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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Hamjediers, Maik (European University Institute) |
| Abstract: | Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked a turning point in European security politics. In this context, the population's willingness to fight is often interpreted as an indicator of societal inclination toward military self-defense and a precondition for strengthening defensive capacities. Yet, causal evidence on what shapes this willingness remains limited, and studies on the effects of Russia's invasion on public attitudes have been largely confined to European countries. I employ Russia's invasion within an unexpected event during survey design to estimate its impact on respondents' willingness to fight for their own country. Drawing on data from the World Values Survey in the Czech Republic and Uruguay, the analysis reveals a significant increase in willingness to fight among Czech respondents -- a country geographically and historically proximate to Russia -- but no comparable effect in Uruguay. These findings offer novel causal evidence that proximate interstate conflict can increase willingness to fight for one's country, which contributes to broader debates on conscription and military security. |
| Date: | 2025–08–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:p6xf4_v1 |
| By: | Dobrotic, Ivana (University of Zagreb); Blum, Sonja; Kaufman, Gayle; Koslowski, Alison; Moss, Peter; Valentova, Marie |
| Abstract: | The International Network on Leave Policies and Research has been producing an annual review of leave policies and related research since 2005 (for earlier reviews, go to the network’s website www.leavenetwork.org). The review covers Maternity, Paternity and Parental leaves; leave to care for sick children and other employment-related measures to support working parents; and early childhood education and care policy. The International Review is based on country notes from each participating country, prepared by members of the network and edited by a team of network members. Each country note follows a standard format: details of different types of leave; the relationship between leave policy and early childhood education and care policy; recent policy developments; information on take-up of leave. The International Review also includes definitions of the main types of leave policies; and cross-country comparisons. These comparative overviews cover: each main type of leave; the relationship between leave and ECEC entitlements; and policy changes and developments since the previous review. We also include a technical appendix. The 2025 International Review covers 52 countries. These are: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Israel, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States of America, Uruguay and Vietnam. Kosovo is a new country note joining the review this year for the first time. The content of the International Review is to the best of our knowledge correct at the time of going to press, but mistakes may occur. If you should have a query or find an error, we would be grateful if you would contact the country note authors as relevant and the editors. We recommend that readers consult the most recent version of the International Review where possible, as we are unable to retrospectively rectify errors. |
| Date: | 2025–09–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5c42d_v2 |
| By: | Zájac, Jan (University of Bristol); Paczos, Wojtek (Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University; Institute of Economics, Polish Academy of Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Using panel data for 92 banks in 11 CEE countries over 2006–2020, we investigate how joining the euro affects bank profitability. Overall the effect is statistically indistinguishable from zero, but in tranquil periods euro membership lowers returns. Higher capital ratios and larger size raise profitability, whereas greater liquidity and loan intensity reduce it. |
| Keywords: | Banks profitability; Euro adoption; Central & Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | F36 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2025/17 |
| By: | Maksym Homeniuk (National Bank of Ukraine) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates Ukraine's inflation attention threshold using a text-based proxy derived from the relative frequency of the word "inflation" in parliamentary speeches. During a relatively stable macroeconomic period between 2017 and 2022, the estimated threshold is approximately 9-10 percent. This finding aligns with results obtained using Google Trends data, where attention increased just prior to inflation reaching double-digit levels. Crucially, the parliamentary proxy also facilitates estimation for another stable period preceding the global financial crisis (2002-2007). The remarkably similar threshold estimates across both stable periods suggest that attention dynamics in Ukraine exhibit structural consistency under non-crisis conditions. These findings underscore the value of parliamentary speech analysis as a robust tool for tracking inflation salience in contexts with limited data availability. |
