|
on Transition Economics |
| By: | Robayo, Monica; Lucchetti, Leonardo Ramiro; Delgado-Prieto, Lukas; Badiani-Magnusson, Reena |
| Abstract: | The surge in food prices following the 2021 economic rebound has become a significant concern for households, particularly low-income ones, in Bulgaria, Croatia, Poland, and Romania. Food price inflation, which surpasses general inflation rates, risks worsening poverty and food insecurity in these countries. This paper explores the distributional impacts of rising food prices and the effectiveness of government response measures. Low-income households, who allocate a larger share of their income to food, are disproportionately affected and are struggling to cope with unexpected expenses, leading to increased difficulties in accessing proper nutrition. Simulations indicate that rising food prices contribute to higher poverty rates and greater income inequality, especially among vulnerable populations. They also suggest that the main poverty-targeted social assistance schemes offer critical support for the extreme poor, but expanding both coverage and benefits is vital to shield all at-risk individuals. Targeted policies that balance immediate relief with long-term resilience-building are essential to addressing the challenges posed by escalating food prices. |
| Date: | 2025–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11159 |
| By: | Anna Drahozalova (Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the existing literature on exchange rate modelling by developing a new proxy for foreign exchange market imbalances. By utilizing the monetary presentation of the Balance of Payments we create a measure of net external flows and study its impact on the exchange rate. Focusing on the case of the Czech Republic, we account for the coexistence of fixed and floating exchange rate regimes by relying on the exchange market pressure (EMP) index. A vector autoregression model provides evidence of a causal relationship from net external flows to the EMP index. We find that a positive orthogonal shock to net external flows causes the Exchange rate to appreciate already in the short term with the effect peaking three months after the initial shock. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Exchange, Exchange Rates, Capital Flows |
| JEL: | F31 F32 F37 F41 G15 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2025_13 |
| By: | Giulia Aliprandi (EU Tax Observatory); Thijs Busschots (EU Tax Observatory); Carlos Oliveira (EU Tax Observatory) |
| Abstract: | This note examines the global prevalence and distribution of shell companies, which are often used for illicit financial activities like tax evasion. Using business registry data for over 200 jurisdictions, including individual US states, we construct an indicator of shell company prevalence based on the number of registered companies per capita. We find that known tax havens like the British Virgin Islands and the Cayman Islands have extremely high rates of company presence per adult. Zooming in on Europe reveals Estonia as a lesser-known host for shell companies, besides flagging known conduit countries like Luxembourg and Cyprus. A unique decomposition of US states also shows Delaware and Wyoming are potentially hosting a large number of shell companies. Indicative for the role of shell companies in international tax evasion, our shell company prevalence indicator correlates with jurisdiction characteristics catering tax evasion, such as low corporate tax rate and aggressive tax treaties. |
| Keywords: | Shell companies, tax evasion, business registries |
| JEL: | H26 K34 F38 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbp:plnote:009 |
| By: | Nitsova, Silviya (University of Manchester) |
| Abstract: | State capture by extremely wealthy elites is a widespread phenomenon in developing democracies, yet the mechanisms through which it works and the impact it has on political and policy outcomes remain poorly understood. I develop a network-based approach to studying captured institutions. Focusing on the national legislature and using social network and regression analyses of unique quantitative data and original interview-based evidence on the case of Ukraine (2014-2022), I demonstrate that oligarchs seek to defend their wealth by promoting as members of parliament individuals who are linked to them via interpersonal ties. The connections between oligarchs and legislators take the form of a highly fragmented, weakly connected, and decentralized network with distinct clusters, in which oligarchs occupy central positions, and influence the adoption of policies related to oligarchs' economic interests. The study has important implications for the scholarship on money in politics, oligarchy, state capture, political connections, neopatrimonialism, legislative politics, political parties, and political representation. |
| Date: | 2025–06–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:k27ez_v1 |
| By: | Xu, Lei (Loughborough University); Tani, Massimiliano (UNSW Canberra); Zhu, Yu (University of Dundee); Wen, Xin (UNSW Canberra) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of China’s 2014 hukou reform - a major change allowing migrants living in small and medium-sized cities of less than 5 million people to apply for urban residence - on formal and informal borrowing at a time of rapid economic transformation. We find that the hukou policy change has predominantly increased natives’ access to finance, especially through informal sources, and for investments in housing. We also find that the policy affects households differently according to education level, with more educated households borrowing more to capitalise on rising asset prices driven by the ‘additional’ urban population created by the policy. |
