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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Mykhailyshyna, Dariia; Zuchowski, David |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of two massive and unexpected inflows of Ukrainians on voting behavior in Poland. The two migration shocks, caused by Russia's aggression against Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, allow us to compare the effects of conflict-induced labor migration and those of refugee inflows. Using an instrumental variable approach, we find that greater exposure to labor migrants reduces support for conservative parties in the short run and subsequently shifts voter preferences toward pro-redistribution parties. We do not find similar effects for refugees, who, unlike temporary labor migrants, had access to social benefits. Exposure to both types of Ukrainian migration leads to a decrease in far-right voting. This effect emerges only after the salience of Ukrainian migrants increases due to the escalation of Russia's aggression and the rise of anti-Ukrainian rhetoric from the Polish far-right. The backlash from Polish voters against the far-right rhetoric is ten times stronger in areas exposed to refugees than to labor migrants. Our results are robust to the use of a number of instruments and several sensitivity checks. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Refugees, Political Economy, Voting, Poland, Ukraine |
| JEL: | D72 F22 J61 P16 R23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1649 |
| By: | Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Sandu, Alexandra |
| Abstract: | In this paper we investigate what determines access to banking in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The research uses different waves of the OeNB Euro Survey – covering over 91, 000 individuals during the period 2012–2020 – and pooled and multilevel logit models to analyse how the interplay of trust in institutions, socio-economic attributes and geographic contexts shapes access to bank accounts, savings deposits and loans across 10 CEE countries. The findings reveal significant disparities in banking inclusion across products: while institutional trust enhances access to current accounts and savings deposits, its impact on loans is weaker. Socio-economic factors and geographical contexts, particularly at the local NUTS3 level, also matter enormously for financial inclusion. National and local economic conditions are key in shaping variations in financial inclusion/exclusion across CEE. |
| Keywords: | banking access; institutional trust; financial inclusion; Central and Eastern Europe; multilevel analysis |
| JEL: | G21 O16 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–07–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128413 |
| By: | Raymond Fisman; Giovanna Marcolongo; Meng Wu |
| Abstract: | We examine the effects of Ukraine’s economic blockade of the anthracite-rich Donbas region, to demonstrate how trade sanctions’ efficacy can be undermined by trade through non-participatory nations. We document that after the blockade was imposed in March 2017, Russia reported a sharp increase in anthracite imports from Ukraine, while Ukraine reported no exports to Russia at all. We interpret this gap in “mirror statistics” as reflecting a shift in Donbas trade through Russia. Concurrently, Ukraine anthracite imports from Russia increased sharply (from near-zero), indicating that some of the increased supply of anthracite in Russia was exported back to Ukraine. We provide suggestive evidence that Russian traders benefited from monopsony rents, buying low-priced anthracite from Donbas while Russia sold anthracite to Ukraine at prices comparable to other export markets. Overall, our findings highlight some of the economic and geographic features that may raise the cost and limit the efficacy of sanctions. |
| JEL: | F14 F51 Q43 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34097 |
| By: | Olga Bondarenko (National Bank of Ukraine) |
| Abstract: | I propose partial-equilibrium models that describe the dynamics of global wheat and corn markets. These models extend the classic competitive storage framework by incorporating nonstationary variables. They are calibrated using data from Ukraine and key importing and exporting countries. The models enable the endogenous estimation of price trends, based on the observed movements in the underlying variables. This framework provides insights into how involuntary reductions in Ukraine’s global market presence, triggered by russia’s invasion, could have affected trend prices. |
| Keywords: | commodity storage, trends, nonstationary models, numerical methods |
| JEL: | C32 C63 Q11 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ukb:wpaper:02/2025 |
| By: | Adam Geršl (Charles University); Pervin Dadashova (National Bank of Ukraine); Yuliya Bazhenova (National Bank of Ukraine); Anatolii Hlazunov (National Bank of Ukraine; Kyiv School of Economics); Danylo Krasovytskyi (National Bank of Ukraine; Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv) |
| Abstract: | This study introduces the financial cycle index as a means to identify the position of the Ukrainian economy in the financial cycle. The index encompasses 16 indicators aggregated into four subindices that capture cyclical systemic risks stemming from the immoderate debt burden of the private sector, the easing of lending conditions, excessive growth of real estate prices, and macroeconomic imbalances. This financial cycle measure can be used as one of a number of guidelines when making policy decisions on the use of countercyclical prudential instruments to prevent the accumulation of cyclical systemic risks and to stabilize the financial system in a timely manner. |
| Keywords: | financial cycle, credit-to-GDP gap, financial cycle index, countercyclical capital buffer |