| Keywords: | inflation; attention; parliamentary speeches; threshold regression; monetary policy |
| JEL: | C82 D83 E31 E52 E71 |
| Date: | 2025–09–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp14-2025 |
| By: | Lesley-Ann Daniels; Frank Borge Wietzke |
| Abstract: | Bellicose theories of state-building suggest that wars enable the emergence of strong states via the mechanism of increased war-time fiscal capacities. We explore the hitherto little-analysed micro-level foundations of this claim. Does the experience of war increase public support for higher taxation? Furthermore, is this support limited to only defensive purposes, or does it extend to other war-related but forward-looking goals like post-war reconstruction and cohesion-building? We implement a survey experiment during the ongoing war in Ukraine to address the above questions. |
| Keywords: | War, Statebuilding, Taxation, Fiscal capacity, Ukraine, Experimental design |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-57 |
| By: | Vîntu, Denis |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the implementation, effectiveness, and challenges of the inflation targeting framework in the Republic of Moldova. It explores the theoretical foundations of inflation targeting, reviews Moldova’s historical transition from high and volatile inflation to a structured monetary policy framework, and examines the National Bank of Moldova's strategies for achieving price stability. Empirical analysis of policy performance, including Taylor Rule estimates and responses to economic shocks, is presented. The study highlights the strengths of inflation targeting, such as enhanced credibility and anchored inflation expectations, while also addressing challenges related to external shocks, structural constraints, and data limitations. Finally, the paper provides perspectives for improving Moldova’s monetary policy framework, emphasizing forecasting, communication, and institutional capacity, thereby contributing to sustainable economic stability and growth. |
| Keywords: | Inflation Targeting, Taylor Rule, Monetary Policy, Republic of Moldova, Central Bank, Price Stability, Emerging Economies, Interest Rate Policy, Macroeconomic Stability, Policy Effectiveness |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 F41 O23 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125839 |
| By: | Agata Galkiewicz |
| Abstract: | Random disturbances such as air pollution may affect cognitive performance, which, particularly in high-stakes settings, may have severe consequences for an individual's productivity and well-being. This paper examines the short-term effects of air pollution on school leaving exam results in Poland. I exploit random variation in air pollution between the days on which exams are held across three consecutive school years. I aim to capture this random variation by including school and time fixed effects. The school-level panel data is drawn from a governmental program where air pollution is continuously measured in the schoolyard. This localized hourly air pollution measure is a unique feature of my study, which increases the precision of the estimated effects. In addition, using distant and aggregated air pollution measures allows me for the comparison of the estimates in space and time. The findings suggest that a one standard deviation increase in the concentration of particulate matter PM2.5 and PM10 decreases students' exam scores by around 0.07-0.08 standard deviations. The magnitude and significance of these results depend on the location and timing of the air pollution readings, indicating the importance of the localized air pollution measure and the distinction between contemporaneous and lingering effects. Further, air pollution effects gradually increase in line with the quantiles of the exam score distribution, suggesting that high-ability students are more affected by the random disturbances caused by air pollution. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.19801 |
| By: | Vîntu, Denis |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the macroeconomic implications of nominal rigidities in a non-Ricardian economy, where households face borrowing constraints and do not fully internalize the government’s intertemporal budget constraint. Departing from the Ricardian equivalence framework, we show that fiscal policy plays a central role in shaping aggregate demand when nominal wages or prices adjust sluggishly. The interaction between sticky prices, liquidity-constrained households, and active fiscal policy generates non-neutral effects of government spending and taxation, amplifying short-run fluctuations. Using a simplified dynamic model, we demonstrate how nominal rigidities magnify fiscal multipliers and alter the transmission of monetary policy, particularly under conditions of limited asset market participation. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for both non-Ricardian behavior and nominal stickiness when evaluating stabilization policy in economies with incomplete financial markets. |
