1 |
| By: | Konrad Kuhmann (Latvijas Banka) |
| Abstract: | Bank lending is a key factor in the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy. Using granular loan data on the euro area, I analyze how bank specialization interacts with the effects of monetary policy on credit. I first document that bank lending in the euro area is characterized by a substantial degree of specialization. That is, banks tend to be over-exposed to borrowers in certain industries and of certain size. I also find that higher specialization is generally associated with more favorable lending conditions. Most importantly, banks partly insulate their preferred borrowers from the consequences of monetary policy. In particular, they adjust interest rates and lending relatively less strongly for borrowers from groups in which they specialize. My findings suggest that bank specialization is relevant for the aggregate and distributional consequences of monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | Bank specialization, Bank lending, Monetary policy, AnaCredit |
| JEL: | E51 E52 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ltv:wpaper:202506 |
| By: | Hainmueller, Jens; Marbach, Moritz; Hangartner, Dominik; Harder, Niklas; Vallizadeh, Ehsan |
| Abstract: | Governments continue to face challenges integrating refugees into the local labor market, and many past interventions have shown limited impact. This study examines the Job-Turbo program, a large-scale initiative launched by the German government in 2023 to accelerate employment among refugees—primarily individuals from Ukraine and eight other major countries of origin. Using monthly administrative panel data from Germany’s network of public employment service offices and a difference-in-differences design, we find that the program significantly increased both caseworker–refugee contact and job placements over a 23-month follow-up period. Among Ukrainian refugees, the exit-to-job rate nearly doubled. Effects were broad-based—spanning demographic subgroups, unemployment durations, skill levels, regions, and local labor-market conditions—and concentrated in regular, unsubsidized employment. The program also raised both the rate and share of sustained job placements, consistent with improved match quality. Other refugee groups saw meaningful gains as well, but increases in job placements were concentrated among males and in low-skilled jobs, with only limited effects for females. We detect no negative spillovers for German or other immigrant job seekers, finding no signs of either resource reallocation or displacement. The results offer insights for governments responding to displacement crises. They indicate that intensified job-search assistance---embedded within the early stage of integration and implemented at scale through public employment infrastructure---can meaningfully improve refugees' labor-market outcomes, even amid significant arrivals. |
| Date: | 2025–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:px9ew_v2 |
| By: | Minot, Nicholas; Vos, Rob; Kim, Soonho; Park, Beyeong; Zaki, Sediqa; Mamboundou, Pierre |
| Abstract: | Recent spikes in staple food prices resulting from the invasion of Ukraine have once again highlighted the difficulty faced by low-income countries that rely on imports for a substantial portion of their food supply. To better understand which countries are most affected by higher world food prices, we propose a food import vulnerability index (FIVI). One version of the index describes the vulnerability of each country to higher world prices for each of 15 major staple foods. Another version of the FIVI is a national index, aggregating across the 15 commodities. Both are based on three components, the caloric contribution of the commodity(ies) in the national diet, the dependence on imports, and the level of moderate and severe food insecurity in the country. The values of the FIVI are calculated for 2020, the most recent year for which data are available. The results indicate that countries are most adversely affected by increases in the world price of wheat, rice, and maize, followed by sugar, and vegetable oil. This is because the five commodities listed are both major contributors to the diet in many countries and because countries often depend on imports for a large share of the domestic requirements of these foods. Yemen, Djibouti, and Afghanistan are most vulnerable to increases in world wheat prices, while Liberia, Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau are particularly vulnerable to spikes in rice prices. In the case of maize, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, and Eswatini have the highest vulnerability score. These results should help policymakers and development partners target their efforts to reduce food import vulnerability through policies and programs to strengthen resilience. |
| Keywords: | staple foods; food prices; Ukraine; less favoured areas; vulnerability; food security; imports; price volatility |
| Date: | 2024–03–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:140444 |