| JEL: | E32 E51 E58 G01 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ukb:wpaper:01/2025 |
| By: | Quynh Huynh (Univsersity College London); Hyejin Ku (University College London) |
| Abstract: | We examine the relationship between economic development and female labor force participation, with a focus on the impact of gender norms. Analyzing quasi-random variation in provincial exports in reunified Vietnam from 2002 to 2018, we find that a positive economic shock led to a significant decline in women’s labor market engagement, particularly among married women from wealthier households and those with husbands in more skilled occupations. This trend is more pronounced in the South (formerly capitalist) than in the North (always socialist), and among native Southerners compared to Northerners relocated to the South after the war. Our findings highlight the importance of gender role attitudes in shaping women’s responses to rising incomes. |
| Keywords: | female labor force participation, social norms, gender role attitudes, income andsubstitution effects, trade liberalization |
| JEL: | J16 J22 O12 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2516 |
| By: | Arellano-Bover, Jaime (Yale University, IZA, CESifo); San, Shmuel (Hebrew University of Jerusalem) |
| Abstract: | We study how job mobility, firms, and firm-ladder climbing can shape immigrants’ labor market success. Our context is the mass migration of former Soviet Union Jews to Israel during the 1990s. Once in Israel, these immigrants faced none of the legal barriers that are typically posed by migration regulations around the world, offering a unique backdrop to study undistorted immigrants’ job mobility and resulting unconstrained assimilation. Rich administrative data allows us to follow immigrants for up to three decades after arrival. Differential sorting across firms and differential paysetting within firms both explain important shares of the initial immigrant-native wage gap and subsequent convergence dynamics. Moreover, immigrants are more mobile than natives and faster at climbing the firm ladder, even in the long term. As such, firm-to-firm mobility is a key driver of these immigrants’ long-run prosperity. Lastly, we quantify a previously undocumented job utility gap when accounting for non-wage amenities, which exacerbates immigrant-native disparities based on pay alone. |
| Keywords: | JEL Classification: |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:764 |
| By: | Khazan Bakhshaliyev (Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan); Vugar Ahmadov (Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan) |
| Abstract: | The balance between supply and demand influences inflation and understanding whether one factor predominates the other has significant implications for economic policy. Distinguishing the contributions of supply and demand factors to inflation offers insight into the primary drivers of inflation during economic shocks and is especially important for monetary policymaking. Decomposition serves as a tool for testing theoretical frameworks and enables policymakers and practitioners to monitor the factors contributing to inflation in real-time. In this context, the paper aims to decompose inflation into supply- and demand-driven components using an alternative micro-founded approach. It relies on a fundamental theory of price formation: the relationship between price and quantity, based on monthly data for 2, 559 goods sold in one of the largest supermarket chains in Azerbaijan from 2020 and 2025. For each item, a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model is estimated individually, resulting in 2, 559 SVAR models used to identify whether observed inflation is driven by demand or supply shocks. Preliminary findings from SVAR models highlight that demand is one of the main contributors to inflation, particularly in the post-COVID recovery period, which macro-founded models had previously underestimated. Consequently, this study contributes to the Central Bank of Azerbaijan by providing a tool to estimate the importance of demand-pulled inflation, helping policymakers stay ahead of the curve. |
| Keywords: | Supply and demand driven inflation; SVAR model; supermarket data |
| JEL: | E30 E31 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2025–08–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp12-2025 |
| By: | Schultze, Michelle |
| Abstract: | Kyrgyzstan serves as a key case study for the broader Central Asia–Russia labor pipeline, which supported an estimated 8 million migrants annually in 2020. Prior to the Russo-Ukraine war, remittances from Russia accounted for approximately 30% of Kyrgyzstan’s GDP, driven by over 10% of its population working in Russia. However, understanding wartime migration dynamics is challenging due to suspected political interference in Russian data, restricted foreign access to this data, and the informality that characterizes Central Asian migration patterns. This study incorporates Yandex Wordstat, Google Trends, XGBoost (which outperforms other machine learning methods), and autoregressive models to "nowcast" missing data. The results reveal a push effect linked to war onset in February 2022 and war intensity. However, all three of the analyzed migration datasets suggest a potential delayed labor substitution effect as Central Asian migrants fill vacancies left by conscripted Russian workers, proxied by casualty data from Mediazona and the BBC. The study also examines remittance trends, which seem to increase along with the labor substitution effect after a two-month lag. These results are robust to Russia- and Kyrgyzstan-side socioeconomic controls such as wage levels and population dynamics. This study provides new insight into the largely opaque Central Asia–Russia labor pipeline, a critical element in development policymaking for both regions. It also introduces a novel methodology for nowcasting migration trends, particularly through Yandex Wordstat, which has been largely overlooked in English-language scholarship. |