| Keywords: | Nominal rigidity; Price stickiness; Wage rigidity; Sticky prices; Sticky wages; Inflation persistence; Monetary policy transmission; Labor market inflexibility; Menu costs; Contractual rigidity; New Keynesian economics; Phillips curve; Price adjustment; Wage adjustment; Expectations (rational and adaptive); External shocks; Economic fluctuations; Macro stabilization; Small open economy; Moldova economy (or country-specific context) |
| JEL: | E12 E24 E31 E32 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125865 |
| By: | Minh Phuong Nguyen ("Research Group Innovation for Sustainable and Responsible Mining (ISRM), Hanoi University of Mining and Geology, Hanoi, 100000, Vietnam" Author-2-Name: Nga Nguyen Author-2-Workplace-Name: Research Group Innovation for Sustainable and Responsible Mining (ISRM), Hanoi University of Mining and Geology, Hanoi, 100000, Vietnam Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | " Objective - This study analyzes the development of renewable energy in ASEAN and delves into specific promotion instruments for solar energy in Vietnam. Method Cost-benefit analysis was conducted to compare economic benefits with investment and operating costs. Methodology - Vietnam was entering a period of transformation in the field of renewable energy, especially solar energy (installed solar power capacity was 16, 000 MW in 2023, intending to increase to 25, 320 MW in 2030). Compared to ASEAN countries with many similarities in developing this industry, such as Indonesia (solar power capacity was 2, 100 MW in 2023), Vietnam faced an excellent opportunity to surpass. Findings - The results of the study show that government instruments had different levels of influence on various aspects, and the most influential were the FIT tariff (243.75 points) and tax exemption (49.71 points). Novelty - Although solar energy in Vietnam is developing rapidly, it is still necessary to improve and develop reasonable allocation strategies for supporting policies and incentive mechanisms to optimize economic benefits. Type of Paper - Empirical" |
| Keywords: | Policy Instruments, Solar Energy, Renewable Energy, Energy Transition, Sustainable Development, Sustainability Goals, FIT. |
| JEL: | E16 E27 O11 O13 O32 |
| Date: | 2025–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jber257 |
| By: | Zakirov, Bekzod |
| Abstract: | Critical raw materials (CRMs) and rare earth elements (REEs) are emerging as strategic resources driving the global energy transition and digital transformation, with demand projected to rise sharply over the coming decades. This paper examines Uzbekistan’s growing role in the critical minerals economy, analyzing its mineral endowments, policy reforms, and positioning within shifting geopolitical supply chains. It reviews global strategies of major powers, assesses Uzbekistan’s assets, governance challenges, and foreign investment patterns, and identifies risks related to environmental standards and overreliance on single partners. The study argues that Uzbekistan can leverage its resource base to advance green industrialization and economic diversification if it adopts transparent governance, strengthens domestic processing capacity, and pursues a balanced, multipolar partnership strategy. Policy recommendations are offered to integrate the sector into sustainable development objectives and avoid the pitfalls of resource dependency. |
| Keywords: | critical minerals, rare earth elements, Uzbekistan, supply chains, green industrialization, resource governance |
| JEL: | F52 |
| Date: | 2025–08–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125749 |
| By: | Anna Mancini; Bal\'azs Lengyel; Riccardo Di Clemente; Giulio Cimini |
| Abstract: | Recent crises like the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions have exposed vulnerabilities and caused disruptions of supply chains, leading to product shortages, increased costs, and economic instability. This has prompted increasing efforts to assess systemic risk, namely the effects of firm disruptions on entire economies. However, the ability of firms to react to crises by rewiring their supply links has been largely overlooked, limiting our understanding of production networks resilience. Here we study dynamics and determinants of firm-level systemic risk in the Hungarian production network from 2015 to 2022. We use as benchmark a heuristic maximum entropy null model that generates an ensemble of production networks at equilibrium, by preserving the total input (demand) and output (supply) of each firm at the sector level. We show that the fairly stable set of firms with highest systemic risk undergoes a structural change during COVID-19, as those enabling economic exchanges become key players in the economy -- a result which is not reproduced by the null model. Although the empirical systemic risk aligns well with the null value until the onset of the pandemic, it becomes significantly smaller afterwards as the adaptive behavior of firms leads to a more resilient economy. Furthermore, firms' international trade volume (being a subject of disruption) becomes a significant predictor of their systemic risk. However, international links cannot provide an unequivocal explanation for the observed trends, as imports and exports have opposing effects on local systemic risk through the supply and demand channels. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.21426 |