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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Dinarte, Lelys; Gresham, James; Lemos, Renata Freitas; Patrinos, Harry A.; Rodriguez-Ramirez, Rony |
| Abstract: | This paper provides insights into human capital investments during wartime by presenting evidence from three experiments of an online tutoring program for Ukrainian students amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Conducted between early 2023 and mid-2024, the experiments reached nearly 10, 000 students across all regions of Ukraine. The program offered three hours per week of small-group tutoring in math and Ukrainian language over six weeks and used academic and psychosocial tools to address student challenges at different intensities of disruption. Results show that the program led to substantial improvements in learning—up to 0.49 standard deviations in math and 0.40 standard deviations in Ukrainian language—and consistent reductions in stress—up to 0.12 standard deviations. High take-up and engagement rates were observed, and four mechanisms were identified as drivers of impact: structured peer interactions, improved attitudes toward learning, enhanced socio-emotional skills, and increased student investments. A complementary experiment using information nudges to increase parental engagement highlights challenges in promoting parental investments in a conflict setting. The program was cost-effective across all experiments, with benefit-to-cost ratios ranging from 31 to 56, and scalable given its reliance on existing infrastructure and teaching capacity. |
| Date: | 2025–09–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11196 |
| By: | Brainerd, Elizabeth (Brandeis University); Malkova, Olga (University of California, Irvine) |
| Abstract: | Do religious beliefs affect responses to fertility incentives? We examine a 1982 maternity benefits expansion in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in a difference-in-differences framework with similar East European countries as comparisons. To isolate the importance of religion, we compare women who did and did not grow up in religious households when religion was formally outlawed, resulting in similar adult characteristics among women in the Baltics by importance of religion. Maternity benefits increased fertility only among women who grew up in religious families, providing novel evidence that cultural norms transmitted through the family can amplify the effects of public policies. |
| Keywords: | parental leave, family policies, culture, fertility, religion |
| JEL: | J13 J18 P20 Z10 Z12 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18081 |
| By: | Bruno Baránek; Leon Musolff; Vitezslav Titl |
| Abstract: | We develop a method for detecting cartels in multistage auctions. Our approach allows a firm to be collusive when facing members of its cartel yet competitive when facing others. Intuitively, as initial bids are shaded, close initial bids not only imply similar costs but also provide an incentive to undercut. We detect firm pairs that ignore this incentive when facing each other. Our algorithm predicts Ukraine’s Antimonopoly Committee’s sanctions: firm pairs classified as collusive are 8.98 times more likely (standard error 2.65 times) to be sanctioned. It also uncovers additional collusion: 1, 857 collusive firms participate in 15.57% of auctions, increasing costs by 1.95%. |
| Keywords: | public procurement, collusion, online markets |
| JEL: | H57 D44 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12073 |
| By: | Lu Dong (School of Slavonic and East European Studies, London, England) |
| Abstract: | This study employs public choice theory to analyze how the interplay of geopolitical aspirations and domestic interest-group competition shaped economic transition policies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) following the collapse of socialism. Focusing on Poland and Hungary (1989–2004), the research examines how political elites balanced demands for rapid EU and NATO integration against rent-seeking behaviors by domestic actor, such as former nomenklatura networks, emerging oligarchs, and labor unions, during privatization and market liberalization. The study argues that the urgency to “rejoin Europe†geopolitically created perverse incentives, enabling elites to prioritize symbolic compliance with Western institutions over equitable institutional reforms. Findings reveal that privatization schemes often served as tools for consolidating political patronage rather than fostering competitive markets, while fiscal policies accommodated both EU austerity mandates and localized clientelism. This duality produced hybrid economic systems characterized by formal neoliberal frameworks and informal crony capitalist practices. The research challenges narratives of CEE transitions as purely technocratic successes, instead highlighting how public choice dynamics entrenched inequalities that persist in contemporary debates over democratic backsliding and EU cohesion. By integrating the history of economic thought with international relations theory, this work contributes to interdisciplinary debates on the political economy of post-socialist transitions and offers cautionary insights for states navigating geopolitical pressures amid institutional fragility. |
| Keywords: | Public Choice, Post-Socialist Transition, Rent-Seeking Behaviour, Geopolitical Integration |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0508 |
| By: | Adrian Lupusor; Corina Gaibu; Ecaterina Rusu; Marina Soloviova; Stas Madan |
| Abstract: | The report provides an in-depth evaluation of Moldova’s capacity to adapt to crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the energy crisis, and geopolitical tensions resulting from Russia’s war in Ukraine. It examines Moldova’s position as a small, open economy with significant exposure to external shocks, highlighting vulnerabilities in energy imports, trade imbalances, and political stability. Key topics include Moldova’s shift toward European integration, with milestones such as EU candidate status and expanded trade relations, which have helped reduce reliance on Russia. The report analyzes macroeconomic trends, financial sector stability, and energy dependency, identifying progress in institutional reforms and external support mechanisms that have bolstered the economy. However, ongoing challenges remain, such as inflation, fiscal deficits, and the unresolved Transnistria conflict, requiring targeted policy reforms and sustainable strategies for long-term resilience |
| Keywords: | Moldova, economic growth, economic security, energy dependence, foreign trade, financial sector, current account |
| JEL: | O11 O16 O20 |
| Date: | 2025–02–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:report:0510 |
| By: | Marek Dabrowski; Christopher Hartwell; Olga Popova; Jan Hagemejer; Vladimir Otrachshenko |