| Keywords: | formal and informal debt, hukou reform, migrants |
| JEL: | D14 G51 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17990 |
| By: | Eric Rougier (BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Matthieu Clément (BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); François Combarnous (BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Dominique Darbon (LAM - Les Afriques dans le monde - IEP Bordeaux - Sciences Po Bordeaux - Institut d'études politiques de Bordeaux - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Bordeaux - UBM - Université Bordeaux Montaigne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Over the past decade, much of the global middle class has become more vulnerable and disillusioned. Drawing on original qualitative surveys in Brazil, C & ocirc;te d'Ivoire, Turkey, and Vietnam, this paper reveals a persistent disconnect between middle-class expectations and government policy in the core domains of the social contract: public services, social protection, and participation. On the demand side, middle-class respondents report frustration with poor service provision-particularly in education, health, and security-and with tax systems, they perceive as burdensome yet unreciprocated. On the supply side, policymakers emphasize market access and credit expansion while retreating from broad-based public support, a pattern we term "laissez-faire paternalism." Despite their dissatisfaction, middle-class citizens often remain politically disengaged due to fragmentation and institutional barriers, producing a form of "truncated citizenship" in which they enjoy consumption rights but lack political influence. These findings challenge the assumption that middle-class growth naturally drives reform. Instead, we find a fragmented and politically instrumentalized group with limited capacity to press for change. By contrasting demand- and supply-side perceptions, the paper uncovers institutional blind spots and warns of rising frustration and instability if governance does not become more inclusive and responsive. |
| Keywords: | Brazil, Côte D'ivoire, Expectations, Middle class, Policy gap, Policy reforms, Political economy, Private and public sectors, Turkey, Vietnam |
| Date: | 2025–06–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05143928 |
| By: | Antoine Roger (CED - Centre Émile Durkheim - IEP Bordeaux - Sciences Po Bordeaux - Institut d'études politiques de Bordeaux - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Several multinational corporations engaged in the trading of agricultural commodities have been active in Romania for several decades. To explain this situation, international business studies put the emphasis on transaction costs and a series of variables that guide location choices. This line of reasoning fails to take proper account of local power relations. The notion of "field", as conceived by Pierre Bourdieu, offers an alternative. In Romania, multinational corporations contribute to the formation of an entrepreneurial field in which the issue at stake is the exercise of local symbolic power. Their ability to collect and store grain in the long term depends at the same time on this structural organisation. To account for this situation, we need to examine successive decollectivization measures and the resulting benefits for multinational corporations. After the fall of the Communist regime, agricultural entrepreneurs first took advantage of the restitution and redistribution of land to cultivate cereals and oilseeds over vast areas. All of them aim to export their products. However, they have difficulty in controlling this choice due to limited storage capacity. As a matter of fact, multinational corporations engaged in agricultural commodity trading took advantage of a second reform package and now control the main silos. Entrepreneurs looking to sell their crops have to deal with these constraints. Their approach depends on the capital they have at their disposal. This led to internal conflicts, the developments of which we have examined between 2010 and 2017. |
| Keywords: | Multinational Corporations, Traders, Intensive Agriculture, Romania, Field Theory |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-05129894 |
| By: | Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Mardonova Tolibkhonovna, Mohru; Pechtl, Sarah; Teirlinck, Charlotte |
| Abstract: | Labor migration is generally motivated by the prospect of higher earnings abroad, and many migrants support their left-behind household members through remittances. Migrants’ long-term absence from home may, however, also affect intra-household dynamics among those remaining behind. Relying on primary qualitative data as well as quantitative data from 938 married women, we analyze empowerment impacts of migration on women in rural southern Tajikistan. Tajikistan is one of the most remittance-dependent countries in the world. A large share of young men migrates internationally, leaving behind – and often supporting – a multi-generational household. Yet, strong social norms limit the decision-making power and mobility of women, particularly of young women. Whereas senior women report noticeable differences when their spouses migrate, this is far less so for young women who live with their parents-in-law. Our study demonstrates that accounting for a respondent’s position within the household is key to understanding empowerment outcomes of its members. |
| Keywords: | migration; gender; households; women's empowerment; Tajikistan; Asia; Central Asia |
| Date: | 2025–07–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:175568 |