| Date: | 2025–07–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:z2wch_v1 |
| By: | Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Mardonova Tolibkhonovna, Mohru; Pechtl, Sarah; Teirlinck, Charlotte |
| Abstract: | Labor migration is generally motivated by the prospect of higher earnings abroad, and many migrants support their left-behind household members through remittances. Migrants’ long-term absence from home may, however, also affect intra-household dynamics among those remaining behind. Relying on primary qualitative data as well as quantitative data from 938 married women, we analyze empowerment impacts of migration on women in rural southern Tajikistan. Tajikistan is one of the most remittance-dependent countries in the world. A large share of young men migrates internationally, leaving behind – and often supporting – a multi-generational household. Yet, strong social norms limit the decision-making power and mobility of women, particularly of young women. Whereas senior women report noticeable differences when their spouses migrate, this is far less so for young women who live with their parents-in-law. Our study demonstrates that accounting for a respondent’s position within the household is key to understanding empowerment outcomes of its members. |
| Keywords: | migration; gender; households; women's empowerment; Tajikistan; Asia; Central Asia |
| Date: | 2025–07–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:175568 |
| By: | Sztandar-Sztanderska, Karolina |
| Abstract: | This article examines the capacity of frontline staff to oversee automated decision-making (ADM) systems, which are increasingly used in digital welfare states to make life-altering decisions. While prior research had focused on cognitive limitations that lead to human over-reliance on ADM, the role of contextual factors that also shape caseworkers’ supervisory activities has neither been conceptualised, nor systematically investigated. To address this gap, we develop an analytical framework for the context-sensitive study of frontline oversight, inspired by the street-level bureaucracy perspective and human–computer interaction studies. We also demonstrate the framework’s relevance through findings from a mixed-methods study of a profiling algorithm used by Public Employment Services in Poland. We identify four types of factors – policy-, organisation-, professionalism-, and technology-related – that effectively shape frontline oversight. Our findings also have practical implications, as the inclusion of humans in the decision-making loop is a central element of regulatory efforts aimed at protecting individuals from algorithmic harms. |
| Date: | 2025–07–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:56zcy_v1 |
| By: | Kosyakova, Yuliya (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Rother, Nina (BAMF-FZ); Zinn, Sabine (DIW); Bartig, Susanne (FU Berlin); Biddle, Louise (DIW); Büsche, Matteo Jacques (DIW); Cardozo Silva, Adriana (DIW); Cumming, Philippa (DIW); Eckhard, Jan (BAMF-FZ); Gatskova, Kseniia (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Koch, Theresa (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Kosyakova, Yuliya (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Marchitto, Andrea (DIW); Schwanhäuser, Silvia (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Siegert, Manuel (BAMD-FZ); Sommer, Elena (DIW); Süttmann, Felix (DIW); Tanis, Kerstin (BAMF-FZ); Rother, Nina (BAMD-FZ); Zinn, Sabine (DIW) |
| Abstract: | "Background to the study and data Basis: - The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a massive refugee movement since February 24, 2022, with mostly women and children fleeing to European countries, including Germany. Around one million people from Ukraine have now been living in Germany for some time. - A robust database is essential to gain a differentiated and well-founded understanding of the living situation of these people. High-quality, reliable data based on a carefully developed survey design are crucial to adequately analyze the challenges and needs of the refugees and to develop evidence-based measures. - The IAB-BAMF-SOEP survey meets these high standards. As an annual panel household survey, it has also included Ukrainian refugees since 2023, thus creating the basis for an empirically sound analysis of their realities of life. The study of two arrival cohorts (arrival from February to the end of May 2022 and arrival from June 2022) additionally allows for the analysis of changes in the composition of the group of Ukrainian refugees. - The survey, which took place between July 2023 and early January 2024, was conducted primarily face-to-face (77.2 percent of interviews), supplemented by computer-assisted self-interviews (CASI: 15.4 percent) and online interviews (CAWI: 7.4 percent). A total of 3, 403 individuals from 2, 219 households were interviewed. - The data includes both household and personal level information about living situation, language, employment situation, integration, and plans for remaining in Germany. Newcomers who were interviewed for the first time also answered a life history questionnaire. - Sampling and weighting procedures based on the AZR ensure that the data is representative of Ukrainian refugees during the survey period. - The IAB-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Refugees is a joint project of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), the Research Center of the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF-FZ), and the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) at DIW Berlin." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Ukraine ; Aufenthaltsdauer ; Ausbildungsabschluss ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; berufliche Integration ; Bildungsabschluss ; Bildungsbeteiligung ; Familienstand ; Geflüchtete ; Gesundheitszustand ; Herkunftsland ; Inanspruchnahme ; Kinderbetreuung ; Lebenssituation ; medizinische Versorgung ; Anerkennung ; Rückwanderungsbereitschaft ; Schulbesuch ; Sprachkenntnisse ; IAB-BAMF-SOEP-Befragung von Geflüchteten ; Wohnsituation ; Zukunftsperspektive ; 2023-2024 |