| Abstract: | The Eastern neighbourhood of the European Union (EU), comprising Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine, has faced persistent economic and geopolitical challenges. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, these nations have grappled with economic transition, political instability, and repeated global crises, including the 2008 financial crash, the 2014–2015 commodity price decline, the COVD-19 pandemic, and the ongoing inflation surge. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has further exacerbated these difficulties, disrupting trade, investment, and energy security while affecting economies across the region. This comprehensive report: Eastern European Economies Amidst Global and Regional Shocks published in series CASE Report analyses the economic impact of these crises, focusing on four key areas: macroeconomic stability, financial sector resilience, external trade and investment, and energy security. While Moldova has been particularly affected by war-related disruptions, Armenia and Georgia have experienced benefits from increased trade and migration inflows from Russia. Additionally, political instability, the rise of authoritarianism in several states, and unresolved territorial disputes continue to shape economic policies and growth prospects. |
| Keywords: | Moldova, economic growth, economic security, energy dependence, foreign trade, financial sector, current account |
| JEL: | O11 O16 O20 |
| Date: | 2025–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:report:0511 |
| By: | Lennert, József; Tóth, Csaba G. |
| Abstract: | A caveat of much of the existing demographic literature is that it decomposes population change into the components of fertility, mortality, and migration, treating ageing merely as a consequence of natural change while neglecting the role of age structure in the observed dynamics. This study applies a scenario-based decomposition approach, using counterfactual scenarios for each factor of population change (fertility, mortality, migration, and age structure) to assess their individual contributions. The 37 NUTS-2 units of the Visegrád Group countries (Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, and Hungary) were selected as units of analysis. The research focused on the origins of regional differences and on the explanatory role of age structure. The results indicate that differences at the regional scale cannot be attributed solely to national-level variation, as cross-border groupings also emerge in the cluster analysis. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that initial age structure constitutes an independent and essential explanatory factor of population heterogeneity, both at the national and regional levels. |
| Date: | 2025–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:vrxud_v1 |
| By: | Oliver Skultety (Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University, Prague) |
| Abstract: | One of the main types of government intervention aimed at fighting the COVID-19 pandemic were the social distancing measures. This article presents a novel approach to examining the relationship between social distancing and workforce composition. The model used is a SIRD model with dynamically optimizing individuals. The model is estimated for each Czech region and calibrated for the 'social distancing measure' so that the model predictions best fit the data. This measure is then compared in a regression with the share of skilled labour in each region. This article finds that a significant correlation between social distancing preferences and workforce composition. |
| Keywords: | SIR, social distancing, Covid-19, workforce composition |
| JEL: | I12 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2025_15 |
| By: | Gregorio Impavido |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the effectiveness of monetary policy in Kazakhstan using a small macro model and identifies alternative plausible economic structures consistent with priors on the sign of responses of macro variables to structural shocks. Monetary policy effectiveness has increased over time. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy effectiveness; SVARs; parametric restrictions; sign restrictions |
| Date: | 2025–08–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/173 |
| By: | Natalia Pozsonyiova (University of Economics in Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovakia) |
| Abstract: | Despite extensive research on labor market programs, there is limited information on the effectiveness of current unemployment schemes targeting disadvantaged job seekers. A literature review reveals that labor market programs are generally viewed positively, with employment services deemed effective in terms of their impact on the unemployed or cost-effectiveness. This study examines the effectiveness of labor market programs implemented in the Slovak Republic from 2019 to 2023. These programs aimed either to create job opportunities directly or to provide counselling services to the long-term unemployed. The analysis utilized data from the Ministry of Labor, Social Affairs and Family, and the Office for Employment and Social Affairs, focusing on unemployed individuals who participated in programs targeting disadvantaged job seekers. Based on propensity score matching, participants in the programs were compared with non-participants during the specified period. The findings indicate that participation in a program does not affect the duration of long-term unemployment, which is primarily influenced by education and residence. However, the selected programs demonstrated a positive impact on participants, particularly in the long term. |
| Keywords: | Active Labor Market Policy, Labor Market Program, Disadvantaged Groups, Unemployment |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0497 |
| By: | Björn Brey; Joanne Haddad; Lamis Kattan |
| Abstract: | State-led repression of minority identities is a well-documented phenomenon, yet its implications for national identity remain understudied. We examine how the Soviet state-induced famine (1932–33) shapes contemporary Ukrainian national identity through vertical (familial) and horizontal (community/state) transmission. Using newly geocoded individual-level data, we find that individuals from high-famine-exposure areas are more likely to identify as Ukrainian. We document that under Soviet rule, family networks preserved identity, while church closures weakened community transmission. After independence, state-led remembrance efforts, revitalized horizontal transmission. Our findings show how repression and remembrance shape identity persistence and reflect the famine’s lasting influence on Ukrainian-Russian relations. |
| Keywords: | political repression, national identity, intergenerational transmission, historical memory, trade, conflict |
| JEL: | D74 N44 P20 P35 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12080 |