| Date: | 2025–08–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:202505(en) |
| By: | Bachev, Hrabrin |
| Abstract: | The goal of this article is to identify contemporary modes and factors of labor supply in Bulgarian farms. Interdisciplinary New Institutional Economics methodology is incorporated, and an analysis is made of new representative micro data collected from the managers of farms of different types and locations. There has been enormous development in labor supply governance in Bulgarian farms during the last two decades. Permanent employment is a major form of labor supply in farms, followed by seasonal and part-time employment. Owners and family members account for the largest share of the total workforce. Different forms are used (high recurrence of contracts with the same person, output-based compensation, use of service supply or input contracts, etc.) to reduce transaction costs of labor and overall governance of farms. The reasons for using employment contracts and the importance of different labor supply and governance modes, intensity of transactions, types of partners, and kinds of remuneration vary considerably depending on juridical type, size, specialization, and locations of holdings. The most important problems in hiring labor are the lack of labor in the labor market, the high price of hired labor, requirement to pay social payments, pay-holidays, etc., big turnover of workers, high costs for adapting official labor standards, high costs for controlling of hired labor (cheating, stealing, etc.), high costs for negotiating conditions of employment, high costs to find good workers, low qualification of hired labor, advance age of hired labor, requirement for signing a written contract, and insufficient initiatives of workers. For a significant number of Bulgarian farms, the costs for finding needed labor, and the amount of costs for managing the hired labor and workers in the farm are factors strongly restricting the development of their enterprise. The latter is particularly important for a good proportion of major commercial farms like cooperatives, physical persons, and corporations, to a lesser extent for sole traders. Other critical factors strongly restricting development of Bulgarian farms at present stage of development are: legislation and regulation environment in the country and sector, the amount of costs for finding needed lands and natural resources, amount of costs for finding needed short-term and long-term assets, amount of costs for finding needed finance for the farms, amount of costs for finding needed innovations, amount of costs for marketing of output, amount of costs for registration, certification, etc., existence of informal and gray sector in agriculture, and socio-economic situation in the region and in the country. |
| Keywords: | governance, labor supply, modes, costs, new institutional economics |
| JEL: | J0 L2 Q12 Q13 Q15 Q18 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125325 |
| By: | Melody Huang; Cory McCartan |
| Abstract: | To conduct causal inference in observational settings, researchers must rely on certain identifying assumptions. In practice, these assumptions are unlikely to hold exactly. This paper considers the bias of selection-on-observables, instrumental variables, and proximal inference estimates under violations of their identifying assumptions. We develop bias expressions for IV and proximal inference that show how violations of their respective assumptions are amplified by any unmeasured confounding in the outcome variable. We propose a set of sensitivity tools that quantify the sensitivity of different identification strategies, and an augmented bias contour plot visualizes the relationship between these strategies. We argue that the act of choosing an identification strategy implicitly expresses a belief about the degree of violations that must be present in alternative identification strategies. Even when researchers intend to conduct an IV or proximal analysis, a sensitivity analysis comparing different identification strategies can help to better understand the implications of each set of assumptions. Throughout, we compare the different approaches on a re-analysis of the impact of state surveillance on the incidence of protest in Communist Poland. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.23743 |
| By: | Felipe Saffie; Liliana Varela; Kei-Mu Yi |
| Abstract: | We study empirically and theoretically the effects of international financial flows on resource allocation. Using the universe of firms in Hungary, we show that removing capital controls lowers firms’ cost of capital and increases household consumption, with the latter playing a dominant role. The consumption channel leads to reallocation of resources toward high expenditure elasticity activities—such as services—promoting both the expansion of incumbents and firm entry. A multi-sector heterogeneous firm model replicates these dynamics. Our model shows that non-homotheticity in consumption can quantitatively account for the reallocation of resources towards services and successfully replicates the dynamics of aggregate productivity following episodes of financial openness. |
| Keywords: | firm dynamics; financial liberalization; reallocation; capital flows; TFP; non-homothetic preferences |
| JEL: | F15 F41 F43 F63 |
| Date: | 2025–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:101404 |